Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Rhand]

what about you, Rhand, what's your top 4 scums looking like?

I don’t know at this point. Faust’s handling of me has gotten me to a point where I keep procrastinating catching up in this game.
I’ll come back to it tomorrow, I promise.

Part of me is hoping faust is just cocky scum and that’s why he is like that.

there is no tomorrow. DL is in like 18 hours or something.

10 pm here. Still have half a day tomorrow

[chairs]

Time to consolidate wagons. Past time really, I suppose, but we haven’t gotten anywhere wagony that I can see on anyone except maybe on me 

[scolapasta]

what about you, Rhand, what's your top 4 scums looking like?

I don’t know at this point. Faust’s handling of me has gotten me to a point where I keep procrastinating catching up in this game.
I’ll come back to it tomorrow, I promise.

Part of me is hoping faust is just cocky scum and that’s why he is like that.

there is no tomorrow. DL is in like 18 hours or something.

I think that's tomorrow for the Euro folks.

[Swowl]

what about you, Rhand, what's your top 4 scums looking like?

I don’t know at this point. Faust’s handling of me has gotten me to a point where I keep procrastinating catching up in this game.
I’ll come back to it tomorrow, I promise.

Part of me is hoping faust is just cocky scum and that’s why he is like that.

there is no tomorrow. DL is in like 18 hours or something.

10 pm here. Still have half a day tomorrow

ok cool, wasn't trying to push, just wanted to make sure you knew!

[EFHW]

Responses to Jimmmmm:

I was always ready to explain why I voted Hypercube, but no one really asked.  Basically, it was because he was absent and then because this post felt off to me because all of these points had been made. So it felt like he was looking for things to say without having much to say himself, which would be scum's situation.

I think the way Dylan claimed is towny; with that said I think making people claim Dustbringer or not was (and still is) a good plan given that the threat a scum Dustbringer poses is pretty large. If a scum Dustbringer exists we should make them either start lying now or be accountable for their actions.

The MiX vote was a gut reaction which didn't recur later when I came back to it, so I abandoned that wagon.

The Didds slip was not the one faust said - I don't expect her to know or anticipate people having non-order powers. But the special powers are not published in the OP, so giving house and order is not a fullclaim. Someone who is not a knight would be more likely to make that mistake. And if it is a mistake, why is she lying about having an order? So I think this is a legit slip.

With the pro-Town thing, are you talking about #954? Is there a reason why it's scummy, or is this just a vote to express your disagreement? Why in particular would scum complain about a 3rd party not being pro-Town?

Non-town could try to look towny by protesting anti-town behavior vigorously. I don't know if Eddie's behavior is anti-town because I haven't managed to understand the benefit of the plan, but methinks she doth protest too much.

Quote from: EFHW on June 10, 2020, 07:52:48 am
Why wouldn't a town!neighbor tell us the whole story of what Eddie wanted?

What are you trying to gain from this? Surely if Town neighbours are keeping quiet it's because they have a reason to. Do you think any scum among them would be caught out if they had to open up about it (genuine question)? I doubt that any scum not aligned with Eddie (whether or not he's 3rd party) have given anything away to him they didn't want to.

I realize it's better to let town players make their own decisions about what to reveal, but all the coyness made me think that these aren't all town players. Or maybe I felt left out. I don't think I expected a particular outcome. But I wanted to create some pressure. Town players can take it. Scum players and Eddie might get antsy. I was also concerned because with the exception of scolapasta at 964, people seemed to be taking Eddie and his neighbors all at face value.

And actually, this brings up a good point on the whole claiming house idea.  It would be beneficial for anyone to be the last person standing in their house, as they could recharge spheres freely without risk of theft (barring secondary, role-related methods of theft). So as soon as that knowledge is out there, it could affect how people vote (and how scum kills). So we should not claim to get true reads and opinions out before anyone can start trying to use that knowledge strategically.

ppe several

On the other hand, this is a townslip.

Vote: cayvie

Townslip? It's pretty scummy to be planning to kill players because they are in your house regardless of alignment.

Are you saying that Dylan is scummy for this, or just that it's not a Townslip?

Both

[EFHW]

Jimmmmm- I really appreciate all of the heavy lifting you’re doing in the rereads. It’s really helpful.

How has it helped you?

Because everything is there together in a handy dandy wall post...especially helpful for mobile when control-f rereads are impossible.

Yes, they are helpful. But why is he doing them? I don't remember this level of Day 1 effort from Jimmmmm, like ever.

[EFHW]

huh, interesting.

it feels like wagons have had a tough-ish time forming today. but EFHW in particular has seemed to be almost allergic to wagons, despite widespread suspicion upon her from many players (myself, WCD, faust, jimmmmm, GHS off the top of my head)

I had this thought as well.  It definitely makes my spidey-senses tingle

This is not a meaningful observation. So the same people expressing suspicion are my scum partners? Or other people should be voting for me based on their cases even though the people having the suspicions aren't themselves voting for me (with the exception of Didds)? Furthermore, this is an 18 player game. How many scum partners do you think I would have to have to make reluctance to vote for me be so widespread?

[scolapasta]

No about dibbs.
It’s so clear that the extra power belongs to the order that calling house + order a fullclaim is totally NAI.

I don't know what Dylan's power belonging to the order has to do with anything.

If Dylan is town, then we already have a claim with order power revealed.
It makes the whole “mafia would forget that part with a full claim” idea less likely.

I'm not arguing that the special order power is what Didds ignored as being part of a fullclaim, I'm arguing that she forgot that you can have powers completely unrelated to your order.

You're not looking too good here either.

Care to explain this more? It reads like you're claiming town has more powers than surge powers + order special power. Is that what you're saying?

[EFHW]

huh, interesting.

it feels like wagons have had a tough-ish time forming today. but EFHW in particular has seemed to be almost allergic to wagons, despite widespread suspicion upon her from many players (myself, WCD, faust, jimmmmm, GHS off the top of my head)

I had this thought as well.  It definitely makes my spidey-senses tingle

I don't like how opportunistic this response feels.

[Glooble]

I've had an incredibly busy day at work, but its probably just as well since now that I'm IC scum can hide behind my vote, so just as well not to have one currently.

Anyhow I will catch up and be around at deadline.

[scolapasta]

1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.

2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it P, to be true. P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that not P is true, as if it is determined that not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true.  Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15.  This would only be true if, P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers.  The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think P is.  I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15.  So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.

OK I see your point about what he was trying to say. I don't agree with it and I don't think my continued effort to understand MiX's assumptions here is trivial.

I definitely don't agree with your number 2, in that I don't think you're saying the same thing MiX is saying.

That said, I do think knowing the probability of P (that scum order special powers are all 15) would be useful. While scum may now lie, I'm thinking that we all claim the cost of our special power. I don't think that gives away anything particularly useful?

(I'm, also aware that we probably won't get enough info here in order to build the MiX wagon until at least D2)

[WestCoastDidds]

Jimmmmm- I really appreciate all of the heavy lifting you’re doing in the rereads. It’s really helpful.

How has it helped you?

Because everything is there together in a handy dandy wall post...especially helpful for mobile when control-f rereads are impossible.

Yes, they are helpful. But why is he doing them? I don't remember this level of Day 1 effort from Jimmmmm, like ever.

He said earlier (I’m on my phone so I can’t go find it) that since he is on the complete opposite time zone of the rest of the game that he can’t keep up with the pages of content we generate while he’s asleep, and we’re not on when he’s on, so asking/answering questions isn’t all that helpful, so he’s doing ISOs instead.

I think from an information management perspective, it’s an innovative solution to the size of the game, 

[WestCoastDidds]

EFHW in your response to Jimmm you say
“The Didds slip was not the one faust said - I don't expect her to know or anticipate people having non-order powers. But the special powers are not published in the OP, so giving house and order is not a fullclaim. Someone who is not a knight would be more likely to make that mistake. And if it is a mistake, why is she lying about having an order? So I think this is a legit slip.“

I responded before, But in the interest of clarity....I do not have any powers that are not tied to my order. I have the two listed in the set up, and then a third that is also tied to my order. It is not listed for everyone to read, but It would be the same ability for everyone else In my order presumably because it’s explained that as a ___ I can also ____.

Glooble and someone else (Mix) have said this is true for them as well. You are imagining something that is not there. You might have abilities tied to your order. I do not.

[WestCoastDidds]

huh, interesting.

it feels like wagons have had a tough-ish time forming today. but EFHW in particular has seemed to be almost allergic to wagons, despite widespread suspicion upon her from many players (myself, WCD, faust, jimmmmm, GHS off the top of my head)

I had this thought as well.  It definitely makes my spidey-senses tingle

I don't like how opportunistic this response feels.

Whelp, that makes us even, I guess.

[scolapasta]

EFHW in your response to Jimmm you say
“The Didds slip was not the one faust said - I don't expect her to know or anticipate people having non-order powers. But the special powers are not published in the OP, so giving house and order is not a fullclaim. Someone who is not a knight would be more likely to make that mistake. And if it is a mistake, why is she lying about having an order? So I think this is a legit slip.“

I responded before, But in the interest of clarity....I do not have any powers that are not tied to my order. I have the two listed in the set up, and then a third that is also tied to my order. It is not listed for everyone to read, but It would be the same ability for everyone else In my order presumably because it’s explained that as a ___ I can also ____.

Glooble and someone else (Mix) have said this is true for them as well. You are imagining something that is not there. You might have abilities tied to your order. I do not.

Any chance you could point me to where Mix said that?

FWIW, I'm willing to claim the same - I have powers related to two surges, and then 1 other special order power.

[MiX]

I confirm what Didds said.

Do you want me to show where I claimed that? It was something like I was questioning faust if he was actually saying that, in a way that claimed that I didn't have any.

[Swowl]

1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.

2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it P, to be true. P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that not P is true, as if it is determined that not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true.  Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15.  This would only be true if, P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers.  The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think P is.  I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15.  So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.

OK I see your point about what he was trying to say. I don't agree with it and I don't think my continued effort to understand MiX's assumptions here is trivial.

I definitely don't agree with your number 2, in that I don't think you're saying the same thing MiX is saying.

That said, I do think knowing the probability of P (that scum order special powers are all 15) would be useful. While scum may now lie, I'm thinking that we all claim the cost of our special power. I don't think that gives away anything particularly useful?

(I'm, also aware that we probably won't get enough info here in order to build the MiX wagon until at least D2)

I believe I agree with the part about SP cost claiming... minus the fact that it would tell skum who has the SPs. Maybe we could work this into the claim to Eddie bit?

but what are we basing the concept of "all skum has special powers on?" I could be missing something, but is this just like an assumption or has someone actually claimed to have this info?

[scolapasta]

1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.

2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it P, to be true. P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that not P is true, as if it is determined that not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true.  Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15.  This would only be true if, P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers.  The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think P is.  I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15.  So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.

OK I see your point about what he was trying to say. I don't agree with it and I don't think my continued effort to understand MiX's assumptions here is trivial.

I definitely don't agree with your number 2, in that I don't think you're saying the same thing MiX is saying.

That said, I do think knowing the probability of P (that scum order special powers are all 15) would be useful. While scum may now lie, I'm thinking that we all claim the cost of our special power. I don't think that gives away anything particularly useful?

(I'm, also aware that we probably won't get enough info here in order to build the MiX wagon until at least D2)

I believe I agree with the part about SP cost claiming... minus the fact that it would tell skum who has the SPs. Maybe we could work this into the claim to Eddie bit?

but what are we basing the concept of "all skum has special powers on?" I could be missing something, but is this just like an assumption or has someone actually claimed to have this info?

I did forget about 3rd party, who would also likely choose to lie. But I don't think it reveals anything at all about town:
(from setup)

"1. All players that start out as Town- and Mafia-aligned are Knights Radiant"

"In addition, each Order has access to 1 role power that is unique to their Order."

[Swowl]

1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.

2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it P, to be true. P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that not P is true, as if it is determined that not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true.  Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15.  This would only be true if, P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers.  The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think P is.  I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15.  So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.

OK I see your point about what he was trying to say. I don't agree with it and I don't think my continued effort to understand MiX's assumptions here is trivial.

I definitely don't agree with your number 2, in that I don't think you're saying the same thing MiX is saying.

That said, I do think knowing the probability of P (that scum order special powers are all 15) would be useful. While scum may now lie, I'm thinking that we all claim the cost of our special power. I don't think that gives away anything particularly useful?

(I'm, also aware that we probably won't get enough info here in order to build the MiX wagon until at least D2)

I believe I agree with the part about SP cost claiming... minus the fact that it would tell skum who has the SPs. Maybe we could work this into the claim to Eddie bit?

but what are we basing the concept of "all skum has special powers on?" I could be missing something, but is this just like an assumption or has someone actually claimed to have this info?

I did forget about 3rd party, who would also likely choose to lie. But I don't think it reveals anything at all about town:
(from setup)

"1. All players that start out as Town- and Mafia-aligned are Knights Radiant"

"In addition, each Order has access to 1 role power that is unique to their Order."

yeah I mean I was talking about 3rd party. which as much as some people have argued against... as it is a 18 player RMM... I assume there are some of those.

Thought I guess claiming the cost doesn't hurt? But like what does it gain?

[MiX]

Cost claiming is bad, it outs Orders to scum.

[Swowl]

Like in the end how does it pan out?

Skum lies, or tell the truth... whatever no way of telling.
Town tells the truth.
Now skum knows all and town has to guess who is lying about costs?

I actually change my mind, I don't really see the point in a public claim here.

PPE - yeah, what mix said

[chairs]

Heh. I hit reply to say cost claiming is bad and y’all beat me to it

[Jimmmmm]

Yes, they are helpful. But why is he doing them? I don't remember this level of Day 1 effort from Jimmmmm, like ever.

Not much time this morning, but I'll quickly respond to this.

This is an obvious point that was always going to be made sooner or later. I'm very aware that I have a reputation as a lurker (particularly early), and I don't like that reputation one bit (I also care more about my Mafia reputation since trying to make LynchPool a thing). Every game I start I think, "Let's not lurk this game" but I still fall behind and have trouble catching up. Reading 100 posts at a time just doesn't do it for me. This game I came up with a pretty good plan and have somewhat followed through with it, although I still feel like I'm generally 1-2 days behind.

While I'm definitely trying to win, my biggest motivation is to justify my existence in the game. I believe I'm more than capable of replicating my meta, even posting just enough to avoid a lurker lynch, if avoiding being lynched was my top priority.

[scolapasta]

I confirm what Didds said.

Do you want me to show where I claimed that? It was something like I was questioning faust if he was actually saying that, in a way that claimed that I didn't have any.

OK, found it #836. I did wonder if that's what you were claiming there, since it was phrased as a question "..does anyone else have powers outside the Order?"

So you're confirming now that your only powers are the surge powers plus the special order power?

[scolapasta]

Cost claiming is bad, it outs Orders to scum.

How so?

We already know that all town are in Orders (and scum too). So the only people who do not have orders are 3rd party. They'd probably lie anyway, so all scum would know is people saying costs. The costs by themselves do not out any particular order.

Like in the end how does it pan out?

Skum lies, or tell the truth... whatever no way of telling.
Town tells the truth.
Now skum knows all and town has to guess who is lying about costs?

I actually change my mind, I don't really see the point in a public claim here.

PPE - yeah, what mix said

This maybe a little more. i.e town won't know which costs are real and which are not. But we can assume out of 18 that X are town, so that means X are real. And I do think that could be useful (mostly in trying to prove my case against MiX).

What does scum learn? Well, some of the answers will still be lies (3rd party). But they will know that X (out of Y, where Y is 18 - # of scum) are true. But what will that really tell them? Does it really help them if they know my power costs 5, 10, 30, or 50?

i.e. I don't see what we really risk revealing, while I think we either find evidence for or against MiX).