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Author Topic: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Game Over; Town Wins!  (Read 101204 times)

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faust

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #425 on: February 04, 2014, 04:14:27 pm »

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

No posts at all overnight tells nor everyone seems ok with their vote.

I think this indicates ashersky being town, because I get the feeling from this thread that he's more likely the lynch, so why would he argue against random lynch, which increases his odds of surviving?
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Voltaire

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #426 on: February 04, 2014, 04:18:21 pm »

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

No posts at all overnight tells nor everyone seems ok with their vote.

I think this indicates ashersky being town, because I get the feeling from this thread that he's more likely the lynch, so why would he argue against random lynch, which increases his odds of surviving?

Possible explanations:

1. Because he wants to behave as town would behave
2. It's not at all clear who Walrus is going to pick. At first I thought it was me, now it (might?) be ash, but I can't really tell. Walrus could easily change his mind again.
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #427 on: February 04, 2014, 04:18:50 pm »

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

how so?

I think if we deadline out at a tie, yuma has to randomly roll for the lynch.  Say he rolls me, so we have a mislynch today.  Everyone on wagon gets a cop out for why they mislynched town, and can argue against any wagon analysis that comes up on D2.  If Voltaire is the lynch and turns out to be town, same deal.  Basically, no hammer and a random lynch means no one is "at fault" with the mislynch if it goes that way.

The fact that everyone seems okay with where their vote sits means that scum feels that way, too (unless walrus is scum).
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #428 on: February 04, 2014, 04:19:31 pm »


1. Because he wants to behave as town would behave


This is a bit of a strawman, isn't it?  I mean, you can literally make that argument about literally every person ever in literally every game ever.  Literally.
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #429 on: February 04, 2014, 04:19:55 pm »


1. Because he wants to behave as town would behave


This is a bit of a strawman, isn't it?  I mean, you can literally make that argument about literally every person ever in literally every game ever.  Literally.

All that to say that was a scummily weak statement/argument for you to make.
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Voltaire

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #430 on: February 04, 2014, 04:20:54 pm »


1. Because he wants to behave as town would behave


This is a bit of a strawman, isn't it?  I mean, you can literally make that argument about literally every person ever in literally every game ever.  Literally.

All that to say that was a scummily weak statement/argument for you to make.

That faust hasn't even seemed to consider. As in, faust's original reasoning about you is equally useless/pointless if you go by this reasoning.
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #431 on: February 04, 2014, 04:34:39 pm »


1. Because he wants to behave as town would behave


This is a bit of a strawman, isn't it?  I mean, you can literally make that argument about literally every person ever in literally every game ever.  Literally.

All that to say that was a scummily weak statement/argument for you to make.

That faust hasn't even seemed to consider. As in, faust's original reasoning about you is equally useless/pointless if you go by this reasoning.

I mean, that's fine.  But why wouldn't you just say what I said to discredit faust's point, instead of trying to use a scummy weak argument about me?

If the point of your post was to say "faust's reasoning is flawed/pointless," you should have just said that.  Instead, you tried to say "actually faust, ashersky is probably scummy for x or y" and hoped people inferred that faust was flawed.

That's scummy, I think.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #432 on: February 04, 2014, 04:50:08 pm »

FYI, 2 hours and 40 minutes.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #433 on: February 04, 2014, 05:00:10 pm »

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

how so?

I think if we deadline out at a tie, yuma has to randomly roll for the lynch.  Say he rolls me, so we have a mislynch today.  Everyone on wagon gets a cop out for why they mislynched town, and can argue against any wagon analysis that comes up on D2.  If Voltaire is the lynch and turns out to be town, same deal.  Basically, no hammer and a random lynch means no one is "at fault" with the mislynch if it goes that way.

The fact that everyone seems okay with where their vote sits means that scum feels that way, too (unless walrus is scum).

Everyone but Walrus has picked a side. We'll have to stand by those votes, just the same as if they actually determined the lynch.
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Voltaire

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #434 on: February 04, 2014, 05:32:31 pm »

I mean, that's fine.  But why wouldn't you just say what I said to discredit faust's point, instead of trying to use a scummy weak argument about me?

If the point of your post was to say "faust's reasoning is flawed/pointless," you should have just said that.  Instead, you tried to say "actually faust, ashersky is probably scummy for x or y" and hoped people inferred that faust was flawed.

That's scummy, I think.

Because I'm trying to get you lynched, quite honestly. That's not scummy. It's the only thing I can really do at this point.
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #435 on: February 04, 2014, 05:34:35 pm »

I mean, that's fine.  But why wouldn't you just say what I said to discredit faust's point, instead of trying to use a scummy weak argument about me?

If the point of your post was to say "faust's reasoning is flawed/pointless," you should have just said that.  Instead, you tried to say "actually faust, ashersky is probably scummy for x or y" and hoped people inferred that faust was flawed.

That's scummy, I think.

Because I'm trying to get you lynched, quite honestly. That's not scummy. It's the only thing I can really do at this point.

You can see how it is scummy to me, given I know I'm town even if you don't.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #436 on: February 04, 2014, 05:36:13 pm »

You can see how it is scummy to me, given I know I'm town even if you don't.

Of course I can. Anything either of us thinks about the other I assume everyone else can assume at this point.
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #437 on: February 04, 2014, 05:40:03 pm »

You can see how it is scummy to me, given I know I'm town even if you don't.

Of course I can. Anything either of us thinks about the other I assume everyone else can assume at this point.

If we're both town, this just feels really unfortunate.

And your fault.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #438 on: February 04, 2014, 05:48:06 pm »

If we're both town, this just feels really unfortunate.

And your fault.

If we're both town:

1. How many times do I have to scream "compulsive"?
2. I think I did just fine with a role that has never previously existed on f.ds. YMMV
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #439 on: February 04, 2014, 06:06:40 pm »

If we're both town, this just feels really unfortunate.

And your fault.

If we're both town:

1. How many times do I have to scream "compulsive"?
2. I think I did just fine with a role that has never previously existed on f.ds. YMMV

1.  How many times do I have to scream "ou could have compulsively used it many different ways?"
2.  Compulsive Scum Gladiatior was used on f.ds before, so it has previously existed.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #440 on: February 04, 2014, 06:35:38 pm »

2.  Compulsive Scum Gladiatior was used on f.ds before, so it has previously existed.

I see what you did there.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #441 on: February 04, 2014, 06:44:20 pm »

Vote Count 1.8

Voltaire (4): Eevee, jotheonah, faust, ashersky
ashersky (4): Voltaire, EFHW, xeiron, Archetype

Not Voting (1): Walrus

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline for Day1 is 8 days. Day1 will end on Tuesday February 4 at 7:30 pm forum time. That is in ~ 45 minutes.
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Voltaire

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #442 on: February 04, 2014, 06:49:16 pm »

WALRUS
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #443 on: February 04, 2014, 06:52:25 pm »

As we are nering the deadline, I am getting increasedly sure both Volt and Ash is town.
And because of that, I am feeling pretty indifferent about who we lynch.

A huge fear I have is that you all will lynch me, see me flip town, but assume Voltaire is also town, and he just rides that into the victory sunset as scum.

A huge fear for me is that we lynch one of our duelants today, and the other one tomorrow, and then we are in lylo D3 without giving scum any sweat, or we could even lose with more than one death during a night.

I think we should look closer at the other players tomorrow. Espesially on Jotheonah and Archetype. They are sailling up as my main scum candidates.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #445 on: February 04, 2014, 07:06:44 pm »

If Walrus doesn't show, it's random, right?  It would be slightly better, if one of us feels they would be comfortable switching side, for that person to do so.  That way the lynch is determined by people's opinions, and the group of us together would hopefully be more useful than random chance.
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ashersky

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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #446 on: February 04, 2014, 07:12:28 pm »

If Walrus doesn't show, it's random, right?  It would be slightly better, if one of us feels they would be comfortable switching side, for that person to do so.  That way the lynch is determined by people's opinions, and the group of us together would hopefully be more useful than random chance.

Correct; the lynch will be decided randomly unless someone unvotes or switches votes.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #447 on: February 04, 2014, 07:12:50 pm »

ashersky asked for a popsquiz.

Somewhat scummy: Eevee - jotheonah

slightly scummy: Archetype

Null: xeiron, ashersky, walrus

towny: Voltaire, faust

Definitely town: EFHW
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #448 on: February 04, 2014, 07:13:09 pm »

Alright. We need a flip, and I guess I'm the one who's gonna make that happen.

I apologize for waiting until the last moment. For one work is kicking my ass, it's been one thing after another.

But for two, I really expected to see a lot more activity leading up to now. Every other deadline I've seen in this game has been crazy madness, with people arguing and switching around and wagons polymerizing and depolymerizing like actin filaments. This game has been relatively stagnant by comparison.

Is everybody other than me really so rock solid on their choices? It makes me feel like a weirdo for being indecisive and thinking about it. Maybe it's because this has come down to a 1v1 situation, which is not ordinary for D1 obviously. Maybe it's just the nature of the position I've been put in--having the hammer like this makes me feel like I have more responsiblity/accountability, and maybe others are unlikely to want to expose themselves by joining me in the middle? It really makes me feel as if scum is cozily peering from the sidelines, content in how things are playing out. I see your point joth about sticking to your guns, but really I find such decisiveness on D1 to be quite unusual.

So I think we're dealing with town vs. town here. But I ought to vote, and I'm going for ash--I like those chances better. The more I read, the more Volt reminds me of Game of Thrones Volt. I still find it hard to accept a scum gladiator role in a game of this size, and ash's early claim has bothered me all day.

So vote: ashersky and hope for the best.
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Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1
« Reply #449 on: February 04, 2014, 07:13:42 pm »

Voltaire not picking a different target is really the only thing that's stopping me from voting for ashersky. However, after thinking about it a lot more I'm going to vote for ash.

Here's why:

- Scummy behavior: Since he claimed negative utility I've had a scumread on him. His claim seemed totally truthful, but that doesn't make him Town.

What exactly about ashersky's behaviour does make you think he's scum?

Vote: ashersky. I think he's bluffing.

No; If I had a negative utility, I would keep it hidden and not use it. I see no reason why he said that he's a negative utility.
Additionally, his reaction upon being Gladiatored is flailing scum.

I don't agree; and yes, I also see no reason why he said he's negative utility, no reason for scum as well. Do you believe ash's role claim to be true?

Quote
- Least Likely to Flip Scum: Power-wise, of course. I find it very unlikely that Yuma would make a Gladiator scum in this small of a game. Based on my power, I also think Voltaire is more likely to be Town.

I wonder how your power would indicate Voltaire's alignment. But if you don't want to reveal that, fine. Just let me ask: Why shouldn't there be a scum Gladiator in this game? For all we know, Voltaire could be lying about the exact nature of his role (i.e. it could not be compulsive).

Quote
I consider Gladiator a scum role in a game with more scum. In a 9P game I don't think it'd be included since we're looking at a likely two man scum team. And like faust said, that gives scum at least a 50/50 chance of one of their members dying Day 1. Also, if Volt is scum, I think he'd target someone who isn't a claimed negative utility.

You're missing my point. This line of reasoning only makes sense if Voltaire's role is compulsive. But is it? We don't know that. And why do you think Voltaire wouldn't target negative utility as scum? It makes much more sense for him to target negative utility as sucm than it does as town.

Quote
- Inheritence Business: Goes along with the last one. I'm pretty sure Voltaire is Town and wouldn't use the power. Ash getting Gladiator wouldn't really do anything.
That's not a reason to vote ashersky at all.

It's a reason to vote him over Voltaire.

You're saying it doesn't matter who gets which power, so there's no reason why this would make you prefer an ashersky lynch.
If Voltaire or ashersky were to have the Redirector power, I'd rather have it be Voltaire since I have bigger Townread on him.

But that's not the point! If we lynch Voltaire, ashersky will lose his Redirection power!

Your reasoning is seriously flawed, and I suggest you think it over.
I thought ashersky would get a Gladiator power in addition to his role. I believe ash's claim to be true as Town or Scum. Voltaire trying to get a negative utility as scum makes sense, I suppose. That's really the only thing that makes me question Volt's alignment.

Like xeiron, I'm starting to believe this is T v T, but I still think ashersky has a higher chance of flipping scum, so my vote is still there. Like, I wouldn't be too crushed if Voltaire was lynched over ash, but I prefer ash.
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