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[Witherweaver]

What do you make of the fact that it's very hard for both me and silver to be town? Like very, very hard.

Why was this again?  Because the lack of a kill?

[Eevee]

Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

[Eevee]

What do you make of the fact that it's very hard for both me and silver to be town? Like very, very hard.

Why was this again?  Because the lack of a kill?

I know I didn't kill anyone, but silver is claiming I was jailkept and that's why we are missing kills. I could see a serial killer shooting me, but why would mafia ever do that?

[Eevee]

This is making my head hurt. I fear we might be missing something very obvious, just because it's all so confusing.

[Witherweaver]

If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

Three options:

1. Scum targeted Jimmmmm who commuted. Given what Jimmmmm said so far, I doubt he commuted, so that not it.
2. The Traitor accidentally roleblocked his partner.
3. Scum chose to no kill for WIFOM and to make silver's claim believable.

I think 3 is most likely, though 2 is also an option.

None of those feel very likely though. Man. Seems something unlikely has happened.

Okay, if this is true Traitor does not know his partner:

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

So we're in

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

So in (4) Silver is sum, in (6) Jimmm is scum.  In (4) Silver HAS to be the Traitor.  Who can Roleblock.. which is like jailkeeping.. sensible fakeclaim? 

Does Traitor!Silver know there can't be a Jailkeeper at the point where he claims it?  Is he willing to take the risk to out him?

PPEs: Eevee

[faust]

Possibilities on no kill:

(I) NO SK:

(1) Eevee was the target by Mafia and Silver is telling the truth.  Doesn't make a lot of sense.
(2) Eevee was the killer and Silver is telling the truth.  Makes more sense.
(3) Jimmmm was the target and commuted
(4) Traitor did not know Mafia and Roleblocked killer.  (Unlikely I think.)

(II) SK:
(1) Eevee was the target by SK and Silver is telling the truth.  Still seems unlikely.. does it make sense for SK to target Eevee here?
(2) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK chose to not kill in order to use an ability.  (Investigation immunity, for instance.  Or is that passive?)
(3) All of (1--4) by Mafia and SK also shot the same target.  Also unlikely.

All these cases are getting a bit rough.  Can someone make a table of each PR lying and what it means for the setup, specifically SK/no SK? 

PPE: Faust.  Also has a point on Jailkeeping that can be added to above.

I think Investigation Immune is in addition to killing; it's only the town roles he can only perform if he gives up the kill. Which town roles does the SK even want to perform? Certainly not Bodyguard. Not Goon Cop/Detective/Psychologist/Watcher; just not worth giving up a kill. Not 1-shot BP, as he is BP already. Maaaybe 1-shot Commuter if investigation immunity is used up, but unlikely. JK might be good, but he doesn't want to protect anyone, so arguably worse than killing.

No I don't think the SK wants to give up his night kill. Only reason for this would be fear of being watched. But Watcher and SK are mutually exclusive.

... I don't think the SK ever wants to give up his kill here.

PPE 6, wow.

[Witherweaver]

But does investigation immune trigger the first time he's investigated?  Or does he have to activate it one night?  I'm thinking the first, because the second would kind of suck, right?

[jotheonah]

From the setup post:

Mafia Investigation Immune is universal. It will return results of "Not Goon" to Goon Cops, "Not Killed" to Detectives, "Can't Kill" to Psychologists and "Didn't Target Anyone" to Watchers.

[Eevee]

Yeah, I'm thinking that the most likely reason for the SK to not shoot is forgetting to submit the order.

[faust]

(2) Joth's Target (Eevee, right?) used an investigation immune.  This means either SK with JOAT or Mafia.  I haven't been following all the setup possibilities.  Is 1-shot investigation immune addon to mafia possible?  What does it imply about our claims?

This is impossible btw. The OP explicitly states which results will be given when investigating someone who is immune. It's not "No result".

[Witherweaver]

Ohhhhhhhh... so that doesn't explain no result.

So um... Joth's target commuted or Joth was Roleblocked.  Means Eevee is SK who used JOAT commute or Traitor roleblocked Joth.  Second is most likely.

[faust]

Ninja'd

[Witherweaver]

Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

[faust]

Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

Note that this is only possible if Mafia doesn't know the Traitor (they wouldn't shoot him otherwise, would they?), which is only if Ichi lies.

[Eevee]

Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

[faust]

Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.

[Witherweaver]

Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

Note that this is only possible if Mafia doesn't know the Traitor (they wouldn't shoot him otherwise, would they?), which is only if Ichi lies.

Didn't someone argue it was a sensible move to intentionally recruit earlier?

[faust]

Hey, what if the SK shot me, trying to hit mafia?

Still wouldn't explain where mafia's kill went, though.

Why would SK want to shoot you, though?  Isn't it better for them to hit town here?

OH YEAH.. keep on forgetting, Mafia could have shot their Traitor and recruited him.

Note that this is only possible if Mafia doesn't know the Traitor (they wouldn't shoot him otherwise, would they?), which is only if Ichi lies.

Didn't someone argue it was a sensible move to intentionally recruit earlier?

Really? I would definitely not do it.

[Eevee]

Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.

Why? Sorry, I'm really having trouble following this.

[faust]

Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.

Why? Sorry, I'm really having trouble following this.

If silver lies, Mafia knows the Traitor. I argue that mafia wouldn't purposefully shoot the Traitor.

[Eevee]

Oooooh so the missing mafia kill could be them recruiting the traitor?

Not if silver lies.

Why? Sorry, I'm really having trouble following this.

If silver lies, Mafia knows the Traitor. I argue that mafia wouldn't purposefully shoot the Traitor.

The problem with that argument for me is that something unlikely clearly must have happened. The other conditions seem less unlikely than this, so I wouldn't rule it out completely.

[Eevee]

I mean I agree, I don't think they would. But man, these other conditions are tall orders too.

[Witherweaver]

Say Traitor!Silver Roleblocks Mafia by mistake. We're here:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

Now, what would he do in this situation?  No kill tells him that his target was most likely Mafia.  Does he lie to try to implicate someone else?    Would two mislynches (Eevee + one of the claimed PRs) be enough to win?

[Witherweaver]

But wait if that's true, Joth couldn't have gotten Roleblocked.  Which means his target had to have commuted, which is only possible if Eevee is SK that used JOAT commuting.

But then we can't be in

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

because there is no SK.

So, uh.. Traitor did not Roleblock Mafia last night?

[Witherweaver]

If a non-Silver Traitor roleblocked Mafia killer last night... then we're in:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

So Jimmmm is scum, and we have a Serial Killer.  Again, Joth was not Roleblocked, which means Eevee is the SK that used JOAT to commute. 

So that's a possibility.  And this is the only way that the no kill is explained by Traitor Roleblocking Mafia shooter, because the other one is a contradiction.

Right?

Well, lynching Eevee clears this case, and if he flips SK then Jimmm is likely scum?

If Eevee flips town then we can't be in that scenario, so no kill is explained another way:

(1) Eevee was target and Silver told the truth
(2) Scum decided not to kill for "framing" purposes.  I never buy this one.
(3) Jimmm commuted
(4) SK was target and commuted.

If (1) is true, then we're in

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer        (Jimmm Scum)
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer (Ichi Scum)

If (3) is true, then we're in

4. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer  (Ichi scum)
7. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor                   (Silver scum)

If (4) is true, then we're in

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer        (Jimmm scum)
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer (Ichi scum)

I'm pretty sure there is no new info here, but I guess it was good to go through anyway.