OK well that is a lot of relevant stuff since I last checked in... I am just going to respond to stuff as I go in this post...
He's the 9ne who didn't suggest or object to anyone and who was the strongest against claiming.
The other one was ashersky, who was also against claiming.
- I stand by my point about not claiming. I very much still believe you have made a mistake. Or your skum. But I am somehow still wanting to believe mistake.
- To further that, I laid out my reasoning in pretty damn detailed view in the QT. EFHW could of spoke up there. If they were suspicious of me, I see how they would not want to do that.
ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood, either.
- The PR argument is negated because you claimed.
- I didn't want to be known either, you claimed for both of me and Ash. Why is it less likely he wanted to be known than me?
ashersky not coming forward after I claimed and after the pr argument was negated without protest makes me think he doesn't want it known that he is in the neighborhood, either.
Well, no, I didn’t. I didn’t want it known you were in it either. At this point, town neighbors’ best role is to draw NKs away from remaining town PRs. Now, I can’t, and since I was townreading you, you can’t either. I think your claim was a mistake, but a town-reasoning-driven one.
I also noted Datswan didn’t suggest any targets. I was enjoying watching their posts as if they weren’t neighbor and I wondered where it would go.
- Annoyingly agree with Ashes.
- In regards to me posting like I would in a private QT, please check any Skum, hood, or any form of shared QT I have had in the last year or so... I am very pro information sharing and when I have a shared thread I just pretty much use it instead of my private QT.
- Also, By the time I checked into the thread the people that had been brought up were Mix, Joth, Glooble. I responded to MiX because I knew how I felt at the time, and then by the time I had a chance to go and read Glooble and Joth... one of you brought up Eddie, who I was way more on board with than the other options presented. So, it is correct that I did not bring up anyone as a potential target, but to be fair, by the time I got a chance to respond you two had already elected like 40+% of the alive field that were not the 3 of us.
Short probabilities post. Let's assume no 3d party neighbor. What is the probability p of having two additional town members? It depends on how many PRs scum picked. If it's ...
... 4, then p = 28.6% (6 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 3, then p = 14.3% (3 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 2, then p = 04.8% (1 * 2/7 * 1/6)
... 1, then p = 00.0%
I suck at the maths. What is the probability of skum being there is a Survivor? * kept reading found the post you already have made with this math*
I would suspect that scum probably did choose 4 PRs, because if you're going to make one of your scum buddies a neighbor, then you want a lot of town neighbors. In that world, there are 4 roles chosen and one of them is a neighbor. The probbiality of that is 57.1%. The most likely case. This sounds like a reasonable guess.
- I agree that skum would choose 4 but for different reasons. From a skum pov I feel like the must have role is traitor knows mafia followed by skum PGO. That's 2 there. From there on out, they could come up with a ton of good combos which they would have to weight against the potential downside of the roles Town would get in return. This opens up a ton of options for roles that would not, by themselves, seem viable options. Example would be, Traitor Knows Skum + Skum PGO, then they decide to put Skum in the Hood.... VT cop is fantastic for them there. They are gonna be able to remove 2-3 players from the PR list just because of the Hood, then they get the lynches, kills, and VT checks. With a Hood of 3 players, they would start Day 2 with all town flips (which I assume anyone assumes of any faction to the start of Day 2), with 10 players alive - 3/10 are skum, 3/10 are Hood, 1/10 is either VT or not VT... Assuming they get a VT result, they would literally know exactly who all the Town PRs are start of Day 2. <-- That is kind of a specific example, but the point is that if you look at the roles, I do not think skum would be too worked about taking 4 roles because the potential combos they can put together likely would outweigh what Town gets in return.
I guess, in short, it seems if there is a strong likelihood of a neighbor goon then lynching a neighbor is a decent option and a fantastic limit for reread analysis.
- As I mentioned before, I agree with this concept. My current reads though having me doubting it's likelihood of being the case right now {i.e. it would mean EFHW is skum, which I am not sold on).
- Additionally, we could counter this potential play by using the negative. What are our potential play outs?
1) We lynch a Town!Hood Player - Skum kills outside the Hood N2 obv, most likely killing a Town player. Not to even factor in any potential of there being an extra Traitor or PGO/SK kills that may happen... that still starts us Day 3 with 4 Mafia Aligned, 1 Third Party, and 3 Town Aligned. Because 1/4 Mafia aligned would be Traitor, I am guessing the game would not just end... but that is like a super shitty situation. Then we move onto what... Pray there is Skum in the Hood and try there again, or take essentially the same odds on out of Hood Skum the next day?
2) We lynch a Skum!Hood Player - Obviously a huge upside. If there is skum, and we get them, we instantly get 2 ICs. 1 of the ICs will die at night, followed by the other... but that is a whole Day 3 with 1x IC and 2 Nights of kills from skum that leave Town PRs alive. *while that sounds awesome, it is also my priority case on why I do not think EFHW is Skum - that right there is a hell of a gamble for Skum to take at this point*
3) Alternatively, we could lynch outside of the Hood. Not saying we leave the Hood as ICs, Not saying we don't eventually come to think the Hood is IC's... we could just not look there for right now. There is a 33.33% chance of finding skum in the Hood (if skum is in the Hood). If there is Skum in the Hood, there is a 28.6% chance of finding skum outside of the Hood. However, if the Hood is all Town, there is a 42.8% chance of finding skum outside of the Hood and a 0% chance of finding Skum inside the Hood. Because we do not know which is true, I think we should look outside of the Hood for today's lynch.
Reasonably certain these are correct. Anyone want to verify?
Unfortunately, this makes the case less strong and I'm now no longer certain I want to lynch between ash and DatSwan. Probably still like a PR / non PR claim.
ash and DatSwan said they didn't want to claim because it narrows down who has prs. They have been quite definite about that. You have the opposite plan, which is to completely reveal who has prs. But you don't find them scummy for basing such strong resistance on an argument you feel is unimportant?
- Completely different. Or at least it is for me, I can't speak for Ash. I did not want it to be easier for skum to know who to select for kill targets based on the concept that there potentially is an all Town Hood. If there is an all Town Hood, you have told them who is in it. This limits their kill pool from 7 down to 4. Of those 4, 1 of them are traitor. Of the remaining 3, 1-3 of them are town PRs. You have created a situation where claiming VT vs not VT has a very small liklihood of actually hurting Town. Although, tbh, I don't really see a huge upside of it either.
PPE: A lot