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[Hydrad]

unvote

[Galzria]

At the time faust will be back, I will be completely off grid.

[faust]

Time to settle the score. Bolded are my replies.

First things first: This should come as a shock to nobody, but Hydrad is NOT Gkrieg's natural partner. There is almost no scenario where he pushes Gkrieg D2 (and ends on Gkrieg's wagon), and then fails to be part of his lynch on back to back days.
Not that I picture Hydrad as the partner, but I fail to see why this would be what makes it unlikely.

That leaves faust and LaLight (surprise!). D1 & D2 faust ends the day on both town wagons, and LaLight is on faust - that isn't really all that important, except that it looks slightly better for LaLight (very slight). Many of us were on both D1 & D2 town lynches though, so I'm not going to pretend to paint faust scummy because of that alone.
Still you are going to pretend to paint me scummy because of it.

 What IS notable is that the D2 lynch contains all town + faust. If you believe faust to be town, you must believe that was a 100% town wagon. Impossible? No. Super likely though? Also no.
This is super wrong and misleading. First - we know one scum was off. Second - Robz and you are colored green in your overview. Both of you are not confirmed town. If we do assume that you are town and we dismiss Robz because he's at most a Traitor (which is still faulty logic), then still all we're left with is you saying gkrieg's partner is very likely to be on the wagon. Why? Scum didn't need to be on the wagon, and scum stays away from that when they can.

Working under the assumption that Faust is scum here (and thus LaLight is likely town), it's easy to see in faust's voting pattern that he spread his vote around as much as possible - creating as many different wagons as possible. 4 different people on D1, and 2 others exclusively on D2. That's 6 players, all of whom are likely town here.
You are only saying that if LaLight is town and I am scum, then I am scum. I think it is very likely - no, guaranteed - that there was at least 1 scum amongst the people I voted for D1. Add on top that I always switch around votes. That's not scummy.

Faust always had outs, always had wagons and other people to push. He made certain never to have the need to push Gkrieg.
gkrieg was mostly absent and I didn't scumread him.

So, why the change in approach from scum!faust D3? End game potential and town cred.
All this is plain BS. I have made my first claim - not being responsible for the missing NK - well before we agreed to massclaim. I then pushed for a massclaim which might not have happened otherwise that pinned down gkrieg. There is literally no reason for scum town do that. It doesn't help in any endgame because I would have IC'd you, which would clearly be terrible. It helps for towncred? Well yes, otherwise I could not argue that I am town for this. BUt is a bit of towncred worth outing a partner and creating an IC? No, no, no.

This was the day of the mass-claim. Scum had just discovered where my sword was, and he knew they could steal it. He also knew that Gkrieg was lynch-proof. Pushing Gkrieg here would buy him town cred if they couldn't end game (at worst), and would hopefully allow scum to get a free NK on Night 3, along with an attempt to steal the sword.
So the "best case" scenario here is outing a partner for another nightkill, when otherwise scum might have a mislynch AND another kill? And the worst case is even more terrible? Why would I go for that plan?

My guess here is that Gkrieg wasn't 1-shot death proof, but was BOTH 1-shot lynch proof AND 1-shot Bullet Proof. I'm also guessing that Gkrieg was the one capable of stealing the sword, which would explain why faust didn't yet know if I had the sword on D4 or if Gkrieg had been successful in stealing it.
Not sure how much use this theorycrafting is anyway, but that role sounds a bit OP, and there was nothing in it suggesting he could steal. There was something in it suggesting Godfather powers.

If I had the sword (and not Gkrieg), then the push to lynch LaLight D4 would've allowed scum to lynch town, and then for my shot to fail on a bullet proof Gkrieg - we would be here today with 6 alive (4 to lynch), with 2 known living scum, and the possibility for Robz to be scum (making it 3v3) still to endgame town - not to mention we don't know if there's been a conversion the other way.
There's also an obsession with the sword and I'm not sure why. The way I see it, only you and mcmc ever would have had the option to use it.

But what about the rest of the game? Does it support a faust/Gkrieg team? Well, I think D2 is the key to explaining that yeah, it really does. D2 was the day when we had the greatest chance of lynching Gkrieg early. I was insistent on the lynch being Gkrieg or Faust, and we ran the Gkrieg wagon up to 4 votes (with, by the way, LaLight being vote #4 - not impossible for a scum teammate trying to actively defend by wagoning to cause cold feet - but definitely not what I would expect from LALIGHT in particular as scum, and definitely not as scummy as faust during this time):
Have you even looked at LaLight's vote? It super reads like jumping a partner for cred.
[...]
Deflection, deflection and more deflection. And this is after he had called (weakly) Gkrieg scummy at the start of the day (while simultaneously calling me scummy in the same post - the point on me being the only one he followed up with throughout the day).
This is just a long-winded thing of saying I am scummy for having defended gkrieg that one day. That is too easy. If you look at your own play as scum, you will see that you much more often bus your partners than you defend them. Now do I sometimes defend my partners as scum? Sure. But if I spend such effort building a town narrative for gkrieg D2, then why would I out him the following day?

D1:
faust (#28), Robz (#50), faust (#155),  Hydrad (#227), EFHW (#308)

---

D2:
IDPTG (#567), Haddock (#570), Robz (#659)

---

And... that's it. He never cast a vote on D3 or D4. So, with the exception of the Hydrad vote D1, Gkrieg voted entirely for town... and faust. Is it possible faust is town and Gkrieg never voted for his partner LaLight ever? Sure.
I am scummy for defending gkrieg. I am scummy for (presumably) only voting for town. Then you make the argument that scum wouldn't only vote for town, and I am also scummy for that. You're just cherry-picking the arguments that fit the narrative.

1) Gkrieg never voted for partner LaLight, despite having no reason not to (separation cred is a thing)
Again, I never voted for gkrieg, and you think I am scummy for that. How does that make sense?
2) LaLight pushed Gkrieg to L-2 D2 when he could've done... nothing - meanwhile, faust would've been town unfortunately deflecting from scum
Yes. That's perfectly reasonable.
3) At the point of Gkrieg's highest wagon D2, his partner would've been actively choosing to bus instead of voting somewhere (anywhere) else
Are you just trying to make more points? That says the same as 2.
4) The lynch of PPS at the end of D2 would've been 100% town
5) LaLight would need to be a scum motion detector, otherwise he got lucky guessing that there was motion around Robz N1 (I had yet to claim to have targeted Robz N1 when LaLight claimed)
LaLight can safely claim that there was a motion and if noone confirms just go "well, must've been scum then".

Generally, you can make a list of things that need to be true for literally any player to be town that will be unlikely. The sum of all events that happened this game is unlikely to have happened. If we started a new game, you would say those are unlikely to happen. But the thing is, we do know that some things happened. Conditional probability is completely ignored in the list above. It also completely fails to mention the reasons why I am unlikely to be scum.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: Faust

[EFHW]

unvote: faust
unvote: faust
unvote: faust
vote: Robz

[faust]

vote: Faust

You have been lulled in by Galzria. I guess it was to be expected.

[faust]

Unfortunately... I really don't think Galzria is scum. Scum stealing the sword would not make any sense then.

So I think I'm pretty much dead already, but scum won't have an extra kill, so it won't lose the game.

[faust]

EFHW being scum would be petty hilarious.

Like, 75% unlikely - but hilarious.

More like 99% unlikely.

[faust]

vote: faust, there was a motion there. Can we lynch him now?

Well I received Space's item and got my 1-shot power made permanent... so certainly there would be a motion. I targeted mcmc, which turned out to be the wrong choice.

Anyway I don't really see how it couldn't be LaLight, so vote: LaLight

Why did you target Mcmc last night knowing that I had neighborized him and was going to commute us?

I always figured that your commute was 1-shot and you didn't want to tell scum, because everything else would be OP. You're telling me you can always commute?

Why do you think that it would be OP to be either a neighborizer OR a neighborhood commuter? Obviously if I'm commuted I can't also neighborize as I am incapable of targeting anyone else - likewise I prevent any possible actions from my neighbor who, in all fairness, I most likely don't know the alignment of. Further, as it's an item that allows the commuting, and we've confirmed item stealing is in the game, I'm not even guaranteed to have the power forever.

It was by the way in no way clear from your claim that your role worked this way.

[faust]

I guess Galz is gone and wrong.

LaLight is still scum. I can think this over and over, but Galzria is not scum, and only one of Robz/Hydrad is scum.

So the player I have to convince in order to prevent desaster is mcmc. But what can I say, I have laid it out already. I have singlehandedly outed gkrieg. It makes no sense, absolutely none, for scum!me to do that. This is the important information. Everything else is just noise.

[faust]

I also acknowledge EFHW wants me to vote Robz, but I am at L-1 and Robz isn't voting for me. The moment I do vote for him, I'm dead.

[LaLight]

Hi guys, sorry I was absent, I was at a wedding. I also think we're in a clearly good position.

[mcmcsalot]

unvote

[mcmcsalot]

Ugh I’m terrible for having taken this long to decide to be giving this the attention that it needs.

I think Faust is scum. I think robz is very likely scum.

There is no way that Faust is scum with a non robz partner.
There is a possibility that robz is scum with a non Faust partner.

We are at 6 players and possibly 2 scum. Again the only way there is two scum is if robz is scum with someone else.

Meaning the most intelligent play is that we lynch robz. If he’s town we open tomorrow with 3 town and 1 scum.

I think that’s the correct play unless I missed where galz laid out that there could be a Faust plus non robz scum team left.

[LaLight]

Ugh I’m terrible for having taken this long to decide to be giving this the attention that it needs.

I think Faust is scum. I think robz is very likely scum.

There is no way that Faust is scum with a non robz partner.
There is a possibility that robz is scum with a non Faust partner.

We are at 6 players and possibly 2 scum. Again the only way there is two scum is if robz is scum with someone else.

Meaning the most intelligent play is that we lynch robz. If he’s town we open tomorrow with 3 town and 1 scum.

I think that’s the correct play unless I missed where galz laid out that there could be a Faust plus non robz scum team left.

Thing is Hydrad may be scum. Say, from my perspective, it's faust + Robz/Hydrad. So lynching faust looks like the best course of action here

[mcmcsalot]

But do you think it’s really possible the Faust/gkrieg/hydrad are scum with robz being a traitor in a 12 person game? Robz says he was scum who turned to town. Meaning he would count toward scum team totals even before he was in their qt which he claimed he could do by self recruiting.

It would mean a mislynch day 1, plus nk leaves us at 4 scum, 6 town, mislynch day 2 plus nightkill is a loss. 2 nislynches and loss is ridiculous.

I guess efhw’s restless spirit comes into play because on day 3:

Robz/Gkrieg, (Faust/Hydrad/Lalight), space/mcmc/galz were all alive. Meaning if two of the group is scum we were at 4s, 4T and efhw’s vote is all that kept us from being endgamed. I doubt this is possible.

[mcmcsalot]

Never mind I am wrong. If we mislynch Faust today we do not lose. Say Faust is town and for ease of explanation robz and lalight are scum.

Mislynch Faust plus hydrad nightkill would leave us with robz/lalight vs me and galz with 4 Alive it takes 3
To lynch me/galz plus efhw lynch scum for the win.

It is only because we have a restless spirit to break scum ties that we are in a really secure spot here. I am fine with vote: faust

[faust]

well goodbye.

[faust]

whatever I say is not going to get acknowledged by anyone, so please go ahead and lynch me already.

[LaLight]

But do you think it’s really possible the Faust/gkrieg/hydrad are scum with robz being a traitor in a 12 person game? Robz says he was scum who turned to town. Meaning he would count toward scum team totals even before he was in their qt which he claimed he could do by self recruiting.

It would mean a mislynch day 1, plus nk leaves us at 4 scum, 6 town, mislynch day 2 plus nightkill is a loss. 2 nislynches and loss is ridiculous.

I guess efhw’s restless spirit comes into play because on day 3:

Robz/Gkrieg, (Faust/Hydrad/Lalight), space/mcmc/galz were all alive. Meaning if two of the group is scum we were at 4s, 4T and efhw’s vote is all that kept us from being endgamed. I doubt this is possible.

You don’t account for the probability for Hydrad to change alignment if and only if Robz turns to town? That’d be balanced.

[LaLight]

But do you think it’s really possible the Faust/gkrieg/hydrad are scum with robz being a traitor in a 12 person game? Robz says he was scum who turned to town. Meaning he would count toward scum team totals even before he was in their qt which he claimed he could do by self recruiting.

It would mean a mislynch day 1, plus nk leaves us at 4 scum, 6 town, mislynch day 2 plus nightkill is a loss. 2 nislynches and loss is ridiculous.

I guess efhw’s restless spirit comes into play because on day 3:

Robz/Gkrieg, (Faust/Hydrad/Lalight), space/mcmc/galz were all alive. Meaning if two of the group is scum we were at 4s, 4T and efhw’s vote is all that kept us from being endgamed. I doubt this is possible.

I mean if we lynch Robz and he turns out to be town, I’d say that makes Hydrad most certainly scum

[Robz888]

Vote: Faust

Too much talk of lynching Robz.

[LaLight]

Vote: Faust

Too much talk of lynching Robz.

well, you're up next and supposedly we win on this (:

[faust]

#LynchLaLight

[iguanaiguana]

Day 5 Final vote count

faust (4): Lalight, Galzria, McMcsalot, Robz888
Lalight (1): faust
Robz888 (1): EFHW

not voting (1): Hydrad

With 6 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

faust was a Woolie, a good-aligned beast and a 1-shot bodyguard.

Night five begins now and endsg at August 01, 2018, 06:30:00 am Night actions are due 8 hours before deadline.

Thread locked!