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[pingpongsam]

Vote: RR

[gkrieg13]

vote: RR

[2.71828.....]

So, lynch first questions later is the approach we are taking today?

While I do think RR is a good lynch not going to put him at L-1 quite yet

[Robz888]

Hey guys, real sorry about yesterday. Has been a pretty bonkers week in DC and New York, where I was.

Why the automatic votes for RR?

[Roadrunner7671]

Oi what the hell guys

i'm a princess

[Robz888]

Oi what the hell guys

i'm a princess

Okay... so, if we have a Guard we could essentially day vig RR.

Is that better than lynching him? I don't know if it is.

[Robz888]

It's statistically pretty likely we have a Guard, right? So we could actually have this conversation without anyone having to claim Guard.

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm town

[Robz888]

And what's the case against RR, by the way? He was acti-lurking and very difficult to actually lynch (again, sorry about that everybody)? That's what I gathered from re-reading the end of day, which I did quickly.

[Robz888]

I'm town

So you say, but your claim doesn't help or hurt your argument that your town, really.

What I'm wondering is IF we decide to lynch you, is better to day vig you.

[Robz888]

Let me ask you this, RR: Why did you claim? What did you expect that would accomplish?

[Roadrunner7671]

Let me ask you this, RR: Why did you claim? What did you expect that would accomplish?

No idea man. I'm pretty much doomed but I figured I'd make the picture as clear as I can.

[Robz888]

Let me ask you this, RR: Why did you claim? What did you expect that would accomplish?

No idea man. I'm pretty much doomed but I figured I'd make the picture as clear as I can.

Well, why do you think you're doomed? You only have two people voting for you.

[Eevee]

Doesn't vigging instead of lynching just essentially take one night kill away from scum?

Does the claim change anything as far as reading RR goes?

[Jimmmmm]

Hey guys, real sorry about yesterday. Has been a pretty bonkers week in DC and New York, where I was. Melbourne.
Why the automatic votes for RR?

[Robz888]

Doesn't vigging instead of lynching just essentially take one night kill away from scum?

Does the claim change anything as far as reading RR goes?

It advances us to a place where we have 6 alive. We still need 4 to lynch. If we mislynch, we go in to night with 5 alive, scum kill, and we have 4 alive tomorrow and we lose, unless we have some combination of cards that could result in scum dying (not sure that's possible.) So if we day vig RR and then mislynch, we lose. But we could day vig RR and then No Lynch.

I guess that's pretty much better than lynching him. If he's scum, we can discuss what that means and then either lynch someone else, or No Lynch. And if he's town, that's bad, but we can just No Lynch and it's the same as if we straight up lynched him instead.

So given that it gives us more options to kill him it's actually not the best claim for scum to make, but there is WIFOM.

Does all that sound right?

[Robz888]

Just looking at the cards again, if we have a Prince, the Prince also has the option to vig RR tonight. But that's much less likely than us having a Guard.

[gkrieg13]

I agree with Eevee's evaluation of using a dayvig instead of lynching.  If we do that though, we also give scum information that (if they have a baron) they could use to kill the guard at night.  Although the chances of a scum!baron are even lower if RR is scum.

[Roadrunner7671]

Let me ask you this, RR: Why did you claim? What did you expect that would accomplish?

No idea man. I'm pretty much doomed but I figured I'd make the picture as clear as I can.

Well, why do you think you're doomed? You only have two people voting for you.

Just a sinking feeling that has gotten worse with all this talk of vigging RR.

[Roadrunner7671]

Also, has it ever occurred to you that as scum I'd fake claim Princess and you guys would 'vig' me, but it wouldn't do anything?

[2.71828.....]

It isn't in the rules (maybe I missed it) but do we know if guard-killing RR  (if it works) will keep us in the day phase or would it take us straight to night?  I know it can be played differently in different games.

[Jimmmmm]

What's the benefit of Dayvigging? If Town Dayvigs Town, there's a ~1/4 chance that we just straight up lose.

[Robz888]

What's the benefit of Dayvigging? If Town Dayvigs Town, there's a ~1/4 chance that we just straight up lose.

Elaborate? We could No Lynch and wouldn't have lost, as far as I can tell.

I mean, of course, we shouldn't do it if we think RR is town. I don't particularly have a strong opinion of RR either way, and the people voting for him haven't offered an explanation.

Why is scumhunting so hard this game?

[Jimmmmm]

What's the benefit of Dayvigging? If Town Dayvigs Town, there's a ~1/4 chance that we just straight up lose.

Elaborate? We could No Lynch and wouldn't have lost, as far as I can tell.

I mean, of course, we shouldn't do it if we think RR is town. I don't particularly have a strong opinion of RR either way, and the people voting for him haven't offered an explanation.

Why is scumhunting so hard this game?

If scum has a Baron. I know it's popular to ignore this possibility, but if a Town Guard dayvigs a Town Princess, then scum NKs Town, a scum Baron can kill the Town Guard for the win.

[2.71828.....]

Ok, more thoughts on the RR claim. 

If RR actually has the princess card:

If RR is town:
guard-kill - If we guard kill town!RR, then we are in a 6v2 scenario and we lose with a mislynch.  This will basically put us in another no-lynch scenario, and giving up two lynches in a game is not a good thing, but I think that is what we will have to do.  5v2, lylo.
lynch - Skip the guard-kill, but still lynch RR.  It is basically the same as guard-killing RR, except we removed the option of no-lynch entirely.  All this would do is make us feel better about not being forced into a no-lynch scenario.  The one advantage of this is we don't expose a guard to a possible baron-kill.
leave alone completely - This is extremely dangerous.  If we do this and mislynch we lose if scum has a guard/prince.  A mislynch puts us at 5v2, scum kills town, then kills RR, 4v2 on D3, town loses.  And I think we have to assume that scum have a card that can vig RR.  Guard or prince both work as a vig card against princess and with 7 of those cards in the deck it is too likely that scum will have one of them for us to risk just leaving this alone. 

If RR is scum:
Lynch over guard-kill for sure.  The only reason he would claim princess as scum would be to reveal a guard for his partner to baron-kill.

If RR is fake-claiming princess

If RR is town:
This is actually a really interesting situation.  Possibly very beneficial for us.  If RR has some random card (not princess) and if RR is town, if we leave him alone there is the possibility that if we mislynch today, scum assumes they have the win in the bag with a guard-kill tomorrow, but instead it just outs scum.  So beneficial.  Except we are still at lylo.

If RR is scum:
We need to lynch him, obviously.  But again, fake-claiming princess seems to be beneficial to scum in that it can possibly reveal a guard so that scum can baron-kill that person.  An attempt to guard-kill scum here is not useful to us.


-------------


So my conclusion after all this is that if RR is actually town and RR's claim is actually true, we are basically at lylo right now.  I just don't see RR as being town when I look at it though.  I mean, he was setting up this claim (true or false) back on D1.  Yeah, I can see town!RR doing that, its just that I don't think that is what we have here.