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[Voltaire]

I mean, do you WANT me to shoot mail-mi? I am a bit on the fence myself. This is basically the last opportunity to kill him, though.

Pretty sure I do.

[Voltaire]

vote: Andrew 3 or 4 votes on him, I think. Which means he might be at L-1, so I'd like a vote-count, please, and no more votes until we know for sure.

[mail-mi]

@mail-mi: why unlynchable?

because i get lynched a lot. And i was in draft position 14, so i took one from the category that seemed least likely that one had been taken from. And i don't ever get shot (1-shot commuter) and the only people that target me at night are town (1-shot PGO) so lynchproof it was.

[Axxle]

vote: Andrew 3 or 4 votes on him, I think. Which means he might be at L-1, so I'd like a vote-count, please, and no more votes until we know for sure.

There was an unofficial vote count, that'd be L-1 if it was accurate.

[Axxle]

@mail-mi: why unlynchable?

because i get lynched a lot. And i was in draft position 14, so i took one from the category that seemed least likely that one had been taken from. And i don't ever get shot (1-shot commuter) and the only people that target me at night are town (1-shot PGO) so lynchproof it was.

If you get lynched one day, why do you think you'd not just get immediately lynched the next day? You're giving scum more time to kill people.

[mail-mi]

about robz: yeah he's probably town. knowing robz, he would have gone for the sk conversion.

[Voltaire]

Axxle, is it a thing for you to be self-aware scummy?

Robz is doing it and I think it contributes to him being scummy, you are doing it and I am ignoring it.

Everyone else comment on this if they have an opinion.

Also town don't lurk. So many of you are lurking.

[mail-mi]

@mail-mi: why unlynchable?

because i get lynched a lot. And i was in draft position 14, so i took one from the category that seemed least likely that one had been taken from. And i don't ever get shot (1-shot commuter) and the only people that target me at night are town (1-shot PGO) so lynchproof it was.

If you get lynched one day, why do you think you'd not just get immediately lynched the next day? You're giving scum more time to kill people.

well see my thought process was: Crap I'm 14. What slot is least likely to get picked? Maybe slot two? well the only one that's really useful to me there is lynchproof, so might as well try right? Porbably won't get it anyway. *receives role PM* OMGOSH I ACTUALLY GOT IT EVEN THOUGH I WAS NUMBER 14 YAY IM A PR!

[Robz888]

SK is probably doomed, so SK is probably lurking.

Mcmc and Scotty often lurk anyway, though. But I think mcmc is more active when he has something to do, and he has lurked the whole game.

I'd say Andrew is a good choice, maybe scotty, maybe Joth. Mcmc and mail-mi a little less likely than those first three. Axxle is likely town, sudgy is certainly tow, Voltaire is absolutely town. Did I miss anyone?

[Voltaire]

Town, please seriously consider, and quite possibly, lynch Robz tomorrow. Please.*

*I am 99% likely to die tonight

[Axxle]

Axxle, is it a thing for you to be self-aware scummy?

Robz is doing it and I think it contributes to him being scummy, you are doing it and I am ignoring it.

Everyone else comment on this if they have an opinion.

Also town don't lurk. So many of you are lurking.

Lampshading your scumminess is a thing that people do. I think Robz had a few early scum games that he did it a lot but I haven't played with him scum in a while. I imagine I do it sometimes, it all depends on the type of town.

Everyone should comment regardless of if they have an opinion or not. It helps even if you don't think it will.

Town totally lurks. It's anti-town but town does it.

[Axxle]

Town, please seriously consider, and quite possibly, lynch Robz tomorrow. Please.*

*I am 99% likely to die tonight

You like that percentage.

[Voltaire]

I mean, none of these situations are actually 100%, so I like to be accurate. 99% of the time.*

*like the time I realized I should have lied about being 1-shot BP

[Robz888]

Town, please seriously consider, and quite possibly, lynch Robz tomorrow. Please.*

*I am 99% likely to die tonight

Town, ignore this, the way dead townies are typically ignored.

[Axxle]

I mean, none of these situations are actually 100%, so I like to be accurate. 99% of the time.*

*like the time I realized I should have lied about being 1-shot BP

I think just the fact that you picked that slot should have the SK sweating a bit.

[Voltaire]

Town, please seriously consider, and quite possibly, lynch Robz tomorrow. Please.*

*I am 99% likely to die tonight

Town, ignore this, the way dead townies are typically ignored.

Robz, you need to demonstrate to me that you are town. You are demonstrating to me that you are the SK. Do you see the problem?

[Voltaire]

Town, please seriously consider, and quite possibly, lynch Robz tomorrow. Please.*

*I am 99% likely to die tonight

Town, ignore this, the way dead townies are typically ignored.

#discredittheIC

[scott_pilgrim]

So it's possible Robz as SK went for slot 3 or slot 8 for conversion, but was beaten to it by ash/ADK.  Okay then what does he claim in that situation?  He's in a really bad position, 1 SK vs. 8 town.  So he goes for something bold and claims first drafting order, hoping for no counterclaim by town (and he thinks he has a good chance at no counterclaim, because ash and ADK both got really good slots, so there's a decent chance one of them got first pick).  Then it comes time for massclaim, he wants Axxle to go first to get as much information as possible before he has to claim, but we insist he go before Axxle.  He figures slot 1 is a lot better for scum than for town, we know none of the mafia took it and he hopes the last few townies didn't take it either, and claims vig.

I think that's the SK narrative for Robz.  It's a crazy bold play and he's lucky he didn't get any counterclaims if that's actually what he did.  So just by probability it seems unlikely that Robz is the SK.  However, everything that he has done today is exactly what he would have done as vanilla SK, so it's just really tempting to take from that that he is the SK.

Though now I'm realizing that whole scenario I outlined assumes he's not actually the vig, which means there would only be one death tonight (mail-mi), and he has to hope that we take from that that the SK didn't kill.  So if we only see one death tonight, it's still possible that that narrative is correct, but not guaranteed since the actual SK may choose to not shoot to make us think Robz is the SK.  Whereas if we see two deaths tonight, the narrative must be incorrect and we have to either assume that Robz is town, or that he is actually an SK who had first pick and did not go for a conversion.  I guess it's also possible he lied about the first pick but not about slot 1.


Regardless, we're not lynching Robz today, so who are the other options, Andrew, me, joth, mcmc, maybe Axxle?  Andrew's play this game has felt a little different to me than in other games.  Nothing really sticks out to me about joth or mcmc (which is odd because I usually think mcmc is scummy and then I'm wrong, so maybe worth noting).

[Robz888]

Town, please seriously consider, and quite possibly, lynch Robz tomorrow. Please.*

*I am 99% likely to die tonight

Town, ignore this, the way dead townies are typically ignored.

Robz, you need to demonstrate to me that you are town. You are demonstrating to me that you are the SK. Do you see the problem?

I don't agree that I am demonstrating that I am the SK. How have I demonstrated that?

[Robz888]

So it's possible Robz as SK went for slot 3 or slot 8 for conversion, but was beaten to it by ash/ADK.

No, it's not.

I claimed my number and draft order BEFORE the massclaim, when it could have produced a contradictory claim. It didn't, because it's true, I got first draft pick. So any analysis that begins... "Maybe Robz was beaten to X..." is wrong, because it is impossible for me to hae been beaten to X.

I am pointing out all the logical fallacies involved in all the arguments that I am the SK. How does this make me likely--at all--to be the SK?

[scott_pilgrim]

What?  I'm assuming you lied about draft order if you're the SK...obviously it's a risk, but if you're the SK you're in a really bad position and it's probably a risk you need to take.

[Robz888]

Robz, you need to demonstrate to me that you are town. You are demonstrating to me that you are the SK. Do you see the problem?

This may be coming down to a clash of styles. How do I give you some made up spin about how my actions have been pro-townie rather than SK? I mean there's a fair degree of overlap between the two, anyway. But I just... I can't... there's no really great narrative for why I am town that holds a candle to the actual evidence: my draft order, claim, and lack of conversion.

[Voltaire]

There were many unclaimed dead players. Your move would be risky, but if successful, put you in a good position.

[AndrewisFTTW]

Sorry guys I still don't have time to catch up yet but I will in a couple hours. I did see that I'm the favorite to get lynched today. I can't really argue anything besides I don't think my play has been weird at all (I saw that Scotty mentioned something about that) besides my reacting to Voltaire's comment, but I only reacted that way because I thought he made another comment beforehand but it was actually Axxle.

That said, I'm not the SK but again, there's not much I can argue against. I'll be back in a couple hours.

[Robz888]

There were many unclaimed dead players. Your move would be risky, but if successful, put you in a good position.

I mean, it wouldn't even put me in a good position, because I would fail to produce the guaranteed shot tonight. If there is no extra shot tonight, i've found the SK< and you can lynch that person and me in either order and win 100%.