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[scott_pilgrim]

What?  I'm assuming you lied about draft order if you're the SK...obviously it's a risk, but if you're the SK you're in a really bad position and it's probably a risk you need to take.

I mean it's a difference between the probability of winning as 1 SK vs. 8 town (including two IC's), versus the probability of getting the first order not counterclaimed.  I don't know which has better odds, but I'm saying you might have judged it to be the latter.

[Robz888]

Should be no > in that last post

[Voltaire]

Robz, you need to demonstrate to me that you are town. You are demonstrating to me that you are the SK. Do you see the problem?

This may be coming down to a clash of styles. How do I give you some made up spin about how my actions have been pro-townie rather than SK? I mean there's a fair degree of overlap between the two, anyway. But I just... I can't... there's no really great narrative for why I am town that holds a candle to the actual evidence: my draft order, claim, and lack of conversion.

See, that is the least convincing part of your story. You played D1, you were hyper and excited, not like town!Robz at all, you were lampshading your own scuminess, you basically weren't behaving like I'm used to town!Robz behaving at all.

I mean, see how WW proved to me he was town in NM4 (or was it 5?) just by talking and whatever.

I should also re-read you and see if you not being Slot 9 fits with me thinking you made slips only slot 9 would make, and if that makes any sense.

[Voltaire]

And by "least convincing" I mean it is bad/a point of weakness to point to something that has a crazy number of possible non-town explanations as the BIG REASON why you are town.

[Axxle]

Should be no > in that last post

Was the < intentional?

[Robz888]

Robz, you need to demonstrate to me that you are town. You are demonstrating to me that you are the SK. Do you see the problem?

This may be coming down to a clash of styles. How do I give you some made up spin about how my actions have been pro-townie rather than SK? I mean there's a fair degree of overlap between the two, anyway. But I just... I can't... there's no really great narrative for why I am town that holds a candle to the actual evidence: my draft order, claim, and lack of conversion.

See, that is the least convincing part of your story. You played D1, you were hyper and excited, not like town!Robz at all, you were lampshading your own scuminess, you basically weren't behaving like I'm used to town!Robz behaving at all.

Okay, this is a clash of styles between you and I, then. How close a player hued to his meta on Day 1 is "whatever" to me, by the time we get to Day 3.

[Axxle]

So it's possible Robz as SK went for slot 3 or slot 8 for conversion, but was beaten to it by ash/ADK.  Okay then what does he claim in that situation?  He's in a really bad position, 1 SK vs. 8 town.  So he goes for something bold and claims first drafting order, hoping for no counterclaim by town (and he thinks he has a good chance at no counterclaim, because ash and ADK both got really good slots, so there's a decent chance one of them got first pick).  Then it comes time for massclaim, he wants Axxle to go first to get as much information as possible before he has to claim, but we insist he go before Axxle.  He figures slot 1 is a lot better for scum than for town, we know none of the mafia took it and he hopes the last few townies didn't take it either, and claims vig.

I think that's the SK narrative for Robz.  It's a crazy bold play and he's lucky he didn't get any counterclaims if that's actually what he did.  So just by probability it seems unlikely that Robz is the SK.  However, everything that he has done today is exactly what he would have done as vanilla SK, so it's just really tempting to take from that that he is the SK.

Though now I'm realizing that whole scenario I outlined assumes he's not actually the vig, which means there would only be one death tonight (mail-mi), and he has to hope that we take from that that the SK didn't kill.  So if we only see one death tonight, it's still possible that that narrative is correct, but not guaranteed since the actual SK may choose to not shoot to make us think Robz is the SK.  Whereas if we see two deaths tonight, the narrative must be incorrect and we have to either assume that Robz is town, or that he is actually an SK who had first pick and did not go for a conversion.  I guess it's also possible he lied about the first pick but not about slot 1.


Regardless, we're not lynching Robz today, so who are the other options, Andrew, me, joth, mcmc, maybe Axxle?  Andrew's play this game has felt a little different to me than in other games.  Nothing really sticks out to me about joth or mcmc (which is odd because I usually think mcmc is scummy and then I'm wrong, so maybe worth noting).

Vote: Scott

I prefer him to Andrew today. I mean Robz is scummy but this is just all wrong.

[Voltaire]

I mean, I feel really bad about Axxle too, is that just his playstyle though. Robz why is he town again?

Also, this math is correct, no?

D3 - 9 alive, 1 lynch
N3 - 8 alive, Robz kills mail-mi and SK kills
D4 - 6 alive, 1 lynch
N4 - 5 alive, SK kills 1
D5 - 4 alive, no lynch
N5 - 4 alive, SK kills 1
D6 - 3 alive

So only two mislynches left, right?

[Voltaire]

Axxle, what? I completely followed what Scott was saying.

[Robz888]

Scotty's arugment--that I don't actually have Vig powers and first draft pic--is actually a much better explanation than Voltaire's. It doesn't matter, though, since if there is only one kill tonight, I can prove with total certainty the identity of the SK, and you can even lynch me first if you like.

[Axxle]

I think it's ridiculous to think that Robz would lie about his draft position, and more importantly draft number, and then lie about being a vig. Too many risks.

[Voltaire]

I think it's ridiculous to think that Robz would lie about his draft position, and more importantly draft number, and then lie about being a vig. Too many risks.

And why does that make S_P scum?

[Axxle]

Scotty's arugment--that I don't actually have Vig powers and first draft pic--is actually a much better explanation than Voltaire's. It doesn't matter, though, since if there is only one kill tonight, I can prove with total certainty the identity of the SK, and you can even lynch me first if you like.

Not really? I mean we'd all just go occam's razor on you tomorrow if there's just one kill.

[Axxle]

I think it's ridiculous to think that Robz would lie about his draft position, and more importantly draft number, and then lie about being a vig. Too many risks.

And why does that make S_P scum?

I've felt he's been kinda scum all game. And in this case it feels like he's trying to hard to come up with an alternate theory why robz is scum so he doesn't seem sheepy.

[Voltaire]

Well, 2 mislynches left, 3 chances to win that is.

[scott_pilgrim]

I think it's ridiculous to think that Robz would lie about his draft position, and more importantly draft number, and then lie about being a vig. Too many risks.

I think that's how he has to play if he's in that position.  You think it's more likely Robz is psychic and knows he's going to end up in this position, so he avoids a conversion role so he can WIFOM us all?

[Robz888]

I mean, I feel really bad about Axxle too, is that just his playstyle though. Robz why is he town again?

Voltaire, please listen to me carefully here, I think it well help put my position and my scum-hunting technique in perspective.

Axxle is town because we know for a fact he is the 1-shot Bus Driver, and that he did not get it out of Slot 9 (because sudgy is slot 9). This means he sought the 1-shot Bus Driver from Slot 6.

Is this something the SK does? I say no, absolutely not. That's not really a power that helps the SK. And remember: He used it last night! Doesn't SK Axxle have to hold onto that for a night where he might be in danger? There was no evidence he was in danger last night. In fact, he claimed, putting himself at greater risk.

I think SK Axxle, despite is bad draft position, would have sought some conversion PR, or maybe tried to bank on something good in Slot 9. I was much more concerned Axxle was SK before we learned there was no way for him to be Slot 9.

So even though he is a little scummy in like his statements, whatever, it's dwarfed by all the evidence.

[Axxle]

Well, 2 mislynches left, 3 chances to win that is.

4 chances counting mailmi

[Robz888]

Scotty's arugment--that I don't actually have Vig powers and first draft pic--is actually a much better explanation than Voltaire's. It doesn't matter, though, since if there is only one kill tonight, I can prove with total certainty the identity of the SK, and you can even lynch me first if you like.

Not really? I mean we'd all just go occam's razor on you tomorrow if there's just one kill.

I don't understand what you're saying. If there is one kill tomorrow, either I am lying, or I hit the BP SK.

[Axxle]

Scotty's arugment--that I don't actually have Vig powers and first draft pic--is actually a much better explanation than Voltaire's. It doesn't matter, though, since if there is only one kill tonight, I can prove with total certainty the identity of the SK, and you can even lynch me first if you like.

Not really? I mean we'd all just go occam's razor on you tomorrow if there's just one kill.

I don't understand what you're saying. If there is one kill tomorrow, either I am lying, or I hit the BP SK.

As SK:

If the person you say you're going to target dies tomorrow, and only that person. We're going to assume you're lying and lynch you. You lose.

If the person you say you're going to target *doesn't* die tomorrow, we lynch them. Maybe have to lynch them a second time. But when they flip town, we know you're lying so we lynch you. You lose.

There is no way for you to win if you're faking being a Vig.

[Robz888]

Oh, right. Yeah, exactly. I agree with that.

[Voltaire]

Robz, I think that does make sense about Axxle.

[Voltaire]

Well, 2 mislynches left, 3 chances to win that is.

4 chances counting mailmi

Point. And only 8 candidates, not counting me of course. And there are some players that are markedly less likely (you if Robz's reasoning is right), maybe sudgy? So 4 chances for 6 people, with reads to improve? OK good good good.

Honestly I've gotten kind of detached from this game because I likely won't be in it and then it will essentially be a whole 'nother game I'll be spectating.

[Voltaire]

Scotty's arugment--that I don't actually have Vig powers and first draft pic--is actually a much better explanation than Voltaire's. It doesn't matter, though, since if there is only one kill tonight, I can prove with total certainty the identity of the SK, and you can even lynch me first if you like.

Not really? I mean we'd all just go occam's razor on you tomorrow if there's just one kill.

I don't understand what you're saying. If there is one kill tomorrow, either I am lying, or I hit the BP SK.

As SK:

If the person you say you're going to target dies tomorrow, and only that person. We're going to assume you're lying and lynch you. You lose.

If the person you say you're going to target *doesn't* die tomorrow, we lynch them. Maybe have to lynch them a second time. But when they flip town, we know you're lying so we lynch you. You lose.

There is no way for you to win if you're faking being a Vig.

So Robz is the Vig. I still think he could be SK though. I do want to think about his choice from a "but how did the game go down vs. how the SK wanted it to go down" POV.

[Axxle]

With 4, my initial reaction is:

mail-mi

robz

scott

mcmc? joth? ouf. lylo is going to hurt if it gets down to it.