What tournament is this?
The online tournaments and ladder hosted by java settlers.
My mistake for presuming that was the norm everywhere.
I find this very hard to believe. Yes, the average turn would be faster, but you would need far more turns per game, since reaching 10 points would be much harder without being able to trade with other players. Also, even though many turns would only be about 4 seconds; several turns would still easily take at least 30 seconds while players think about their options; or even just go through the physical motions of trading with the bank; playing development cards; dealing with moving the robber, etc.
Make no mistake, 15 min games only happen with players that have been around the block. You need to have memorized the four items on the cheat sheet, know how to get to 10 points efficiently, and know the main strategies for getting to 10.
I played ~100 games with the no trade rule (online, and in person), and I bet zero of them surpassed 20 min.
when my friends played settlers in person with no trading, we did 15 min
including new board setups between games.
I've done a 15 min game from a closed and packed box.
Even when people had bank trading and card playing and construction in the same turn, they are typically done in 15-20 seconds per turn.
Turns where people were merely building road settlement were regularly done in 10 seconds or less.
One thing you are missing in your analysis is that a much higher percentage of turns are that you are unable to build. when trading is allowed, you can have games where something is purchased almost every turn. there are LOTS of 4 second turns when trading isn't allowed.
That sounds like it would be a completely different game... maybe better, but probably worse. Trading is pretty fundamental to Catan.
I am in 100% agreement with you that it is a different game. totally breaks the mold.
but not worse. not better. different.
ports are more important. trading to the bank happens. you can't trade away a victory. you don't have the leader getting blacklisted while the other players try to catch up.
It's more technical, and less touchy-feely. It's more skill, and less politics.
For some people, this is the clearly better game. For some, it ruins the game.