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[Skumpy]

I endorse this

1: Red-Lift-B
2: Lift-B-A
3: Blue-Lift-C?

Whoever does too, stick to it. That's the best we can get at this point, unfortunately.

Wait what if people can't do this?

Then they don't.

Ok, seems easy for scum who don't want to do it to just say "I didn't have those cards" then.

I guess it's still net helpful even granted that scum have an easy out from following it?

I'm going to add to silver's comment and say even if you don't have those cards try to use the listed lift as best you can.
Because one of the major things this helps with is knowing when those players are using the lift...this allows a few extra players to make it to lower levels (i.e. player 4 can easily do so knowing when those lifts are in use).  So, if you don't have a "C" for instance, but can still go Blue-Lift...go ahead and do that.  You can do "B" and hope there's energy from someone else filling central late in phase 2.

Ok and there is no way to try to make sure say the 4th thrust 6th players also get down to the lower level? Or catch scum if they fail?

So I decided to simulate the odds of somebody being able to do everything and the results were, well, not as encouraging as I'd hoped. For the above 3 sets of instructions, the odds of a starting hand being able to successfully accomplish all 3 is only around 55%. Two important things I did not take into account however: 1st, there's some flexibility. If you can't use a C or A action, then it's not the end of the world; the important part is being able to use the correct lift, and ideally fill the red/central pool. Plus I think B is a viable alternative to C anyways, so that all would boost the percentage up certainly into at least the 60's. And secondly: those were the odds of somebody unable to do all 3. The odds of somebody being unable to do 1 specific set would then be about a 1/3 of that.

So in the end: I'd estimate there's a solid 75% all 3 people could do their task. Which is high enough that I'd be suspicious of anybody who claims they couldn't, at least not without a pre-warning like Theorel.

As for the next 3 players, it gives some info for what to do and what not to do. That's 3 lifts that would ideally be in use, so don't use a lift when it might be getting jammed. If a top 3 player couldn't use the appropriate at the assigned time, then I'd say wait a round or 2 before trying to lift to avoid jamming up people behind you. Think about how not to get jammed and think about how not to jam others, it ain't rocket science.

 Except it is rocket science...

[LaLight]

WV: Awaclus

[faust]

wasn;t deadline supposed to be in 2 hours before I got swapped in...where are yall

I read that we had another day and went to bed...

[faust]

mcmc, I'm glad you're here, but your reads are a ride on confirmation bias:

Then we get to the dirty science denying Lalaight, he struck me as scummy through out my read.

So I also think cheesy jelly is quite scummy as does most of town.

So here are two initial reads.

This really accurately shows scum!lalight and scum!cheesyjelly using town!faust mistaken d1 case as cover to push a lynch through on town!iguana. Iv'e rode many a misplaced town!faust wagon through to lynch as scum myself.

And then these reads are validated with seemingly unjustified townreads on me and iguana.

Ridiculous quick wagon on skumpy once faust left the iguana train as scum desperately tries to avoid the CJ lynch going through. The E wagon formed much more naturally, there could be something there to look at in future days, he is not striking me as towny as normal could be due to his low posts though.

As well as Skumpy. I think you're assuming that we are all town just to fit your narrative... and that's never a good thing.

[silverspawn]

I guess it's still net helpful even granted that scum have an easy out from following it?

It's not an easy out. The chance not to have cards is so low that not 'having' them is suspicious.

Ok and there is no way to try to make sure say the 4th thrust 6th players also get down to the lower level? Or catch scum if they fail?

I don't think more coordination is good because then scum knows exactly who is lower deck and who isn't.

[silverspawn]

Don't want to lynch LaLight or RR. I guess I'll be here for the deadline so we can see what we have the votes for.

[faust]

I guess it's still net helpful even granted that scum have an easy out from following it?

It's not an easy out. The chance not to have cards is so low that not 'having' them is suspicious.

Sounds more like an easy way to drive a mislynch than anything...

[Skumpy]

I guess it's still net helpful even granted that scum have an easy out from following it?

It's not an easy out. The chance not to have cards is so low that not 'having' them is suspicious.

Sounds more like an easy way to drive a mislynch than anything...

I still say people should've at least acknowledged a can or can't. Too late now, and if I'm alive for it, I probably won't be in a very forgiving mood. And faust: I know you take a lot of pride in your scumhunting ability, but for Pete's sake man, set aside your ego and work with the team. The case was already made why it doesn't matter that much if scum knows if the first 3 people got to the lower decks, and that's assuming people don't reveal actions D2. At best, what it prevents is possibly a N2 kill that might go through anyways. Alternatively, look at it as 3 people who reached the lower deck and are now in a decent position to help block the scum kill. I know this is falling on deaf ears, but I'll give it a shot anyways. Just don't blame me when everyone's getting stuck on lifts and can't even use powers because there's no energy left.

As for the wagons, CJ's not the towniest guy around, and I do admittedly have half the information, but it's starting to reek of a dual town wagon. There's no concern, no frantic movement, everybody seems content to just let the wagons ride out. Which naturally includes 4 scum. I'll look dumb when CJ ends up being scum...eh. I'll vote there if needed, but I agree with basically everybody else that there are better options. Such as RR.

In other news, anybody seen G13 around?

On the other hand, Awaclus never votes correctly.

That's a lie. Vote: Skumpy

Just wanted to requote it.
I'd put in my sig, but then faust will get mad at me.

[Skumpy]

BTW @faust: Why haven't you suspected me, like, at all this game? What have I done/not done that makes me very clearly town in your eyes?

[EFHW]

I do not have the right cards to be able to do the recommended actions.

[Haddock]

I don't like the CJ wagon or the RR wagon, but will vote either if necessary to get a lynch through.
ii was a reasonable case, what happened there?

I will weak visit CJ if he survives the day, and weak visit RR otherwise.

[faust]

BTW @faust: Why haven't you suspected me, like, at all this game? What have I done/not done that makes me very clearly town in your eyes?

Why should I suspect you?

[faust]

ii was a reasonable case, what happened there?

RR case was better.

But I am definitely willing to go back to iguana. Also *conspiracy theory mode* the reason iguana got excited about mcmc entering the game is because he was luckat's scumpartner.

[Skumpy]

BTW @faust: Why haven't you suspected me, like, at all this game? What have I done/not done that makes me very clearly town in your eyes?

Why should I suspect you?

Because I'm not sure if you not voting is a sign that you're scum knowing not to vote for me, despite me playing maybe a bit out of character, or a sign that you've figured out how to read me.

I do not have the right cards to be able to do the recommended actions.

See, that helps!

[CheesyJelly]

ii was a reasonable case, what happened there?

RR case was better.

But I am definitely willing to go back to iguana. Also *conspiracy theory mode* the reason iguana got excited about mcmc entering the game is because he was luckat's scumpartner.

You might be half-joking there, but it makes a lot of sense.  I'd be pretty ticked off if my scumpartner was AWOL.

Vote: iguanaiguana

To be clear, that's not the entire basis of my vote.  I'm not doing great at communicating all of my thoughts and feelings this game, but I'm still scumreading ii from earlier.

Skumpy is my reserve WV if ii doesn't last the day.

[iguanaiguana]

I guess it's still net helpful even granted that scum have an easy out from following it?

It's not an easy out. The chance not to have cards is so low that not 'having' them is suspicious.

Sounds more like an easy way to drive a mislynch than anything...

Agree

[iguanaiguana]

The other stuff you said, not so agree. More later.

[iguanaiguana]

To be more clear, I'm going to work. I want to respond when I get off. If all are gonna lynch me, at east give me the chance to say my I told you so speech to Faust because I really enjoy that sort of thing.

[mcmcsalot]

mcmc, I'm glad you're here, but your reads are a ride on confirmation bias:

Then we get to the dirty science denying Lalaight, he struck me as scummy through out my read.

So I also think cheesy jelly is quite scummy as does most of town.

So here are two initial reads.

This really accurately shows scum!lalight and scum!cheesyjelly using town!faust mistaken d1 case as cover to push a lynch through on town!iguana. Iv'e rode many a misplaced town!faust wagon through to lynch as scum myself.

And then these reads are validated with seemingly unjustified townreads on me and iguana.

Ridiculous quick wagon on skumpy once faust left the iguana train as scum desperately tries to avoid the CJ lynch going through. The E wagon formed much more naturally, there could be something there to look at in future days, he is not striking me as towny as normal could be due to his low posts though.

As well as Skumpy. I think you're assuming that we are all town just to fit your narrative... and that's never a good thing.

I am not assuming you are all town to fit my narrative, it's not the easiest to flesh out all my reads nor is it super necessary when I join the game 24 hours before deadline. I have a strong town read on you faust, as I did in smash bros, I also townread skumpy and I think Iguana's wagon formed in a very opportunistic way, so I think its likely a town wagon started by a town member that scum jumped on. Specifically the way lalight and cj's votes have moved make my belive they are scum alongside the decent cases other people have made on them.

large snip
As for the wagons, CJ's not the towniest guy around, and I do admittedly have half the information, but it's starting to reek of a dual town wagon. There's no concern, no frantic movement, everybody seems content to just let the wagons ride out. Which naturally includes 4 scum. I'll look dumb when CJ ends up being scum...eh. I'll vote there if needed, but I agree with basically everybody else that there are better options. Such as RR.

I don't think this is true, gonna get some data to back it up but if I am correct as I think I am, cheesy has been the dominant wagon amidst attempts to jump back to iguana (whos wagon was first), over to roadrunner, and finally to you. So scum is not happy settling on cheesy, remember there is four scum so they can make up half of a wagon themselves, obviously they don't want to but there haven't been tons of I would vote cj but comments which I would expect from scum waiting to hop on a town wagon.

[faust]

Why can't we just lynch RR? Noone townreads him, a bunch of people scumread him, he has done not a single pro-town thing this game, noone will miss him.

[faust]

Also he's just disappeared hoping that people will forget about him. He is now eligible to prod, and you all know how much I love prodding people...

Request prod on RR

[SpaceAnemone]

Vote Count 1.7

CheesyJelly (5): theorel, 2.71828....., EFHW, gkrieg13, silverspawn
Roadrunner7671 (2): faust, Skumpy
Skumpy (3): Awaclus, LaLight, Roadrunner7671
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
iguanaiguana (1): CheesyJelly
Not Voting (2): mcmcsalot, Haddock

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.
D1 ends at 17.30 forum time on Tuesday 30th January.

RR has now been prodded.

[theorel]

...

large snip
As for the wagons, CJ's not the towniest guy around, and I do admittedly have half the information, but it's starting to reek of a dual town wagon. There's no concern, no frantic movement, everybody seems content to just let the wagons ride out. Which naturally includes 4 scum. I'll look dumb when CJ ends up being scum...eh. I'll vote there if needed, but I agree with basically everybody else that there are better options. Such as RR.

I don't think this is true, gonna get some data to back it up but if I am correct as I think I am, cheesy has been the dominant wagon amidst attempts to jump back to iguana (whos wagon was first), over to roadrunner, and finally to you. So scum is not happy settling on cheesy, remember there is four scum so they can make up half of a wagon themselves, obviously they don't want to but there haven't been tons of I would vote cj but comments which I would expect from scum waiting to hop on a town wagon.

I'm looking forward to seeing that information.  I think it's worthwhile also seeing how the attempted RR-wagon has gone.  At this moment, it looks like the RR wagon has had a harder time building than the CJ wagon, with maybe even more people claiming he's scummy.  Anyways, if so it might be a strong argument for RR being scum as well.

[mcmcsalot]

Votes: Strikeouts are peoples old votes, parentheses are new votes, each new set of votes starts where the last one left off and tracks all votes and I have broken them out to show significant wagon changes.

Peak Iguana at 5, topped off by CJ's scummy vote which begins his wagon
Haddock (2): Roadrunner7671, theorel
iguanaiguana (5): faust, silverspawn, gkrieg13, LaLight, cheesyjelly
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
silverspawn (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): 2.71828.....
Not Voting (4): Haddock, Luckat, EFHW, Skumpy


Iguana down to 4, cheesy up to 5 from none from the same prior wagon
Haddock (2): Roadrunner7671, theorel
iguanaiguana (5): faust, silverspawn, gkrieg13, LaLight, cheesyjelly
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
silverspawn (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): 2.71828.....
Skumpy (1): Haddock
CheesyJelly (0): (silverspawn), (skumpy), (theorel), (2.71828.....), (EFWH)
Not Voting (3): Luckat, EFHW, Skumpy


E begins to gain traction interesting move from silver cutting the cj wagon he started once it hit 5. Skumpy jumps ship as well which seems to start off his wagon. Hmm interesting it is many of my town reads doing the vote moving and preventing their own wagon creations from gaining steam into the 6/7 range. Faust even dropped the iguana wagon to rr but he had been on that long enough I find it towny.
Haddock (1): Roadrunner7671
iguanaiguana (4): faust, gkrieg13, LaLight, cheesyjelly
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
silverspawn (1): Awaclus
Skumpy (1): Haddock
CheesyJelly (5): silverspawn, skumpy, theorel, 2.71828....., EFWH
2.71828..... (0): (silverspawn), (Awaclus), (Skumpy)
Roadrunner7671 (0): (faust)
Not Voting (1): Luckat


Skumpy wagon begins most likely due to his move to E note all three votes came within 20 min of eachother though all from separate wagons.
Haddock (1): Roadrunner7671
iguanaiguana (3): gkrieg13, LaLight, cheesyjelly
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
Skumpy (1): Haddock, (Awaclus), (LaLight), (Roadrunner7671)
CheesyJelly (3): theorel, 2.71828....., EFWH
2.71828..... (3): silverspawn, Awaclus, Skumpy
Roadrunner7671 (1): faust
Not Voting (1): Luckat


Gkrieg restarts the cj wagon let see who storms back and if it feels townie or scummy. Skumpy goes to RR I think he finds faust townie, I get the RR wagon, CJ moves to Skumpy, while he is at 4 himself clearly out of self preservation, silverspawn sees this and moves to CJ matching the wagons at 5. Interesting note here, the iguana votes have now all gone away, truly truly looks like a wagon that was on town that scum didn't want to commit more than 2 votes to early. Iguana himself moves to CJ giving us our biggest wagon ever.
iguanaiguana (2): gkrieg13, cheesyjelly
LaLight (1): iguanaiguana
Skumpy (4): Haddock, Awaclus, LaLight, Roadrunner7671, (cheesyjelly)
CheesyJelly (3): theorel, 2.71828....., EFWH, (gkrieg13), (silverspawn), (iguanaiguana)
2.71828..... (2): silverspawn, Skumpy
Roadrunner7671 (1): faust, (Skumpy)
Not Voting (1): Luckat


Haddock's super old vote on skumpy drops off it was artificially inflating the count hence why I think some of the later votes in that wagon are scummy, easy to use a lurker vote to inflate a wagon. This is where I join and make my lalight case as well as reference my scum read on CJ. Iguana votes lalight based on that saying he has felt similarly. Cheesy has move to Iguana saying he will go back if needed, self preservation but at this point town is expected to do the same, however going back to iguana feels like a last ditch effort to revitalize the earlier wagon as he feels skumpy wont get lynched, haddock dropping off made it much harder for his scummates to force the wagon on to skumpy in a last minute scramble.
Skumpy (5): Haddock, Awaclus, LaLight, Roadrunner7671, cheesyjelly
CheesyJelly (6): theorel, 2.71828....., EFWH, gkrieg13, silverspawn, iguanaiguana
Roadrunner7671 (1): faust, Skumpy
Lalight (0): (iguanaiguana)
Iguanaiguana (0): (cheesyjelly)
Not Voting (1): Luckat, (Haddock)

PPE: Space has posted where we are at now! More thoughts soon gotta do some work.

[mcmcsalot]

Thoughts:

CJ has had the same group of people voting and suspecting him the entire time. silverspawn, skumpy, theorel, 2.71828....., EFWH, the "joiners" would be gkrieg, iguana, and myself even though I haven't voted, and Silver, skumpy, and iguana have dabbled in other wagons. Interesting to note silver and gkrieg were also on the iguana wagon together, as were cheesy and lalight who are now on the skumpy wagon. This is where my general town read of silver and gkreig vs my general scum read of lalight and cj based on non vote movements lean me towards finding the skumpy wagon scum driven and the cj wagon town driven.

The roadrunner wagon has gone nowhere and has really just been faust sitting on him because rr defended iguana baselessly and if one belives iguana is scum rr follows. Again the fact that the iguana wagon shot up but the RR wagon hasn't gone anywhere lends to the idea that scum liked the iguana wagon and doesn't want to waste time driving up a roadrunner wagon now that they have committed to skumpy.

vote: CheesyJelly L-2

Would still love to get Theorel, EFHW, 2.7 and Gkreigs opinions of my lalaight case.