D4 started with 8 players: chairs, jotheonah, MiX, A Drowned Kernel, gkrieg13, Galzria, SpaceAnemone, EFHW
MiX was promoted.
Galz was the outed prob!town promoter.
EFHW and I were ICs by being un-counterclaimed PRs.
Joth was prob!towb because he'd successfully picked a scum to challenge in D2.
MiX's story at that point was that ADK was prob!lynchee, and that the scumteam had to be gkrieg/chairs
So could MiX have challenge gkrieg? ADK's argument was that no, he couldn't safely have done it.
Scenario A: MiX challenges gkrieg, MiX loses, and is killed off as scum. Only the lurker Chairs remains in the scum-team, and he's the apparent next lynch, so that's kind of game over.
Scenario B: MiX challenges gkrieg and wins, but gkrieg flips town. Lynchpool for the next day is ADK, Chairs, MiX and possibly Galz. (Where did Joth go from ADK's reckoning here?)
Scenario B1: MiX is summarily lynched for picking a townie to challenge. This seems unfair, because town!MiX would have had no information to go on, and there was no reason to expect an exact 1-v-1 between MiX and whomever he'd selected on D4.
Scenario B2: Consensus moves to challenge Chairs, going back to the argument at the start of D4 that gkrieg and Chairs were the two most likely scums.
Scenario B3: Town is led along to another mislynch instead. This would have to be ADK, Joth or Galz by this point, I think.
So if ADK is scum, then they're trying to point out that scum!MiX had no good way out in the scenarios above, and had to avoid this decision tree because all the options A, B1, B2 and B3 are bad for scum, or too unlikely. Of course, B3 is the ideal scenario for scum. Would scum!MiX definitely have decided it was too risky, and taken the towncred for picking Chairs instead? It's true that MiX's professed townreads weren't very compatible with steering the game towards lynching e..g ADK or Joth at that point, but did it look as hopeless as the picutre ADK painted? I feel like maybe it did, or could have done.
I really should just vote MiX, go to sleep, and wake up when it's all over :-P