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[ashersky]

Time for a popsquiz!

Ordered as DS (Definitely Scum) to OMDB (Over My Dead Body):

faust
mail-mi
Raptor
Glooble
EFHW
MiX
Lekkit
scola
Lalight
WCD
cayvie
shraeye
No Lynch
ADK
ash
Jimmmmm
2.7

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.5:


Ashersky (4): EFHW, Glooble, LaLight, scolapasta
E! (3): faust, Cayvie, Mail-Mi
LaLight (2): E!, WCD
EFHW (2): ADK, MiX
Shraeye (1): RaptorSlayer
faust (1): Ashersky
Scolapasta (1): Shraeye
Mail-Mi (1): Jimmm


Not Voting (1):  Lekkit,


Deadline is 9:15pm Forum Time on March 24th.

Assuming 9 to lynch?

[cayvie]

vote: scolapasta

Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11?  Or that the deck is marked?  Or could faust have just been lucky?  I am continually waiting for some explanation or proof how faust knows his 13 guesses are all very nearly perfect.

I don't think anyone's suggesting that "Flipping two correct is proof that faust knows the other 11".
Hypothesis: The mods generally tried to align the flavour and mechanics of the items.
Result: 2 items have mechanics in line with their flavour.
Conclusion: The hypothesis is very likely correct.

Obviously any two people could have different ideas how of what an item should do, but given that 2/2 items match, it's very likely that the mods in fact did try to do this.

And now back to the debate!

When you've quoted faust, you've left out a key part of what he said:"As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye"

I don't think faust was claiming that all 13 objects he guessed where correct (even if her were scum, how would he be able to confirm 13?), just that, as Jimmmmm captures above, it is possible to have a guess based on item name. i.e. that knowing someone's item can give you some idea of their role.

And my "not buying it" is that it feels like you are deliberately taking faust out of that context, in order to create chaos and suspicion.

to me, in the context of his other posts, this post reads as full of relief that he gets to weigh in on the correct (sorry Ash) side of an argument with gusto. it's stressful pretending to scumhunt! what a blessing to see a townie being logically wrong and to be able to argue against him!

[LaLight]

unvote, ash came to our qt

this whole clairvoyance argument is super weird, i feel like it some meta argument, or overly sarcastic, and i don't know what is going on

I don't want to lynch e, his move is very pro-town

I don't want to lynch ash as of now

vote: mail-mi

[faust]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

The post in question.  You said you made guesses and 13 items. You said you weren’t very far off based on what you knew at the time of posting.

I am not putting words in your mouth.  You are saying in the post above that you made guesses and then you were not “very far off” on those 13 guesses. That is what your sentences say.  Another way of saying not very far off would be “pretty close” right?

So then your explanation for how you were able to be pretty close on 13 guesses was saying you knew two items.

I am saying that is weaksauce.  How does knowing two items tell you that you were not “very far off” on 13? 

I did not put words in your mouth.  And how does this counter shraeye?  It makes his point — you can’t know for sure what any items are before getting them.  To counter that point, you need to show that players did or do know what all the items are without gaining them. I thought you were doing that by claiming to know 13 items somehow based on guesses.  The only way that works is clairvoyance, hyper intelligence, hacking, or cheating.  Or you have a greater number of data points due to your alignment or role.

So, as I’ve established not putting words in your mouth, please explain how you were so close on exactly 13, items, why only 13 and not 20, and who your scum partners are.

And no, my district mate told me his item is not an explanation for anything.  Nor is your own item, as that only confirms one out of the 13 that you clearly claim you were very close on. Please tell us how you know all 13 are very close.

I know that there is always a disconnect when I try to talk to you about probability so I won't try to argue how being right about two randomly chosen things is evidence that the rest are correct. You seem to be making the argument that I am scum and thus I actually knew the more items were correct, and I scumslipped. But by your own logic, knowing 5 also wouldn't tell me anything about the others, so I still couldn't know that all 13 were correct.

[faust]

What you had for breakfast today?  Whether Disney will make Frozen 3?

Scrambled eggs with toast. Yes, but it will be a live action remake.

[faust]

I mean, as he refuses to confirm his clairvoyance in thread, I hope there's a time-stamped QT post we can check after the game to see.  I wonder if bow/arrow was on his guess list and he said "1-Shot Vigilante" in it.  I wonder if he guessed my item, and how in the world he could have gotten it right given what I know about it.

If this isn't proof that our disagreement has nothing to do with my alignment, I don't know what is. You are looking to resolve this conflict after the game; if this were about my alignment, it would no longer be relevant after the game.

[faust]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

For the apologists who claim I'm just misunderstanding his wording...the statement in full, explained with color-coding:

"I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now."

In all cases, the "I" in that sentence refers to faust.
Per the statement:
--faust made 13 guesses
--faust made those guesses prior to drafting
--his qualitative statement regarding those guesses is based off of the cumulative knowledge he has gain up to the point of posting that statement
--his guesses were not very far off, where I posit "very far off" would mean "very inaccurate"

If faust wants to retcon an "ash just can't understand" explanation into this, his only real leg to stand on is to argue that "not very far off" meant "not very inaccurate" which can technically be taken to mean just "inaccurate" as oppose to "very inaccurate."  However, given he was using this statement to counter the argument that the items cannot be known in advance, that would seem disingenuous to me.

I wrote "based on what I know now". I knew what 2 of the items of the items did. They roughly matched what I imagined. Based on this being all information available to you, if you had to make a guess whether another item was also close to what I predicted, what would it be?

[faust]

Is 2 out of 13 of a set of 20 a generally accepted scientific standard to prove a hypothesis?  Like, "hey, this medicine worked on 2 out of 13 people, must work for all!"?

I really don't know, as I'm no scientist.  But seems suspect.

No, clearly every medicine is tested on all 8 billion people living on the planet before it is released.

[faust]

I mean, is the argument between “inherently unknowable” (shraeye) and “inherently knowable” (faust)?

Seems to me a more nuanced answer in the middle is likely.  It’s not like Trident awarded someone with Congrats, you are Tridely, the Trident-Wielder; at night you may stab someone with your trident.

Maybe trident is a lightning rod, maybe it is of decorative use, maybe it is huge and you can hide behind it. 

Was one of my guesses right?  Possible.  Does that make the items “inherently knowable”?  No. That just makes me lucky. (Or familiar with flavor.)

The Jimmmmm explanations are much more believable to me than the faust one, and is closer to correct in my opinion than the shraeye one.

I agree with all that is said here.

[faust]

Sorry for spamming the thread with more of this, I had a bad case of "someone is wrong on the internet", I know this stuff doesn't help anybody for the actual purposes of the game.

[faust]

I think we can conclude that there is a (likely quite substantial) subset of the items for which the flavour helps inform the function, but that doesn't necessarily hold true for every single item.

It's insane to think that it was totally randomized.  And it's insane to think that any player can 100% guess everything at this point.  My contention is that WE DO NOT KNOW what #1 drafted.  Mix apparently thinks he does.  I get the impression that other people think so as well.  Or at least think that "earlier drafting = more powerful item". 

The subset of "early drafters" might very well have overall more powerful items, but I don't understand how in the face of so much uncertainty (item-meaning, possibly getting blocked from your first choice, and what powers each player ranks as "best") people are still worried that revealing the draft order will give scum an advantage.

That's the point I was trying to make, and apparently it's turned into a totally irrelevant philosophical crisis.

I would agree that it's hard to know the power level of things - like, you could probably guess that Bow and Arrow does some sort of killing, but there's a long dstance to go there from "1-shot Weak Vigilante" to "Strongman Full Vigilante".

So it doesn't matter too much right now. But having claimed stuff like first round/second round definitely helps scum later down the line, when they might already know certain powers are in the game (for example because they were roleblocked), to pinpoint which items could give that sort of power and thus PoE which remaining player has which power based on which pool the item was in.

[faust]

vote: scolapasta

Alright then.

b]Vote: scolapasta[/b]

[faust]

Whoops.

Vote: scolapasta

[ashersky]

Is 2 out of 13 of a set of 20 a generally accepted scientific standard to prove a hypothesis?  Like, "hey, this medicine worked on 2 out of 13 people, must work for all!"?

I really don't know, as I'm no scientist.  But seems suspect.

No, clearly every medicine is tested on all 8 billion people living on the planet before it is released.

Nice straw man.  I am not arguing about approval for release — only that a positive result for two does not prove a positive result will occur for the rest. 

Some medicine works for people and not for others.  They still release it.  I assume it is tested on more than two people, but I’m not in that industry.  However, the failure of some medicines to work on some people proves my point that you cannot possibly know the nature of every single item that the mods created without cheating.

[ashersky]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

For the apologists who claim I'm just misunderstanding his wording...the statement in full, explained with color-coding:

"I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now."

In all cases, the "I" in that sentence refers to faust.
Per the statement:
--faust made 13 guesses
--faust made those guesses prior to drafting
--his qualitative statement regarding those guesses is based off of the cumulative knowledge he has gain up to the point of posting that statement
--his guesses were not very far off, where I posit "very far off" would mean "very inaccurate"

If faust wants to retcon an "ash just can't understand" explanation into this, his only real leg to stand on is to argue that "not very far off" meant "not very inaccurate" which can technically be taken to mean just "inaccurate" as oppose to "very inaccurate."  However, given he was using this statement to counter the argument that the items cannot be known in advance, that would seem disingenuous to me.

I wrote "based on what I know now". I knew what 2 of the items of the items did. They roughly matched what I imagined. Based on this being all information available to you, if you had to make a guess whether another item was also close to what I predicted, what would it be?

I would guess that you would be wrong.  Chance of flipping heads that many times in a row is tiny, no?  And given you have two outcomes — right or wrong — and each time is a random guess...

Do you really not see the arrogance in your statement? 

I’m not a doctor nor do I have any medical training.  20 people I have never met before come up to me, all suffering from unknown illnesses.  I make guesses for how to cure them.  The first two work!  I declare myself a superhuman god with amazing powers none has ever seen before and now all of humanity (well, those 20 at least) are saved.

That’s what you did, just with different subjects.  That of you are mafia, which would excuse everything.

Just lynch me if you are going to maintain this charade.

[ashersky]

I mean, as he refuses to confirm his clairvoyance in thread, I hope there's a time-stamped QT post we can check after the game to see.  I wonder if bow/arrow was on his guess list and he said "1-Shot Vigilante" in it.  I wonder if he guessed my item, and how in the world he could have gotten it right given what I know about it.

If this isn't proof that our disagreement has nothing to do with my alignment, I don't know what is. You are looking to resolve this conflict after the game; if this were about my alignment, it would no longer be relevant after the game.

I know you don’t have it.  This proves me right when the inevitable occurs (me lynched before you) and you get your flawless scum won. My “hope” statement there is sarcastic.

[ashersky]

As a more contrete (maybe) counter to shraeye: I made guesses prior to drafting on what powers 13 of the 20 items give, and I wasn't very far off based on what I know now.

The post in question.  You said you made guesses and 13 items. You said you weren’t very far off based on what you knew at the time of posting.

I am not putting words in your mouth.  You are saying in the post above that you made guesses and then you were not “very far off” on those 13 guesses. That is what your sentences say.  Another way of saying not very far off would be “pretty close” right?

So then your explanation for how you were able to be pretty close on 13 guesses was saying you knew two items.

I am saying that is weaksauce.  How does knowing two items tell you that you were not “very far off” on 13? 

I did not put words in your mouth.  And how does this counter shraeye?  It makes his point — you can’t know for sure what any items are before getting them.  To counter that point, you need to show that players did or do know what all the items are without gaining them. I thought you were doing that by claiming to know 13 items somehow based on guesses.  The only way that works is clairvoyance, hyper intelligence, hacking, or cheating.  Or you have a greater number of data points due to your alignment or role.

So, as I’ve established not putting words in your mouth, please explain how you were so close on exactly 13, items, why only 13 and not 20, and who your scum partners are.

And no, my district mate told me his item is not an explanation for anything.  Nor is your own item, as that only confirms one out of the 13 that you clearly claim you were very close on. Please tell us how you know all 13 are very close.

I know that there is always a disconnect when I try to talk to you about probability so I won't try to argue how being right about two randomly chosen things is evidence that the rest are correct. You seem to be making the argument that I am scum and thus I actually knew the more items were correct, and I scumslipped. But by your own logic, knowing 5 also wouldn't tell me anything about the others, so I still couldn't know that all 13 were correct.

Probability has nothing to do with it since your statement expresses certainty, not probability.

[ashersky]

I mean, is the argument between “inherently unknowable” (shraeye) and “inherently knowable” (faust)?

Seems to me a more nuanced answer in the middle is likely.  It’s not like Trident awarded someone with Congrats, you are Tridely, the Trident-Wielder; at night you may stab someone with your trident.

Maybe trident is a lightning rod, maybe it is of decorative use, maybe it is huge and you can hide behind it. 

Was one of my guesses right?  Possible.  Does that make the items “inherently knowable”?  No. That just makes me lucky. (Or familiar with flavor.)

The Jimmmmm explanations are much more believable to me than the faust one, and is closer to correct in my opinion than the shraeye one.

I agree with all that is said here.

I suggest you take that back.  I literally argued against your statement.  So you agree you are wrong?  Or admit that you are lying?

[ashersky]

I wish I had gotten the gladiator item.  Faust, which one was that?

[ashersky]

Actually, just thought of a way that faust is both telling the truth and correct.

His list of twenty guesses is just "some role that can be used in a mafia game."

[ashersky]

I leave you all with this.

I've provided some reasoning for why I think faust is scum and lying -- you may not agree with it, or feel it is compelling, or sensible, but at least I've provided it.

faust has done nothing to explain why my scum motivations for this.  Wouldn't town!faust, or at least pro-town!faust, want to do so?  He's not even voting for me right now -- scum not wanting to look like he's taking advantage?  Yet another suspicious action on his part.

[faust]

faust has done nothing to explain why my scum motivations for this.  Wouldn't town!faust, or at least pro-town!faust, want to do so?  He's not even voting for me right now -- scum not wanting to look like he's taking advantage?  Yet another suspicious action on his part.

Well I have no reason to think you're scum. Is not OMGUSing now a scumtell?

[faust]

I agree with all that is said here.

I suggest you take that back.  I literally argued against your statement.  So you agree you are wrong?  Or admit that you are lying?
[/quote]
I maintain that none of my statements are in contradiction to that post. For one, you will note that I only made guesses on 13 of 20 items - because I couldn't come up with good guesses for the rest.

[faust]

Dammit, misquoted, sorry.