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[ashersky]

Does this support or contradict your read on ashersky?  I don't get what you are trying to say here.

Supports. I'm explaining what my ongoing-game-based read was (that he behaved completely differently in the same situation as town in DW2).

I didn't even make a connection to Faust's "best mislynch" comment.  Hadn't thought of it until you mentioned it.

[ashersky]

Man, it's quiet.

Deadline is tomorrow?

[Voltaire]

Deadline is tomorrow?

Yeah. Looks like we're waiting on Walrus as no-one is changing their opinions.

Here's a question for you Volt: I still don't understand why you didn't claim and allow the target to be decided democratically. Using your power in this fashion is akin to a vig or SK, I guess, in that it allows a single player to influence who dies in a serious way. Did you think your judgment was better without collective input?

Missed this direct question at first. I can't honestly know if my judgement was better, I know think I probably should have done something else, but I was making decisions after getting 75% odds of lynching scum correctly wrong in DW2 and that really really shook my scumhunting confidence. Still has, a bit, to be completely honest.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Thanks for answering that Volt. But wouldn't losing your scumhunting confidence make you MORE likely to defer to town, not less?

faust's claim is interesting. To be honest it doesn't seem like very solid evidence for or against either candidate to me, I could see both sides. Maybe there are parallels but they could easily be scum/town/yin/yang -style parallels, or ash could be faking, or you could actually be scum, who knows. The fact that faust is defending ash so vigorously, to the point of an early claim even, without ostensibly knowing his alignment, and in order to corroborate ash's early claim, it all just feels funny to me. On the other hand, EFHW seems a little too sure of herself also, but she didn't claim at least.

That's pending on the flip we get of course.

town!Voltaire: xeiron gets townier a bit, Walrus gets scummier a bit if he hammered
scum!Voltaire: jotheonah gets townier, Walrus gets a lot townier if he hammered, xeiron gets a little scummier
town!ashersky: Eevee get a little less townie, Voltaire gets scummier, Walrus gets scummier if he hammered
scum!ashersky: All on the ashersky wagon get townier (especially EFHW and Voltaire), jotheonah gets scummier

This post also feels weird to me. There's nothing inherently wrong with this kind of reasoning. But here it feels like you're already setting things up to deal with all possible contingencies for tomorrow, possibly planting the seeds for a mislynch. In particular it makes me feel uncomfortable, as I get specifically implicated if I make a bad choice, and there may be two bad choices here.

I didn't realize deadline was sneaking up. I'll have an answer by tomorrow for sure.

[Voltaire]

Thanks for answering that Volt. But wouldn't losing your scumhunting confidence make you MORE likely to defer to town, not less?

No, because three scum successfully got me (subtly, of course) to lynch the one town choice.

I agree that faust's role doesn't translate to his confidence in ash, but do understand it, if that makes sense, because I basically had to do the same thing.

Also, there is nothing wrong with faust listing if/then statements. Players should do/think that all the time.

[ashersky]

Deadline is tomorrow?

Yeah. Looks like we're waiting on Walrus as no-one is changing their opinions.

Not sure if it is good or bad that everyone seems set.

[EFHW]

Does this support or contradict your read on ashersky?  I don't get what you are trying to say here.

Supports. I'm explaining what my ongoing-game-based read was (that he behaved completely differently in the same situation as town in DW2).

I didn't even make a connection to Faust's "best mislynch" comment.  Hadn't thought of it until you mentioned it.

and what do YOU mean here?

[EFHW]

Just noting that both Eevee and Joth reappeared within an hour of my mentioning their absences.  It might not mean anything, but it does suggest lurking (reading not posting).

[jotheonah]

why did I think the deadline was Friday?

[Archetype]

Voltaire not picking a different target is really the only thing that's stopping me from voting for ashersky. However, after thinking about it a lot more I'm going to vote for ash.

Here's why:

- Scummy behavior: Since he claimed negative utility I've had a scumread on him. His claim seemed totally truthful, but that doesn't make him Town.

What exactly about ashersky's behaviour does make you think he's scum?

Vote: ashersky. I think he's bluffing.

No; If I had a negative utility, I would keep it hidden and not use it. I see no reason why he said that he's a negative utility.

Additionally, his reaction upon being Gladiatored is flailing scum.

- Least Likely to Flip Scum: Power-wise, of course. I find it very unlikely that Yuma would make a Gladiator scum in this small of a game. Based on my power, I also think Voltaire is more likely to be Town.

I wonder how your power would indicate Voltaire's alignment. But if you don't want to reveal that, fine. Just let me ask: Why shouldn't there be a scum Gladiator in this game? For all we know, Voltaire could be lying about the exact nature of his role (i.e. it could not be compulsive).

I consider Gladiator a scum role in a game with more scum. In a 9P game I don't think it'd be included since we're looking at a likely two man scum team. And like faust said, that gives scum at least a 50/50 chance of one of their members dying Day 1. Also, if Volt is scum, I think he'd target someone who isn't a claimed negative utility.

- Inheritence Business: Goes along with the last one. I'm pretty sure Voltaire is Town and wouldn't use the power. Ash getting Gladiator wouldn't really do anything.

That's not a reason to vote ashersky at all.

It's a reason to vote him over Voltaire.

You're saying it doesn't matter who gets which power, so there's no reason why this would make you prefer an ashersky lynch.

If Voltaire or ashersky were to have the Redirector power, I'd rather have it be Voltaire since I have bigger Townread on him.

And again, what makes you so sure that Voltaire is town?

All the above should hopefully be sufficient. I've started to think this whole thing is TvT, but if I had to choose one to lynch I'd pick ashesrky. Sorry.

[ashersky]

Does this support or contradict your read on ashersky?  I don't get what you are trying to say here.

Supports. I'm explaining what my ongoing-game-based read was (that he behaved completely differently in the same situation as town in DW2).

I didn't even make a connection to Faust's "best mislynch" comment.  Hadn't thought of it until you mentioned it.

and what do YOU mean here?

I think Voltaire is making the argument that, in DW2 where I am confirmed to have been town, I went hard after faust for making a comment that was basically "we should try to get the best mislynch we can on D1," but in this game, when joth makes the same sort of statement, I did not go after him in the same way, so I must be scum.

I think it's a flawed argument at best.  I'm saying I didn't even see the connection between faust's statement in DW2 and joth's statement in this game until Voltaire made this point.

[ashersky]

Additionally, his reaction upon being Gladiatored is flailing scum.

I generally don't have a problem with your opinion on me vs. Voltaire, even though you are wrong (about me, anyway).

But I do disagree with the quote above.  I think others have specifically commented that I DIDN'T overreact enough.

[ashersky]

A huge fear I have is that you all will lynch me, see me flip town, but assume Voltaire is also town, and he just rides that into the victory sunset as scum.

[jotheonah]

I do not think either of you flipping town lets the other one off the hook.

[ashersky]

I do not think either of you flipping town lets the other one off the hook.

Right, it shouldn't.  I fear it will for Voltaire anyway.

[ashersky]

Need more talky.

[Eevee]

Needs a lynch at this point I think.

[Voltaire]

We even have a talking thread where players are encouraged to go in and talk to their heart’s content.

[yuma]

Vote Count 1.7

Voltaire (4): Eevee, jotheonah, faust, ashersky
ashersky (4): Voltaire, EFHW, xeiron, Archetype

Not Voting (1): Walrus

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline for Day1 is 8 days. Day1 will end on Tuesday February 4 at 7:30 pm forum time.

[ashersky]

We even have a talking thread where players are encouraged to go in and talk to their heart’s content.

Any interest in switching your vote?

I'll switch mine if you switch yours first.

[faust]

Voltaire not picking a different target is really the only thing that's stopping me from voting for ashersky. However, after thinking about it a lot more I'm going to vote for ash.

Here's why:

- Scummy behavior: Since he claimed negative utility I've had a scumread on him. His claim seemed totally truthful, but that doesn't make him Town.

What exactly about ashersky's behaviour does make you think he's scum?

Vote: ashersky. I think he's bluffing.

No; If I had a negative utility, I would keep it hidden and not use it. I see no reason why he said that he's a negative utility.

Additionally, his reaction upon being Gladiatored is flailing scum.

I don't agree; and yes, I also see no reason why he said he's negative utility, no reason for scum as well. Do you believe ash's role claim to be true?

- Least Likely to Flip Scum: Power-wise, of course. I find it very unlikely that Yuma would make a Gladiator scum in this small of a game. Based on my power, I also think Voltaire is more likely to be Town.

I wonder how your power would indicate Voltaire's alignment. But if you don't want to reveal that, fine. Just let me ask: Why shouldn't there be a scum Gladiator in this game? For all we know, Voltaire could be lying about the exact nature of his role (i.e. it could not be compulsive).

I consider Gladiator a scum role in a game with more scum. In a 9P game I don't think it'd be included since we're looking at a likely two man scum team. And like faust said, that gives scum at least a 50/50 chance of one of their members dying Day 1. Also, if Volt is scum, I think he'd target someone who isn't a claimed negative utility.

You're missing my point. This line of reasoning only makes sense if Voltaire's role is compulsive. But is it? We don't know that. And why do you think Voltaire wouldn't target negative utility as scum? It makes much more sense for him to target negative utility as sucm than it does as town.

- Inheritence Business: Goes along with the last one. I'm pretty sure Voltaire is Town and wouldn't use the power. Ash getting Gladiator wouldn't really do anything.

That's not a reason to vote ashersky at all.

It's a reason to vote him over Voltaire.

You're saying it doesn't matter who gets which power, so there's no reason why this would make you prefer an ashersky lynch.

If Voltaire or ashersky were to have the Redirector power, I'd rather have it be Voltaire since I have bigger Townread on him.

But that's not the point! If we lynch Voltaire, ashersky will lose his Redirection power!

Your reasoning is seriously flawed, and I suggest you think it over.

[Voltaire]

Walrus? The deadline is today. If you don't vote, it'll be random.

[ashersky]

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

No posts at all overnight tells nor everyone seems ok with their vote.

[jotheonah]

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

how so?

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Yeah yeah I know, I'm getting to it, busy morning at work.