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[Robz888]

Anyone willing to believe me on the Robz train yet. Day 2 he again was the penultimate vote for yet another vanilla townie. Pointed his fingers in just enough places to get people to look somewhere that wasn't him. I'm still 100% sure that Robz is Mafia.

Vote: Robz888

This is nonsense, and totally expected. Of course I expected Insomniac to keep up his campaign against me from last round. I expect him to keep saying stupid things about me--that I point fingers too much (moreso than Galzria? moreso than J? moreso than K who we wrongly lynched yesterday? clearly this is no indication of guilt, and at least half the players have done it more than me.)

One of the reasons that Insomniac remains my principal suspect--and though I did vote for K yesterday, I indicated it was a toss up for me which one was more mafia than the other (I suspected they were mafia as a pair, and yes, was wrong about that clearly)--is that he keeps bringing up arguments against me that don't make sense, namely this argument that I am going around accusing everyone. It's nuts; I don't do that more than other people. I can't for the life of me figure out why he wouldn't be accusing J or Galz of the same thing (well, the likely reason is one of them is mafia with him, if he is mafia).

I am not a member of the mafia, so Insomniac is wrong about me. I don't really begrudge him that; I've been wrong about lots of people, and it's pretty hard to tell who is mafia. But I do begrudge him coming up with reasons that don't make any sense, and then parading this around as a certainty that I'm mafia. And VOTING FOR ME? That's insane. Imagine the quite possible scenario that neither of is mafia. The 2 mafia could drop the hammer on me right now and boom, they win the game.

Insomniac's moves are incriminating and logically-faulty, and reckless. But see we absolutely must make the right kill here, I will not cast a vote for him---that would be insane. The fact that he cast a vote for me actually makes me a little less suspicious of him, because it's so suicidally stupid.

Alright, here's the thing. I'm of two minds here:

I've never really bought Insomniac's argument about Robz. However I won't deny that there MIGHT be something there, even if I don't agree with him. He IS right on at least the count that Robz has essentially cast the killing vote both times. (Although to be fair, there was no way for Robz to know that his vote on Morgrim would be the deciding one). On the other hand, Robz HAS essentially laid out why he was casting his vote each time, AND WHEN. The fact that others voted in BEFORE him can hardly be his fault. Still, he may be Mafia. 75% chance.

I agree with some of this. And I agree that I was the principal motivator behind the Morgrim vote (though NOT the kill voter! Morgrim himself did that!). But the K kill was proposed by Galz and carried out by J, so that one really isn't on me.

So I *implore* you all NOT to vote behind Insomniac yet. Maybe that's where we want to go and roll the dice. But given we NOW KNOW that Robz is Mafia or Insomniac is, I think we should take a LONG hard look at how each of them has acted throughout the first 2 days before we make our decision. Win/Lose hangs on that vote.

This is absolutely wrong, and dangerous thinking. We do NOT know that either I or Insomniac are the mafia. It's true that I most strongly suspect Insomniac, and Insomniac is 'certain' about me. But we could both be wrong. And, look, this gets to my second point... the most likely mafia pairing at this point seems to me to be Galz and J. They have worked in tandem, sometimes subtly, sometimes overtly. But often in tandem.

It's true that individually I suspect Insomniac more than either of them--and I suppose his mafia teammate could be anybody other than me, but probably J, I guess? And I know it's not going to win me many friends to start suggesting people other than Insomniac. Like, Galz and J, I hope you don't say "ah, Robz suspects us, we will join Insomniac now!" Because I'm not sure at all about anybody, I'm just trying to figure out who the 2 mafia are. It's baffling that we still have 2.

The thing I am most sure about is that Voltgloss is town. I've just gotten such a strong town vibe from him. I know the rest of you find him suspicious, right? Well, I don't.

So, here's how I feel at this point: (No percentages! If I was 75% sure of ANYTHING, I would vote immediately. That's a crazy high certainty level that Galz has, but it's at least consistent with other ridiculous numbers he has tossed out throughout the game)

Individually:
Insomniac
Jtheonah
Galzria
Voltgloss

Pairs:
G and J
I and J
I and G
Much Less Likely:
I and V
V and G
V and J

I must say one more thing about Insomniac. I still find it difficult to believe that both mafia voted for Morgrim in the first round, because it was unnecessary to do so. Insomniac is the last surviving non-Morgrim voter.

[Robz888]

Okay, I just did some more thinking about whether this is the right time for this. I think it is. Soon it will be too late. ... Insomniac, you should really take that vote off me. Really, really. And, I can back that up.

I AM THE DOCTOR

There was every reason to stay silent up to now. I can't save myself, so a reveal means I die (I've known that since Tables turned up as a dead cop, eliminating the possibility of Jailkeeper.) But now there are 5 people left: I, G, J, V, R. We lose if we do not lynch a mafia this round, because there will be 2 town and 2 mafia and we lose by definition. So we'll never even get to the point tonight where my power helps unless we do this right. (If we do kill the correct person today, this means I die tonight--which is bad, but it's better than losing right now, which I suspect is likely to happen unless I come out, and could in fact still happen because we don't know for sure who is mafia, just that it isn't me.)

For clarification, I saved Kuildeous during the first night. I saved Voltgloss last night.

So, Insomniac, please remove that vote. Seriously, if G and J are the mafia, we could lose instantly. You are really, really, really suspicious to me, but let's not let this feud accidentally end the game.

[Galzria]

Wow, there are some real whoppers in Robz's post. Alright, let me start from the top:

Anyone willing to believe me on the Robz train yet. Day 2 he again was the penultimate vote for yet another vanilla townie. Pointed his fingers in just enough places to get people to look somewhere that wasn't him. I'm still 100% sure that Robz is Mafia.

Vote: Robz888

This is nonsense, and totally expected. Of course I expected Insomniac to keep up his campaign against me from last round. I expect him to keep saying stupid things about me--that I point fingers too much (moreso than Galzria? moreso than J? moreso than K who we wrongly lynched yesterday? clearly this is no indication of guilt, and at least half the players have done it more than me.)

One of the reasons that Insomniac remains my principal suspect--and though I did vote for K yesterday, I indicated it was a toss up for me which one was more mafia than the other (I suspected they were mafia as a pair, and yes, was wrong about that clearly)--is that he keeps bringing up arguments against me that don't make sense, namely this argument that I am going around accusing everyone. It's nuts; I don't do that more than other people. I can't for the life of me figure out why he wouldn't be accusing J or Galz of the same thing (well, the likely reason is one of them is mafia with him, if he is mafia).

This is absolutely how I see things. Look, I'm as guilty as the next person when it comes to a LOT of things this game. I haven't pointed my finger around wildly quite the way that Robz suggests (he has more or less ignored anything I've said regarding the first round, and why my votes went the way they did), but I HAVE voted for 2 innocent people. And I've done it as vocally or more so than anybody else. How in the WORLD can Insomniac make a consistent case, beating the same drum over and over, about Robz... that's 1000% times more applicable to me?

Insomniac's case against Robz just doesn't seem to me to be driven by anything substantial. HOWEVER, I CANNOT in good conscience rule out the idea that he might be right. Certainly I have NOT been so far, so... What can I say? I don't like his case. I think it's faulty and almost all of us who are left fit the bill.

I am not a member of the mafia, so Insomniac is wrong about me.

Absolutely not convinced, sorry.

And VOTING FOR ME? That's insane. Imagine the quite possible scenario that neither of is mafia. The 2 mafia could drop the hammer on me right now and boom, they win the game.

First part is absolutely spot on. It's STUPID to vote for anybody at this point. Second part, WAY off the mark. Insomniac, despite his current vote status, is not stupid himself. Coming out of the gates firing can ONLY mean 1 of 2 things: He's Mafia trying to get just ONE person to bandwagon, and his partner slams the door. OR, You're Mafia, and he knows his vote can't be hammered into a town loss.

One thing I learned from the Kuildeous lynch: The only person who knows their role, is the player themselves. I DO NOT believe any townie would put our game at risk with a vote straight out of the gates. So right now, I'm leaning towards Insomniac. The thing is, there is only ONE other option to the current situation: Insomniac is town, and you are town, and he came out of the gates voting for a townie when he KNOWS all 3 town votes have to land together to win. I'm sorry, Insomniac isn't that stupid. So I'm inclined to believe he's right, or he's Mafia.

Alright, here's the thing. I'm of two minds here:

I've never really bought Insomniac's argument about Robz. However I won't deny that there MIGHT be something there, even if I don't agree with him. He IS right on at least the count that Robz has essentially cast the killing vote both times. (Although to be fair, there was no way for Robz to know that his vote on Morgrim would be the deciding one). On the other hand, Robz HAS essentially laid out why he was casting his vote each time, AND WHEN. The fact that others voted in BEFORE him can hardly be his fault. Still, he may be Mafia. 75% chance.

I agree with some of this. And I agree that I was the principal motivator behind the Morgrim vote (though NOT the kill voter! Morgrim himself did that!). But the K kill was proposed by Galz and carried out by J, so that one really isn't on me.

Yes, I started the Kuildeous train. I fully admit it, and I've admitted that I may take the fall for it. I started looking (I think) too hard for Mafia to be playing safe. On the first day, Kuildeous said a few things that seemed just... off. It seems now the Mafia in this game, although they are WAY ahead, may not be quite as sophisticated as I was giving them credit for. Who knows. I'm certainly not as sure of anything anymore. I was wrong. What do you want me to say? That I didn't do it? I could turn and point my finger now at Jotheonah, who was the first to get behind me and did so quickly, but honestly? I think he's innocent. I think he saw what I was saying and decided I made a valid case.

I'm not so sure I trust the way you're trying to distance yourself. You certainly had the right "read" on Kuildeous at the start of day 2 suggesting he was absolutely town, but you did change tune awfully quickly when things started falling his way. And you DID cast the final vote. Town or Mafia you aren't going to slide out of guilt here.

So I *implore* you all NOT to vote behind Insomniac yet. Maybe that's where we want to go and roll the dice. But given we NOW KNOW that Robz is Mafia or Insomniac is, I think we should take a LONG hard look at how each of them has acted throughout the first 2 days before we make our decision. Win/Lose hangs on that vote.

This is absolutely wrong, and dangerous thinking. We do NOT know that either I or Insomniac are the mafia. It's true that I most strongly suspect Insomniac, and Insomniac is 'certain' about me. But we could both be wrong.

I've already covered the first part above. Maybe you think Insomniac is town casting a vote on town within 10 minutes of day 3 starting. But I don't buy it AT all. And it brings me into my second point:

And, look, this gets to my second point... the most likely mafia pairing at this point seems to me to be Galz and J. They have worked in tandem, sometimes subtly, sometimes overtly. But often in tandem.

Really? Yes. Jotheonah and I BOTH voted to lynch Morgrim. Yep. Absolutely. And hey, look, we BOTH voted to lynch Kuildeous. But guess what? So did you and Voltgloss. Your argument that we've been "working together" is as shallow as Insomniac's case that you've been the primary "finger-pointer" of our bunch. J has supported me as much as he's supported anybody else out here. The only person he DIDN'T get along with, was Voltgloss on day 2. And he was suspicious of Insomniac as well.

I'm not here to make his case for being innocent. He can do that himself. At the moment, I'm inclined to believe he is. But let's assume for JUST a moment (indulge me) that we were the two Mafia. WHY in the WORLD would I be asking Insomniac to take his vote down off you? WHY in the WORLD would I not be casting the second vote now? Do you really think that I'd be worried about protecting for a future round if I had the chance to end it here and now? Really?

And I know it's not going to win me many friends to start suggesting people other than Insomniac. Like, Galz and J, I hope you don't say "ah, Robz suspects us, we will join Insomniac now!"

If I had reason to vote you, I would've done so already. I haven't, and won't cast my vote on ANYBODY until I'm in agreement with the two other people I most likely think to be town. We win or lose by our vote today.

The thing I am most sure about is that Voltgloss is town. I've just gotten such a strong town vibe from him. I know the rest of you find him suspicious, right? Well, I don't.

Perhaps the most interesting thing you've said here. Is he town? Is he Mafia? I don't know. But oddly, I'm inclined to think he's town as well.

I must say one more thing about Insomniac. I still find it difficult to believe that both mafia voted for Morgrim in the first round, because it was unnecessary to do so. Insomniac is the last surviving non-Morgrim voter.

A valid point that I had not given much consideration, although I'm not sure it matters as much as an argument to me in LIGHT of Bozzball and Kuildeous's deaths.

[Galzria]

Okay, I just did some more thinking about whether this is the right time for this. I think it is. Soon it will be too late. ... Insomniac, you should really take that vote off me. Really, really. And, I can back that up.

I AM THE DOCTOR

There was every reason to stay silent up to now. I can't save myself, so a reveal means I die (I've known that since Tables turned up as a dead cop, eliminating the possibility of Jailkeeper.) But now there are 5 people left: I, G, J, V, R. We lose if we do not lynch a mafia this round, because there will be 2 town and 2 mafia and we lose by definition. So we'll never even get to the point tonight where my power helps unless we do this right. (If we do kill the correct person today, this means I die tonight--which is bad, but it's better than losing right now, which I suspect is likely to happen unless I come out, and could in fact still happen because we don't know for sure who is mafia, just that it isn't me.)

For clarification, I saved Kuildeous during the first night. I saved Voltgloss last night.

So, Insomniac, please remove that vote. Seriously, if G and J are the mafia, we could lose instantly. You are really, really, really suspicious to me, but let's not let this feud accidentally end the game.

I hadn't seen this up when I posted. Hmm... interesting. Very interesting. If you ARE the Doctor, you've been very ineffectual. I can't see anything that could possibly back up your claim either. Care explaining your protection choices in detail? I fully agree Insomniac should step down his vote, but not because I buy this story. What does a possible reveal gain you now? Protection from a lynch? That's great if it's true... but I think a Mafia could just as easily make this claim trying to throw suspicion. I'll need to hear more from you before I buy your story.

I guess a good question to everybody else would be is: Is there a doctor in the house? (Or Jailer for that matter) Hmm..

[jotheonah]

Hey look, I'm online. And Galzria is online. And we haven't hammered Robz. Despite that if were mafia, we could win the game that way and there's absolutely no reason for us not to. That should pretty well clear us as a team, eh?

I am not so sure of Volt.  Galzria said last night he wasn't sure of Volt.  Robz, it's suspicious to me that you are. It's suspicious to me that you claimed doctor despite having NO evidence to back that up and the information being totally unhelpful to the town.

I think a Robz-Volt mafia is a very likely pair at this point. I suggested this last round and the onl hard evidence against it was "A bit obvious, innit?" For me, at this point, with two suspicious characters, that's not nearly enough.

A slightly less likely pair is Voltgloss-Insomniac. I don't like that for a lot of reasons. If Insomniac is mafia, then he was setting up today's vote for Robz yesterday, confident that Kuildeous was getting lynched without his help. Pretty smart mafia play. His partner could be anyone.

Galzria-Insomniac is genius-level play, but I'm not ruling it out.

Robz-Insomniac would be crazy because they're firing so many shots back and forth. On the other hand, that could be the strategy: set up a 1 v 1 to make sure at least one of them survives, and then leave that one in such a trusted position they can coast through until the end.  But 2 mafia is a way stronger position than 1. There's no reason to play that long game, especially because Galz and I have made it pretty clear we're unlikely to turn on each other.

(I'm also suspicious of Robz for setting us up as a pair, the only way to discredit our mutual town reads on each other. Though I'm aware that I'm doing the same thing to him and Volt.)

[jotheonah]

I can't believe the mafia killed bozzball. He was absolutely not a threat and plenty of people were suspicious of him. Galzria was the obvious target, or me.

How IS it that we've all been o sure in our town reads of Galz, and yet the mafia continues not to kill him? They should be keeping alive the people who play badly and breed suspicion - the ones we'll lynch for them.  SOmeone who's been consistently helpful and nobody has levelled a serious accusation against? Should definitely have been target #1. And yet, he lives on.

Forget what I said about Galzria and I never turning on each other. I think he might be the mafia.  In which case his partner could be ... absolutely any of you.

[Voltgloss]

Okay, I've read everything posted so far, and the following things leap out at me:

- If Insomniac were Town, I was 80% certain he was the one who would die in the night.  That would have left us with the 4 chronic lynchers - all able to point suspicion at each other in an absolute morass of confusion - and the functional non-participant bozzball.  If the Mafia were 2 of the 4 lynchers, that strikes me as the best possible position for them.  It's going to be hard enough for us to pick out the at least 1 Mafioso among the 4 of us.  It would be a miracle for us to get 2.

I am trying to think of a reason why the Mafia would choose not to create this scenario.  I think the most likely reason, by far, is that they didn't have the option.  The only reason they wouldn't have the option?  If Insomniac were Mafia.   

- This point by jotheonah:

Hey look, I'm online. And Galzria is online. And we haven't hammered Robz. Despite that if were mafia, we could win the game that way and there's absolutely no reason for us not to. That should pretty well clear us as a team, eh?

For me, it does clear the J-G team idea.  Because I was NOT online.  If jotheonah and Galzria were a Mafia team, and were both online at a time when (1) a townie voted for another townie and (2) the third townie was not around, they would have zero incentive to do anything other than drop a 1-2 hammer and win the game. 

- Finally, I was thinking about my "likely pairings" post back in Day 2.  Obviously I was so, so wrong about Kuildeous.  But the question is:  why was I wrong?  What part of my analysis was incorrect?  I've read over what I posted and I still think my analysis of the six most-likely-seeming pairings was accurate.  Where I went wrong was my initial assumptions:  when I said Galzria and bozzball were almost certainly Town.  Now, we know bozzball really was Town all along (at least we got SOMETHING right).  So that leaves Galzria.

To sum up:

- I am quite sure Insomniac is Mafia, mainly because he survived the night.
- I think Galzria is the most likely teammate with Insomniac (assuming Insomniac is indeed Mafia).

I do have one question for Robz.  Well, a two-part question:  Assuming you are Doctor as you claim, could you explain to us why you protected the people you did during the night?

[Voltgloss]

Rereading things, I see I need to address this:

But let's assume for JUST a moment (indulge me) that we were the two Mafia. WHY in the WORLD would I be asking Insomniac to take his vote down off you? WHY in the WORLD would I not be casting the second vote now? Do you really think that I'd be worried about protecting for a future round if I had the chance to end it here and now? Really?

Actually, if you two are Mafia, I think your opening play makes perfect sense.

Insomniac opens the day with a vote.  This is not as insane as it seems.  Insomniac opened Day 2 with a vote as well, and at least jumped on a suspicion bandwagon in his first (only substantive) post in Day 1.  It's consistent for him to do the same thing Day 3, whether or not he's Town or Mafia.  (I do think he's more likely Mafia, but not because he opened with a vote; I think that for the reasons in my previous post.)

Then Galzria gets all over Insomniac's case - not because of who Insomniac suspects (Robz), but for the manner in which Insomniac expressed those suspicions (an early vote).  If the two of them are Mafia, this is a way for them to distance from each other - "we CAN'T be a team, look at how much we're fighting!" - while still keeping their suspicions trained on the same target. 

Galzria, if you two are Mafia, I think the LAST thing you'd want to do is follow on Insomniac's vote with a vote of your own.  That's the most transparent bandwagon on the Oregon Trail.  Sure, you'd only need 1 more vote to get your 3, but look at the audience you're trying to convince:  me and jotheonah.  Past play shows that if we agree on ANYTHING, it's that bandwagons are suspicious and we're not going to leap quickly to join one.  So a 1-2 from you and Insomniac would do nothing but generate deep suspicion in the both of us.

So the smarter play is for you to wait, and not give the third (hammer) vote until one of us has signed on as second voter.  What better way to set yourself up as the continued voice of reason then to call loudly for Insomniac to take down his vote?  If you're both Mafia, there is no downside to this.  All Insomniac has to do is ignore you!  "Hey look, we CAN'T be Mafia because he refuses to do what I say!  We're fighting with each other here!"  ...and then, when me or J finally votes Robz, you can sweep in with the hammer and close the game.  It's a smart play from a smart player.

[Galzria]

Jotheonah and Voltgloss:

On the one hand, I think it's absolutely fair to suspect me. If not only because you haven't in the past, but because of my charge on Kuildeous. But look, if you make the wrong lynch now, it's game over.

 I alluded to a point in my posts that I would like to bring back in detail here: The only person who knows their role is the person themselve. This is the lesson that I learned from Kuildeous's death. The WHOLE time I was persecuting him, he KNEW that he was innocent. Nobody else knew that, but he did.

This is important to me for one main reason: We are now trying to find out who the Mafia are based on learning his innocence. He was trying to figure out who the Mafia were KNOWING that he was innocent. He was using the information we JUST got the whole time.

Now, look back at  Kuildeous's thought process. His vote for bozzball was a technical one, not a relevant one. But look back from there. All of his  thoughts/suspicions are my launching pad. And he rarely, if ever, had me suspect #1. Suspicious? Yes. More than others? No. I didn't listen to him in life, maybe I can in death (great letter death scene letter K).

-----

That all said, I was pretty clear last night that I was leaning Insomniac. That still holds true. I believe we are looking at I-V, or even I-R. I-J I don't see as much, but I could be wrong.

So, that's where I stand. If I fall for what happened to K, then I'm sorry town, because I played us out of two rounds, not just one. I can't say why I'm still alive. K's analysis on bozzball was dead on. I was the only one who recognized that. An alive bozzball today would've meant a Mafia win. So I am lost as to the strategy the Mafia are playing. But if you *honestly* think that  Insomniac and I are a pair, well... I don't know what more to say. At least I believe you'll have a 50% chance of being right. I'm more and more wary of that opening vote day 3 though.

[Insomniac]

UNVOTE

Still catching up but Robz roleclaim will cause me to do this. For now anyways

[Insomniac]

Ok so I'm still a lot of people's suspect number 1 and that's fine but as Voltgloss pointed out not unusual. Yes I am aware that if we lynch incorrectly we lose. Robz roleclaim seems a bit weak this late and more like a mafia throwing off the scent. Maybe its the truth but I see no reason to protect Volt on day 2

Kuildeous' bozzball train? Seriously? Does NOONE remember that I pointed this out before him? (In the only post he EVER suspected me in)

Bozzball's murder in the night makes no sense to me either but maybe it was because any other murder would have been suspicious and if bozzball came back could have turned the tides.

I would also like to point out that since I voted. Every single other person has weighed in. I think this makes it almost a certainty that either me or robz is mafia, perhaps both.

I ALSO expected to die last night. BUT the mafia know that Im a huge target. Everyone suspected me on day 2. And will continue to do so because I recklessly carry on the robz train. Actually this makes me rethink my stance on robz but only slightly.

I dont think anything substantial enough has been said today aside from the vote thing which I was well aware of.

I was willing to gamble that Robz was mafia and if he is then I feel like I have a success on the fact he didn't get lynched when EVERYONE had a chance to weigh in.

As per many others suggestions though I will hold off on revoting until everyone else has a chance to weigh in on these thoughts.

[jotheonah]

Insomniac is shaping up to be the easy choice that everyone is advocating for. Which means he's NOT mafia. Our first two lynches were bandwagons with pretty much no one opposed to them except the lynchees. And they both turned out town.

I think the worst decision we can make this time is the obvious one. I'm much more inclined to vote Robz this round then Insomniac.

[Insomniac]

Another thought to consider with regards to Kuildeous. He is the ONLY one that was on the Robz train with me. And well look where that got him. 6 feet underground.

[Voltgloss]

Insomniac is shaping up to be the easy choice that everyone is advocating for. Which means he's NOT mafia. Our first two lynches were bandwagons with pretty much no one opposed to them except the lynchees. And they both turned out town.

I hear this.  I'm just having trouble seeing why the Mafia would kill bozzball instead of Insomniac, if Insomniac is Town.  I would really like hearing everyone else's thoughts on this question. 

I suppose that - assuming 2 of the 4 chronic lynchers are Mafia - they could be thinking it'll be easy to get at least 1 lyncher on their side against Insomniac?  But why is that a better move than killing Insomniac (who is around to defend himself) vs. bozzball (who, I think we can safely assume, wouldn't)?

If Insomniac is Town, I think it's reasonable for the Mafia to assume he would continue his crusade against Robz today.  (As he has in fact done.)  That would mean one of two things: 

- If the Mafia were some combination of me, Galzria, and/or Jotheonah, than we would have been planning to jump on Insomniac's bandwagon and lynch Robz for the win.  But... that didn't happen when it could have.

- The only other option is that Robz is Mafia.  Which means the Mafia knew, at the end of Day 2, that if Insomniac lived he would likely focus suspicion on Robz again in Day 3.  Why would they leave Insomniac alive to do just that, if one of their number is Robz?

I'm just struggling to come up with a scenario that is more likely than a scenario where Insomniac is Mafia.

[Insomniac]

Insomniac is shaping up to be the easy choice that everyone is advocating for. Which means he's NOT mafia. Our first two lynches were bandwagons with pretty much no one opposed to them except the lynchees. And they both turned out town.

I hear this.  I'm just having trouble seeing why the Mafia would kill bozzball instead of Insomniac, if Insomniac is Town.  I would really like hearing everyone else's thoughts on this question. 

I suppose that - assuming 2 of the 4 chronic lynchers are Mafia - they could be thinking it'll be easy to get at least 1 lyncher on their side against Insomniac?  But why is that a better move than killing Insomniac (who is around to defend himself) vs. bozzball (who, I think we can safely assume, wouldn't)?

If Insomniac is Town, I think it's reasonable for the Mafia to assume he would continue his crusade against Robz today.  (As he has in fact done.)  That would mean one of two things: 

- If the Mafia were some combination of me, Galzria, and/or Jotheonah, than we would have been planning to jump on Insomniac's bandwagon and lynch Robz for the win.  But... that didn't happen when it could have.

- The only other option is that Robz is Mafia.  Which means the Mafia knew, at the end of Day 2, that if Insomniac lived he would likely focus suspicion on Robz again in Day 3.  Why would they leave Insomniac alive to do just that, if one of their number is Robz?

I'm just struggling to come up with a scenario that is more likely than a scenario where Insomniac is Mafia.

As the only person you DON'T want feedback from Ill give you some anyways. I have already suggested a scenario that is at least equally likely.

Robz is mafia.

Now why bozzball. Well there was a lot of people that wanted to vote for me on day 2. So why kill me in the night when the town would do it? Suppose I was killed during the night. This leaves a scenario where the 2 mafia vote for someone the 2 town vote for someone else and we have bozzball in limbo. For the sake of my argument assume that I am town and this is learned upon my death. This means that IF the town get it right and vote for mafia which is still a possibility they will not. Then it comes down to bozzball. Say bozzball actually does his due dilligence. Well then he's gonna vote properly from the information gained from me being town.

Furthermore consider the following. I have a "crusade" against Robz. Assume Robz is mafia. Review day 2. Who suspected Robz? Kuildeous and I. Well one of us is dead, the other (those of you keeping track thats me) is again crusading. Now think about what that did for me on day 2 I mean really? It made me MORE suspicious than Robz. Before my "crusade" I wasn't really on the radar, I could have just kept pointing fingers like everyone else (I still think Robz did this more and once it stuck he pushed it) but I didn't. I've known I am right about Robz since Day 2. I still know I'm right, and whats best for the town is mafia dying. I hope that we can all see that before day 3 is up.

Robz made a roleclaim and well a roleclaim seems like a way to get me off his back it also seems unlikely that he is actually that role. Why claim it now?

[Insomniac]

And Robz as per my playing is stupid, I haven't lynched any town or been involved in the lynching thereof. My conscious is clear, is yours?

[Robz888]

I do have one question for Robz.  Well, a two-part question:  Assuming you are Doctor as you claim, could you explain to us why you protected the people you did during the night?

Absolutely.

Going into the first night, we had just lynched Morgrim. At the time, my thinking was this: because Morgrim turned out to be town, the Mafia would have voted to kill Morgrim if given the chance. (Later during Day 2 I changed my mind on this, as I've noted, and started suspecting the mafia would have done just the opposite: refrained from voting because there was no need to, and it ended up only taking 4 real votes to kill the guy anyway.) But at the time, anybody who had the chance to vote for Morgrim but didn't was most innocent to me. That was Tables and Kuildeous. I was pretty sure that both were innocent. I thought the fact that Morgrim had implicated Tables before dying made Tables more likely to survive the night--why would they kill the guy who was just called out by the only person we know to be innocent? that's someone you leave in the game and direct suspicion toward, if you're mafia--so I chose Kuildeous. In hindsight, a ruinous choice.

Last night was a simpler choice. With Kuildeous not being mafia, that left Insomnaic, Jtheonah, Galzria, Voltgloss, and Bozzball. The first three of those people in my mind had some decent chance of being mafia. Voltgloss I trust more to be town, and I also thought he might be in some danger just because nobody is SUPER suspicious of him. So it seemed like he was the best and most worthy choice. I barely even considered Bozzball because he's been such a non-entity, and I didn't see how killing him could really benefit the mafia enough to make them do it. I didn't see how it would benefit us either, if I saved him. I mean, the more living bodies the better, but he's had so few thoughts or contributions. Didn't seem worth it in any sense.

So, that was my thought process for those saves. By the way, in post #254, just as Day 2 begins, you'll see me saying things consistent with the reasoning I just gave:

Is it Kuildeous? No. I really don't think it is.

Since I suspect suspicion, and probably some votes for me this round, and I will be gone most of tomorrow, I want to say: It only takes 4 votes to kill, now! Please, please, please do not cast the 4th vote against me without giving me a chance to address you.

Okay, those are all my thoughts for now. Off to bed for me! Please read, and I would love to read thoughts from others.

I doubt anybody will find this particularly compelling evidence, but I didn't want to die without a "chance to address you" because I was the doctor. Yeah, yeah, neither did Kuildeous, but you'll see that my plea was more preemptive than his. And it was made because I was doctor.

Robz made a roleclaim and well a roleclaim seems like a way to get me off his back it also seems unlikely that he is actually that role. Why claim it now?

Wrong. It's more likely than unlikely. Since we know among the dead there is exactly one cop and the rest vanillas, of the remaining 5 people: there is a 33% chance we have a doctor, a 33% chance we have a jailkeeper, and a 33% chance we have neither. (Right? I think so.) In other words, if you think I am mafia, there was a 66% chance my roleclaim would be immediately contradicted by somebody else. What's the more likely scenario? I got really lucky? Or, given, what I've said about who I saved and why and how I've played, it is simply the truth that I am the doctor?

(Again, Insomniac is the only one I see saying things that just distort the facts. "It seems unlikely that he is actually the role." I would be interested of course to hear his argument for why he doesn't believe it, but it's simply not true to say it's unlikely.)

Insomniac is right that I revealed my role to get him off my back. That's because the vote for me was game over if Insomniac was not mafia, so it was really important to get him to unvote it. I also believed that guarding the secret of my role into another night was unlikely to be useful, because there are so many game over scenarios before we even get to that point.

Other thoughts:

The fact that G and J did not jump on me does in fact largely clear them as a pair. It makes Insomniac a more likely mafia in my view, because it makes more sense that there was only one other mafia who could have voted for me and obviously that's not enough. I still say that one of them, either G and J, are likely to be mafia alongside Insomniac.

And Robz as per my playing is stupid, I haven't lynched any town or been involved in the lynching thereof. My conscious is clear, is yours?

My conscience is certainly not clean. Neither is Volt's, J's, or Galz's. Of the remaining people, your conscience is absolutely the most clean. It's pristine. Based on that, we either accept that both mafia actively participated in both lynches and got their hands dirty at every opportunity, or we accept that you must be one of the mafia.

[Insomniac]

Robz:

Wrong. It's more likely than unlikely. Since we know among the dead there is exactly one cop and the rest vanillas, of the remaining 5 people: there is a 33% chance we have a doctor, a 33% chance we have a jailkeeper, and a 33% chance we have neither. (Right? I think so.) In other words, if you think I am mafia, there was a 66% chance my roleclaim would be immediately contradicted by somebody else. What's the more likely scenario? I got really lucky? Or, given, what I've said about who I saved and why and how I've played, it is simply the truth that I am the doctor?

The possible setups include 3 setups where there is 1 power role and 3 where there are 2.
We know that there is at least one town cop. With this knowledge there are 3 possible setups as you described. leading to the 33% chance.

HOWEVER, YOU do not have a 33% chance of being a doctor. When the doctor was assigned if it was, there was an equal chance for all vanillas to have that role (Im going to just use vanilla to shine the most favourable light possible on you). This means that assuming there is a doctor you have a 9-2-1=6, 1/6 chance or 16.6667% chance of being the doctor.

Now factoring in the likelihood of there being a doctor you have a 16% likelihood in 33% of the setups. This can be expresed as 1/6*1/3 = 1/18 or .05 which means that there is a 5% chance that you are in fact the doctor.

This is of course only the chance of you being a doctor and has nothing to do with the transpirings up until this point.

To which I draw attention to the fact I brought up that there could be another role on day 2 and that no one had claimed it. You had a vote on you at the time and a lot of suspicion your way. At this point you said there has been no reason to. Not a stake in the casket at all except that you claimed your role in Mafia I with almost no pressure on you. If I were in Mafia I I would be inclined to believe that claim. Here, not so much.

You not getting hammered while I was asleep cements the fact that one of us is mafia to me. And well I'm not mafia. I don't see anything changing my mind but it does seem pressing that people have a consensus even though the town has a nasty habit of lynching town when they get a consensus

Time for my real life occupation claim. I am a computer scientist. I program applications. Computer science is basically a different branch of math and I took math as my minor. I also hold a record on the Putnam exam for the college I attended.

[Robz888]

Robz:

Wrong. It's more likely than unlikely. Since we know among the dead there is exactly one cop and the rest vanillas, of the remaining 5 people: there is a 33% chance we have a doctor, a 33% chance we have a jailkeeper, and a 33% chance we have neither. (Right? I think so.) In other words, if you think I am mafia, there was a 66% chance my roleclaim would be immediately contradicted by somebody else. What's the more likely scenario? I got really lucky? Or, given, what I've said about who I saved and why and how I've played, it is simply the truth that I am the doctor?

The possible setups include 3 setups where there is 1 power role and 3 where there are 2.
We know that there is at least one town cop. With this knowledge there are 3 possible setups as you described. leading to the 33% chance.

HOWEVER, YOU do not have a 33% chance of being a doctor. When the doctor was assigned if it was, there was an equal chance for all vanillas to have that role (Im going to just use vanilla to shine the most favourable light possible on you). This means that assuming there is a doctor you have a 9-2-1=6, 1/6 chance or 16.6667% chance of being the doctor.

Now factoring in the likelihood of there being a doctor you have a 16% likelihood in 33% of the setups. This can be expresed as 1/6*1/3 = 1/18 or .05 which means that there is a 5% chance that you are in fact the doctor.

This is of course only the chance of you being a doctor and has nothing to do with the transpirings up until this point.

Okay, but we know that all of the Vanillas who died were not Doctors, because roles get revealed. At present, there is a 0% chance that Morgrim, Tables, Kuildeous, and Bozzball were Doctors. So my odds at this point are 1 in 5 (20%) that if there is a doctor, he is me. But like I said, if I am mafia, declaring doctor leads to counterclaims in 66% of the scenarios.

To which I draw attention to the fact I brought up that there could be another role on day 2 and that no one had claimed it. You had a vote on you at the time and a lot of suspicion your way. At this point you said there has been no reason to. Not a stake in the casket at all except that you claimed your role in Mafia I with almost no pressure on you. If I were in Mafia I I would be inclined to believe that claim. Here, not so much.

You not getting hammered while I was asleep cements the fact that one of us is mafia to me. And well I'm not mafia. I don't see anything changing my mind but it does seem pressing that people have a consensus even though the town has a nasty habit of lynching town when they get a consensus

In this game there was no reason for me to come out as Doctor until now, I think that's obvious. I cannot comment on anything about Mafia I, so unfortunately I can't talk about the rationale for any of my decisions there. All I can do is encourage you to read the whole thread and hope that that answers any questions you may have about my actions. Sorry I can't say more about that, it's just the rules.

[Insomniac]

Them not being doctors doesn't increase the chance that you were picked to be a doctor. In fact if I was to be picky I would say that you have a 1/9*1/3 chance which is 1/27 or 3.5%. It increases the odds your a doctor IF there is one. Which using your math nets you a 1/5*1/3=1/15 or 6.667% chance

I also see no value in a counterclaim. From looking at counterclaims in Mafia I a counterclaim leads to lynching the counter claim so that you can gain info. So say I counter claim doctor (I'm not a doctor I'm a vanilla). The only value that can be gained is lynching me to see that I am the doctor which means that I'm telling the truth. At this point with 2 mafia and 3 town there is 0 value to a role claim or a counter claim.

I understand you can't talk about Mafia 1. To be fair I'm not sure I'm supposed to but you kept saying read Mafia 1 and well I did do some reading (I won't read it all its almost as long as this one ) I guess in a way Mafia is like fight club you don't talk about it, which means wait...crap I talked about both.

I am not the doctor, or a jailkeeper. I am a vanilla townie. Mark these words

[Robz888]

Them not being doctors doesn't increase the chance that you were picked to be a doctor. In fact if I was to be picky I would say that you have a 1/9*1/3 chance which is 1/27 or 3.5%. It increases the odds your a doctor IF there is one. Which using your math nets you a 1/5*1/3=1/15 or 6.667% chance

Okay, then stop worrying about the odds I was picked to be doctor at the beginning. We have NEW information, that half the people initially in the game are not doctor. So the 1/9 in 1/3 chance is now a 1/5 in 1/3 chance. But I mean, the odds of me being doctor are not greater than anyone else. The odds of you being mafia aren't greater than anyone else. However, the odds that I would be able to lie about being doctor are 1/3. The odds of a counterclaim are 2/3. I'm sure that doesn't automatically clear me--mafia do take risks--but its worth something. I am hoping that that, coupled with my explanations, is reason to trust me here.

I also see no value in a counterclaim. From looking at counterclaims in Mafia I a counterclaim leads to lynching the counter claim so that you can gain info. So say I counter claim doctor (I'm not a doctor I'm a vanilla). The only value that can be gained is lynching me to see that I am the doctor which means that I'm telling the truth. At this point with 2 mafia and 3 town there is 0 value to a role claim or a counter claim.

This is only true if your goal is to remain alive (the mafia) rather than to correct all false information (the town). If there is a doctor other than me they would and should absolutely counterclaim. Then you would all know that either me or that person were mafia. The fact that the counterclaimers are generally lynched first is a symptom of the fact that the counterclaimers are usually the mafia. But if someone else is the doctor, they would and should absolutely say so. If you were a doctor, you should say so and then it ends right now: either you are mafia, or I am.

You strike me as a mafia member who needs to insist that I am not doctor because you're too invested in making me the final innocent lynch and you have no other direction to go.

[Robz888]

And that's all the arguing I can do until later today!

[Insomniac]

If I were mafia I wouldn't care which of the 3 remaining townies died. I do.

Robz:

Quote from: Insomniac on Today at 02:53:02 pm
I also see no value in a counterclaim. From looking at counterclaims in Mafia I a counterclaim leads to lynching the counter claim so that you can gain info. So say I counter claim doctor (I'm not a doctor I'm a vanilla). The only value that can be gained is lynching me to see that I am the doctor which means that I'm telling the truth. At this point with 2 mafia and 3 town there is 0 value to a role claim or a counter claim.

This is only true if your goal is to remain alive (the mafia) rather than to correct all false information (the town). If there is a doctor other than me they would and should absolutely counterclaim. Then you would all know that either me or that person were mafia. The fact that the counterclaimers are generally lynched first is a symptom of the fact that the counterclaimers are usually the mafia. But if someone else is the doctor, they would and should absolutely say so. If you were a doctor, you should say so and then it ends right now: either you are mafia, or I am.

This is absolutely not true, lynching the counterclaim or the claim leads to a loss if they are town, why are you trying to hide this information? If we lynch wrong we lose, no one can counterclaim you because lynching the counterclaim has no value, if they were town we lose. If they weren't town, then we are in the game but the mafia has no reason to counterclaim if thats the case, nor does a townie who is not a doctor.

Reasons to claim being a doctor, you are a mafia, or you want to stay alive (yourself). It doesn't matter if your the doctor give me a reason to believe your town. We can't be concerned with having a doctor alive we need to be concerned with lynching mafia. Because think about it like this

Scenario 1: You are a doctor
1a)We lynch you - We lose
1b)We lynch a townie - We lose
1c)We lynch a mafia (not you) - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance

Scenario 2: You are not the doctor but are town
2a)We lynch you - We lose
2b)We lynch a townie - We lose
2c)We lynch a mafia (not you) - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance

Scenario 3: You are mafia claiming doctor to stay alive and redirect votes
3a)We lynch you -  Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance
3b)We lynch a townie - We lose
3c)We lynch the other mafia - Hurray! 1 Townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance

Let's examine a scenario 4 with counterclaim
4a)The real doctor is lynched (you or the counterclaim)0 - No information can be gained from this we lost
4b)The mafia counterclaim is lynched - Hurray, 1 townie dies in the night, 2-1, We have a chance


You claiming doctor now when it has low relevance is not useful, it does nothing but muddle the information we have. Perhaps allowing people to not vote for you.

[Robz888]

I didn't say we should lynch the counterclaimant (though I would if there was, because I am the doctor). I said if someone else was the doctor they should say so, because that would be good for the town, because then we could narrow down the mafia to a 1/2 choice. You were saying they shouldn't reveal, which is silly.

[Robz888]

Claiming doctor doesn't have low relevance now. It will never have more relevance--you voted for me, and we lose if you kill me!