Here's the extended version of my wagon analysis thoughts. I'm aware that the more "gut" players are going to be disinterested, and that the logic side of things doesn't capture everything. However, it does capture people's voting actions independent of their rhetoric, which I like.
The hypercube wagon on D1 went to 5 people at #307 when mcmc joined. Hyper has flipped green, and Mail-mi has flipped orange, meaning that the red scums we need to kill off would almost certainly have been counting him as green at that point.
It was a four-person wagon from #256, and having been at 5 people from #307-#327, it dropped to 4 people when Glooble sheeped joth onto the mcmc wagon at #328, taking mcmc up to 5 instead.
The un-flipped names on that hypercube wagon are {e,Glooble,UoS} -- I'm not involved in this wagon at all, so even if you don't trust me, you should probably trust that at least one of those three is likely to be scum, though of course with this style of wagon-gazing, nothing is guaranteed.
The mcmc wagon being at 5 is also relevant, since, he and hyper have both flipped town. I still have WCD showing up green on my notes, so to me, the only two non-coloured-in people are joth and Glooble at the end. Just to be safe, let's say at least one scum in {WCD,Space,joth,Glooble}.
At #1095, my wagon was up to 4 votes in D2. For me, that means a likely scum in {e,Glooble,joth}, though others will want to add me to that list, so {Space,e,Glooble,joth}.
At #1505, e put UoS to 4 votes. It looks like everyone except Awaclus then posted between that point at joth unvoting at #1536. So either UoS is scum, or and both scum are probably on-wagon already. {joth,Awaclus,Ash,e}
The first 3-person UoS wagon of D4, from #1713-#1778, is another one I wasn't on. That gives us at least one scum in {UoS,e,Glooble,WCD}. Everyone posted in that time, and Ash even said he'd hammer if someone took it to L-1.
Finally, there's a second UoS three-person wagon from from #1792-#1822. That one gives us one scum in {UoS,e,WCD,Ash}. In that period of time, UoS himself is the only player who didn't post.
Constraints:
At least one scum in each of these five lists:
{e,Glooble,UoS}
{WCD,Space,joth,Glooble}
{Space,e,Glooble,joth}
{UoS,e,Glooble,WCD}
{UoS,e,WCD,Ash}
Then either scum!UoS or both scum in {joth,Awaclus,Ash,e}.
Every possible pairing, with the number of broken constraints:
Space-Ash 2
Space-Awaclus 3
Space-e 0
Space-Glooble 1
Space-joth 3
Space-UoS 0
Space-WCD
Ash-Awaclus 5
Ash-e 1
Ash-Glooble 0
Ash-joth 2
Ash-UoS 2
Ash-WCD 2
Awaclus-e 1
Awaclus-Glooble 1
Awaclus-joth 3
Awaclus-UoS 2
Awaclus-WCD 2
e-Glooble 0
e-joth 0
e-UoS 1
e-WCD 0
Glooble-joth 1
Glooble-UoS 0
Glooble-WCD 0
joth-UoS 0
joth-WCD 1
UoS-WCD 1
Note that this isn't an independent count, because those constraints can't be said to be derived independently, nor should each constraint violation be equally weighted really, but it ought to be a reasonable first approximation.
Now sorting by number of violations, and filtering by the #1505 constraint:
Space-UoS 0
e-joth 0
Glooble-UoS 0
joth-UoS 0
Ash-e 1
Awaclus-e 1
e-UoS 1
UoS-WCD 1
Ash-joth 2
Ash-UoS 2
Awaclus-UoS 2
Awaclus-joth 3
Ash-Awaclus 5
Conclusions: joth and UoS should perhaps be my top picks, because of the three most plausible scumteams (the three zeros which don't include me), they're on two of the three possible teams each.
This does not address the various hatedness problems being talked about, but I'm offering it up as a framework for examining wagon interactions that might be pre-digested enough for use even after I've flipped.