OK, so here are my thoughts:
we have one scum.
Either it's one of ash or mix, or it's not. It feels to me that I'm not the only one here who is skeptical of lynching them both, i.e suspecting ti could be one of the "bloc". Otherwise we'd have done that. In fact, we should have dome it yesterday, and I blame myself for accepting the yuma wagon and hammering there. That was a big mistake.
But I suspect it wasn't just that - I suspect it was Swan purposefully steering us that way. Because he knows that if he could get rid of yuma first, it'd be easier to convince us to finish with two lynches of ash and mix. i.e if we go the other way, and first lynch ash and mix and they are both town, then he may in fact not get us to go yuma at Lylo.
What's my evidence?
well, first the above that I really don't understand why he was so strong to not want to lynch ash or mix. It wasn't a I prefer yuma, it was an "I won't vote for ash or mix".
if I am forced to every lynch between MiX and Ash my mind is made on who it is. I will not be lynching either today.
I mean, what? I get having a strong preference, but there was enough evidence against any of the three. So why so definitive?
Again, because of the above. Get yuma out of the way first and then the ash/mix sell is easy. There was even a secret plan. Biut what was it?
Essentially it prevents a situation from occurring where we get a counter claim in Mylo/Lylo. Here is just an example:
I am, as I have been since Day 4, essentially certain that ASH is the UB here. If not, then I wrong whatever, but there are only 2 remaining people it can be at this point. If we claim today, we GTD that even with a CC Town wins the game. We cannot do that if we wait past today.
The main part of the plan was to have Yuma claim at L-1. If they claimed UB and there was a CC, we lynch Yuma and win either way. Apologies for the plan not being like crazy or anything, but obviously the main idea was to follow skum read on the last day we could afford to on a player that could still fake (or not fake) claim the UB option, thus potentially creating a safe CC situation for us.
Today's fall back plan was always just to claim because it makes no sense not to.
ppe dylan
To have Yuma claim UB? But he was convinced Ash was UB. So why not do the same thing with Ash or MiX, instead? With Ash we'd get the real claim, and have yet one more IC. Or if he's scum, the same plan fits.
Also, I believe he is has been one of those saying "only Ash or Mix" would do this no NK. This really sounds like framing them. I mean the first night, as was argued by MiX actually did make sense for a no NK from scum, and we should have followed through. We didn't because people seemed like it would be a stalemate. But really having an even number of people during the day seems advantageous to scum.
On that note, I'd be fine with a no lynch today again; let's force scum's hand. They no nk, we no lynch. Who cares if it's boring? At some point the mod will have to step in.
Now it could be that it is just one of ash or mix after all (in that I lean towards it being ash). But if it, you know what, that's a little boring, even if we win. But lynching scum!Swan who has secretly been toying with us all game? That to me sounds exciting.
Let's not forget that after D1, Swan wanted us to lynch Dylan vs Raptor. He's the one that led the lynch on LaLight (again when ash and mix were better targets). And then again on Yuma.
Swan, I'm on to you.
Here's my last piece of evidence. Read directly, it seemed at first like townslip... but read another way, it's ingenious:
Post #272
To someone who's played with him, does MiX usually jump his vote around like this?
Of the two wagons, I like Vote: WCD more than LL at this point.
elaborate on why?
OMGUS voting Lalight... has nothing to do with reactions.
Vote: LaLight
vote: Lalight
If that is the choice vote: LaLight
What is there to like about that wagon?
I read lalight and got zero town vibes, or rather no vibes. I'll be honest this game is weird and scumhuntimg is hard. So I am town hunting. Lalight doesn't seem townie.
Yep I agree that LL is scummier than WCD
... then why you on didds?
Because I was on didds from earlier on. And don't like putting people on L2
So wait just clarifying. That was not sarcasm? You think LL is more likely skum than WCD, with 15 hours to DL, and you are voting for the person you find to be more likely skum... bc you were on them already and don’t like putting people at L2?
That is just giving yourself an open door to vote for whoever you want with essentially no reason at all.
Vote: Dylan
Post #272:
Vote: Joseph
Got the players mixed up.
Here he want's us to think that he got the players mixed up? Why? Because scum!Dylan would know Joseph was scum, and not mix them up, but town!Dylan could easily make this mistake. So we read this and subconsciously think he's town.
Well, there's my case? Anyone with me?
(I have Cinco de Mayo dinner plans, but I'll be interested to see what every makes of these arguments some time later tonight.)