Going through and making my own notes, looking over VC's, and coming to conclusions. This won't be short.
---------------------------------------
Why did MiX ask LaLight about his Scum Meta, and Eevee about his Town Meta? Was he insinuating that he knew LaLight was town, or trying to get Eevee to consider his town meta? - something he would want a scum buddy to be aware of and play to. Or is this just a noise post?
This post at least indicates that MiX was very well aware of, and thinking about, meta's in general. Yes, it's a response to Eevee - but MiX kinda kickstarted the whole conversation.
And then this is interesting to me. If Joth is town, which I know some of you are hesitant to believe, MiX suggests to know this - saying of Eevee "I thought you were joth with this post so town points". This points towards a Town Joth, and is somewhat odd to me that he would be congratulating Eevee on coming across townie.
This is not a very good vote.
Vote: Joseph
This is MiX's first context-less vote. His previous two (Shraeye, Raerae), while poor, still had context. The first was clearly RVS as he suggested Shraeye stop "no voting", and the second was a direct quote of Raerae, who had just voted Shraeye.
A few posts later and again MiX references his vote on Joseph with the same phraseology: "This is not a good vote" // "My current vote isn't good" - that's definitely striking in an off-but-intentional way. This would be my first real feeling towards a scum-partner tell, but this could also be MiX struggling with tipping people he knows to be town as town (see the point on Joth above, if you take it for what it appears to be). His choice of words with "but this time it's not my fault so it should stay" is also really strange to me.
This post could be nothing, or it could suggest that Eevee & LaLight are the same faction.
While this is a less relevant point to most of you, not knowing me to be town, this is another drop in the bucket of my theory that MiX struggles with dropping knowledge of town players.
This could be nothing, or this could be buddy prompting.
Another town player called out as town.
Four different occasions where MiX pushes the "Don't lynch Faust D1" line that Space presented originally. At some point, this gets a little out of hand, yeah?
This is what I would expect as "classic" signalling to a scum partner. "You know I'm a bad lynch" is only missing a "nudge-nudge-wink-wink" at the end.
It's almost like MiX knew both the Joth & Shraeye wagons were against town and he was already looking for a scapegoat...
-----
This post from D2 makes me hesitant to believe that there are 2 of 3 Mafia (discounting Traitor here) on the Shraeye wagon from D1. MiX already knew that he himself was scum, and it was then public knowledge that ADK & WCD were town. While it's true MiX's reads and opinions are like a bag in the wind, I just am not sure he would be directing town to look for scum amongst {MiX, faust, Joseph, Maxford, Eevee, Joth} if he knew that 3 (including himself) were actually scum.
OTOH - When that post was made he was voting for Space, and subsequently moved to LL - so like I said, what MiX says in one breath doesn't always reflect what he's gonna do in the next!
--------------------------------------------------
Game Votes through D2:
Galz - Raptor (1)
MiX -
Shraeye (1)
LaLight - Joseph (1)
Joseph - Space (1)
RaeRae -
Shraeye (2)
MiX - Raerae (1) (
Shraeye (1))
MiX - Joseph (2) (RaeRae (0))
ADK - Joseph (3)
Space -
WCD (1)
ADK -
Shraeye (2) (Joseph (2))
faust -
ADK (1)
Eevee - LL (1)
Joth -
WCD (2)
WCD - Joseph (3)
Joseph -
WCD (3)
RaeRae -
ADK (2) (
Shraeye (1))
Eevee - RaeRae (1) (LL (0))
MiX - Raptor (2) (Joseph (2))
Joth -
ADK (3) (
WCD (2))
MiX - Joth (1) (Raptor (1))
LaLight - Joth (2) (Joseph (1))
Space - Raptor (2) (
WCD (1))
WCD -
MiX (1) (Joseph (0))
MiX - LL (1) (Joth (1))
Raptor - Galz (1)
Galz - Space (1) (Raptor (1))
Eevee - Joth (2) (Raerae (0))
Joth - Space (2) (
ADK (2))
Joseph - Joth (3) (
WCD (0))
MiX - Joth (4) (LL (0))
Joth -
ADK (3) - (Space (1))
Shraeye -
ADK (4)
RaeRae - Eevee (1) (
ADK (3))
Joseph - RaeRae (1) (Joth (3))
LaLight -
ADK (4) (Joth (2))
Shraeye - Joseph (1) (
ADK (3))
Eevee - Joseph (2) (Joth (1))
Shraeye -
ADK (4) (Joseph (1))
Raptor - Joseph (2) (Galz (0))
Galz - Joth (2) (Space (0))
faust - Joth (3) (
ADK (3))
Joth -
MiX (2) (
ADK (2))
MiX - Unvote (Joth (2))
Joth - Unvote (
MiX (1))
Maxford - Space (1)
Joth - faust (1)
MiX - Raptor (2)
Space - Joth (3) (Raptor (1))
faust - Raptor (2) (Joth (2))
LaLight - Joth (3) (
ADK (1))
MiX - Joth (4) (Raptor (1))
MiX - LL (1) (Joth (3))
Joth - Galz (1) (faust (0))
MiX - Galz (2) (LL (0))
WCD - Galz (3) (
MiX (0))
Joseph -
MiX (1) (Raerae (0))
WCD -
MiX (2) (Galz (2))
Joth - Eevee (2) (Galz (1))
Shraeye - Joth (4) (
ADK (0))
faust -
Shraeye (2) (Raptor (0))
MiX - LL (1) (Galz (0))
Joth - Joseph (3) (Eevee (1))
MiX -
Shraeye (3) (LL (0))
MiX - Joth (5) (
Shraeye (2))
Shraeye - faust (1) (Joth (4))
Joseph -
Shraeye (3) (
MiX (1))
Maxford - Unvote (Space (0))
Raptor - Unvote (Joseph (2))
MiX -
Shraeye (4) (Joth (3))
WCD -
Shraeye (5) (
MiX (0))
Joth -
Shraeye (6) (Joseph (1))
Maxford -
Shraeye (7)
MiX - Joth (4) (
Shraeye (6))
MiX -
ADK (1) (Joth (3))
MiX - Joth (4) (
ADK (0))
Raerae - Joth (5) (Eevee (0))
Eevee - Joth (6) (Joseph (0))
MiX -
Shraeye (7) (Joth (5))
MiX - Joth (6) (
Shraeye (6))
MiX -
Shraeye (7) (Joth (5))
Raptor - Joth (6)
Eevee -
Shraeye (
8
) (Joth (5))
-------------------------------
MiX - faust (1)
ADK - Joseph (1)
Eevee - faust (2)
MiX - Space (1) (faust (1))
Maxford - faust (2)
Space -
MiX (1)
Joseph -
MiX (2)
Joseph - Joth (1) (
MiX (1))
LaLight - Joth (2)
faust - Eevee (1)
Joth - Eevee (2)
MiX - LaLight (1) (Space (0))
Raerae -
MiX (2)
Joth -
MiX (3) (Eevee (1))
MiX - Eevee (2) (LaLight (0))
Joth - Eevee (3) (
MiX (2))
Joth - Joseph (2) (Eevee (2))
Joth - Eevee (3) (Joseph (1))
Joseph - Galz (1) (Joth (1))
faust - LaLight (1) (Eevee (2))
Raptor -
MiX (3)
MiX - Raptor (1) (Eevee (1))
Eevee -
MiX (4) (faust (1))
faust -
MiX (5) (LaLight (0))
Joseph -
MiX (6) (Galz (0))
MiX -
MiX (7) (Raptor (0))
--------------------
For actual VCA's - Well, like I said, I believe that Joth is town. I'm also as certain as I could possibly be that Raptor is town. So I'm quite simply going to work from that. Feel free to disagree with either opinion - but this is what I believe to be true.
VC 1.1 - Either Maxford is scum, or all 4 scum are currently voting. It's also worth noting that at least 4 of the 6 wagons are on town players. In any case, at this early point the most scum clumping that there can be is two scum on one wagon.
EoD1 - So the pools I'm down to on each wagon are from Shraeye {faust, Joseph, Maxford, Eevee}, and from Joth {Space, LaLight, Raerae}. I do not believe Shraeye was anything close to scummy enough D1 to warrant an entire town wagon (plus MiX) to secure his lynch. That is to say, I do not believe the entire Mafia team was on Joth. Whether it's 2 Mafia on Shraeye or 2 Mafia on Joth though, I'm honestly not sure. My gut says that there were 2 on Shraeye and 1 on Joth - but then the pool on Shraeye is bigger, so that's not really saying much.
Based on my reread of MiX though, I think I'm most comfortable voting for faust here.
The biggest two things for me are:
- MiX's considerable effort to present this idea that faust is untouchable. He didn't go out of his way to make big arguments about it, but he kept hammering away at it, almost trying to ingrain it in the subconscious of everyone else.
- I think MiX was attempting to signal faust in #452:
Also, don*t leave the wagon, I need a backup plan for if the shraeye thing fails.
Ew. You know I'm a bad lynch, this is silly.
I haven't reread enough to unvote joth, but I don't really want to be there either...
More than that, like I said D2, I don't really believe that the first 5 people on the EoD lynch of Shraeye are town - it isn't a common occurrence in general, and I don't think Shraeye was scummy enough to justify 5 town piling on like that to drive the lynch without scum help. I scum read faust off the MiX reread more than I do Joseph, so that's kinda where I'm at with that.
However, my other take-aways are that I do feel like MiX was coaching and prodding Maxford at various points in D1. I think Maxford being new to forum Mafia show through in some of his hesitancy in general - but I feel like it's been a step beyond just that. I'm not convinced that all four scum were in fact voting in VC 1.1.
Beyond my reads on faust and Maxford... I'm leaning town on Eevee. I'm very null/scummy on Space & LaLight. Raerae is an absolute, complete, 100% enigma and Joseph... is either town, or MiX did a good job with him.
So yeah. Lynching Joth is bad. Lynch faust instead.
vote: faust