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[ashersky]

If Ichi and Silver are telling the truth:

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

[ashersky]

If Ichi and Silver are telling the truth:

2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver and Jimmmmm are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

The Detective is possible in all liar scenarios.
As Jimmmmm mentioned, no SK means one of Jimmmmm/Silver is lying.

[jotheonah]

Should I claim now? Weirdly, my claim corroborates silver's story but my role doesn't match up with his claim. I investigated Eevee last night and got "No result" which would seem to suggest he really was jailkept.

But I am, in fact, the Detective.

I actually investigated silver night one -- he did not kill night one. I also breadcrumbed early and can point it out if need be.

[jotheonah]

I also hate day 1 and am a big fan of getting it over with as quickly as possible. So, I'm not for sure locked in but vote: Ichimaru until someone convinces me otherwise.

that's my breadcrumb, bolding added. sure lock = Sherlock = detective.

[ashersky]

If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



And we have three viable setups for four claims.

[ashersky]

Good news is, no one is investigation immune automatically -- only if there is an SK and he actively used it one night.

We know for sure mafia's "power" is knows traitor or traitor knows them.

[jotheonah]

If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



And we have three viable setups for four claims.

I think this is very helpful honestly.  It's got to be silver or ichi. #4 is the most likely because it seems so unlikely we have a serial killer.
On the other hand, silver's claim explains my lack of an investigative result last night. It also greatly implicates Eevee, who was protecting Hydrad last turn, as the third scum team member (given the no kill)

Maybe, and this is a little crazy, we lynch Eevee and none of the claimed PRs. That way there's no risk of accidentally killing one of our PRs tonight.

[jotheonah]

I'm calling Ichi-Eevee-Hydrad as the team, though with the traitor there's one more. Seems to fit the facts pretty well? It means Ichi took a chance claiming psychologist, but given how many times he hit L1, that doesn't seem far-fetched to me.

[Witherweaver]

Eevee turning scum basically clears Silver I think, so not a bad choice.

[Witherweaver]

I'm calling Ichi-Eevee-Hydrad as the team, though with the traitor there's one more. Seems to fit the facts pretty well? It means Ichi took a chance claiming psychologist, but given how many times he hit L1, that doesn't seem far-fetched to me.

That means Ichi is traitor and not on the team.. Not sure if that's significant.

[ashersky]

I'm calling Ichi-Eevee-Hydrad as the team, though with the traitor there's one more. Seems to fit the facts pretty well? It means Ichi took a chance claiming psychologist, but given how many times he hit L1, that doesn't seem far-fetched to me.

The "team" is two players, with one traitor.

I do think Eevee is Hydrad's partner.  And he was jailed and there was no kill would mean he's not the traitor.  That would make the fake claimant the Traitor...which is risky.

[ashersky]

Out of the claimants, I've already said Ichi and Silver are the scummiest, both based on the way the claims happened and their actions/posts.

[jotheonah]

Ok, you're Ichi. You're the traitor. You know who the mafia are, so you know you're in:


3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

No psychologist. It was safe from counterclaims.

[Witherweaver]

Ichi, result?

[ashersky]

If Ichi, Silver, joth are telling the truth:

6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer

If Ichi, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

4. 1-shot Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor

If Silver, Jimmmmm, joth are telling the truth:

7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer



And we have three viable setups for four claims.

I think this is very helpful honestly.  It's got to be silver or ichi. #4 is the most likely because it seems so unlikely we have a serial killer.
On the other hand, silver's claim explains my lack of an investigative result last night. It also greatly implicates Eevee, who was protecting Hydrad last turn, as the third scum team member (given the no kill)

Maybe, and this is a little crazy, we lynch Eevee and none of the claimed PRs. That way there's no risk of accidentally killing one of our PRs tonight.

I would say joth is confirmed at this point, except that, well, with all the other claiming, all he had to do was claim Detective.  So if he's scum with silver, he was able to verify his partner.

That's like 9th level conspiracy theory stuff, though.  Given my town read on joth, I'm going with occam's razor and the most likely thing is he is town and honest.

So the liar is (to me) within silver/ichi/jimmmm.

Ichi claimed under pressure, silver lied.  Jimmmmm...he's been absent a lot of the game.

Gameplay tells me that if we hadn't done any claims, I'd be going after Eevee for the way he was going into deadline at D2 with Hydrad on the block.  If we stick with it and lynch him, I have to imagine scum kills Joth, unless silver is telling the truth AND roleblocks the right person; but then scum can no kill on purpose to try and frame whomever silver roleblocks.

And if scum is silver, he can do both, just no killing and killing off people for fun based on his "targeting".

[ashersky]

Ok, you're Ichi. You're the traitor. You know who the mafia are, so you know you're in:


3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer

No psychologist. It was safe from counterclaims.

Which means we're in Setup 7.

[ashersky]

If that's true, we lynch Ichi and roleblock Eevee (or the other way around).

[jotheonah]

I'm feeling pretty confident. I would like to lynch Ichi or Eevee today, the other one tomorrow, and then win the game.

Also, we don't want to kill silver. Because if he's telling the truth, he can jailkeep the same person again tonight and they won't even be able to make a kill.

[jotheonah]

but that means we have a serial killer!

[ashersky]

I'm feeling pretty confident. I would like to lynch Ichi or Eevee today, the other one tomorrow, and then win the game.

Also, we don't want to kill silver. Because if he's telling the truth, he can jailkeep the same person again tonight and they won't even be able to make a kill.

I mean, it's Ichi vs. Silver vs. Jimmmmm, and really to me it's Ichi vs. Silver.

There's something to be said for not lynching either and people doing their thing.  If silver jailkeeps, that means those people can't be investigated, though.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Ichi, result?

I diagnosed jothenoah last night and was told he was unable to kill. I picked him since he was one of the scummier players to me at the time--and he's received pretty low suspicion. Also, from what I can tell, he's a strong town player (when he is in fact town), so semi-confirming his alignment would hopefully make people listen to him more.

[Ichimaru Gin]

*jotheonah 

[Eevee]

Sorry guys, I had a really busy weekend. Not that I would have had anything to add to the claiming discussion anyways.

So, the topic of defending myself, I'm stumped. Killing me after I was so wrong about Hydrad feels SO weird. What other motivation could they have? I was pretty firmly pro-silverspawn, so a team with him likely wouldn't do it. I was relatively pro-Jimmm, so I think it makes him look better too. I was hard on IG, and joth to an extent, so my first inclination is that one of them would be the liar.

Of the VT's, I need to reread the end of yesterday to get an idea. I'll be getting on that now.

[Eevee]

If there's no SK, there's guaranteed scum in me/silver.

And this of course contradicts with the earlier logic 100%. No way scum AND the SK tried to kill me..

Joth's breadcrum also looks believable.

One possibility is of course that scum thought I breadcrumbed/pr-slipped, I have had a tendency to use wordings that seem to mean more than they do in the past. I'm currently very lost, starting that reread now.

I will say that my vote obviously goes to killing one of the claimants and jailkeeping me

[Eevee]

Vote Count 2.4

Jimmmmm (2): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin
Hydrad (1): Witherweaver
Ichimaru Gin (3): jotheonah, silverspawn, Eevee
ashersky (1): Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): faust, ashersky

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

That's in 12 hours!

admin note: I may or may not be on at deadline.  If not, you can expect a flip by 10:00PM forum time (unless it happens sooner)

So, this was the situation 12 hours prior to the deadline. We didn't just default to a Hydrad lynch, someone made it happen and hopefully more people than myself tried to oppose it.

I think hydrad may be happening

vote: Hydrad

See this is exactly what I didn't want to see happening. Stick to your guns, silver! Let's make Ichi the default lynch!

This started the push towards Hydrad. Lots of town points to silver, scum points to joth.

I prefer Ichi to Hydrad. Vote: Ichi

well then I'll

vote: Ichi

aswell

This negates some of the town points from silver. Jimm also looks worse.


Next up is me disagreeing with Hydrad and WW pushing Hydrad, so town points for WW as well, not that he was in the lynch pool for today anyways.

Can anyone (other than Hydrad) convince why I should not vote for Hydrad?

I'll give it a go. Letting Ichi get away and last-minute lynching Hydrad feels extremely reminiscent of the ending of day 1 to me and I have no reason to believe it will end differently.

Someone being on most everybody's "would lynch" list is a pretty good indication they're town anyway.

Joth defending Hydrad some more.

yea so, let's just do Ichi. He is at L-1.

Had silver stayed on Hydrad the entire time, I think it would have gone long ways towards clearing him. Now, not so much.

Okay, setup says scum get safe fake claims, so maybe.  But why wouldn't he use his fake claim Day 1?  Scum mentality would be to claim so that he wouldn't get lynched.. worry about arguing why he's still alive later.  I don't think he'd be so forward thinking to think "Well, if I really was an investigator, I wouldn't claim with no result because that doesn't help town.  I'd try to fight my lynch and claim with something useful later."  That's much more likely to come from town, and would only come from scum if they're thinking really big picture with all the contingencies.  Ichi has been scum, like, once?

This is a good point.

unvote

If Ichi is not scum, that makes me feel worse about the Hydrad lynch too. So, at this point, maybe Jimmm is the best option.

Yeah, the first towny push on Hydrad has now changed to trying to get us into other direction. Silver not feeling towny anymore.

vote: Hydrad

That's L-3. He only has two votes (WW and me)

vote: Hydrad

WW makes some good points. We can worry about IG tomorrow if he survives the night.

Silver and Joth then revive the Hydrad wagon (towny).

Well, that was unnecessary.

Vote: Jimmmmm for now.

faust's first contribution to this. scummy, this was a very pivotal point.

That said, I'll hammer if needed before deadline.

We have some time for talking though.

Jimmmmm, are you around?

Not a good look for ash, another person trying to push us to Jimm.

well, I got to go. But no way scum!Jimmmmm is actually just not around at deadline. I think Eevee and ash should switch to Hydrad.

Town points for joth.

vote: hydrad


Jimmmmm (4): Hydrad, Ichimaru Gin, faust, Eevee
Hydrad (4): Witherweaver, jotheonah, silverspawn, ashersky
Ichimaru Gin (1): Jimmmmm




Hydrad also at L-1.  If Jimmmmm returns, I expect he'd hammer out of self-preservation...

Town points for ash, nothing really changed but he went back to Hydrad, knowing that Jimmm would likely hammer him if he appeared.




And that was all. Well, it's not very clear, I look terrible which isn't helpful because I know I'm town.

With the lack of kills, I'm fine assuming no SK, which mean IG had to be truthful, right?

Of the three other claimants, joth came off towniest, for sure. Jimmm didn't really do anything but the self-preservation hammer like he had to, he wasn't around to push us to either direction, so no read either way there. Silver was going back and forth a lot, could be scum balancing saving partner and not being obvious, or could be indecisive town. Ash looks towny for ultimately making Hydrad possible, WW looks towny for continuously pushing him (WW looks the towniest of all, I think), and faust looks scummy for his only contribution was trying to deflect away from Hydrad.

Gah.