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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 175746 times)

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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2025 on: November 04, 2014, 10:51:54 am »

Maybe Jimmmmm could claim if he commuted if that helps. This is LyLo, so maybe we should get all information out in the open if it helps catch scum.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2026 on: November 04, 2014, 10:54:13 am »

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2027 on: November 04, 2014, 11:03:16 am »

It was very unlikely both me and silver could be town, our claims were almost competing but not quite. The SK being 1shot bulletproof and thus explaining a missing mafia kill ( that was the missing piece for me) makes more sense than anything I've seen yet.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2028 on: November 04, 2014, 11:04:18 am »

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2029 on: November 04, 2014, 11:05:12 am »

I still think Jimm should not tell us. It's not enough we get it right today, we also have to win the game, and Jimm's role situation unexplained could really help us with that.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2030 on: November 04, 2014, 11:06:04 am »

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.
Well, d'uh. It was/is very unlikely from my perspective that his claim could be truthful. Needed some additional analysis I wasn't capable of doing to get there, but I did. :)

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2031 on: November 04, 2014, 11:06:36 am »

Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2032 on: November 04, 2014, 11:06:51 am »

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.

Well, d'uh. It was/is very unlikely from my perspective that his claim could be truthful. Needed some additional analysis I wasn't capable of doing to get there, but I did. :) You are of course leaving out the part where I switched to IG and rode that wagon hard.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2033 on: November 04, 2014, 11:07:22 am »

Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
I don't think it's been mentioned multiple times, I'm pretty sure I would have noticed. If I had, you don't think I would have used the argument myself already?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2034 on: November 04, 2014, 11:10:04 am »

I still think Jimm should not tell us. It's not enough we get it right today, we also have to win the game, and Jimm's role situation unexplained could really help us with that.

Help us how? This is what will happen:

If we lynch scum (i.e. lynch you) today, the remaining scum will certainly not kill among {me, WW, ash}, as these are the players that can still be mislynched. He will target Jimmmmm, who is conf!town. This happens regardless. Either Jimmmmm can still commute and lives for the endgame, or he doesn't. Claiming won't change the slightest thing here.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2035 on: November 04, 2014, 11:11:32 am »

Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
I don't think it's been mentioned multiple times, I'm pretty sure I would have noticed. If I had, you don't think I would have used the argument myself already?

Maybe you thought playing confused town would work better than playing analytic town, what do I know?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2036 on: November 04, 2014, 11:12:12 am »

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.

Well, d'uh. It was/is very unlikely from my perspective that his claim could be truthful. Needed some additional analysis I wasn't capable of doing to get there, but I did. :) You are of course leaving out the part where I switched to IG and rode that wagon hard.

Again with the reading. I haven't left out that part.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2037 on: November 04, 2014, 11:12:44 am »

So we can't make scum ever target anyone but Jimm? I guess in that case there is no advantage, you are right.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2038 on: November 04, 2014, 11:13:26 am »

Eevee's confusion about the SK seems highly artificial. This has been mentioned multiple times, I'm sure, and is the only semi-reasonable explanation for town!Eevee staying alive. Eevee is a good enough player to realize this.
I don't think it's been mentioned multiple times, I'm pretty sure I would have noticed. If I had, you don't think I would have used the argument myself already?

Maybe you thought playing confused town would work better than playing analytic town, what do I know?
I've tried to be the analytic town. :D
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2039 on: November 04, 2014, 11:16:02 am »

4. Eevee and the Ichi lynch

Eevee's first reaction to the massclaim was trying to get silver lynched (which is, I guess, reasonable as either alignment). Then comes ashersky's analysis, and I guess Eevee feels he can't argue against that, so he gives in to lynching Ichi. And of course tries to get towncred for it. That whole episode with how Eevee acted towards Ichi was so scummy. I suggest you reread it. It was scum thinking they have lost an argument instead of town trying to figure out if ash's analysis was actually waterproof.

So, this is all. I hope it's enough.

I don't think this was Eevee's first reaction.  This seems a little misleading.

Hmmm, you're right I guess. I was referring to this:

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

but it wasn't really his "initial reaction". Still the first vote of Eevee after the claims.

But it's after quite a bit of back and forths and evidence of trying to think things through.  Initially he was going on about Silver being townie.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2040 on: November 04, 2014, 11:18:23 am »

But it's after quite a bit of back and forths and evidence of trying to think things through.  Initially he was going on about Silver being townie.

Yes, well, I agree... I don't really see the point in this argument though, I said that this episode wasn't indicative of alignment.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2041 on: November 04, 2014, 11:40:02 am »

I'm off! Don't do anything stupid.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2042 on: November 04, 2014, 11:43:01 am »

Let's lynch faust! He won't see it coming!
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2043 on: November 04, 2014, 11:45:13 am »

I'm off! Don't do anything stupid.

Yeah, well.. I still don't know which way I'm going.  Hopefully if you are town you understand why this isn't so straightforward.  With this setup there's so many things that can be responsible for a lack of night kills, that it's really hard to make decisions on that.  And you both have been pretty similar in regards voting/interactions with scum and town players. 
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2044 on: November 04, 2014, 12:10:50 pm »

faust has been much more about sly about his "scummy" voting positions. Like, I understand that me defending Hydrad the way I did looks bad, but I was just a townie with a wrong read. If you were his partner, would you tie yourself to him super strongly like I did, or do what faust has been doing with each of our scum lynches and quietly try to deflect towards townier targets?
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2045 on: November 04, 2014, 12:12:35 pm »

It was looking inevitable Hydrad would go down, yet I kept on associating with him. faust was likewise trying to get us go to another direction, but he wasn't getting the attention for it like i was.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2046 on: November 04, 2014, 12:37:54 pm »

When Ichi claims Psych, this was the vote count:

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (1): Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (4): jotheonah, silverspawn, Eevee, Jimmmm (L-1)
silverspawn (2): faust, ashersky


First post from Faust after Ichi claims Psych:

Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.

Vote count before Faust moves to Jimmmm:

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (3): Witherweaver, silverspawn, joth
Ichimaru Gin (2): Eevee, jimmmmm
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): ashersky, Faust


First post from Eevee after Ichi claims Psych:

Well this is unfortunate. I don't really want to lynch any of the viable candidates now.

Probably still like IG best, of the realistic options.

Vote count at that time:
Jimmmmm (3): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust
Hydrad (3): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn
Ichimaru Gin (2): Eevee, Jimmmmm
silverspawn (1): ashersky

And then eventually (after discussion) Eevee votes Jimmmm as well:

Joth, when you put it that way (and I feel the information you listed was accurate and fair), Jimm seems far and away the best choice.

My prefered lynches aren't happening, so I'll Vote: Jimmm. I feel scum is making me compromise though. :/

Also, reads list shortly before the Ichi claim thing:

Okay, everyone needs to take responsibility and we need to get a lynch through.


Want to lynch: IG, WW

Would lynch: joth, maaaaybe ash

No opinion: Jimmm, maaaaybe ash

Would actively oppose lynching: silverspawn, faust, Hydrad


All rows are in the order of certainty.

I feel my vote is best served on IG because not enough people want WW (or joth), but if that's mistaken, those wagons have my vote.

Want to lynch: WW, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

Would lynch: Hydrad, joth, ash

Won't lynch: Eevee, IG

I was kind of hoping there would be a story here~
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2047 on: November 04, 2014, 12:54:23 pm »

I think faust looks very bad there, but maybe I'm biased.

I forgot I had that suspicion on WW going. That could explain him wanting to shoot me as the SK. I still think ash is more likely though.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2048 on: November 04, 2014, 02:22:51 pm »

In the end,to me, Faust had terrible reads, eevee took scummy action/inaction.  Now part of that is timing, Faust wasn't around at a time where he could take definitively scummy action.

I think the N2 situation is hard to explain, as WW showed.  The most likely scenario is a killer was unable to kill or chose not to.  One of those is more likely than the other.

SK bulletproof is not passive, so you have to think SK had a reason to actively choose to use it over the other powers AND on N2.  Was Faust or Eevee likely to make that call?  I don't see it. 

I think eevee failed to kill (jailed) and Faust failed to kill eevee (eevee in jail) is most sensible.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 4 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #2049 on: November 04, 2014, 02:23:48 pm »

I'd also note in multiball, kill motivation can be different.  Shooting for the opposing team could trump killing off the obv!town.
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