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[LaLight]

I also pretty much hoped that Galz would come up and say, "hey I'm not dead awesome also X is scum"

[Uncleeurope]

And to be clear, I don’t scumread you for the aggressive voting.

That detail at least is a slightly more town trait in my opinion. Not to say I fully believe you to be town, just saying that that specific detail is not a scum tell.

[SpaceAnemone]

Then doing what you said and rejecting further, we get this:
Expected values:
   Town: 13.0
   Alien: 2.58
   Mafia: 3.12
   Werewolf: 2.95
   Cult: 0.47
   SerialKiller: 0.47
   Lyncher: 0.23
   Survivor: 0.19

Yes, the Alien number jumps up a bit, making a third somewhat likely. Keep in min, if only 2+ Alien games are allowed then of course the expected number of Aliens will be above 2. And then everything else falls a little, that too is to be expected.

Well quite, Also keep in mind that by averaging over the games with only one alien in your initial sampling, you were artificially deflating the number by considering impossible rolls :-P

Also, are all your accepted games consistent with the four N1 NKs?

Really sorry for being a back-seat stats driver here! I really should code up an independent version to check you for weird scummy assumptions, but my weekend ended up being subtly stolen by a journal paper rebuttal :-(

[Joseph2302]

I've caught up now
And I think based on faust's willingness to claim that it's more likely that there are 3 scum, as he knew losing 1 alien wouldn't be so bad

If the expected number is 2.54, that means 3 is slightly more likely than 2 anyway, based only on the maths. And the actual game makes me more sure that there are more aliens

[Joseph2302]

Most important thing is there are about 6 mafia/WW that we desperately need to start killing. Because they can drain the town pool at 2 per day

[Joseph2302]

2 per night* (of course assuming they don't hit each other)

[Joseph2302]

And 1 WW is dead N1, so I guess there's around 5 more to get rid of

[Joseph2302]

And we have 5 town dead, so only around 8 town left

[Joseph2302]

These are not great odds. We need to hope WW and mafia start killing each other

[Brightgalrs]

Also, are all your accepted games consistent with the four N1 NKs?

Yep. Although, three....
Filtering the games to have at least 1 vigilante or one-shot vigilante shouldn't affect the final results, since it's summarized by alignment.
But then again, maybe it should and it might. All the other filters are "factual".

I've caught up now
And I think based on faust's willingness to claim that it's more likely that there are 3 scum, as he knew losing 1 alien wouldn't be so bad

If the expected number is 2.54, that means 3 is slightly more likely than 2 anyway, based only on the maths. And the actual game makes me more sure that there are more aliens

Despite what I said on Day 2, and despite what the numbers say, I really don't think there is a 3rd Alien.
Looking back to Day 2 with hindsight, MiX seemed somewhat intent on convincing people to not immediately lynch faust. And keep in mind that faust ended up as the Alien Sympathizer, which has no ability. Why would MiX stick their neck out so much like that if they had a third faction member?

This is sort of related, so I'll say it here: Over Night 2 I started suspecting Galzria might be a second/third Alien posing as a power role. He would've given up faust, their weakest member, to confirm themself town. But again, this suspicion doesn't add up with MiX being an Alien and sticking their neck out. That plan would've been planned out over Night 1, MiX would've known about it. Why even try defending faust if them getting lynched is part of the plan? You'd immediately join the lynchwagon, wouldn't you? And I bring this up because Galzria could've been the Bulletproof Alien Lover, explaining the missing kill last night and explaining why he isn't dead. But again, it doesn't make sense with MiX turning up as Alien. And it's much more likely that e used his one-shot doctor on Gal.

Also, my vote stands on LaLight. Reminder that it'll be a No Lynch on Friday.

[Brightgalrs]

Oh ignore those past expected values. I had it only rejecting games if the total number of scum was less than 3 (corresponding to the 3 scum night kills). And that basically never happened.

Fixing that problem and doing as Space says and making it 4 kills (and then also taking into consideration all roles that can materialize a night kill, like vigilantes, PGOs, parrots), we get these numbers, final answer:

Expected values (roles):
   Town: 12.83
   Mafia: 2.93
   Werewolf: 2.73
   Alien: 2.51
   SerialKiller: 1.17
   Lyncher: 0.21
   Cult: 0.45
   Survivor: 0.17

890,891 rejected out of 1,000,000 trials.

Serial killer benefited greatly from my error.

[WestCoastDidds]

I feel well and thoroughly stalled. I don’t have much of sense of how to get going again and the game is still so big it feels overwhelming. Halp!

[pubby]

I don't have much idea either.

vote: joseph

[Joseph2302]

I don't have much idea either.

vote: joseph

Clearly not with a vote like that

[SpaceAnemone]

Filtering the games to have at least 1 vigilante or one-shot vigilante shouldn't affect the final results, since it's summarized by alignment.
But then again, maybe it should and it might. All the other filters are "factual".

It most certainly should, and I think you've discovered for yourself why I was suspicious.

Serial killer benefited greatly from my error.

Yup, nailed it. I was most puzzled by how unlikely the existence of an SK player was under your previous distributions, given that we saw four kills happen on the first night. Something seemed off.

What's your maximum likelihood belief as to where the kills all came from?

@everyone else, what's your read/theory/wild conjecture about what factions or players might've wanted to kill which of our victims?

[SpaceAnemone]

I feel well and thoroughly stalled. I don’t have much of sense of how to get going again and the game is still so big it feels overwhelming. Halp!

It does feel very stally. I was sort of dreading coming in here this evening, expecting another hundred or more posts to catch up on. I was feeling fine this morning, but I've had a worsening cold all day, and was struggling so hard to stay on top of work that I didn't even check the thread over lunch or anything. And then I got here and found all of 11 posts had happened since I said something this morning, and more than half of them were just Joseph salami-slicing his lack of content across as many posts as he could :-P

[SpaceAnemone]

Though also, I made an actual serious Mail-mi vote back at #962, and now I can hear crickets chirping. If you're not a fan of my reasoning on that one, please do share...

[mail-mi]

I didn't get very far with the wagons as far as LL goes, but I'm well aware of how lurky he can be these days, having had a hard time finding things to legitimately "townread" him for in our last game.

I did notice that I don't really like Mail-mi's voting pattern, though.

D1: he spent most of the day voting for people who've now flipped town. In particular, at one point he was on a 5-person Joth wagon, where he, Bright and Galz were the only unflipped people involved, and the other two were our flipped Aliens. So I think it's likely he's not an Alien.

D2: he voted Bright for most of the day, before jumping over to the faust wagon for the lynch. That would be consistent with being a faction that wants the aliens gone, especially since he was a vocal supporter of the plan to lynch off claimed scum, without engaging witht he question of whether we definitely want to go after aliens over other factions that have regular NKs.

D3: he voted for me in 3rd place behind LL and Swan, so there's clearly a bit of omgus from me, but also he's clearly wrong. He switched to EFHW at #928.. She didn't have a wagon at all at that point, though it's grown to four people in 30 posts, which is pretty quick. So maybe he's in a scum faction who're afraid of EFHW for some reason and trying to make a push?

I think I like Vote: Mail-mi more than the current wagon options.

Flagging this to respond to it later

[mail-mi]

Though also, I made an actual serious Mail-mi vote back at #962, and now I can hear crickets chirping. If you're not a fan of my reasoning on that one, please do share...

Thanks for the reminder I'll go look at it to defend myself when I can. I should also do some serious reading.

[Eevee]

Mail-mi doesn't look scummy to me. I think scum is also trying to vote for scum here if they can, so the voting pattern isn't convincing to me. I'd expect no busing of consequence, especially at this point.

[raerae]

I think y'all should take a harder look at Bright. He's attacked both vanilla'd players, assuming guilt instead of innocence certainly sounds like a scum tactic more than town.

[WestCoastDidds]

Space, I’m sorry to hear that you are not feeling well and I hope that you kick whatever it is quickly. It seems like the short days and early evenings make feeling puny that much worse. I’m pulling for you!

Rae, talk to me about bright. He’s driving so much of the content right now. Does scum stick their neck out like that?

This is a holiday week for the US players so our availability will likely become irregular. Well, it will for me at least. Still around, but at different times than usual.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Vote Count 3.3

SpaceAnemone (1): DatSwan
LaLight (3): Joseph2302, Brightgalrs, EFHW
Brightgalrs (1): raerae
EFHW (4): mail-mi, Uncleeurope, LaLight, WestCoastDidds
mail-mi (1): SpaceAnemone
Joseph2302 (1): pubby

Not Voting (3): Galzria, shraeye, Eevee

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch. Day Three begins now and ends at 6:00 UTC 11/29/2019.

[raerae]

Space, I’m sorry to hear that you are not feeling well and I hope that you kick whatever it is quickly. It seems like the short days and early evenings make feeling puny that much worse. I’m pulling for you!

Rae, talk to me about bright. He’s driving so much of the content right now. Does scum stick their neck out like that?

This is a holiday week for the US players so our availability will likely become irregular. Well, it will for me at least. Still around, but at different times than usual.

I sure did last game.

And I second Didds on the holiday thing. Thanksgiving has my blood pressure all sorts of up.

[WestCoastDidds]

ADK, you have me voting twice in that last vote count. I’m on EFHW, currently.

xoxo