Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[faust]

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

I don't know how I should judge the fact that you're making an argument that can easily be turned against you. Seems townie, but could be a preemptive strike of scum thinking "someone will make that argument eventually, better if it's me".

You are right that Ichi looks quite townie through this. And if Ichi is town, it's 50/50 between you and silver, which is probably even better odds than between Eevee/silver...

[Eevee]

I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?

If claiming VT automatically made people town, scum would be doing it more often.

Not getting shot by the SK springs to mind as one potential reason. Good old fancy play syndrome as another. Who do you think is scum, out of the claimants?

[Eevee]

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

I don't know how I should judge the fact that you're making an argument that can easily be turned against you. Seems townie, but could be a preemptive strike of scum thinking "someone will make that argument eventually, better if it's me".

You are right that Ichi looks quite townie through this. And if Ichi is town, it's 50/50 between you and silver, which is probably even better odds than between Eevee/silver...

If someone is pre-emptively making arguments, it's silverspawn. First he says "If I were you, I'd lynch me", but then he suspects me for wanting to lynch him. Weird.

[faust]

I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?

If claiming VT automatically made people town, scum would be doing it more often.

Not getting shot by the SK springs to mind as one potential reason. Good old fancy play syndrome as another. Who do you think is scum, out of the claimants?

I don't have strong preferences... I still maintain a town read on Ichi. Jimmmmm is still quite null, but certainly possible. silver could very well be scum, but might be cleared.

I actually, in a vacuum, would think Jimmmmm is the most likely liar. But I'm not sure his recent play fits this assumption.

[faust]

Really like the setup, I have to say. This is the kind of situation I love to face.

[faust]

If someone is pre-emptively making arguments, it's silverspawn. First he says "If I were you, I'd lynch me", but then he suspects me for wanting to lynch him. Weird.

The way I understood him, that's not really the reason he suspects you.

[Eevee]

This post, though.

I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.

I mean, this is exactly what I was saying earlier. If it was coming from anyone else, I'd totally believe it. But since everyone else is suddenly starting to believe me, how come the player with the strongest town read on me previously is the first one to vote?

Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?

Well I already answered this. If I was one of you, I would vote for me, because I wouldn't believe in the existence of a SK. But if I were you, I would not have buddied me in the first place - (I think you did, maybe that's debatable). I am not you though. You are you. You can try to push my lynch now, if you're a VT, that's probably the best thing you can do. But I'm like 95% that you're not town at this point.

[faust]

Well, I can see that it's scummy, but I just read it as confirmation bias.

[Eevee]

Worst part about lynching me would be that it wouldn't give us any new info. At least if we guess wrong among the claimants, we face an easier decision tomorrow. I think having me flip VT would pretty much just doom us.

[faust]

Worst part about lynching me would be that it wouldn't give us any new info. At least if we guess wrong among the claimants, we face an easier decision tomorrow. I think having me flip VT would pretty much just doom us.

Having you flip VT would heavily implicate silver.

[Eevee]

Worst part about lynching me would be that it wouldn't give us any new info. At least if we guess wrong among the claimants, we face an easier decision tomorrow. I think having me flip VT would pretty much just doom us.

Having you flip VT would heavily implicate silver.

I think silver is already heavily implicated!

[Jimmmmm]

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks.
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

[Jimmmmm]

I don't know how I should judge the fact that you're making an argument that can easily be turned against you. Seems townie, but could be a preemptive strike of scum thinking "someone will make that argument eventually, better if it's me".

I was looking at Ichi v silver, knowing that I'm Town. I then realised it would be useful to look at myself with the same analysis, and acknowledged that in my next post.

[faust]

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks.
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Wow... I think a post like that would be really, really hard to fake as scum. I'm will assume you're town for now. Also, nice thinking. That would have been awesome had it worked out.

[faust]

I'm swayed towards vote: silverspawn now.

That is L-2.

[Jimmmmm]

That's some very insightful analysis. I appreciate that you're getting more involved, Jimmmmm.

Thanks.
When we only had 3 PR claims and it didn't look like we were going to have another one, I could be certain (based on jo and Ichi being ICs and Ichi claiming Psychologist) that jo was the Detective. He couldn't know for sure I was the Commuter unless he assumed no SK. I was debating the merits of claiming Detective and faking some results (dangerous I know but worst case my flip would clear it up). The point being that jo would, knowing that I'm Town and lying about my role, see what I was doing and figure that I knew he was the Detective and I was therefore the Commuter, and then he would claim Commuter so that our claims didn't contradict scum's add-on. The point of all of this being that I would then hopefully draw the NK, giving jo an extra Night to get results.
Of course, jo may not have received the message I would have been trying to send. It felt a bit like Hanabi.

Wow... I think a post like that would be really, really hard to fake as scum.

Truth be known that crossed my mind and contributed to me deciding to post it even though it otherwise doesn't really help the game.

[Jimmmmm]

Also, nice thinking. That would have been awesome had it worked out.

Thanks. With only 3 PR claims I could have easily backed out of it and explained myself if it didn't work out. The biggest roadblock was that I'd have to come up with fake results.

[silverspawn]

I want to point out that just because scum outnumbers us, they don't win automatically - SK and Mafia can kill off each other. But yes, it's no longer in our hands then.

so, if I were scum, you could do Eevee and then me and probably win. which means, no reason to lynch me now. so why do it?

Eevee voting me just tells me that he's scum, I'm about 95% sure of that, and if I'm wrong, we just lose anyway (at least almost certainly). My guess right now is that, Eevee is the SK, Jimmm is scum or traitor, and someone else is scum/traitor. Even though that means I have to accept that town!IG played the day1 that he did. Then this is our setup:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

Jimmmm knows I'm town, so he's trying to get my killed. The two votes for me fit right into my narrative here. plus, Jimmmm just won Zelda mafia by lurking, there is no way we let him do this again, so it's very logical for him to be more active now (though you could of course also make on opposing argument here). yea, pretty confident that it's Eevee + Jimmmm + ?, I don't think town!Jimmm pressures me here.

of course, if you do lynch me, it's even worse than lynching town!eevee, because I'm also our strongest PR. then we just lose. I mean, it's at least completely obvious that if I am town and you lynch me, the game is over, because then you play 7-3, without a JK, vs two killing factions, and with a Night start. so, what I said in the last post. If you think I'm scum, kill Eevee first. If you think I'm town, kill Eevee first.

[Eevee]

Why does me voting you tell you that I'm scum?

[silverspawn]

Why does me voting you tell you that I'm scum?

It was already like 90%, because I targeted you last night and noone died. I know for sure there is a SK, so I must have prevented at least one kill, most likely both. SK and scum both shot you? I don't think so.

The other 5% come from your one eighty. voting for me just when you're getting into trouble is extremely opportunistic, and it's, as I said, the same thing Voltaire did in James Bond Mafia. You could vote me for self-preservation, and that would be fine, but you aren't. You made it sound like you really thought I was scum. I don't buy it.

[Eevee]

so, we really have a SK. I thought this was extremely unlikely. like, a few percent or something. in james bond mafia, I knew voltaire was lying, because his claim could only be true in a scenario with 0 randomed T's, which was less than 1%. This is similar. One one-kill night - okay, but a 0-kill night AND a 1-kill night? well, it happened. This is like the first time there's a real reason to mistrust me, and now you're starting to believe me. I don't get it. If I were you, I'd kill me based on the fact that me lying is the only scenario without a SK.

You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?

[Eevee]

I don't think you are making sense, but arguing with scum tends to be pretty pointless. It's not like you are ever going to convince them to confess.

[silverspawn]

You said it yourself, if you were us, you'd lynch yourself. How can you possibly find it proof of me being scum that I think it's far more likely that you are scum than it is that we have a SK?

I said that, and then you voted for me. Both the "then" and the "you" are suspicious about that. Why should you be the first person to find that scummy? Why not faust, WW, ash, joth? And why didn't you vote for me before I posted it? It just looks like you took it as an excuse.

But even if that argument doesn't convince you, fact remains that a no-kill happened after I imprisoned you. At LyLo, that's more than enough reason to lynch you. There is no way I can change to someone else. That would just be horrible play.

[Eevee]

If silver is lying about being the jailkeeper, where could tonight's kill have gone?

[silverspawn]

I don't think you are making sense, but arguing with scum tends to be pretty pointless. It's not like you are ever going to convince them to confess.

In my situation, would you lynch for someone other than you?

No. Of course not. So, really, saying that I don't make sense is pretty absurd.