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[Robz888]

let=late

[gkrieg13]

Vote Count 3.2

Galzria (1): mcmcsalot
Robz888 (1): IDontPlayThisGame
IDontPlayThisGame (3): gkrieg13, Robz888, Galzria
ashersky (2): Eevee, theorel
gkrieg13(1): ashersky

Not Voting (2): Teproc, O
With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 will end January 15th at 2:30 PM.

Of the ten people alive, I don't want to lynch:

Robz - I think he has been helpful, similar to how he was in that game he was a survivor.  Maybe not THAT helpful, but he definitely has not just hung back and let all the work be done for him, like I would expect him to do as scum.  I also think that his reaction to Mcmc wanting to waste his deathproof at the beginning of the game was a townie one.

Mcmcsalot - I think regardless of IDPTG's alignment, I think the result on mcmcsalot is true.  The only case where it isn't is where mcmcsalot and IDPTG are both scum, but then I don't htink he would attack IDPTG like he did at the beginning of today.

Theorel - His posts have been insightful and he has been active.  I have agreed with about half of his analysis, but it has good reasoning behind it, which is usually a townie thing.

I'm not really interested in lynching:

O - This one I'm a little less on.  I don't think he has done anything super scummy, except for targeting Teproc N1.  His reactions to cases on him have been townie.

Teproc - He has had good cases on people and looks like he is trying.  He also doesn't seem as calculated as I've seen scum!Teproc in the past.

Galzria - I'm on the fence about.  His paranoia is something that I didn't see in his scum games, but he is the kind of player that could change his scum style if he were scum multiple games in a row.  I think I would rather wait to see the flip of my want to lynches before I decide anything about Galzria, because IDPTG flipping scum would change my read on him.

Want to lynch:

IDPTG - I think he has been scummy for a while now.  His reaction to cases and his night actions are very scummy.  He seems to have a good grasp on the setup, yet didn't make "good" choices with that knowledge.  His lynch has also been incredibly difficult.

Eevee - I agree with Theorel that Eevee is the most dangerous scum.  But more than that, Eevee has been very under the radar, and still is hard for me to remember he is in the game.  If I believe that basically all of the active people are town, then it makes sense for scum to hang back and attack each other, especially with the amount of weird night action resolutions that have taken place that gets town at each other's throats.

ash - My townread on ash has waned significantly.  He is the weakest of my want to lynches, but his unhelpfulness and lack of interest at this point in the game reads to me that he is active, and that he wants to be lynched at this point.  Ash is at a point that if he is scum and active, his lynch only is helpful to town in that it would be a scum flip.  I guess it would still be fine as long as IDPTG doesn't kill himself, because it would just put us at LYLO instead of MYLO.

[ashersky]

That reads list by gkrieg is scummy.

————

I appreciate theo’s analysis.  He didn’t include some details which don’t seem super important (like if I’m scum, there’s a guarantee that Town dies on hammer, but if I’m town then we do have a chance to kill scum) but actually matter when trying to determine what info Theo has.

I think the fact that Theo takes as a given that my Lynch results in an extra Town death means one of: 1) we are both scum and he knows none of our team will hammer; 2) he is scum and the team discussed making sure they don’t hammer; 3) he somehow forgot to take it into consideration.

You all can make your own decisions, but I think #3 is least likely, and I actually know I’m Town.

If Theo is mastermind scum here, he’s setting up multiple mislynches plus directing a possible weak visitor to get a free additional NK.

Something to consider.

[Robz888]

That reads list by gkrieg is scummy.

————

I appreciate theo’s analysis.  He didn’t include some details which don’t seem super important (like if I’m scum, there’s a guarantee that Town dies on hammer, but if I’m town then we do have a chance to kill scum) but actually matter when trying to determine what info Theo has.

I think the fact that Theo takes as a given that my Lynch results in an extra Town death means one of: 1) we are both scum and he knows none of our team will hammer; 2) he is scum and the team discussed making sure they don’t hammer; 3) he somehow forgot to take it into consideration.

You all can make your own decisions, but I think #3 is least likely, and I actually know I’m Town.

If Theo is mastermind scum here, he’s setting up multiple mislynches plus directing a possible weak visitor to get a free additional NK.

Something to consider.

So you are basically saying that theorel is scum?

[theorel]

That reads list by gkrieg is scummy.

————

I appreciate theo’s analysis.  He didn’t include some details which don’t seem super important (like if I’m scum, there’s a guarantee that Town dies on hammer, but if I’m town then we do have a chance to kill scum) but actually matter when trying to determine what info Theo has.

I think the fact that Theo takes as a given that my Lynch results in an extra Town death means one of: 1) we are both scum and he knows none of our team will hammer; 2) he is scum and the team discussed making sure they don’t hammer; 3) he somehow forgot to take it into consideration.

You all can make your own decisions, but I think #3 is least likely, and I actually know I’m Town.

If Theo is mastermind scum here, he’s setting up multiple mislynches plus directing a possible weak visitor to get a free additional NK.

Something to consider.

I think (though I could be wrong), that by the time I included town-possibilities for anybody, I had already established that we should only lynch scum-ash last.  So, I wasn't super-concerned with what happened with town-ash, since we shouldn't lynch you this early, even if you're scum.  If you want some future game advice...um lynch ash if you think he's scum, and there's only 1 scum left.  If you're at 4v1, then there's room to make a mistake.  If you're at 2v1, make the scummier player hammer him.

[O]

That reads list by gkrieg is scummy.

————

I appreciate theo’s analysis.  He didn’t include some details which don’t seem super important (like if I’m scum, there’s a guarantee that Town dies on hammer, but if I’m town then we do have a chance to kill scum) but actually matter when trying to determine what info Theo has.

I think the fact that Theo takes as a given that my Lynch results in an extra Town death means one of: 1) we are both scum and he knows none of our team will hammer; 2) he is scum and the team discussed making sure they don’t hammer; 3) he somehow forgot to take it into consideration.

You all can make your own decisions, but I think #3 is least likely, and I actually know I’m Town.

If Theo is mastermind scum here, he’s setting up multiple mislynches plus directing a possible weak visitor to get a free additional NK.

Something to consider.

I think (though I could be wrong), that by the time I included town-possibilities for anybody, I had already established that we should only lynch scum-ash last.  So, I wasn't super-concerned with what happened with town-ash, since we shouldn't lynch you this early, even if you're scum.  If you want some future game advice...um lynch ash if you think he's scum, and there's only 1 scum left.  If you're at 4v1, then there's room to make a mistake.  If you're at 2v1, make the scummier player hammer him.

Or we could agree to lynch ash, then vote on a hammerer and lynch the hammerer if they refuse.

[mcmcsalot]

I don't think ash is scum, I don't think he is active either, I think Robz may be both and is absolutely willing to lynch ash to burn his 1-shot dp and either also kill town!idptg or be false cleared by scum!idptg or just argue his towniness.

[Teproc]

That reads list by gkrieg is scummy.

————

I appreciate theo’s analysis.  He didn’t include some details which don’t seem super important (like if I’m scum, there’s a guarantee that Town dies on hammer, but if I’m town then we do have a chance to kill scum) but actually matter when trying to determine what info Theo has.

I think the fact that Theo takes as a given that my Lynch results in an extra Town death means one of: 1) we are both scum and he knows none of our team will hammer; 2) he is scum and the team discussed making sure they don’t hammer; 3) he somehow forgot to take it into consideration.

You all can make your own decisions, but I think #3 is least likely, and I actually know I’m Town.

If Theo is mastermind scum here, he’s setting up multiple mislynches plus directing a possible weak visitor to get a free additional NK.

Something to consider.

I think (though I could be wrong), that by the time I included town-possibilities for anybody, I had already established that we should only lynch scum-ash last.  So, I wasn't super-concerned with what happened with town-ash, since we shouldn't lynch you this early, even if you're scum.  If you want some future game advice...um lynch ash if you think he's scum, and there's only 1 scum left.  If you're at 4v1, then there's room to make a mistake.  If you're at 2v1, make the scummier player hammer him.

Or we could agree to lynch ash, then vote on a hammerer and lynch the hammerer if they refuse.

In theory, yes. In practice I think it'd be somewhat complicated, but if we get to L-1 on ash we should do that yes.

Obviously, I think Robz should be the hammerer in that case (not for role interactions reason, just for likelihood to hit scum).

[O]

That reads list by gkrieg is scummy.

————

I appreciate theo’s analysis.  He didn’t include some details which don’t seem super important (like if I’m scum, there’s a guarantee that Town dies on hammer, but if I’m town then we do have a chance to kill scum) but actually matter when trying to determine what info Theo has.

I think the fact that Theo takes as a given that my Lynch results in an extra Town death means one of: 1) we are both scum and he knows none of our team will hammer; 2) he is scum and the team discussed making sure they don’t hammer; 3) he somehow forgot to take it into consideration.

You all can make your own decisions, but I think #3 is least likely, and I actually know I’m Town.

If Theo is mastermind scum here, he’s setting up multiple mislynches plus directing a possible weak visitor to get a free additional NK.

Something to consider.

I think (though I could be wrong), that by the time I included town-possibilities for anybody, I had already established that we should only lynch scum-ash last.  So, I wasn't super-concerned with what happened with town-ash, since we shouldn't lynch you this early, even if you're scum.  If you want some future game advice...um lynch ash if you think he's scum, and there's only 1 scum left.  If you're at 4v1, then there's room to make a mistake.  If you're at 2v1, make the scummier player hammer him.

Or we could agree to lynch ash, then vote on a hammerer and lynch the hammerer if they refuse.

In theory, yes. In practice I think it'd be somewhat complicated, but if we get to L-1 on ash we should do that yes.

Obviously, I think Robz should be the hammerer in that case (not for role interactions reason, just for likelihood to hit scum).

I think that's likely the best plan.

[Eevee]

Robz is seeming scummier to me as well. theorel getting town points for good analysis seems unwarranted - that's more of a theorel - tell than anything alignment indicative. I'm not saying I have any reason to think he's scum, although if all these wack pr interactions are town, a lot of us not included in them must be scum. (I'm totally giving gkrieg a town read for good analysis as well even though he might be able to fake it as scum. Still feeling towny on him, call me a hypocrite.)


Could lynch Robz, ash, IDPTG, or maybe Galzria.

[Robz888]

All of a sudden I’m feeling scummier to you, Eevee? Is it because I changed my mind about you?

[Teproc]

theorel doesn't get town points for analysis, he gets town points for that analysis seeming to come from a town perspective. Strongest town read in the game to me, in large part because his approach to the IDPTG thing was messy in the way town generally is.

[Eevee]

All of a sudden I’m feeling scummier to you, Eevee? Is it because I changed my mind about you?

Your early play seemed towny, I haven't had those feelings since then. Also, mcmc (most likely) turning up town makes you seem a little scummier in my eyes, since part of my read was thinking you looked townier in that argument. Much of it's also PoE, since the various pr's seem on the townier side.

I don't really have great reads right now. I'm realizing how difficult it is to build scum reads I actually have confidence in before the first scum flip, even if it's late in the game like now. Ugh.

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.3

Robz888 (3): IDontPlayThisGame, Teproc, mcmcsalot
IDontPlayThisGame (2): gkrieg13, Galzria
ashersky (2): Eevee, O
gkrieg13(1): ashersky
Eevee(2): theorel, Robz888

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 will end January 15th at 2:30 PM (~2 days).

[ashersky]

Based on wagon comp: Robz > idptg > Eevee.

[Teproc]

Upm, looks like this game is dying ? I"m felling less sure about Robz anyway, would expect more of a fight from scum! him. Let's vote: ash. Still think I like Robz hammering though... gkrieg and Eevee also acceptable.

[O]

Can you guys post your votes for hammerer if you vote for Rob, like Teproc did

really need this to be a town consensus concept to get an extra pseudo lynch

[gkrieg13]

vote: ash

Robz for hammer

[theorel]

I'm okay with lynching ash only if Robz or Eevee hammer.  I'd really rather just lynch Eevee, personally.

[Galzria]

I hate how easily consensus have been made yesterday and today on non-involved players. I'll do whatever to get a lynch, obviously, but this feels stupid.

If we're lynching Ash, Robz should hammer. But this feels like such a cop out.

[Teproc]

I know... who would you rather lynch again ?

[Archetype]

Vote Count 3.4

Robz888 (2): IDontPlayThisGame, mcmcsalot
IDontPlayThisGame (1): Galzria
ashersky (4): Eevee, O, Teproc, gkrieg13
gkrieg13(1): ashersky
Eevee(2): theorel, Robz888

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Day 3 will end January 15th at 2:30 PM (~36 hours).

[Galzria]

I know... who would you rather lynch again ?

I don't know. Gut? O still. Based on results from last night? Is it coincidence that I targeted EFHW and scum did too, or did I kill her? IDPTG. He's seemed to have such a handle on the setup, admits that messing it up isn't meta, and honestly... I think my gut read is wrong. I think IDPTG is scum who targeted me for the kill as a tracking alibi.

But really... yeah. I don't have a better answer. I dislike strongly how many people town read him, or Theorel, or Robz, or... etc. It's the ones that are so damn hard to get a push on that concern me most.

Imagine: You're 3 scum in 10 players. Takes 6 to lynch.  If you all defend each other, it takes 6/7 town to get your lynch through - and that's with them agreeing despite your defenses. It's such a damn shitty situation.

I would like, I think, to lynch IDPTG. Or Theorel. Or Eevee. Or Robz. Any of the ones that people (collectively, town) need to step back from and say "why hasn't this been visible"?

I highly, HIGHLY dislike Robz' "let me hammer Ash, and IDPTG can visit me to clear me at night". If they're scum together, it's not unreasonable for him to be active - and he's pushing an unlikely active town!Ash here to promote a fake clear tomorrow - and I haven't even fully looked over Theorel's analysis, but are we even still playing if Robz is scum, active, and we lynch town today?

Sorry, extremely DAMA (Holiday staff party, so this is mostly stream of conscience as I lie in bed), so if that's not all logically followed, I apologize.

End of the day, I just hate how easy this feels. And I honestly do not feel that we're walking a winning path by lynching Ash here.

[ashersky]

vote: Teproc since no one trusts my gut and that “let’s take the easy mislynch now since it’s slow and that’s a good cover” post only comes from scum.

Also, please note the cheap gkrieg vote that followed.

I’m liking both for scum, given reads and possible coordination.  Plus two of Eevee, O, Robz, Galz I think.

[Teproc]

Well, everyone you mention is kind of in that consensus as well. They all have votes right now.

PPE: This was in response to Galz.