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Author Topic: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Game Over - Skum Wins!  (Read 118244 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1100 on: April 01, 2021, 03:46:40 pm »

I honestly can't tell if this case is good or trash. It makes a lot of sense to me but this whole game has been so head-scratchy.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1101 on: April 01, 2021, 05:12:16 pm »

I think you are making some sense.

I’m not sure I’m willing to convict Space yet. I think that EFHW is wily enough to kill Ash, if for no other reason than it throws suspicion on Space that has existed before. And even if Dylan wouldn’t do that, EFHW could have convinced him.

I am not sure I see that move from you/Dylan.

It would also have to be the move from EFHW/Space

I have no idea what Dylan/Space would do. Although I’m not sure she writes the Dylan common denominator post if it’s them.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1102 on: April 01, 2021, 05:42:48 pm »

Deadline is this time tomorrow.

I’m obviously deferring to Space, but I think my vote preference list is:
EFHW
Dylan
Joth
Space
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1103 on: April 01, 2021, 06:19:11 pm »

Sorry, ignore that last part I said it wrong.

I guess it IS possible that MiX just chose not to shoot. I got confused. There was only one night without a nightkill.

Were you assuming here that if MiX had shot someone, then we'd have seen two deaths from N2, and therefor that the lack of second kill means you thought that he targeted a bullet-proof traitor? I was assuming that being killed stopped him from taking a shot (i.e. that scum kills come above town kills in resolution order), but I haven't actually checked that with a mod question.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1104 on: April 01, 2021, 06:36:50 pm »

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded.

I probably can't, just because I'm not going back and looking at your scum games to find out. I don't think this is the kind of play that anyone really has a meta for, it's just something that plays out naturally. Like I don't think scum!you said, "Hey, I'm going to [insert the narrative I laid out above here]."  I think it's more likely you simply made an early decision to include EFHW in your scum reads but didn't plan on hard busing the whole game, and the game flow largely left you alone and let you maintain that stance without any real support or pushback on you until now.

Huh, I disagree about not having meta for bus-related play, because I think more risk-averse people (which I'd class Didds as, since she feels like me in that respect) are less likely to be comfortable with it, and less likely than not-risk-averse players to do it aggressively.

How much of the distrust of meta is just because you don't have time to invest in looking for the old scum games, and how much is genuinely that you just disagree on whether it's something people do quite habitually? Do you believe my conclusion that Joth is really unlikely to be non-traitor scum based on the fact that mcmc voted for him hard in D1, in spite of the fact that in all the other recent scum-games I could find, mcmc really never seemed to bus?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1105 on: April 01, 2021, 06:44:56 pm »

I find it interesting that everyone except EFHW is putting forward proposed pairs where EFHW is scum now. It almost makes me not want to exile her, which isn't a good place to be this close to deadline. However, saying she's a possible pair with someone is quite different from laying down a vote, and also at this late stage in the game, probably some bussing is necessary for the final scum to stay hidden even if EFHW is one of them.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1106 on: April 01, 2021, 06:51:41 pm »

Everyone, but especially Space, do you know what your schedule looks like tomorrow? I don't want to vote until we've heard all that we/you need to hear in case of the quickhammer. Deadline is at like ten to six.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #1107 on: April 01, 2021, 06:55:14 pm »

I tracked Didds N1 and Space N2. Got a non-incriminating result each time.

If you have time you can go check. People already pointed out that I moved away from my "scum off-wagon" theory and scumread on Space today. This is why.

Given we're in a situation where we're strongly considering that the traitor wasn't recruited N0, then faust's results really need to be part of the conversation.

I also think it would be good to check the resolution order explicitly:

If mcmc had carried out the NK night 1, and was also the vig target, would his kill have gone through?

If the vig had shot at someone N2, and also been the target of the scum NK, would the vig's target have died, assuming that target had no extra forms of protection like being bulletproof?
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1108 on: April 01, 2021, 07:06:28 pm »

Everyone, but especially Space, do you know what your schedule looks like tomorrow? I don't want to vote until we've heard all that we/you need to hear in case of the quickhammer. Deadline is at like ten to six.

It's a public holiday here, so I'm free! Actually, I'm so burnt out that I'm using some leave and extending the long weekend Easter holiday into a full week off next week. As for tomorrow night, I probably  have a social video call for an hour or two from about 2.30pm forum time (our clocks changed last weekend so I'm 5 hours ahead of forum time again), but I won't let that stop me being active in the run-up to deadline time.
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jotheonah

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1109 on: April 01, 2021, 07:26:10 pm »

Sorry, ignore that last part I said it wrong.

I guess it IS possible that MiX just chose not to shoot. I got confused. There was only one night without a nightkill.

Were you assuming here that if MiX had shot someone, then we'd have seen two deaths from N2, and therefor that the lack of second kill means you thought that he targeted a bullet-proof traitor? I was assuming that being killed stopped him from taking a shot (i.e. that scum kills come above town kills in resolution order), but I haven't actually checked that with a mod question.

Yes that's the assumption. That would be a weird way to mod. Resolution order usually only comes into affect with things like roleblocking. I've never heard of a game where being killed keeps you from killing that same night.
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jotheonah

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1110 on: April 01, 2021, 07:28:35 pm »

I'll be around.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1111 on: April 01, 2021, 08:30:34 pm »

A whole week off, Space!! That’s amazing!!!!
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Dylan32

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1112 on: April 01, 2021, 09:20:18 pm »

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded.

I probably can't, just because I'm not going back and looking at your scum games to find out. I don't think this is the kind of play that anyone really has a meta for, it's just something that plays out naturally. Like I don't think scum!you said, "Hey, I'm going to [insert the narrative I laid out above here]."  I think it's more likely you simply made an early decision to include EFHW in your scum reads but didn't plan on hard busing the whole game, and the game flow largely left you alone and let you maintain that stance without any real support or pushback on you until now.

Huh, I disagree about not having meta for bus-related play, because I think more risk-averse people (which I'd class Didds as, since she feels like me in that respect) are less likely to be comfortable with it, and less likely than not-risk-averse players to do it aggressively.

How much of the distrust of meta is just because you don't have time to invest in looking for the old scum games, and how much is genuinely that you just disagree on whether it's something people do quite habitually? Do you believe my conclusion that Joth is really unlikely to be non-traitor scum based on the fact that mcmc voted for him hard in D1, in spite of the fact that in all the other recent scum-games I could find, mcmc really never seemed to bus?

Oh, meta definitely affects people's likelihood of busing. And I clearly think that, given how much mcmc vs joth has colored my read of joth since mcmc flipped. However, and this is something I think I've either tried to distinguish already or I've just been thinking about, there is a difference between a soft bus and a hard bus. I think a hard bus like what mcmc did to joth D1 is more affected by a player's meta/playstyle/risk-aversion, because it is a much stronger statement that is more likely to be used as evidence. A soft bus, like including your partner as a scum read is much easier to do, and is something everyone should do at times (not everytime) just as a basic skill to mask your alignment.

So I think where our disagreement has come from, Space, is that my memory was that Didds had done mostly soft busing, and the moments they hard bused were those that there was no real pressure on EFHW already, and they didn't stay there long enough to build pressure. I guess I could be wrong about that, which would push me more towards Joth/EFHW rather than Didds, but I think it's totally possible (if not probable) that EFHW started out with a soft bus, and as the game went it was just natural and easy given game flow to keep that up and increasingly add to the bus beyond what they would normally be comfortable doing.

Also, I think every good mafia player (including Didds here, because I genuinely think so) would be willing to bus in the right circumstances, because if you never do, it makes it a lot harder for your partners in late game PoE if you flip scum in the mid to late game. So even if a person normally doesn't, I'll always consider that they might. And as I type this, I realize I was leaning into mcmc's meta so much that I really need to read joth again apart from that. Ok, before the deadline, I will iso EFHW and joth myself. I will probably not post all my thoughts, but I will share my final opinions on both before voting.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1113 on: April 01, 2021, 09:23:30 pm »

I think I will be around, but I need to double check my plans to go back home for Easter and what time I need to leave.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1114 on: April 01, 2021, 09:49:42 pm »

I think I will be around, but I need to double check my plans to go back home for Easter and what time I need to leave.

Is home far away? I hope it’s a great trip. We’re taking our kid camping this weekend, which isn’t my first choice, but should be fun regardless because fires and marshmallows!!
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EFHW

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1115 on: April 01, 2021, 11:08:12 pm »

It's starting to bug me that Dylan keeps putting Didds and me together as partners as though it were fact and not his supposition.

I'm also disappointed to see Didds putting me at the top of her scum list, still. Perhaps now that it is Day 5, you could actually make a case?

I might write your names each on its own index card and throw them in the air. I'll vote for the 1st two that land. Or maybe I should vote for the last two?
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1116 on: April 01, 2021, 11:42:14 pm »

I can be on for deadline,  sporadically until 4:45.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1117 on: April 01, 2021, 11:46:07 pm »

FYI, I would absolutely have killed Space over ashersky. Their attention to detail is dangerous. And I would have wanted to use joth's tunnel to my advantage.
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EFHW

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1118 on: April 01, 2021, 11:48:24 pm »

@Dylan, I don't understand your question at 1097.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 3!
« Reply #1119 on: April 01, 2021, 11:51:46 pm »

If mcmc had carried out the NK night 1, and was also the vig target, would his kill have gone through?

If the vig had shot at someone N2, and also been the target of the scum NK, would the vig's target have died, assuming that target had no extra forms of protection like being bulletproof?

I have bumped this question out to Swowl, however it IS his anniversary tonight - so I do not know that he will check in to answer, and I cannot answer for him.
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TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1120 on: April 01, 2021, 11:57:58 pm »

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded

Scum play against their metas all the time. Your past games don't prove anything. Also, it's almost like you are scum here, arguing for why I am not your partner.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1121 on: April 02, 2021, 09:02:49 am »

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded

Scum play against their metas all the time. Your past games don't prove anything. Also, it's almost like you are scum here, arguing for why I am not your partner.

Nah, I’m saying that I’m voting for you because I think you are the most likely to be scum. At this point based mostly on POE. In early days it was on the nature of hire play. There is also a jumbo wall post from earlier today with quotes of the things I found scummy.

I wrote that when I was reflecting on my previous play. I went back and looked at the one time I was scum and posted about that debacle, then some third party games, and two multi ball games. I couldn’t see any evidence of the behavior Dylan suggests I’m using. I appreciate that god players are flexible, but I also appreciate that we all have orientations from which we start.

The e/EFHW/mailmi scum strong arm in Asher’s game (falling skies 2??) is as legendary in my mind as the Space Gambit and has taught me to never underestimate or predict your behavior, so the Ash kill seems well within your capabilities.

If it’s not you, then I think it’s Space and Joth in which case we’ve already lost. Gg
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1122 on: April 02, 2021, 01:09:53 pm »

If Dylan can provide any instance of me bussing as scum beyond that game, I will be astounded

Scum play against their metas all the time. Your past games don't prove anything. Also, it's almost like you are scum here, arguing for why I am not your partner.

Nah, I’m saying that I’m voting for you because I think you are the most likely to be scum. At this point based mostly on POE. In early days it was on the nature of hire play. There is also a jumbo wall post from earlier today with quotes of the things I found scummy.

I wrote that when I was reflecting on my previous play. I went back and looked at the one time I was scum and posted about that debacle, then some third party games, and two multi ball games. I couldn’t see any evidence of the behavior Dylan suggests I’m using. I appreciate that god players are flexible, but I also appreciate that we all have orientations from which we start.

The e/EFHW/mailmi scum strong arm in Asher’s game (falling skies 2??) is as legendary in my mind as the Space Gambit and has taught me to never underestimate or predict your behavior, so the Ash kill seems well within your capabilities.

If it’s not you, then I think it’s Space and Joth in which case we’ve already lost. Gg
It's not me. And I wouldn't have killed ash. I don't actually see that as a wily move.

I reread you and don't have a case. Maybe it's OMGUS. But this leaves joth, Dylan and Space. Great.

We could take a gamble and vote Space. I really feel like shaking things up somehow. And it would be great theater if we were right! But seriously, logic and intuition are both failing me.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1123 on: April 02, 2021, 01:40:21 pm »

I feel you, EFHW.  I have no idea and no solid case on anyone. Hunches and possibilities are the straws I am grasping at.

faust had a scum read on space for about half a day, and then changed his mind.  No one has suspected them at all outside of that.
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Re: M134: Conference Call Mafia V 2.0 - Day 5!
« Reply #1124 on: April 02, 2021, 02:03:10 pm »

I feel you, EFHW.  I have no idea and no solid case on anyone. Hunches and possibilities are the straws I am grasping at.

faust had a scum read on space for about half a day, and then changed his mind.  No one has suspected them at all outside of that.

He suspected them enough to investigate them. I think he may have also thought they were the vig, because on Day 2 he voted them saying "now that there's no reason not to."

I'll be only only intermittently until 5.
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