I don't think anything comes even close to Chapel. If your opponent opens 5/2 and you don't and there's a $5 worth opening with, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel collides with your other card, you're pretty screwed. If your Chapel misses the reshuffle, you're completely screwed. At least Sauna gives you a chance to recover by including two separate splits, both of which you want to win so even if you fall behind on trashing, you can win the splits to make up for it a little, although it's also a pretty big offender.
I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.
I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.
*cough Black Market *cough
Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.
To me it's Swindler.
I feel like what makes Chapel swingy isn't that different from what makes any game swingy, but with Swindler the swinginess is built into the card (more or less).
A turn 3 Swindler could trash an Estate for an Estate, potentially helping your opponent; or it could turn their 5-cost buy into a Duchy before they get to use it once.
okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff
Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?
If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
This is from sample of 2.5 M iso games.
The measure is how hard a time trueskill had at predicting the winner, measured in conditional entropy given a card was in the supply.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_entropy
Goons 0.689 ± 0.002
Colony 0.694 ± 0.001
Platinum 0.694 ± 0.001
Bishop 0.695 ± 0.002
Ambassador 0.695 ± 0.002
Grand Market 0.696 ± 0.002
Black Market 0.696 ± 0.002
Worker's Village 0.697 ± 0.002
Chapel 0.697 ± 0.002
Peddler 0.698 ± 0.002
Young Witch 0.698 ± 0.003
Expand 0.699 ± 0.002
Masquerade 0.699 ± 0.002
Hunting Party 0.699 ± 0.002
Witch 0.700 ± 0.002
Ghost Ship 0.700 ± 0.002
Hamlet 0.700 ± 0.002
Mountebank 0.700 ± 0.002
Minion 0.700 ± 0.002
King's Court 0.700 ± 0.002
Sea Hag 0.700 ± 0.002
City 0.700 ± 0.002
Scrying Pool 0.700 ± 0.002
Menagerie 0.700 ± 0.002
Festival 0.701 ± 0.002
Torturer 0.701 ± 0.002
Steward 0.701 ± 0.002
Apprentice 0.701 ± 0.002
Familiar 0.701 ± 0.003
Forge 0.701 ± 0.002
Walled Village 0.702 ± 0.002
Trade Route 0.702 ± 0.002
Fishing Village 0.702 ± 0.002
Tournament 0.702 ± 0.002
Village 0.703 ± 0.002
Quarry 0.703 ± 0.002
Market 0.703 ± 0.002
Mint 0.703 ± 0.002
Ill-Gotten Gains 0.703 ± 0.003
University 0.703 ± 0.002
Pirate Ship 0.703 ± 0.002
Ironworks 0.703 ± 0.002
Upgrade 0.703 ± 0.002
Talisman 0.703 ± 0.002
Bridge 0.704 ± 0.002
Great Hall 0.704 ± 0.002
Vineyard 0.704 ± 0.002
Outpost 0.704 ± 0.002
Scheme 0.704 ± 0.003
Remake 0.704 ± 0.002
Border Village 0.704 ± 0.003
Remodel 0.704 ± 0.002
Warehouse 0.704 ± 0.002
Thief 0.704 ± 0.002
Salvager 0.704 ± 0.002
Wharf 0.705 ± 0.002
Spice Merchant 0.705 ± 0.003
Haven 0.705 ± 0.002
Mining Village 0.705 ± 0.002
Farming Village 0.705 ± 0.002
Rabble 0.705 ± 0.002
Contraband 0.705 ± 0.002
Potion 0.706 ± 0.001
Workshop 0.706 ± 0.002
Bazaar 0.706 ± 0.002
Fairgrounds 0.706 ± 0.002
Woodcutter 0.706 ± 0.002
Native Village 0.706 ± 0.002
Alchemist 0.706 ± 0.002
Watchtower 0.706 ± 0.002
Horse Traders 0.707 ± 0.002
Throne Room 0.707 ± 0.002
Fortune Teller 0.707 ± 0.002
Governor 0.707 ± 0.003
Lookout 0.707 ± 0.002
Mine 0.707 ± 0.002
Archivist 0.707 ± 0.038
Spy 0.707 ± 0.002
Apothecary 0.708 ± 0.002
Farmland 0.708 ± 0.003
Monument 0.708 ± 0.002
Tactician 0.708 ± 0.002
Smugglers 0.708 ± 0.002
Loan 0.708 ± 0.002
Transmute 0.708 ± 0.002
Envoy 0.708 ± 0.002
Inn 0.708 ± 0.003
Venture 0.708 ± 0.002
Crossroads 0.708 ± 0.003
Militia 0.708 ± 0.002
Nomad Camp 0.708 ± 0.003
Trading Post 0.708 ± 0.002
Duke 0.708 ± 0.002
Wishing Well 0.708 ± 0.002
Bureaucrat 0.708 ± 0.002
Secret Chamber 0.708 ± 0.002
Bank 0.708 ± 0.002
Herbalist 0.708 ± 0.002
Pawn 0.708 ± 0.002
Horn of Plenty 0.708 ± 0.002
Royal Seal 0.708 ± 0.002
Nobles 0.708 ± 0.002
Cartographer 0.709 ± 0.003
Mandarin 0.709 ± 0.003
Counting House 0.709 ± 0.002
Vault 0.709 ± 0.002
Harvest 0.709 ± 0.002
Highway 0.709 ± 0.003
Island 0.709 ± 0.002
Explorer 0.709 ± 0.002
Navigator 0.709 ± 0.002
Saboteur 0.709 ± 0.003
Cellar 0.709 ± 0.002
Coppersmith 0.709 ± 0.002
Shanty Town 0.709 ± 0.002
Pearl Diver 0.709 ± 0.002
Conspirator 0.709 ± 0.002
Cutpurse 0.709 ± 0.002
Feast 0.709 ± 0.002
Moneylender 0.709 ± 0.002
Laboratory 0.710 ± 0.002
Margrave 0.710 ± 0.003
Courtyard 0.710 ± 0.002
Develop 0.710 ± 0.003
Jester 0.710 ± 0.002
Hoard 0.710 ± 0.002
Philosopher's Stone 0.710 ± 0.002
Tunnel 0.710 ± 0.003
Haggler 0.710 ± 0.003
Tribute 0.710 ± 0.002
Baron 0.710 ± 0.002
Harem 0.710 ± 0.002
Fool's Gold 0.710 ± 0.003
Gardens 0.710 ± 0.002
Possession 0.710 ± 0.003
Adventurer 0.710 ± 0.002
Silk Road 0.710 ± 0.003
Oracle 0.710 ± 0.003
Scout 0.710 ± 0.002
Stash 0.711 ± 0.002
Oasis 0.711 ± 0.003
Golem 0.711 ± 0.002
Council Room 0.711 ± 0.002
Stables 0.711 ± 0.003
Moat 0.711 ± 0.002
Noble Brigand 0.711 ± 0.003
Swindler 0.711 ± 0.002
Embargo 0.712 ± 0.002
Caravan 0.712 ± 0.002
Chancellor 0.712 ± 0.002
Treasury 0.713 ± 0.002
Duchess 0.713 ± 0.003
Treasure Map 0.713 ± 0.002
Library 0.713 ± 0.002
Smithy 0.713 ± 0.002
Trader 0.713 ± 0.003
Merchant Ship 0.714 ± 0.002
Lighthouse 0.714 ± 0.002
Cache 0.714 ± 0.003
Jack of All Trades 0.714 ± 0.003
Embassy 0.714 ± 0.003
Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?
If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?
If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
okay now that I remember Sentry exists it is definitely the absolute swingiest card here because my opponents somehow always manage to repeatedly trash two cards while it consistently collides with my good stuff
Yes, in retrospect I wish I had suggested "You may trash one of them. You may discard one of them. Put the rest back in any order." Maybe it would have been too weak that way, dunno.
Mountebank is pretty swingy on 5/2. I've lost to much less skilled opponents just because they were able to open MB.
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?
If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
The rrenaud thing I love linking to is of course the first metric. Embassy makes the game more about luck by making skill less relevant; I don't need to do anything clever, I can just buy Embassy. The tricky things you can do may be competitive, but they don't just beat up the Embassy guy. In multiplayer it's magnified; I always remember that game from a few years back where three people had turn one Embassy. My buys went Embassy, nothing, Embassy, Province, Province, Province, Province. I did not learn anything about whatever we were playtesting.
Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.
The games in which you can just buy Embassy and win feel pretty rare nowadays.he said, looking wistfully at the setting sun
Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.
I think there are two metrics to consider here. There's "how much does the presence of this card in the game downplay skill" and there's "how much can one draw of this card vary."Swingy in Dominion context means that it's quite luck dependant -> the less skilled player is more likely to win, right?
If so, I think Chapel is one of the least swingy cards in the game. My vote would go to either Swindler or Jack
I'm not sure that's actually a good measure. At least, it doesn't really fit my definition of "swinginess" at all. That definition is more, "is this card both strong and simple to use?" If so, then yeah obviously it's going to favor the less skilled player. Embassy does not seem luck-dependent to me. Quite the opposite, in fact; it sifts as it draws. But it is a card that has a very simple strategy, so sometimes a novice player employing that strategy will beat the more nuanced deck. Ditto Jack of all Trades.
The rrenaud thing I love linking to is of course the first metric. Embassy makes the game more about luck by making skill less relevant; I don't need to do anything clever, I can just buy Embassy. The tricky things you can do may be competitive, but they don't just beat up the Embassy guy. In multiplayer it's magnified; I always remember that game from a few years back where three people had turn one Embassy. My buys went Embassy, nothing, Embassy, Province, Province, Province, Province. I did not learn anything about whatever we were playtesting.
Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.
Well, cards that work in strong simple strategies favor weak players for sure, but in a match-up between two highly skilled players, Embassy doesn't really favor the slightly less skilled player as much as something like Chapel does. It depends on the board of course; if it's just Embassy/BM and there's nothing better either player could do, it's just a matter of luck basically, but more often than not, there's an engine that can beat the BM. For example, maybe on a certain board, I would have a 30% chance of beating Stef with Embassy/BM, which is actually pretty good if you're not very skilled, but being me, I might want to aim for something like 40% so I would mirror his strategy anyway. And if there's Chapel, that's a great opportunity for him to draw badly.
Tournament is an example of the second. Maybe you draw it with Province, maybe you don't; it's a big difference. This makes it feel like it's all about luck, even though the card actually favors the better player.
Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.
Edit: more to the point, I'm not sure you and Donald actually disagree on anything, I think you're just arguing from different definitions.
Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.
Totally anecdotal but last night I played a game where my opponent opened tournament/silver and then played tournament/silver + 4 coppers to buy inheritance to play on silver, then he bought a Province the next turn and immediately started buying up more provinces and winning prizes.
You…can't inherit Silver? It's not an Action card. Or am I misunderstanding what happened?
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
Similar to the Mountebank argument made earlier, I don't see how this means Mint is swingy. It just means Dominion's rules for starting hands can be swingy. There are many scenarios where 5/2 gives one player a huge advantage. I don't think that makes all of the 5 cards in those scenarios "swingy".
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
Similar to the Mountebank argument made earlier, I don't see how this means Mint is swingy. It just means Dominion's rules for starting hands can be swingy. There are many scenarios where 5/2 gives one player a huge advantage. I don't think that makes all of the 5 cards in those scenarios "swingy".
I would argue Mint is an exception to this as how you pay for Mint makes a difference. It is at its best when it is bought using 5 Coppers. The most likely time to see a 5 Copper hand is a 5/2 opening.
It can also be swingy later on. For example after opening Silver/Silver, you would buy a Mint on turn 3 with a 5 Copper hand, you wouldn't with a 2 Silver, Copper, 2 Estate hand. You would buy a Mountebank with either hand.
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)
I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.
Tournament definitely leads to me resigning more than any other card on this list. Once they get two more Prizes than me, I feel like that's it, game over. (Assuming I was going for Tournament too, which I basically always do.)
All that said, I'm guessing Chapel is actually more swingy, and I voted for that.
I went with Tournament. The fact that it requires more steps to pull off I think makes it more swingy.
Tournament definitely leads to me resigning more than any other card on this list. Once they get two more Prizes than me, I feel like that's it, game over. (Assuming I was going for Tournament too, which I basically always do.)
All that said, I'm guessing Chapel is actually more swingy, and I voted for that.
Wow, I've won many a game where the opponent took all the prizes completely uncontested.
Followers is best understood as a weaker version of buying the only Goons off the black market. It has no buy and the net VP effect of curses can be trashed. Good players know how to not be slowed down too much by its Militia attack.Followers is the only double attack in the game and thus the strongest attack card. Unless there are other Cursers in the Kingdom (Cursers are rarely weak; even in a Kingdom with Chapel you might go for that Witch) such that the Curse pile is (nearly) empty and there are decent ways to defend against handsize attacks which has probably less to do with player strength than with the particularities of the respective Kingdom.
Followers is the only double attack in the game and thus the strongest attack card.
Followers is best understood as a weaker version of buying the only Goons off the black market.
Followers is the only double attack in the game and thus the strongest attack card.
There is also catapult. Furthermore, Sea Hags topdecking can be seen as an additional attack.
The draw of Followers is more significant than any "double attack" aspect.Other way around. Without the double attack it would be something worse than Moat.
The draw of Followers is more significant than any "double attack" aspect.Other way around. Without the double attack it would be something worse than Moat.
Your concept of "double attack" is just a misunderstanding of what Followers does to VP and deck size, since it's self-junking. Followers' effect is in fact weaker than Goons because the curses can be trashed or blocked, and also the first few times it's played the player would prefer to not gain estates.Sure, most of the times (i.e. unless it is late in the game when you'd actually want Estates) you'd prefer Followers to be a pure Curser. But it is still an attack and in Kingdoms without trashers the 2VP difference is permanent.
You keeping assessing it as a doom-bringing junking attack instead of +2VP, so I guess we aren't making any progress on that front.I don't think that your snarkiness is warranted.
I already said it can decide games. Surely we all here know something of the ways in which it can decide games. But thanks for the update.
I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard.I don't disagree with that but I think that this is overdetermined by the fact that Cultist is overpowered.
I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard.I don't disagree with that but I think that this is overdetermined by the fact that Cultist is overpowered.
I don't agree entirely. You are right that a weak and swingy card is not really relevant as its risk does not impact the game much. But I don't think that the opposite is true, i.e. that a swingy card has to be strong to really impact the game. Swindler and Tournament are in my opinion medium power level cards and unlike Cultist not crazily overpowered and yet a single play of them can significantly change the game.I would say that swingiest card is cultist. Cultist bm is often dominant and given how fast it is one couldn't recover from losing ruin split 7-3 unless there is vineyard.I don't disagree with that but I think that this is overdetermined by the fact that Cultist is overpowered.
That isn't surprising as card needs to be strong to affect outcome in significant manner. Otherwise I could say that scout was very swingy as you could remove three estates with it or none.
Really? Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur. Trashing provinces with sab while your opponent's sabs hit silver is the difference between winning and losing in the late game - if both players go Sab. Chances are if one player goes Sab and one doesn't, the Sab player just loses anyway because god that card is bad.
And despite being enormously swingy it's not even on this list.
Really? Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.Saboteur is not so much weak as it is terribroken; it flips from "so weak it should be ignored" to "so strong it dominates the board" very quickly depending on how often you can play it. (Once per turn is probably about the tipping point.)
*cough Black Market *cough
Nope, Black market isn't swingy at all, but there are some people who like to blame their losses on this card.
If to you "swingy" means something that often gives one player a strong early advantage that the other often has insufficient good chances of countering, Black Market is not swingy.
You can have unlucky outcomes with the Black Market that determine some games, we know this.= swing
But at the same time it also leads to many more important choices that are in the player's control, not fewer, and so is possibly the best card in all Dominion in terms of rewarding skilled play.
= swingOn occasions, yes. Stef did oversimplify things by saying Black Market isn't swingy "at all", but he's right to consider it an uninteresting aspect of the card. It's not the most interesting thing about BM, and nor is it interesting to compare it to the top tier of cards which do tend to more deterministically swing games.
I think Alms deserves special mention.
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)
I think Alms deserves special mention.
Mint can also be very swingy if one player gets a 5/2 start and there other cards that support a Mint opening.
But there are very few cards that do - basically only Fool's Gold and $2- cards that guarantee a $3-4 turn on the second shuffle, i.e. Poor House and Secret Chamber (RIP).
(Baker and Borrow don't count here because they remove the swinginess of the opening.)
That being said I think Alms deserves special mention for basically making 5/2 hands insanely good always, but Mint>Alms (Salvager) just feels brutally unfair.
Really? Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.Saboteur is not so much weak as it is terribroken; it flips from "so weak it should be ignored" to "so strong it dominates the board" very quickly depending on how often you can play it. (Once per turn is probably about the tipping point.)
Really? Because I'll offer an incredibly weak, incredibly swingy card: Saboteur.Saboteur is not so much weak as it is terribroken; it flips from "so weak it should be ignored" to "so strong it dominates the board" very quickly depending on how often you can play it. (Once per turn is probably about the tipping point.)
Also it isn't very swingy, in moneyish boards odds that it helps you are astronomical. You would rather buy duchy. Even if sab hits province that opponents changes into duchy its same vp swing as buying duchy.
In engines where you play multiple sabs skill is deciding factor. What really matters is to get engine operational fast and play more sabs than opponent buys. Before that one could relatively easily replace engine components. It doesn't matter much what those sabs hit as you need to reduce opponent deck until it collapses.
You can easily hedge yourself against the risk of getting a Warrior trashed by an opponent's Warrior via buying several Pages.
Warrior is a fairly harmless attack and in my experience less swingy or devastating than some Knight Kingdoms.