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[Teproc]

Debating whether I should wait for faust to give my thoughts, but I guess I still have some rereading to do as well.

I think we want people to state how available they are going to be in the next two days.

One thing that I haven't seen people talk about is the Candidates QT. It's not the most relevant thing, and obviously not everyone has access to it, but it's probably worth taking a look at for those who can, given how many of the Candidates are still around.

[O]

Yea this is all just making me want to lynch space even more now.

it is a fair point that they are probably the watcher, so not a poisoner, and that they could give us something useful tomorrow or be killed and resolved that way if town.

what are your thoughts on swan, O?

mostly similar to Space except that scummy people are much more willing to lynch Swan than space.

[Galzria]

Debating whether I should wait for faust to give my thoughts, but I guess I still have some rereading to do as well.

I think we want people to state how available they are going to be in the next two days.

One thing that I haven't seen people talk about is the Candidates QT. It's not the most relevant thing, and obviously not everyone has access to it, but it's probably worth taking a look at for those who can, given how many of the Candidates are still around.

Teproc, Time Machine for me for a moment:

You win the SM investigation N1. Who do you investigate?

[Galzria]

Yea this is all just making me want to lynch space even more now.

it is a fair point that they are probably the watcher, so not a poisoner, and that they could give us something useful tomorrow or be killed and resolved that way if town.

what are your thoughts on swan, O?

mostly similar to Space except that scummy people are much more willing to lynch Swan than space.

That's hardly evidence you were willing to lynch Swan yesterday. Go back and reread yourself and Teproc. Sure, there's the occasional mention that he's on your lists (or in your pools, or whatever) - but there was no actual effort visible from an outside-your-heads perspective that honestly supports your willingness to consider him a lynch candidate.

[Galzria]

Yea this is all just making me want to lynch space even more now.

it is a fair point that they are probably the watcher, so not a poisoner, and that they could give us something useful tomorrow or be killed and resolved that way if town.

what are your thoughts on swan, O?

mostly similar to Space except that scummy people are much more willing to lynch Swan than space.

That's hardly evidence you were willing to lynch Swan yesterday. Go back and reread yourself and Teproc. Sure, there's the occasional mention that he's on your lists (or in your pools, or whatever) - but there was no actual effort visible from an outside-your-heads perspective that honestly supports your willingness to consider him a lynch candidate.

It's not a criticism, just an observation. I don't think anybody looking at the day would've seriously considered a likelihood where you guys decide to lynch Swan over Space or Me, or even Faust (despite the later-on falling off of that lynch preference).

[O]

Yea this is all just making me want to lynch space even more now.

it is a fair point that they are probably the watcher, so not a poisoner, and that they could give us something useful tomorrow or be killed and resolved that way if town.

what are your thoughts on swan, O?

mostly similar to Space except that scummy people are much more willing to lynch Swan than space.

That's hardly evidence you were willing to lynch Swan yesterday. Go back and reread yourself and Teproc. Sure, there's the occasional mention that he's on your lists (or in your pools, or whatever) - but there was no actual effort visible from an outside-your-heads perspective that honestly supports your willingness to consider him a lynch candidate.

I can't see how that statement could be interpreted as anything other than "I'll lynch Datswan, but I prefer Space (and perhaps Faust)"

PPE: I don't feel criticized. I'm just not sure everyone else interpreted that line the same way you did.

[Teproc]

Debating whether I should wait for faust to give my thoughts, but I guess I still have some rereading to do as well.

I think we want people to state how available they are going to be in the next two days.

One thing that I haven't seen people talk about is the Candidates QT. It's not the most relevant thing, and obviously not everyone has access to it, but it's probably worth taking a look at for those who can, given how many of the Candidates are still around.

Teproc, Time Machine for me for a moment:

You win the SM investigation N1. Who do you investigate?

You. I distinctly remember thinking about that actually.

[Galzria]

Debating whether I should wait for faust to give my thoughts, but I guess I still have some rereading to do as well.

I think we want people to state how available they are going to be in the next two days.

One thing that I haven't seen people talk about is the Candidates QT. It's not the most relevant thing, and obviously not everyone has access to it, but it's probably worth taking a look at for those who can, given how many of the Candidates are still around.

Teproc, Time Machine for me for a moment:

You win the SM investigation N1. Who do you investigate?

You. I distinctly remember thinking about that actually.

Well, maybe that doesn't help any! I knew that night that I was torn between Iguana (the idea of a SM-Poisoner, especially one with access to the Candidate thread, terrified me) - or E evee, who's intentionally stated lack of participation made me believe quite strongly he was hiding something (hence my scum read on him D1/D2 in particular)

[Teproc]

No way SM-Poisoner claims though right ? Yeah there's a delay and they can wait to know about several candidates but... the possibility never entered my mind really. And I thought e was townie, so that also would not have been much of a thing for me.

Why ?

[Teproc]

Meaning why the question.

[Galzria]

Fausty the Snowman, continued!:


What I -don't- like is that he was more concerned about trying to lynch the scum!poisoner over just simply lynching scum. We win if we lynch scum every day - and it's far easier to lynch {Any!Scum} than it is to lynch {Specific!Scum}.

Ultimately faust goes on to push a case on RR that is based on Tep/O being scum. Upon realizing that they could've hammered him and didn't, he dropped RR and voted DatSwan.

Now, again, let's come to the end of the day and look at a few different scenarios - It's important to note here that neither Faust nor RR were around at the deadline (and I'll come back to this in later posts because it's a big factor in my lynch preferences for today):

Scum team is Space/Faust/Eevee - RoadRunner and Faust are parked on DatSwan. They aren't around at deadline, those votes aren't moving. e also strongly prefers to lynch Datswan over Space, and is voting there for most of the runup to Space's lynch. In this scenario, Datswan must be town - Why didn't Space jump to / go for / attempt to get Datswan lynched? If he moves, and scum partner Eevee moves, town!Datswan is at 5 votes, needing just one more to lynch. As this did not happen, I do not believe this to be the scum team.

Scum team is Space/Faust/RoadRunner: Both of Space's scum partners park their vote on a town!Datswan in this situation here. e is also over on Datswan, so he's sitting at 3 votes. If Space moved over, this would put Datswan at 4 - not close enough to reasonably prevent Space's lynch without them being able to secure two from me/Eevee/Qvist (Space would've assumed there was no chance Tep/O were going to go Swan here - they had never stated any intention to do so at any point). This scum!faust scenario is possible - but I would've expected Space to be trying harder to rally up support for a Datswan lynch - something they never did.

Scum team is Space/Faust/Galzria - I don't have much to say about this as it's obviously not a thing, but if you were to consider the possability, I refer you back to the Space/Faust/Eevee scum team scenario. Why in the world would Space and I not have pushed for Datswan and the win (we would have had 5 votes there with e) over me bussing Space and Space trying to rally support for my lynch instead of theirs?

Space/Faust/Datswan - The most likely of the 4 scum teams that exist for Faust based off the end of day stuff. Even here though, the theory would be that scum!faust parked his vote on scummate!Swan prior to deadline right when the Masons were calling for the lynch of other!scummate!Space. I struggle a little bit to believe that faust wouldn't have parked his vote on town!RR or town!Galz at this point instead of scum!Swan. That aside, it makes sense here that Space wouldn't have wanted to go over to Swan. As with the Space/Faust/RR scum team, Space would've needed two additional townies to come over in order to make this lynch happen - and it wouldn've been all to get his scummate lynched. It's the only Scum!Faust that really explains Space not trying to move the lynch to Datswan though.

Blargh. So long. I'll hold off on posting my overall conclusions on lynch preferences following my rereads until all the rereads are done. I definitely have a #1 through #4 at this point though, so, yay for that.

I don't think anyone is reading this without guessing your order of lychables

Well, fine. But it's not set in stone. And I haven't looked at most big rereads by you or anybody else posted from today. But my preference as of right now is:

Swan > RR > Faust > Eevee

There are a number of things for RR that I wanted to bring up doing the Faust reread but I didn't want to get muddled. Same (but to a lesser degree) for you. The biggest strike against you is the end of day yesterday, which just strongly suggests EITHER RR/Faust as the last two scum, or you are. 

I'm willing to consider lynching RR over you - but I still want to fully do each of your rereads first.

[Galzria]

No way SM-Poisoner claims though right ? Yeah there's a delay and they can wait to know about several candidates but... the possibility never entered my mind really. And I thought e was townie, so that also would not have been much of a thing for me.

Why ?

I just... wouldn't have investigated me I guess. I found the decision weird so was hoping you had a different thought.

[Teproc]

Right. Well, you're an active player and you're hard to read. That's enough to make you a high value investigative target to me.

[Galzria]

No way SM-Poisoner claims though right ? Yeah there's a delay and they can wait to know about several candidates but... the possibility never entered my mind really. And I thought e was townie, so that also would not have been much of a thing for me.

Why ?

He only needs to kill 5 of us though. I didn't think he would claim then shoot N1, but having the ability to fire off the Poisoner shot whenever he needed with a days delay for the kill to hit seemed incredibly powerful to me.

[Swowl]

Debating whether I should wait for faust to give my thoughts, but I guess I still have some rereading to do as well.

I think we want people to state how available they are going to be in the next two days.

One thing that I haven't seen people talk about is the Candidates QT. It's not the most relevant thing, and obviously not everyone has access to it, but it's probably worth taking a look at for those who can, given how many of the Candidates are still around.

Availability - I will around for 24 hours. and then upon the deadline I will be available for like the 6 hours right up to it.

Candidate Thread - I don't think there is a ton of super relevant information there TBH. We were pretty set on playing against the potential "SK may be in here idea". Only things I can think of would be;
1) I voted for myself N1 for already stated reasons (wanted to clear someone so they could act as leader).
2) All remaining candidates pretty actively participated. Exception I guess being Eevee, but I don't think anything they did is really scummy.

I guess the main thing to take away from Candidate Thread would link back to Galz claim early Day 2. At first I wanted to say this had to make him town but the more I thought on it certain elements came into play:
1) SK is a N2 commuter and we have to assume they take that action that night, so no one probably getting SKed N2.
2) Galz (and I to be fair) were pretty certain that LL was Skum of sorts. So I mean, if you are skum, and you think you have two lyches to get it done, and you know the player in question is not Mafia (LL)... IDK I guess I see it being equal between Skum!Galz and VT!Galz here. Not all players... just Galz.

[faust]

I can like literally see no reason why skum would not kill at night.

I can like literally see at least one reason.

Share please?

Town Redirector? Also, Watcher. I mean this is pretty basic stuff.

Why was Redirector specified to be Town and Watcher not? I've already floated the theory that you're claiming in Iguana's spot right now based on him going for redirector and failing - scum you would know that there's a chance that there's a town redirector in the game, but also that the Watcher is scum. It's weird that you differentiated here. It's obvious we're talking about the missing SK kill here, not some generic unknown, so Redirector (Mafia or Town), or Watcher (Mafia or Town) are both reasons for an SK to possibly not shoot (although both are farfetched reasons not to shoot D1). Also, why not mention Tracker? Scum you would know Redirector/Watcher were game reasons for a potential SK not to shoot. But if Eevee is town, then scum you would NOT know that Tracker was a game reason.

That seems like grasping at straws, man. I mean, I didn't repeat "town" because it is clear from context the second time, that is a common stylistic device in many languages including English called ellipsis. I did not mention Tracker because why would I? Scum cannot avoided being caught by a Tracker by choosing a different NK; if they are caught targeting the nightkill, they'll go down no matter who it is. On the other hand they can avoid being caught by the Watcher, obviously.

Have not yet read any further, but I wanted to say this.

Sorry, maybe it wasn't clear - my contention was less on you not saying "Town Watcher", but more on you saying "Town Redirector". You're right that I wouldn't expect you to need to clarify Town/Scum when stating Watcher, but then I wouldn't think you would need to either with Redirector, yet you did.

And on the issue of Tracker, I don't see your point? The discussion was about why an SK might choose to kill at night. Redirector is a reason. Watcher is a reason. Tracker is a reason. All viable reasons for not shooting.

That is so weird. I was sure at the time we were talking about the nightkill choice of mafia... not sure why, as it clearly isn't indicated. But obviously referring to Redirector or Watcher as a reason to not kill at all is nonsense. Sorry for not making sense.

[faust]

Like the following contradictory thought when justifying his drafting choice:

I mean, 15th is a position where you go for barracks or something you think no one wants. Not for redirector/summon mother slot

I didn't think I'd get anything, and having information on whether Mother/Redirect is in the game seemed like a good thing to have, better even than a random weak PR.

What are your thoughts on DatSwan going for Barracks and claiming to fail?
I have my doubts anyone with a single digit position would go for it.

Why is that? I made a power ranking of the slots in the first run and had Barracks at position 6. It's pretty strong.

I don't see anything contradictory about that.

Why would this ever be an assumption? There is nothing (to my knowledge) to support this?

We should also think about the fact that scum likely has a Rolecop, and what that meas with regards to the claims.

Well, the N3 Forensic Scientist died on N3. Might be coincidence, but chairs was not really an expected kill choice either.

In the quote below, there's nothing crazy noteworthy except the call for e to full claim if and who he's blocked - something that, while I believed e to be scum at the time, even I didn't want or push. If e was town (and he was), not knowing was FAR, FAR more valuable to town.

What would have been the value in it?

[faust]

I can like literally see no reason why skum would not kill at night.

I can like literally see at least one reason.

Share please?

Town Redirector? Also, Watcher. I mean this is pretty basic stuff.

Why was Redirector specified to be Town and Watcher not? I've already floated the theory that you're claiming in Iguana's spot right now based on him going for redirector and failing - scum you would know that there's a chance that there's a town redirector in the game, but also that the Watcher is scum. It's weird that you differentiated here. It's obvious we're talking about the missing SK kill here, not some generic unknown, so Redirector (Mafia or Town), or Watcher (Mafia or Town) are both reasons for an SK to possibly not shoot (although both are farfetched reasons not to shoot D1). Also, why not mention Tracker? Scum you would know Redirector/Watcher were game reasons for a potential SK not to shoot. But if Eevee is town, then scum you would NOT know that Tracker was a game reason.

That seems like grasping at straws, man. I mean, I didn't repeat "town" because it is clear from context the second time, that is a common stylistic device in many languages including English called ellipsis. I did not mention Tracker because why would I? Scum cannot avoided being caught by a Tracker by choosing a different NK; if they are caught targeting the nightkill, they'll go down no matter who it is. On the other hand they can avoid being caught by the Watcher, obviously.

Have not yet read any further, but I wanted to say this.

Sorry, maybe it wasn't clear - my contention was less on you not saying "Town Watcher", but more on you saying "Town Redirector". You're right that I wouldn't expect you to need to clarify Town/Scum when stating Watcher, but then I wouldn't think you would need to either with Redirector, yet you did.

And on the issue of Tracker, I don't see your point? The discussion was about why an SK might choose to kill at night. Redirector is a reason. Watcher is a reason. Tracker is a reason. All viable reasons for not shooting.

That is so weird. I was sure at the time we were talking about the nightkill choice of mafia... not sure why, as it clearly isn't indicated. But obviously referring to Redirector or Watcher as a reason to not kill at all is nonsense. Sorry for not making sense.

Actually rereading DatSwan cleared this up. This is DatSwan's whole post:

Wow... that is a lot in a short period of time.

Main thing here so far - If LL is the JK.. I can like literally see no reason why skum would not kill at night. That seems like a very strong role for them to want out of the game. Does anyone have any insight on LL's bid/# claims? I am not trying to promote a claim list here, but I am just on the fence because LL's actions at EOD seemed very Townie, but looking at it retrospectively seems very skummish. My thought is only if we can confirm LL was truthful or lying it might help with decisions?

It's clear that he's talking about why scum did not shoot LaLight, and that is what I responded to. Admittedly my snipping of DatSwan's post was less than ideal.

[faust]

Next reread: DatSwan!

This sounds scummy.

Then not a lot of scumhunting going on. Main targets are gkrieg and RR. Votes Idplay over LaLight late into D1. That isn't very informative. Overall a pretty lurky D1.

Case for lynching LL?

If you 'lie' as town you die

Town LL - claims to help town. Makes a mistake on the number. Does not correct it.
Mafia LL - claims to look towny when they going down. Purposefully messes up the number. Why? He could of just “not corrected it now” or could of claimed real number, or if he has skum brethren who are just Goon, could of swapped claims with them.
SK LL - claims to look towny when going down. If he dies it doesn’t matter if the info was true or not bc he is his own faction. More interestingly if he is SK he has knowledge of un used roles, which assumingly could play a part in his plan.

Now there is all of that... and then yeah it could of just been a whoopsie. However; this one is not sold that “the player that has NEVER” been mislynched blunders that hard....

I could be talked out if it, but for now vote: LL

DatSwan thinking about SK!LaLight. Scummy.

Wow I feel special.

I didn't shoot.

So just to clarify.
@Galz - he has now said he did not shoot. Some one is posioned tomorrow. What is your reaction in hat scenario?

You know, this really sounds scummy. On the other hand, more or less the same thing happened in my first game with Swan (he asked "what happens if X and Y flip scum", and then X and Y did flip scum. I was so convinced that Swan was their partner, but it was wrong.)

No post during D3.

I think we need to be weary of how much power we give the "masons" before they are verified, but I am good with the claim concept at this point

Scummy as well.

Swan's activity picks up during D4. I guess that could just be struggling with D1 as many players do. Still I don't like it. He's there right when scum needs to be a driving force of the discussion. The large majority of those posts are theorycrafting and self-defense. There is very little actual commitment to reads.

OK I have done some reading and it is extremely late so reasoning will have to follow if needed... But I am not seeing the Space case here. I get that yeah it is probably what he would do if X and Y happened and he is Skum!Space but, it just seems too perfect.
I re read as Skum!Space and I re  read as Town!Space... I can see arguments fo finding links to Skum!Space, but they all can be inferred as how a Town Tracker would play. I just don't see them being the lynch. Even if I am wrong and they are skum then we still miss the poisoner I think? There is no way for skum to talk during the day so if they were skum, and pulling a poisoner-watcher switch - why would they pick to claim tracking a high profile target like Galz last night? They could not of known it was true.

Obviously I also am against lynching myself. But I am kind of over defending that at this point. If anyone wants to pursue it I will be happy to elaborate further.

Faust is quite clearly skum.
I get that we are trying to find the poisoner, and that because of this he isn't the one who is poisoned.... but if our lynch pool consists of the 1) the AFK dude that pops in with numbers every once and a while, 2) skum!Faust, and 3) Me...
Then we have a problem because only one of us is for sure flipping skum in that group and I cannot believe he is the poisoner as played.

I think we need to consider the outlier idea, that the poisoner would be deliberately quiet to just stay out of action. I said it day 1 and I will say it again. RR.

This is interesting. I think the defense of Space is actually somewhat townie. Then, we have the "faust is clearly scum" line, which it seems he picked up from Space, so scum points there. The pushback to his early read on RR is townish again.

I have now changed my mind on Galz being town by the way. To be safe I am not going to vote at this time. But I believe I would be on board with a Galz lynch.

That's after Teproc brings up the possibility of a Galzria lynch. Scummy.

The simplest selection for poisoner is me or Galz. Plain and simple. I don’t think we should waste time considering other candidates at this point. Pick one of us. Either we will win or I will flip VT. Then RB Galz if you can, town lives to fight another day. Lynch him then, and the pool consists of Faust and either the Tracker orneatcher. Game set match.

Oh man, that is a post of asherskian quality. Would DatSwan really try to pull this on scumpartner!Galzria? I don't know. On the other hand, if DatSwan is scum, why try to force a 1v1? To portect Space? That doesn't make sense as Space is not the Poisoner.

RR - Someone said earlier in the game "the simplest explanation in Mafia is often the correct one" (or something along those lines). RR is not the simpilest explaination I guess, but IMO, if I were the poisoner, the simplest way to protect myself would to be just staying out of it.

Space and Eevee - I think it is likely that one of these two are dirty. At first I was leaning Space purely based on the ideal that it would be harder for Eevee to create a lie based on the time that they claimed. Currently, I just don't know. The only way it really makes sense in my head is if it is either both Eevee and Space, or if skum has 2 out of the top 4 picks and they took Tracker as 3. For Space - all of the above points (as they are relevant to Space instead of Eevee) plus the fact that I believe if we think one or the other have to skum then watcher seems to have more utility for the skum team. That being said, I just gut feeling do not think it is Eevee and Space has been so helpful and towny with their posts that I could I guess see a both of them being town scenario.

Faust - I said that I think he is skum, I still pretty much think he is skum, but players that have played just so many more games with him than I seem to think that "this isn't how Skum!Faust would play". My opinion is still mine to have and I think that delaying the claim was strange and skummy, but other than that I guess I don't really have much of a skum reason for Faust.

Galz - I could write mountains, but I have already said all I have to say, so I wont waste space re-capping my thoughts. He strikes me as the skummiest player around at this point. The die hard read on LL early game (maybe LL is SK or maybe they are not, but Skum!Galz can push it without relent knowing that worse case they take out a town and there is a reason it was pushed so hard), to the weird whatever type of interaction you want to call it with Iguana on Day 2, to his Day 4 over appeal to probability to make a case against me... Unless like O or Teproc somehow got lynched and flipped over as skum I do not see a Day 5 where my opinion can change on this which is why he is still my #1.

Reads. He suspects every scum candidate still alive today. Eevee is said to be the towniest. We have Galz and RR. From what he writes, it would seem he should go RR over Galzria, but he doesn't. Darn. Maybe they are partners after all.

Then at the end of the day, he pushes hard against a Space lynch. I don't really see why.... he has indicated that he thinks they might be scum. On the other hand, as scum, one of Space/DatSwan will be lynched, and it would likely be to scum!Swan's benefit to have it be Space, so why try to avoid that lynch if it only makes your lynch more likely?

Eevee - if I may - Why did you choose to track RR last night over other potential skum?

Townie question.

Okay, so this hasn't been as conclusive as I hoped. Swan read scummy to me during D4, but upon closer examination I cannot really point my finger on why.

[Swowl]

OK we are getting close here so I want to put this out there. Obviously, the end of yesterday is the majority focus at this point. Bummer for us because it puts me in a situation where I have to defend my actions and I don't really have a defense other than that I just didn't read Space as skummy as everyone else. As for other people's actions, I cannot explain them because they are not my own.
So here is where I am at - We need to lynch Skum. If I get lynched we lose. Whatever everyone says that, I know, it is just where I am at. I am combining a few assumptions here to come up with the last bit at the end...

We can survive to tomorrow one of two ways:
1) We lynch Skum
2) We mis-lynch the Poisoned Town (if there is one)

So, if we assume those things... we are left with this:

1) Skum!Swan:
- Eevee = Maybe. In a II/Space/Swan/Eevee world, he didn't switch to me and neither did Space. That being said, I think that we all (myself included) did not think the Masons were willing to vote me yesterday.
- Galz = No shot. I am just not good enough to sell this team the way it would have to be. That being said, voting yesterday would be the same theory in a II/Space/Swan/Galz world.
- Faust = We have been pretty openly pushing for each other the whole game, and one of us has to be poisoner in this situation. Additionally, he parks himself on me yesterday before he knows what is going on and then just what... leaves hoping for the best. I just don't see that as a viable option.
- RR = Same logic as Swan!Faust.
*All in all, IMO (extremely bias opinion, but can't help that) most likely partners if I am Skum would have to Faust or RR*

2) Skum!Eevee:
- Swan = He could of switched to me and didn't. In this situation I have to be poisoner, so I guess it could make sense.
- Galz = Both on Space yesterday. Could be a double bus, but that is like super weird.
- Faust = Would not explain him not switching to me in a world where Space does actually switch to me, but as that did not happen combined with Skum!Tracker would want to retain cred, I see this as an option.
- RR = So far my favorite theory. Eevee could be lying about RR results absolving him so to speak. RR was on me yesterday after stating clear reasons (so he is covered) and Eevee was on Space.
*Most likely partners RR or Faust (big favorite on RR)*

3) Skum!Galz:
- Swan = Nope.
- Faust = Could be. After the whole Faust stall out and Galz leading the dial off, maybe it is a good skum play. Based on Watcher being Skum, I suppose either could be poisoner. Most likely Galz in this scenario as he would not want to look skummy by switching off of Space.
- Eevee = They are kind of buddy buddy and a lot of their interactions seem fake. On the other hand, they were both on Space. Yeah they would both have to have PRs but still, they could of tried for Town!Swan lynch and they didn't so IDK how viable team is.
- RR = Pretty limited interaction. Although, it would mean that RR neither Poisoned nor killed last night (verified by Town!Tracker). I actually still think this could be an option.
MOD QUESTION - IF A ROLE BLOCK IS SUCCESSFUL IN BLOCKING THEIR TARGET, AND THE TRACKER TRACKS THE BLOCKED PLAYER, WHAT MESSAGE DOES THE TRACKER RECEIVE?
*I do not even know what the most likely team would be here. The downside of playing with a good player, it could literally be anyone. Although I guess, based on the interactions, I would say RR or Eevee (assuming I am correct about the message Tracker gets)*

4) Skum!Faust:
- Swan = In this scenario either of us could be Poisoner, so him parking on me could be a way of keeping a vote off of a Skum PR. That being said, he has kind of been half on me until being full on me the whole game. So that would be a weird long con bus to risk.
- Galz = Possible. Again, they are both excellent players and could have everything planned out. Either could be Poisoner. Galz could of switched to me with SkumBrothers!Faust and Space already there, pretty well hiding himself though, so IDK about that.
- RR = I could see this. BC of Town!Tracker in this scenario, it would mean Faust at least killed last night. He could also be poisoner, and in this situation if Poisoner is going to fire and there is a clear "might be targeted vs. won't be targeted" scenario" - like the one reason to have the person carry both kills.
- Eevee = Seems strange that Tracker would not track Faust, Galz, or myself last night. Faust was I believe also the first person to bring up that we cannot trust Tracker results, which would probably be the play if it was them.
*Again, the bummer of playing with a good player, it could be any of the above. If forced to pick, I think the most likely options are Eevee or RR.

5) Skum!RR:
Swan = He is targeting me and I am targeting him. He was sitting on me yesterday. In a world with Town Tracker, means I have to be Poisoner, which I feel is accepted as unlikely among all remaining, and it would therefore mean Skum/Poisoner!Swan both killed and poisoned last night (don't know why Skum would not diversify at this point, or a minimum not have a prime target carry out the kill).
Eevee = My favorite as previously mentioned. Eevee lies about the results he got, RR is poisoner. Eevee busses Space (N3 convo goes something like "if one of us is going down just bus that person"), they have RR fire both shots under absolution that he probably won't be blocked and they can hide the results.
Galz = Maybe. Again, limited interaction. This makes a Town Tracker so it would have to be Galz carrying the kill last night. Galz busses space and RR is on me, so there is that argument against it bc Galz did not switch though. Also, this would have to make Galz poisoner (assuming they shot last night).
Faust = RR has been on me and Faust all of end game. Would mean Faust would of carried the kill last night, which seems an unlikely choice in this duo.


All in all this puts, IMO (as unbiasly as I can look at it), the mostly likely 4 teams being:
RR!Eevee - Just seems too easy. Last night one busses, the other parks on me. Today RR carries both and is invincible due to Tracker results.
RR!Faust - Faust is Poisoner, if he is going to shoot anyways, why not carry both actions. They were also both voting for me EOD yesterday.
Swan!Faust/RR - Park on Swan to keep vote off Space. Swan does not vote space because he doesn't want credit? I guess.
Galz!Faust/RR - Park on Swan to keep vote off Space. Galz busses Space.

This is just my looking at it. But I wanted to explain my logic for so hard pursuing a RR lynch at this time. He is just the LCD so to speak.
Additionally, if I am wrong and RR is Town, there is the last ditch effort concept for us to take into consideration....
Assuming that Poisoner shot last night and got it off, I think the people the ABSOLUTELY would not target last night were Swan Faust or Galz because we were the 3 most lychable to start D5. Assuming they want a shot at still being able to swing the Fake Mason bit, they probably did not poison Teproc or O because one flipping confirms the other and then they lose that.
This leaves Eevee and RR.
1) I think there is a stronger case for RR than Eevee in general.
2) If RR flips Skum it GREATLY increases the chances of a RR!Eevee scenario.
3) While I do not understand why skum would not kill Town!Eevee last night, knowing that potential RB would wake up dead, logic would follow they also did not poison him.

I think there is a good case for RR, and if you are town I am sorry, but I also think that given the actions so far... there is a good chance you could be poisoned if you are actually Town!RR.
While obviously I am leaning RR for my favorite, when I factor in "if we are wrong who could be poisoned" it kind of just puts it over the edge for me.
Also, if he is town and poisoned, this essentially absolves RR leaving the remaining pool (Masons excluded) as Swan/Galz/Faust. If we lynch Swan/Galz/Faust instead, we are praying that they are Skum because I don't think it possible one of us are poisoned. And then tomorrow arn't we are just back to square 1 where the most likely team is RR!Eevee.

[faust]

Finally, Eevee.

I won't lie (because i'm town), I'm kind of lurking purposefully, meaning I'm reading along but it's just too many people for me to find anything reasonable to say. My plan is to shoot semi-random votes and hope I get lucky and hit scum.

Kind of townie.

Vote: RR

I'll reread him later today, but that didn't look like towny flailing to me.

Was going to say this makes Eevee/RR less likely, however:

Reread RR.

I'm on the fence, still. Those long posts read to me more like scum paranoia than anything else, but the other posts felt townier to me.

Unvote I guess.

Then pursues WW, LaLight, Idplay. Not a good selection.

I would also like to know why I was scummy at end of day. I worked really hard to a) get my preferred lynch through or b) if not, at least get a lynch through. I put myself in a position where I was in the spotlight, it was the end of day, so I'd be held accountable for my actions, and in the end I had to make decisions on a minutes notice. Is that a position scum wants to be in?

I thought that WW had a (relatively) good chance of being scum (wrong), that LL had a (relatively) good chance of being scum AND that his claim was very dubious (I'm coming around to LL probably being town now).

That posts looks pretty scummy, especially the turnaround on LaLight.

Maybe scum thought that LL could be helpful in getting a mislynch today (he was pretty vocal about suspecting me yesterday - maybe scum DID discuss me as a possible mislynch candidate), coupled with the pros of killing WW. I think early in the game, scum often tries to cause confusion with their kills.

If LL is town,  at some point in the game scum will have to bite the bullet and killhim, since they don't even have a permanent roleblock (if LL is town he is the jailkeeper), so I'm definitely not interested in lynching him at this hour. I think that situation will resolve itself, especially because LL is giving us plenty to work with. Not that it wouldn't be helpful to confirm his claim, of course.

Why don't scum have a permanent Roleblocker?

Argh. I missed that there was one, only saw the 1-shot in JOAT and the jailkeeper. Disregard.

Mild town because scum would at least have considered Roleblocker.

Then we have

Case for lynching LL?

Vote: LL

I don't really see the reasoning. Maybe it will come.

Space has been pretty quiet this game, but that can probably be chalked up to their trip. Since, a comfortable place for scum hide, if that's what they drew. No real point to this musing, just occurred to me that Space is usually someone more talked about.

This is just the start of a longer post that goes on to discuss LaLight in detail. It's quite scummy.

There is no mention of Eevee's e result during D2. I don't think Eevee ever even mentions his name. That is strange play for a town PR.

Then, D3, we have this:

It really does seem like Iguana wants to be lynched. Could there be other reasons than the protector of the island? I can't think of any.

Eevee already knows that Qvist is PotI and used the power. Still he is voting for iguana and cutting the day short with no necessity whatsoever. Scum scum scum.

Okay, I'll kick us off.

I have a result on Space. I think they should claim first.

This comes only after massclaim has been established as the way to go. Noteworthy that scum!Eevee would certainly not have tracked Space. But also, he knows he does not have to worry about tracking/watching. Why lie? Maybe he does not want to support a townie's claim, and does not feel sufficiently confident for the 1v1.

I guess a question for an Eevee/Space team is, why did they decide to ICfy Qvist? There was no real necessity to that. On the other hand, I guess they would know that Qvist prevented the NK and that alone would make him look townie. It makes sense from that perspective.

Now, some reads:

Space, I'm leaning town, but not sure. If they are scum, it needs to be a scum watcher, right?


Left with
RR, faust, DatSwan, Galzria

I would say that of the four, Galzria is towniest. I pegged him for a VT already when he offered up his candidacy earlier, although could be a scum long con. Just in general he's been snappier than usual in this game (in my opinion), which is a trait I'd more connect to town.

RR has been super scummy, his "this feels desperate" and nothing else rings really hollow. I hadn't really been considering Swan much until now, which I guess is exactly what scum would want.

Something's up with faust and the claims, interested to see where this goes. If there is a deadlock, having Qvist decide who claims and when seems fair and good. He is the towniest guy around.

Dunno, nothing really stands out except the townread on Space.

faust and roadrunner are my top two scumreads.

Eevee continues to fire a bit against RR, but not in any decisive manner. I think this totally fits as mild scum bussing. It continues here:

RR I was feeling very scummy on, and now that's waning mostly through me becoming more paranoid about other players, RR himself really hasn't done much. Still wondering why he isn't more on the table as a lynch option.

That post also leaves many options open for scum.

I'm terrified of voting because I feel I'm going to get it wrong and feel stupid, but I'll Vote: RR.

Votes RR over any of the currently existing wagons.

Then goes for Galzria when that becomes an option. I think an Eevee/Galzria team is pretty unlikely.

Then the N4 investigation. I mean, clearing scumpartner!RR makes sense as scum would have to expect him coming under serious scrutiny today. It also fits with Eevee stated reads. On the other hand, scum!Eevee could try to frame someone, making it 1v1. I would kind of expect that, as scum!Eevee has a harder time trying to explain his continued survival in the future. So that is somewhat townie.

Overall, Eevee looks quite a bit scummier than I thought. I believe my lynch preferences right now would look something like

RR > Eevee > DatSwan > Galzria.

[faust]

2) We mis-lynch the Poisoned Town (if there is one)

This is not a winning scenario:

D5 end: 7 alive, 2 scum. -> mislynch poisoned player (or mislynch anyone if poison was blocked)
D6 start: 5 alive, 2 scum, 1 poisoned -> lynch any scum (4 alive, 1 scum)
N6: Poisonee dies, scum nightkill: 2 deaths
D7 start: 2 alive, 1 scum -> scum wins.

[faust]

I am not sure if that's good procedure, but DatSwan, I locked the topic you acidentally created.

@mods: Please look into that. If you need forum moderator support, it's probably best to contact gkrieg/ashersky for any further action.

[Galzria]

The points you bring up regarding Eevee's lack of any breadcrumbing D2, as well as his play to stay silent on the PotI thing D3 are well made.

[Galzria]

The points you bring up regarding Eevee's lack of any breadcrumbing D2, as well as his play to stay silent on the PotI thing D3 are well made.

It's worth noting too that while I've argued it's unlikely for Eevee to be scum based on the end of day play yesterday (why wouldn't he and Space team up to avoid a Space lynch?) - it's been based mostly on a town!Swan theory. That is, with town!Swan, scum!Space & scum!Eevee could've joined RR/Faust/e to put Swan at 5 votes, requiring just a single player to switch for the win.

This does NOT hold if the scum team is Space, DatSwan and Eevee though. In this scenario there was no good out. They could've all piled on me, but with Faust/RR out of the action at deadline, and me unwilling to vote for myself, they would've required 3 of 4 out of Teproc/O/Qvist/e to switch to me late. Not likely.