Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Witherweaver]

Unless the Traitor was recruited - whether or not it was discussed between two people is a fairly minor point.

Only on Night 1; if Traitor was recruited last night they wouldn't be able to talk about it.

My thought was that two people were more likely to realize a problem with claims than one person.  So non discussion makes the error more likely.

[Jimmmmm]

Unless the Traitor was recruited - whether or not it was discussed between two people is a fairly minor point.

Only on Night 1; if Traitor was recruited last night they wouldn't be able to talk about it.

My thought was that two people were more likely to realize a problem with claims than one person.  So non discussion makes the error more likely.

It's possible, but I don't think it's very likely. Even without anyone to bounce off, I doubt scum would come out with the first claim without thinking through the consequences. I doubt it's sheer chance that allowed scum a half-believable claim.

[silverspawn]

I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

Actually, when Traitor is lynched, a Goon inherits the Roleblocking role.

oh well that sucks.

[silverspawn]

that almost makes me want to do Eevee again

[Witherweaver]

Why?

[silverspawn]

Why?

because an argument for Ichi was that if we kill the traitor, we kill the roleblocker

[Witherweaver]

Why?

because an argument for Ichi was that if we kill the traitor, we kill the roleblocker

Sure, if you're not you.  Did you forget about the youness of you?

[silverspawn]

Why?

because an argument for Ichi was that if we kill the traitor, we kill the roleblocker

Sure, if you're not you.  Did you forget about the youness of you?

what?

[silverspawn]

what are you even doing? i think I liked you better yesterday.

[Witherweaver]

From a VT-claim perspective, there are three choices for scum in PR claims and three choices for scum in VT claims.  That the Traitor is more likely a PR claim gives an advantage to lynching out of PR claim if Traitor death removes Roleblocking.

However, this isn't your perspective.  From your perspective, the only PR choices for scum are Ichi, Jimm.  You've basically expressed a strong town read on Jimmmmm.  You don't need to thought above because you can eliminate yourself as possible scum.  You basically *know* that Ichi is scum up to the possibility that you think Jimmmm may be town.

Moving away from Ichi for that claimed reason doesn't make sense from your perspective.

Hence, you forgot that you were you. 

[silverspawn]

I really have said all of this before. I Know either Ichi or Jimmm is scum. I've gone back and forth on these two, and right now I'm maybe 65%/35% for Jimmm, based on these 2 posts, and also the lack of resistance from Ichi. I'm still over 90% on Eevee, because I blocked him. That's not a read, it's a way more solid evidence.

[silverspawn]

so,

Hence, you forgot that you were you. 

No. I didn't.

I'll go to bed now.

[Witherweaver]

You also doctored Eevee.  There are many explanations for no kill. So how is it 90%?

You also seemed more than 65% sure about Jimmmmm before.

[ashersky]

I think there's also the fact that Ichi was on the D1 mislynch and off the D2 correct lynch (like Eevee).  That's another point against him.

As for safe claim/smart claim/etc. -- Ichi claimed under pressure.  I think he took a chance and claimed a PR hoping to survive.

I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.  If he is a Traitor in TKM, he knows there are exactly three roles NOT in the game.  He chose the one with the easiest to fake results.  For all I know, he shot me and I was saved by Silver's jailkeeping, and he claimed to investigate me to cover bases (although there's no tracker...it's always best to use as much truth in your lie as possible).

I feel like you are arguing that he had a 50% chance of claiming a role that could not exist when the three real PRs became known.  But at the time that he claimed Psychologist, any single other PR in the game at the time would know that a psychologist was possible.

Remember, no one else had claimed.  If he's the Traitor in TKM, the only way his Psychologist claim is immediately caught is if a BP Townie exists.  A JK, Detective, Commuter, or Bodyguard all have options for setups with a Psychologist, so they can't immediately out him.

So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.  20%.  Not great, but better than dying.  If he claims Goon Cop, it doesn't work with Jailkeeper OR BP townie and he knew the JK existed, so that's out.  If he claims Watcher, it doesn't work with Detective or Bodyguard.

So Psychologist was a 1/5 chance of failing immediately.  The other two available fake claims were a 2/5 chance of failing immediately.  Ergo, if a Traitor in TKM is going to fakeclaim a PR, it has to be Psychologist.  (Good to know if this setup is run again, btw)

[ashersky]

So Psychologist was a 1/5 chance of failing immediately.  The other two available fake claims were a 2/5 chance of failing immediately.  Ergo, if a Traitor in TKM is going to fakeclaim a PR, it has to be Psychologist.  (Good to know if this setup is run again, btw)

Actually, this should say "so Psychologist was a 1/5 chance of failing immediately.  The other two available fake claims were 100% chance of failure (Goon Cop) or 2/5 chance of failure.  Ergo, if a Traitor in TKM...

[ashersky]

So I take all that, and I compare it to the other three claims with regards to timing, reasoning, and possibility of being fake, and I come to the conclusion that Ichi's claim is the most likely to fake.

[Ichimaru Gin]

What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

[Witherweaver]

What you said is true in terms of the circumstances surrounding my claim. However, the fact that I was the first PR to claim also gave scum additional information to formulate their own fakeclaims based off of mine. Depending what scum knew from their own roles or knowing their partners or not + my claim, it would allow them to narrow the setup down substantially--thus giving them the ability to craft much more believable fakeclaims.

Which scum?  Who did this? How did they use the information in this situation?

[Jimmmmm]

I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

[ashersky]

I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

[Jimmmmm]

So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

[Jimmmmm]

I am arguing that, AT THE TIME OF HIS CLAIM, he made the safest claim he could if he is a Traitor in TKM.

Wrong. The safest claim would be VT. Another safer option would be withhold claiming entirely, especially since (if I remember the timing rightly) I had already proposed a massclaim and probably seemed fairly likely to claim willingly.

Okay, I should have written out "safest PR fake claim he could make" instead of just claim.  But now you are just making arguments to try to belittle me, and I don't appreciate it.  You knew exactly what I mean when I wrote it in the context of my entire post.  But you pulled out a single line and make a statement such as yours to try and make me look stupid and idiotic.  Thanks.

Civility remember. Don't try to make things personal when they're not.

My point is valid - if scum he didn't have to claim a PR, and he certainly didn't have to claim when he did.

[ashersky]

So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

And yet you continue.  This is why yuma quit.

[Jimmmmm]

So it was a 1 in 5 chance he gets caught immediately.

Wrong. In the even of a massclaim Today, which had already been proposed, he had a 1 in 2 chance of being automatically lynched Today, and a 1 in 2 chance of being part of a 1 scum in 3. That's a 1 in 3 chance of surviving the Day. Scum don't willingly give themselves a 1 in 3 chance of surviving.

And yet you continue.  This is why yuma quit.

Please don't pull this again. You can't expect me to stop arguing my point just because you say you've had your feelings hurt.

[ashersky]

Please don't pull this again. You can't expect me to stop arguing my point just because you say you've had your feelings hurt.

How about because you are being unfair?  Don't pull single lines out of context to disprove or to make me look stupid.