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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 175726 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1375 on: October 20, 2014, 06:11:14 am »

Quote
jo's claim doesn't clear you at all.
it kind of does, he investigated me N1, and I probably would have done the kill as scum, but more importantly, he received no result on Eevee, and I put him in prison. furthermore, I claimed that before Joth. Is that even possible otherwise?

silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1376 on: October 20, 2014, 06:13:27 am »

Actually, hold on. Being put into jail doesn't rolestop the target in this setup. my pm specifically says that other, non-killing actions can be performed on the target. Joth investigating Eevee does not clear me.

faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1377 on: October 20, 2014, 06:14:21 am »

Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

Coming back to this.

You got "no result" on Eevee? That doesn't make sense, does it? If someone is jailkept, you usually still get results on them - at least that's what mafiascum suggests.

e, if someone targeted a jailkept player with an investigative action, would they get a result?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1378 on: October 20, 2014, 06:14:39 am »

PPE: silver thinking the same thing.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1379 on: October 20, 2014, 06:16:25 am »

Okay, if silver says that's what his PM says, a new question arises - why did joth get no result on Eevee? That means joth was blocked, yes?
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1380 on: October 20, 2014, 06:16:42 am »

So this is interesting, how did he receive no result? I think it could be

#1 Traitor roleblocked him
#2 SK roleblocked him (and didn't try to kill)

these are definitely possible, though I don't think #2 is very likely.

And, SK is one-shot investigation immune. But I assume that makes a "didn't kill" result, and not a no-result. Joth?

PPE3

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1381 on: October 20, 2014, 06:17:25 am »

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

Why would silver being scum lead you to lynch me?
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1382 on: October 20, 2014, 06:18:23 am »

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

Why would silver being scum lead you to lynch me?

pretty sure "you" meant "Eevee" here.

faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1383 on: October 20, 2014, 06:19:22 am »

A musing... lynching the SK today clears silver. This points slightly towards lynching a VT, as I think the SK is almost certainly to be found there.

Are we assuming there's a SK?
That's how I'm reading faust's and silver's previous posts.

Well, the only scenario where there's no SK is where silver is scum... in that case, we can lynch you and, if you're town, at least strongly consider silver.

Why would silver being scum lead you to lynch me?

pretty sure "you" meant "Eevee" here.

Confirming this.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1384 on: October 20, 2014, 06:20:29 am »

so, back to the no-result thing. I think Joth played a very strong game, so it's probably most likely that traitor roleblocked him. Which would be Ichi or Jimmmm.

interesting here is that Ichi said he found Joth scummy. So, that's kinda clever if he is in fact the traitor. otherwise, it was just Jimmmm

Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1385 on: October 20, 2014, 06:20:40 am »

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1386 on: October 20, 2014, 06:25:13 am »

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

during James Bond mafia, Voltaire was buddying me the whole time. Then I started suspecting him, and when he was about to get lynched, he voted me, only to flip scum immediately. pretty sure the exact same thing is happening here.

the problem here really is that you buddying me is just so opportunistic. we get along great outside of this game, you are known for buddying, I am a new player, it's just such an obvious move. And you were overdoing it, I mean I claimed VT day 1. where is it coming from? And, if you really had such a strong town read on me, why would you change your mind now? It doesn't make a lot of sense.

silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1387 on: October 20, 2014, 06:26:44 am »

This doesn't mean people should stop buddying me in future games though  :P

Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1388 on: October 20, 2014, 06:28:38 am »

Vote: silverspawn seems pretty clear to me then..

during James Bond mafia, Voltaire was buddying me the whole time. Then I started suspecting him, and when he was about to get lynched, he voted me, only to flip scum immediately. pretty sure the exact same thing is happening here.

the problem here really is that you buddying me is just so opportunistic. we get along great outside of this game, you are known for buddying, I am a new player, it's just such an obvious move. And you were overdoing it, I mean I claimed VT day 1. where is it coming from? And, if you really had such a strong town read on me, why would you change your mind now? It doesn't make a lot of sense.
I don't understand!

I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.

Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1389 on: October 20, 2014, 06:34:24 am »

Quote
I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.
I mean, this is exactly what I was saying earlier. If it was coming from anyone else, I'd totally believe it. But since everyone else is suddenly starting to believe me, how come the player with the strongest town read on me previously is the first one to vote?

Quote
Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
Well I already answered this. If I was one of you, I would vote for me, because I wouldn't believe in the existence of a SK. But if I were you, I would not have buddied me in the first place - (I think you did, maybe that's debatable). I am not you though. You are you. You can try to push my lynch now, if you're a VT, that's probably the best thing you can do. But I'm like 95% that you're not town at this point.

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1390 on: October 20, 2014, 06:42:26 am »

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1391 on: October 20, 2014, 06:43:15 am »

I think there's another argument - if I am town, we have 3 Players left to lynch. But if I were scum, ther'd be a SK, and only 2 players left to lynch.

So, let's say you kill Eevee today.

If he flips town, I know that the game is lost, because there are only 7 Players left, at least one will die in the night, and 3 of them are anti town. Which means, I don't care what happens then anyway. If Eevee is VT, I think we just lose. But you will assume that I am scum, so you will lynch me. And if I were scum, it would be like this:

8 players
lynch Eevee -> 7 players
NK -> 6 players
lynch me -> 5 players
NK -> 4 players

that's still MYLO, but it's probably a decent spot to be in, all things considered. you still have PR's left, so you can nolynch, forcing a situation with 3 players. and maybe the detective can create ICs or something.

I hope my thought process here isn't too complicated. The argument here is basically that the scum!me scenario warrants an Eevee lynch. WW was saying something similar before I think.

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1392 on: October 20, 2014, 06:45:36 am »

Here's what I'm thinking.

Ichi was the first person to actually claim a PR. If he is scum, then the add on is Traitor Knows Mafia/SK.
If this is the case, then it's reasonable to assume that Ichi is the Traitor, since he would then have the most information and be in the best position to make a logical claim.
If Ichi was the Traitor, then he would know that we have either Column 3 or Row 3.
If we have Column 3, Psychologist is a believable claim since from a Neutral point of view with the other claims, we could have Row 4.
But if we have Row 3, there is in fact no logical fake claim, and a Psychologist claim would quickly be found out against the three real claims.

If he was instead the SK, he would know we have either Column 2, Column 3 or Row 1. This would make Psychologist a reasonable claim for scum trying to mess up ICs, but not so good for a SK trying to stay alive.

So if Ichi is scum then he didn't have enough information to know that his claim wouldn't immediately be caught out.

If, on the other hand, silver is scum and knew that the Mafia knew the Traitor, then he'd know we have either Row 4 or Column 2, neither of which would immediately out a fakeclaimed JK.

In summary, Ichi didn't have enough information to make a safe (at least safe enough to not be immediately outed) fakeclaim, while silver did.

Vote: silverspawn

For the record, if I'm scum I had plenty of information to provide a fakeclaim. However, I do have an early breadcrumb if anyone's found it.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1393 on: October 20, 2014, 06:47:30 am »

Quote
I don't think I've been buddying you, I've had a town read on you based on your actions. Now, new information comes to light, I'm either forced to believe there is a serial killer and we are missing 3 kills in 2 nights, or that I was wrong about you, and you didn't actually lie about being a vt because you are a power role but you lied about being a vt because you are scum.
I mean, this is exactly what I was saying earlier. If it was coming from anyone else, I'd totally believe it. But since everyone else is suddenly starting to believe me, how come the player with the strongest town read on me previously is the first one to vote?

Quote
Step in my shoes, I'm a VT. What would you believe?
Well I already answered this. If I was one of you, I would vote for me, because I wouldn't believe in the existence of a SK. But if I were you, I would not have buddied me in the first place - (I think you did, maybe that's debatable). I am not you though. You are you. You can try to push my lynch now, if you're a VT, that's probably the best thing you can do. But I'm like 95% that you're not town at this point.
You aren't making any sense buddy. I had a townread on you until it was a) revealed that your VT claim was a lie and b) you being town would require rather extraordinary circumstances (3/4 kills being somehow blocked). You think my position is suspicious somehow, what?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1394 on: October 20, 2014, 06:49:17 am »

Man I wish I understood this setup things better. Jimm's post makes sense to me, but I think I could easily be fooled.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1395 on: October 20, 2014, 06:52:31 am »

I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1396 on: October 20, 2014, 06:57:22 am »

I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1397 on: October 20, 2014, 07:00:19 am »

I'm more and more feeling silverspawn and faust for scum.

What reason does scum!silver have to claim VT at game start?

I don't know. Probably the same reason PR!silver does. Maybe he decided to do it before he got his PM.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1398 on: October 20, 2014, 07:00:36 am »

I think there's another argument - if I am town, we have 3 Players left to lynch. But if I were scum, ther'd be a SK, and only 2 players left to lynch.

So, let's say you kill Eevee today.

If he flips town, I know that the game is lost, because there are only 7 Players left, at least one will die in the night, and 3 of them are anti town. Which means, I don't care what happens then anyway. If Eevee is VT, I think we just lose. But you will assume that I am scum, so you will lynch me. And if I were scum, it would be like this:

8 players
lynch Eevee -> 7 players
NK -> 6 players
lynch me -> 5 players
NK -> 4 players

that's still MYLO, but it's probably a decent spot to be in, all things considered. you still have PR's left, so you can nolynch, forcing a situation with 3 players. and maybe the detective can create ICs or something.

I hope my thought process here isn't too complicated. The argument here is basically that the scum!me scenario warrants an Eevee lynch. WW was saying something similar before I think.

I want to point out that just because scum outnumbers us, they don't win automatically - SK and Mafia can kill off each other. But yes, it's no longer in our hands then.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 3 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #1399 on: October 20, 2014, 07:02:27 am »

I think there's another argument - if I am town, we have 3 Players left to lynch. But if I were scum, ther'd be a SK, and only 2 players left to lynch.

Isn't it the other way around - there's a SK if you're Town and not if you're scum?
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