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Author Topic: CARD OF THE WEEK #6: Smugglers  (Read 9853 times)

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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: CARD OF THE WEEK #6: Smugglers
« Reply #25 on: May 02, 2015, 10:52:54 pm »
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Deadlock and I will be playing a Smugglers Cage Match tomorrow at 22:00 UTC

http://www.twitch.tv/mic_qsenoch

Has your opinion of the card changed at all following the match?

Not really, I've played a lot more Smugglers games than I just played today. We had some turns demonstrating how it can be a real powerhouse, and some turns where it can be totally dead depending on what your opponent does. I think we rolled above average boards for it in the match, but maybe not very much above average.

It's a difficult card to play well, I made a lot of mistakes in the games today. Critical to track opponents gain abilities with this card around. Have to think about which cards you want to allow them to Smuggle and also the fact that they may be able to play those Smuggled cards the same turn they get them.

Here's the match for those who are interested:

http://www.twitch.tv/mic_qsenoch/c/6634889
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Chris is me

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Re: CARD OF THE WEEK #6: Smugglers
« Reply #26 on: May 03, 2015, 02:31:25 pm »
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Smugglers is really way better than it looks, particularly in kingdoms with a fairly obvious path to an engine that you both want the same cards for. Most times when I ignore it, my opponent beats me with it.

The old isotropic stats give smugglers a "win rate with" of 91% and a "win rate without" of 111%. That puts it in the same bracket as herbalist, cache, talisman, saboteur, treasure map, and other cards that you need a good reason to buy. I'm afraid it could be possible that you're a bad judge of smuggler kingdoms.

That's pretty likely (that I'm a bad judge); I've also had several games with Smugglers recently in kingdoms nearly purpose built for it. One of those cards that I kept ignoring, and kept losing because of that decision.

But what I was trying to say earlier is that a player who is more likely to lose is more likely to benefit from Smugglers. If I'm playing someone obviously better than me, and the kingdom otherwise favors Smugglers (lots of good cantrips, key Action cards, etc), I'm more likely to buy it than normal precisely because I can assume my opponent will play nearly optimally and the chance of getting an edge by being a few gains ahead improves my odds of winning, even if by a little bit. A good player playing a bad player has far less incentive to buy Smugglers. In the long run, better players will win more than worse players, so maybe that is a part of why the stats are so skewed on it.
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Re: CARD OF THE WEEK #6: Smugglers
« Reply #27 on: May 03, 2015, 03:45:45 pm »
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Reading this thread makes me realise I was wrong about Smugglers. I thought if it as an early game accelerator where you can quickly gain extra cards that gets your deck together in the second, third and fourth shuffles. After that I thought it became less useful. I would very frequently open with it.

The odd thing though is that I do have a good win rate with it. The player analysis tool on this site shows it as one of my better cards, not one my very best but comfortably inside the top quartile. My Goko rating is normally around the mid to high 3000s This suggests that Smugglers is a card that is not well understood by players of this level.

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