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[Robz888]

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

Why tho. What is the ironclad rule of the university determining that.

[Robz888]

Mail-mi's two recent statements are super duper scummy. They sound like made up opinions based on nothing.

[yuma]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

I get where you are coming from but the same conditions apply to yourself... I would suggest even more so to you as you are Night killed even more often than I am. And to shraeye to an extent... I survive throughout a game as town a lot more often than people seem to realize... especially when I am wrong in my reads (See Pirates and Bankers and Harry Potter, although I was less wrong in that last game, but no one was really wrong there...)

Ultimately I think I am alive because scum understands that the longer I am left alive the better chance I have of being a mislynch down the road... especially with a handful of people already suspecting me. That I kinda think that scum may have been gunning for each other during this last night... hence the targets on lurkers (note lurkers that had really received no high amounts of suspicion throughout either day)

[mail-mi]

Mail-mi's two recent statements are super duper scummy. They sound like made up opinions based on nothing.

Well, I also had scum reads on both of you before a little. And why is going to bed scummy?

[nkirbit]

Mail-mi's two recent statements are super duper scummy. They sound like made up opinions based on nothing.

Well, I also had scum reads on both of you before a little. And why is going to bed scummy?

Perhaps he was talking about the parts of the post that actually related to the mafia game, rather than those that didn't.

[shraeye]

However... I have to bring up my big concerns about yuma. Basically, it boils down to this: Yuma is still alive. And yuma is, without a doubt, the best scumhunter left in this game (he is arguably the best town player overall in my view). Most of the time, he is taken out at some point, because scum fear his awesome scumhunting abilities. And often when he DOES survive day after day, it's because he's scum. See Mean Girls and Deep Space Nine for examples of this (XIX and... XXV? My memory IS starting to fade on the numbers, unfortunately).

There are of course counter examples to this, and you know, maybe scum had higher priorities. (Certainly shooting UoS Day 1 was a big one). But, like, a bunch of scum decided to kill harmless lurkers Eevee and Jorbles, over yuma? Is that not a sign that yuma is himself scum?

This is exactly the same worry I was having.  If I'm scum, I'm taking out the town-leadingest voices first.  But there are two teams, so for yuma to be town, TWO teams had to have not wanted to kill him.  There obviously is incentive for the non-yuma team to shoot at him, so this line of reasoning leads me to suspect...well now that I think about it pretty much everyone but Robz.  I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

[shraeye]

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

I don't like that liopoil's flip didn't make you reassess anything.  Just immediately roll onto the other people who were suspected.

I just reread mail-mi's day2 contributions which at first glance were basically being a willing vote behind either nkirbit or liopoil.  I think his post were he voted for liopoil is just sooo full of vagueness.

Okay liopoil reread. I will not put anything here unless it really jumps out at me.

1. Eeveen after his V/LA he was lurking throughout D1. To busy posting in his scum QT, maybe?

2. Extending theorel talk into D2. That's suspicion on him and robz.

3. Posts a case on Robz that a lot of people seem to be following/voting for robz. Exception above, I actually think robz is on the town side of things.

yeah, and his last stretch of posts seem pretty scummy. I'll vote liopoil.

He was lurking, he talked theory, he made a case that people followed, he had a stretch of scummy posts.

This could literally be said about anybody, since there's no reference to exactly which posts were found scummy, or anything that anybody could defend against.

[shraeye]

We do have some decisions to make. Let me stress that these conversations have to be very careful. Don't reveal stuff.

So, we have not yet had three night kills. Of course a few things could have caused this.

Scum overlap.
Scum/vig overlap.
Role blocking.
Vig not shooting (something I would argue was at least correct on night 1)

There's also the possibility that somebody shot the SK, who has 1-bulletproof, and that is a missing kill.

But I think we have to follow yuma's note here

Right now I am assuming the worst that we have three scum still alive. I think everyone else should just do the same to play on the safe side.

and just assume the worst until we get more info via a flip.  We are potentially very close to some endgame scenario, and it would be a mistake not to recognize that.

[yuma]

I want to reread nkirbit's scumQT from Clue, but I remember them night-killing me because of how much I suspected them; possibly Eevee/Jorbles had put a lot of suspicion on nkirbit?  If I don't get around to rereading that QT, I really hope somebody with more time can follow that lead.

This line of thought actually makes me less suspicious of nkirbit... somewhat.... I mean coming out of day2 he is still my top scum read prior to reassessing the information based on my read from day2, but this thought does stand out at first glance. Because all of Robz, voltaire and I had nkirbit pretty high on our scum reads. Thus if nkirbit is mafia he has to decide that he wants to kill elsewhere (jorbles or eevee, who didn't have a scum read on him at all... both I am pretty sure were basically null on him) over one of us to alleviate that (especially voltaire and me).

Granted that line of thought could be what nkirbit wanted us to think, but I think it is the riskier line to walk. Taking out someone who is suspicious of you is generally pretty standard play and is often the safer play because changing people's minds in this game can be difficult (we are all so stubborn!)

So I think I agree with whomever it was that said the night kills were likely dictated by players who wanted to maintain the status quo of people being suspicious of nkirbit and robz. Those two players received far more suspicion than any other player day2, myself included, although I would probably put myself third on that list. (compared to the other three players shraeye, mail-mi and voltaire). So basically I am thinking that looking at those three (who if the status quo were continued would have less suspicion than the others) might be my top priority for rereads...

[Robz888]

Yeah, I was thinking the same, about nkirbit. When I said yesterday that I would be looking hard at nkirbit today if lio flipped town, I was basically bluffing. I mean, I am still suspicious of nkirbit, but the fact that everyone wanting him out hard is still around is mitigating in a non-trivial way. And then mail-mi came in and basically said the exact thing I would expect scum to say.

Big suspects from Yesterday: Robz and Nk. I have a very hard time believing that both of them are town. I should reread them.

Especially because of the way he phrased it. It wasn't, "These are the people I suspect." It was just very leading. Like he wants to remind us about these people--and then push the cases, so long as it meets no resistance.

[Robz888]

Now, mail-mi is always scummy, and very often scum, and this colors my perception of him. He is certainly no less scummy than usual here.

[Robz888]

So... little... talking.

[nkirbit]

I'm unfortunately very busy at the moment, and will be until next week, most likely :/.  I don't think I'll have the time to go back and do major re-reads.

The person I'm most suspicious of at the moment is Shraeye.  Seriously, that dude never agrees with me when he's town, never.  He's also a very strong town player who was out of the spotlight entirely day1 and day2... were he town, I think he would be a good NK target, since it looked like he wasn't likely to get lynched, probably less likely than anyone else.

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

[Robz888]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

[yuma]

I did say I wanted to look really hard at nkirbit today, who was my other big suspect yesterday, and is still alive.

Yeah, I was thinking the same, about nkirbit. When I said yesterday that I would be looking hard at nkirbit today if lio flipped town, I was basically bluffing.

I find these two quotes to be compelling when placed next to each other.

First Robz says he said yesterday that he said day2 he wanted to look hard a nkirbit if he is still alive (no mention of a bluff)

But then later he comes out and says that it was actually a bluff...

Seems like it was more a matter of convenience for when he said his intentions on nkirbit were a bluff...

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

Fair enough I guess.

I am second most on your radar? Where is this coming from?

Claiming I think I am against. I doubt I will be able to believe anyone's claim... or rather I don't think it will influence how I feel about someone. If I think they are scum I think a claim will make me find them more scummy. If I think they are town I think a claim will likely solidify that.... maybe. It actually might make me find them more scummy to be honest.

I have already brought up a query about nkirbit and I guess I just don't completely understand why you think scum!shraeye wouldn't be capable of making a case on voltgloss in a way that town!shraeye would.

Mail-mi? Your guess is as good as mine. I know that if I were scum and if he were town, he would be the person I would be gunning for a lynch and would have kept alive... See Mean Girls... so there is that to consider.

I think mostly everyone feels like they can't really comment on stuff until they have done a reread... which has some validity to it. But also something of a fallacy. I'll call it the "Jimmm fallacy" in that his gut read based off memory was pretty good in the CLUE game (a reread kinda solidified it) but ultimately led to him not being able to make a decision--or would have been making a rushed decision not feeling informed if he had come online at a crucial moment).  So basically I guess I am saying to people that rereading is nice--I am certainly going to try and do it--but not absolutely crucial or necessary to make informed posts and reads and cases.

[shraeye]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

I need to reread mail-mi, but my sorting of suspicious people after lio's flip and seeing the nightkills definitely has mail-mi and yuma looking more suspicious.

[Robz888]

I did say I wanted to look really hard at nkirbit today, who was my other big suspect yesterday, and is still alive.

Yeah, I was thinking the same, about nkirbit. When I said yesterday that I would be looking hard at nkirbit today if lio flipped town, I was basically bluffing.

I find these two quotes to be compelling when placed next to each other.

First Robz says he said yesterday that he said day2 he wanted to look hard a nkirbit if he is still alive (no mention of a bluff)

But then later he comes out and says that it was actually a bluff...

Seems like it was more a matter of convenience for when he said his intentions on nkirbit were a bluff...

I just said that to be consistent.

[shraeye]

Shraeye said this about my Lio case yesterday:  "I agree with this a lot."  Town!Shraeye hardly ever agrees with anything I say (perhaps never?  I can't think of anything at the moment.)  The only other time I remember him liking a case of mine was my case on Xeiron in Innovation, where I was heavily pushing for a mislynch of Xeiron and scum!Shraeye was agreeing with some of the things that I was saying.  I wonder if this isn't a repeat of that scenario.

The person I'm most suspicious of at the moment is Shraeye.  Seriously, that dude never agrees with me when he's town, never.  He's also a very strong town player who was out of the spotlight entirely day1 and day2... were he town, I think he would be a good NK target, since it looked like he wasn't likely to get lynched, probably less likely than anyone else.

So twice nkirbit has beaten this drum, and I figured out what is bollocks about this argument.

Me and nkirbit have played together only twice before...In Innovation, I was scum and he was town; I agreed with him at times there, but also won the game lynching AHoppy while calling nkirbit as his partner.

In clue, I was town and he was scum; in that game I instantly got a scumread on him and was wanting nkirbit lynches for almost all of day1.  I was nightkilled N1 for this.  Naturally, in my stubborn way, i didn't agree with him ALLLLL game. wowie, great case here nkirbit.


So drawing upon allll of his "how does townshraeye act?" experience of a single game, nkirbit sees that I never agree with him when I'm town.

[Robz888]

I agree that nkirbit's argument is wrong, I just don't think it's a scum argument.

[shraeye]

Eh, and now I'm remembering that nkirbit/Voltaire had a link in my mind.  Voltaire was pretty defenseive of nkirbit early in the game.  Volt also got paranoid and wanted me to clarify my scumreads because I had called him nkirbit's partner back on day1. 

[shraeye]

hmmmm, but Voltaire was pretty sold on the nkirbit lynch yesterday...scratch taht.

[yuma]

So... little... talking.

Well most of the rest of us were pretty involved with some crazy stuff in another game.

What is your excuse? Or rather, what have you done to increase the amount of talking except to note that we aren't?

Uh, I think I've brought up a lot of stuff. I want to know what other people think about claiming. I would love to get some reaction to my contention that mail-mi is scum. And also my suspicion of you, which is less than my suspicion of mail-mi but certainly second most. I've come to shraeye's defense and sort of backed off nkirbit with reason.

I need to reread mail-mi, but my sorting of suspicious people after lio's flip and seeing the nightkills definitely has mail-mi and yuma looking more suspicious.

Once again I am asking why?

I mean really? Why? Is it just based off the idea that I wasn't night killed and thus must be mafia? Is that your whole argument. Because if so it misses a crucial piece. That mafia knows this. I do have an established meta where if I am not dead by day3 I am scum. But it isn't an accurate meta. And it is a meta that favors scum tremendously when I am town. All they have to do to get me mislynched on day3 (and at a likely critical juncture) is to keep me alive...

[shraeye]

So?  I've voted for 3 people today, (Robz, Yuma, Liopoil), and accused a fourth (Voltaire), although Voltaire is obviously dependent on Lio's flip.  At least one of these is town, and probably more, but I don't think that I should have to say something like, "Oh, wait, I've been suspicious of three people today, I guess I'm going to hold back on my next suspicion."

Keep in mind, when I'm voting someone, I'm not saying, "I 100% think this person is scum!"  All I'm saying is, "I think there's a good chance this person is scum!"  So me being suspicious of more than 3 people doesn't mean I think there are 4 scum.

So how do you feel about voltaire now that you've seen liio's flip?