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[Seprix]

My vote remains with Faust. I think Joseph is innocent. I find nothing scummy with his argument. I say give him one night.

[ashersky]

Joseph, all of your defenses continue to rely on you being a 1-Shot Cop, which we don't know to be true.

You need to come up with some defenses that are not related to the importance of a 1-Shot Cop existing.

[faust]

My vote remains with Faust. I think Joseph is innocent. I find nothing scummy with his argument. I say give him one night.

Can you sum up why I'm so scummy, and refute my points on Joseph?

[chairs]

What's the pro-silverspawn argument?  I'm beginning to see an argument for town!faust even though I think he's dead wrong on the appropriate route to take with regards to Joseph, but I'm not interested in lynching Joseph (Today), so I'm seeing a couple people say silverspawn - and since I'm starting to rethink my first lynch choice...

unvote

Do you think Joseph is town?

Yes, but your tunneling on him has me feeling that you are as well.

[chairs]

Joseph, all of your defenses continue to rely on you being a 1-Shot Cop, which we don't know to be true.

You need to come up with some defenses that are not related to the importance of a 1-Shot Cop existing.

This is true.  Don't say "You don't want to lynch the 1-shot cop, which is me, because that would be bad".  Instead explain why the arguments for you being scum are wrong (I think somebody else already suggested this).

[faust]

What's the pro-silverspawn argument?  I'm beginning to see an argument for town!faust even though I think he's dead wrong on the appropriate route to take with regards to Joseph, but I'm not interested in lynching Joseph (Today), so I'm seeing a couple people say silverspawn - and since I'm starting to rethink my first lynch choice...

unvote

Do you think Joseph is town?

Yes, but your tunneling on him has me feeling that you are as well.

Really? I thought that by now "faust tunnels D1" is an established meta to the point where I would be seen as scummy for following it.

[Awaclus]

I got ignored.

So you're saying that it would be beneficial for scum to attempt to lynch a random townie instead of town!Joseph here? That sounds counter-intuitive to me, but maybe it's right.

If lynching town!Joseph is not what scum wants, we should definitely lynch Joseph. I'd appreciate the input of someone whose intuition is more reliable than mine here.

[Teproc]

Vote Count 1.5

silverspawn (2) : ashersky, A Drowned Kernel
Joseph2302 (2) : faust, Hydrad
faust (1) : Seprix
chairs (1) : sudgy
A Drowned Kernel (1) : Witherweaver
seprix (1) : EgorK

Not Voting (4): silverspawn, Joseph2302, Awaclus, chairs

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 will last 10 days.

The deadline for Day 1 will be Saturday, December 27 at 6:30 pm forum time.

[Seprix]

You can't make an argument for anybody though. There's no reason not to lynch me, you, and your mom. Everyone knows whether they are scum or not, and that's all you know. We can call Joseph on his BS next day if he's BSing. So, to put it simply, Joseph is the only possible lead we have right now. Faust wants Joseph dead, and since I think that keeping Joseph alive for a day is very important to this investigation, I think that Faust is scum for wanting to hinder what we have going here. That's my reasoning.

[faust]

I got ignored.

So you're saying that it would be beneficial for scum to attempt to lynch a random townie instead of town!Joseph here? That sounds counter-intuitive to me, but maybe it's right.

If lynching town!Joseph is not what scum wants, we should definitely lynch Joseph. I'd appreciate the input of someone whose intuition is more reliable than mine here.

Sorry, I didn't realize that was a question. Well, assuming Joseph is town, scum obviously likes that lynch better than a random one because they don't want to be lynched themselves by accident. But yeah, the thing scum fears most is investigations, and now they have one threat they can eliminate. I would argue that, if scum got to choose (without us knowing) between "lynch Joseph" and "lynch a random other townie", they would go for the other townie.

[ashersky]

faust's explanation is predicated on unknown info, of course.

If the mafia team has a roleblocker or strongman, they might feel better about leaving the claimed cop alive.  If they don't, I think they'd prefer to lynch him.

[ashersky]

Also, we are not lynching faust today.

[Joseph2302]

I wrote up this nice post with quotes, and then deleted it. I'm too lazy to do it again, so you'll have to live with the short version.

Your votes are sheepish, you're opportunistic and always jumping whatever wagon you find. Your votes are weakly justified. Your claim was convenient, and you didn't for a minute refuse to claim, even though you've professed to find me, who was urging you to vote, scummy.

I feel like I've justified my votes okay, I made it clear that I was voting for you coz of the weird thing with sudgy & chairs, and chairs because he felt the most scummy at the time. I haven't been jumping on loads of wagons, as the only votes I've made are:
ashersky: in the flavour thing, was right at the time, as he was directly challenging me (turned out that all that bit made no sense anyway)
chairs: seemed scummy at the time, but I gradually got less and less confident, until I unvoted.
faust: never actually voted for, but continually said was scummy (except for in 1 post). Why were you so super-supportive of chairs early on, with not much information to use?
I didn't mind claiming because it seemed safe, and I was the person most in trouble anyway. I thought that claiming my role would not disadvantage town too much, and that this would allow the town to not lose their cop. But now it seems I might be lynched anyway, with no guarantee of a UB existing or not being NKed.

Joseph, all of your defenses continue to rely on you being a 1-Shot Cop, which we don't know to be true.

You need to come up with some defenses that are not related to the importance of a 1-Shot Cop existing.

This is true.  Don't say "You don't want to lynch the 1-shot cop, which is me, because that would be bad".  Instead explain why the arguments for you being scum are wrong (I think somebody else already suggested this).

Where are the arguments for me being scum? Everyone has just said "I think Joseph is scum", but I honestly can't see where in my posting has been scummy. (I did already say this in:

faust said "it's not the worst course of action"- why not? give reasons. Then, in

, you say that I'm scummy because I did weird things, but chairs isn't scummy despite doing weird things- that doesn't make sense. And now you're tunnelling me, which I do think is scummy from you (although others disagree).
seems faust & silverspawn are basing my scumminess on feelings, having played with me once before- that isn't statistically strong evidence.
Unless clear evidence of my scumminess is stated, I can't defend myself. I've posted why I think faust's suggestions are wrong, but no-one else has given proper information on why I'm scum.

[chairs]

Also, we are not lynching faust today.

+1 would no longer lynch faust today.

I see the argument that says "mafia might just block Joseph and lead us to lynch him D2 instead", so that's a good point from this quote:

faust's explanation is predicated on unknown info, of course.

If the mafia team has a roleblocker or strongman, they might feel better about leaving the claimed cop alive.  If they don't, I think they'd prefer to lynch him.

[Seprix]

Also, we are not lynching faust today.

+1 would no longer lynch faust today.

I see the argument that says "mafia might just block Joseph and lead us to lynch him D2 instead", so that's a good point from this quote:

faust's explanation is predicated on unknown info, of course.

If the mafia team has a roleblocker or strongman, they might feel better about leaving the claimed cop alive.  If they don't, I think they'd prefer to lynch him.

Okay. What are the odds of roleblockers? Will the police power pass down to someone else? If the odds for roleblockers are high, and police power CAN be transferred, then hell. Then we should lynch Joseph. But I don't know the answers to these questions, and until then, I won't be swayed from Faust.

[ashersky]

Okay. What are the odds of roleblockers? Will the police power pass down to someone else? If the odds for roleblockers are high, and police power CAN be transferred, then hell. Then we should lynch Joseph. But I don't know the answers to these questions, and until then, I won't be swayed from Faust.

Mathematical odds aren't that important.  Just look at the setup.  Two or more non-T rolls guarantees scum has a roleblocker and at least 1 shot of strongman.

If you believe Joseph, then the odds are just whether or not you think there's another town power role.

And remember, scum has a subset of known setup knowledge (# of Ts +/- 1), so they can mess with all of that.

[Seprix]

Okay. What are the odds of roleblockers? Will the police power pass down to someone else? If the odds for roleblockers are high, and police power CAN be transferred, then hell. Then we should lynch Joseph. But I don't know the answers to these questions, and until then, I won't be swayed from Faust.

Mathematical odds aren't that important.  Just look at the setup.  Two or more non-T rolls guarantees scum has a roleblocker and at least 1 shot of strongman.

If you believe Joseph, then the odds are just whether or not you think there's another town power role.

And remember, scum has a subset of known setup knowledge (# of Ts +/- 1), so they can mess with all of that.

Joseph will either live and RB'd, or will die. If he is truly scum, he will claim to be RB'd, meaning he'll be lynched either way. If he dies, then he can't give us his information unless there is a Doctor, which is moot anyways if there is a RB. I guess we have to lynch.

[Joseph2302]

Mathematical odds aren't that important.  Just look at the setup.  Two or more non-T rolls guarantees scum has a roleblocker and at least 1 shot of strongman.

If you believe Joseph, then the odds are just whether or not you think there's another town power role.

These odds are 50/50 on having another power role or not.

Also, if you try to pass the cop power to the UB, I believe there's only just over 50% chance it will work i.e. the UB can use the shot.
Assuming the UB isn't lynched, then there's a 1/8 chance the UB is NKed.
Also, the UB could already be a mason, with 35.4% chance I think (6 * 0.1 * (0.9)^5 ), although if you believe I'm 1-shot cop, then this decreases to 32.8% (5 * 0.1 * (0.9)^4)).

Whereas if you believe I'm the 1-shot cop, then there's a 50% chance I can use the shot anyway.

Also, I'm going to bed, will probably be back in 8-10 hours, hope to still be alive by then.

[faust]

Mathematical odds aren't that important.  Just look at the setup.  Two or more non-T rolls guarantees scum has a roleblocker and at least 1 shot of strongman.

If you believe Joseph, then the odds are just whether or not you think there's another town power role.

These odds are 50/50 on having another power role or not.

Also, if you try to pass the cop power to the UB, I believe there's only just over 50% chance it will work i.e. the UB can use the shot.
Assuming the UB isn't lynched, then there's a 1/8 chance the UB is NKed.
Also, the UB could already be a mason, with 35.4% chance I think (6 * 0.1 * (0.9)^5 ), although if you believe I'm 1-shot cop, then this decreases to 32.8% (5 * 0.1 * (0.9)^4)).

Whereas if you believe I'm the 1-shot cop, then there's a 50% chance I can use the shot anyway.

Also, I'm going to bed, will probably be back in 8-10 hours, hope to still be alive by then.

Your math is off.

[faust]

Assuming Joseph tells the truth, the odds of there being another PR are 1 - 0.5^5 = 96,7 %

These are also the odds of scum having a Roleblocker/Strongman in this scenario.

[faust]

Joseph's post reads really manipulative - do the math where it's in your favor, stay vague otherwise.

[Witherweaver]

"Don't lynch me because I'm town" is always my defense as town, so of course there's nothing wrong with it.

Let's not lynch Joseph today and lynch someone more better.

[Seprix]

"Don't lynch me because I'm town" is always my defense as town, so of course there's nothing wrong with it.

Let's not lynch Joseph today and lynch someone more better.

There are many more betterer candidates to choose from.

[Witherweaver]

"Don't lynch me because I'm town" is always my defense as town, so of course there's nothing wrong with it.

Let's not lynch Joseph today and lynch someone more better.

There are many more betterer candidates to choose from.

Enumerate such a list.

[Witherweaver]

Joseph's post reads really manipulative - do the math where it's in your favor, stay vague otherwise.

You really think scum is going to think "No one's going to double check this, better fudge this math"?