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[Galzria]

Can somebody repost the full bid order list?

lol lazy. This is my list.

Excel doesn't import well. It reads (by column):
DraftPOS - Player - RMM Bid - Station Bid

1 Swan   44       
2 PPS   xx     3   (SWORD STICK)
3 Iguana   28     
4 Ash   xx     
5 Space   18     
6 E!           16     3
7 Dylan   14
8 Jake   45
9 Schadd   43
10 Galz   40     1 (DAGGER)
11 Silver   31
12 Chairs   19
13 Awac    13     3   (PENALTY)---unverified
14 WW   13
15 EFHW   10
16 Hadd    32
17 GK   11

Is that right?

So... you're town*, PPS was SK/Survivor, Ash is shaping up to be likely town**, Space is town, and e is confirmed*** town?

So.... Either Iguana is mafia or there's no mafia**** in the top 6.

* - Your perspective, not known to others
** - He could be Mafia double frozen by the traitor, but we'll know soon enough
*** - Mod confirmed that if anything changed his alignment, he would remain green text in game.
**** - See 3 points above

[iguanaiguana]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I believe so. I know someone in the top 7 got the item from slot 7.

[Swowl]

Can somebody repost the full bid order list?

lol lazy. This is my list.

Excel doesn't import well. It reads (by column):
DraftPOS - Player - RMM Bid - Station Bid

1 Swan   44       
2 PPS   xx     3   (SWORD STICK)
3 Iguana   28     
4 Ash   xx     
5 Space   18     
6 E!           16     3
7 Dylan   14
8 Jake   45
9 Schadd   43
10 Galz   40     1 (DAGGER)
11 Silver   31
12 Chairs   19
13 Awac    13     3   (PENALTY)---unverified
14 WW   13
15 EFHW   10
16 Hadd    32
17 GK   11

Is that right?

So... you're town*, PPS was SK/Survivor, Ash is shaping up to be likely town**, Space is town, and e is confirmed*** town?

So.... Either Iguana is mafia or there's no mafia**** in the top 6.

* - Your perspective, not known to others
** - He could be Mafia double frozen by the traitor, but we'll know soon enough
*** - Mod confirmed that if anything changed his alignment, he would remain green text in game.
**** - See 3 points above

I mean the II point is the one i have been making.

[Galzria]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

[EFHW]

I get the points on Jake by WW and iguana. But why is he lurking so heavily and why no claim? It's been awhile, but I've never seen him lurk before. The point about scum liking the status quo is a good one, though.

We definitely do need to hear more from gkrieg, and the POE and level of scumminess are pretty similar to Jake's. vote: gkrieg.

[EFHW]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

We don't know why there haven't been nks, but this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited. So not as weak as most traitors.

You also leave out the possibility of another lone wolf.

[iguanaiguana]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

Nah dude, we know there's another third party unless Haddock is mafia and making up results. My guess would be two mafia, two traitors, two third party.

Where on earth do you get 1 traitor = half a mafia?

[Swowl]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

Nah dude, we know there's another third party unless Haddock is mafia and making up results. My guess would be two mafia, two traitors, two third party.

Where on earth do you get 1 traitor = half a mafia?

Makes sense. Game of 17 would normally have what like 4 mafia and a SK right? So 3 mafia and 2 SK balanaces. At least that is how i read it

[Galzria]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

We don't know why there haven't been nks, but this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited. So not as weak as most traitors.

You also leave out the possibility of another lone wolf.

Where in the world do you get "this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited"?

[Galzria]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

Nah dude, we know there's another third party unless Haddock is mafia and making up results. My guess would be two mafia, two traitors, two third party.

Where on earth do you get 1 traitor = half a mafia?

PPS was two colors. That leaves Mafia and Town.

[iguanaiguana]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

We don't know why there haven't been nks, but this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited. So not as weak as most traitors.

You also leave out the possibility of another lone wolf.

Where in the world do you get "this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited"?

Some kinda frost lady from Flash mafia who freezes people is the only one ever who freezes anyone

[EFHW]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

We don't know why there haven't been nks, but this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited. So not as weak as most traitors.

You also leave out the possibility of another lone wolf.

Where in the world do you get "this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited"?

Some kinda frost lady from Flash mafia who freezes people is the only one ever who freezes anyone

Freezing is a killing power.

[EFHW]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

[Galzria]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

We don't know why there haven't been nks, but this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited. So not as weak as most traitors.

You also leave out the possibility of another lone wolf.

Where in the world do you get "this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited"?

Some kinda frost lady from Flash mafia who freezes people is the only one ever who freezes anyone

Freezing is a killing power.

I guess, delayed out long enough, yes. It's just not direct. And as they could still be freezing mafia, it's not all that "pro-scum".

[Swowl]

Right but if mafia has two traitors, which is now very likely, they had limited opportunity to collaborate and wouldn't have been much likelier to bid well than town.

Sure. Except 2 Mafia and 2 Traitors is weak with a half-SK.
1 Traitor is the equivalent of 1/2 a Mafia usually - that is, in a setup where 3 Mafia might be too strong, 2.5 is within reason.

In a 17 person game with a Half-SK, "3" Mafia is too weak. I expect that the Mafia team consists of 3, with 2 Traitors.

That's 5 "Mafia Aligned", 1 Half-SK, 11 Town.

The only alternative is two Mafia factions, each with their own traitor - which would make 6 Mafia aligned players (2/1 for each faction), 1 Half SO, 10 Town - but we've seen nothing to support this theory.

Thus {3/2}/1/11 is probably accurate - and knowledge in 3 spots should be more than enough to secure a top 6 spot in 17 players. Randomness alone would be close enough to make the argument.

We don't know why there haven't been nks, but this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited. So not as weak as most traitors.

You also leave out the possibility of another lone wolf.

Where in the world do you get "this traitor has a killing power in addition to the mafia kill, until they get recruited"?

Some kinda frost lady from Flash mafia who freezes people is the only one ever who freezes anyone

Freezing is a killing power.

I cannot believe freezing is classified as a “killing power”. Is that accurate?

[EFHW]

If you read the Caitlin role, you'll see the bit about being recruited means either freeze or nk, can't have both.

True, it's less pro-scum; it is more swingy. Maybe we are all town talking to each other and scum have given up because they had some bad luck.

[Galzria]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

[Swowl]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

So I mean point taken, but isn't that only sixteen players?

[Swowl]

@Galzria, A second lone wolf could share one of pps's colors, survivor or SK. I doubt SK bc of so few kills, but I don't think 3 mafia is as certain as you do.

If it's a second survivor I don't really care - and again with this many players having a Mafia "team" (QT access) of only two players, who have yet to show a kill, seems highly unlikely. The only "kills" that have been made are Lynches of PPS, a Mod kill, the "lynch" of Space, and probably* Ash, which would come from a traitor anyway and may very well be on scum.

A second SK, as you note, is even more unlikely.

2/2/1/1/10 is highly unbalanced against Mafia. There are, almost certainly, 3 "regular" mafia.

So I mean point taken, but isn't that only sixteen players?

So assuming 3/2/1/1/10... Is that likely? I mean I am actually asking, this is only the second 17 person game I have every played

[EFHW]

I wasn't trying to be technical, I just mean if people get frozen chances are good they'll die. There was only 1 item in the setup that could unfreeze people, and most of the items didn't make it into the game.

But the point in any case was just that I disagree with Galzria in how sure he is about a 3 person main scum team. It's not a big deal.

[EFHW]

I'm also not sure 3 mafia works with Haddock's results. I'll look at the chart I made on my computer tomorrow. Looking up deadline now.

[EFHW]

Monday 12:30 pm

[Swowl]

@ Awaclus, E!, Dylan, WW - Are you lot against a Jake lynch at this point or just thinking or whats going on? Not trying to rush you or whatever, just wondering.

[EFHW]

We should get a flip for ashersky at end of day.