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[Teproc]

Ok, so before I read through the thread again, I looked at all the wagons that happened day 1 (6 of them reached L-1, if you include Robz twice), and I noticed two players standing out, having voted on 4 of the 6, including the final one, which hit confirmed town.
- chairs/Teproc : obviously can't say much on that.
- mail-mi

Now obviously this isn't damning in and of itself. mail-mi was the hammer on faust, but I think I would have been ready to hammer as well given faust's last post and the deadline looming. Still, it definitely made we pay extra attention to his voting behavior.

Brushing aside his first three votes (two RVS, one against chairs/Teproc about theory talk), here is his record :

A reads post cuz I'm on a bus and heck why not.
[...]
3. Robz888--vote: robz has like 1 post.

You seem so... different. Less jokey, which I associate with your town self. Maybe it's because it's your first time being scum? Yeah, still fine with wagon. In fact, vote: walrus

[...]
Faust... I could go for Faust. Better than Robz, IMO. Vote: Faust.

Voltaire comes out of that exchange much scummier than Yuma, and Faust probably isn't going through, so vote: Voltaire.

However, I am also okay with keeping on volt. So I'll stay there, but intent to hammer if someone else switches.

Why not switch now and then let someone else hammer?

Cuz I wanna hammer! vote: faust

Okay, so let's see how these hold up :
#88 : First vote on the first Robz wagon. Seems fair, Robz had been completely absent by that point.

#157 : Third vote on the Walrus wagon. This one seems fair as well. He has a read on Walrus that he is behaving differently, so it definitely makes sense to jump on the wagon here.

#306 : Second vote on faust at the time, just after Walrus put Robz to L-1 again. In this post, he says that Walrus is behaving more normally (the Joker gif I think) and he has a null read on Robz. This one is a little more problematic because there's just no reasoning for the vote. Granted, yuma had made his case against faust a couple posts ago, but still, mail-mi doesn't look great here.

#423: Third vote on the Voltaire wagon. No reasoning again, except that Voltaire "looks scummy" in his exchange with yuma.

Here's the reason he gives when pressed :

Voltaire comes out of that exchange much scummier than Yuma, and Faust probably isn't going through, so vote: Voltaire.

Why. Please give a reason.

Mostly a feeling from skimming it over. I am currently in school.

Also, tou have a town read on me. That's not normal.

Not exactly an air-tight case.

#498 : Hammer on faust. Again, no particular reasoning, which can be attributed to the deadline looming and the fact that Walrus had also expressed his willingness to hammer.

Now I mentioned that mail-mi was on 4 of the 6 wagons. Well actually, he seemed pretty close to hammer chairs/Teproc when he was at L-1 here :

Ummm... Intent to hammer, I guess?

In fact, had yuma not specifically asked for people not to hammer without announcing it first, I might very well not have been in this game, and what kind of world would that have been ? 

So mail-mi was in on ALL the wagons Day 1. You could argue that he wasn't on the second Robz wagon, but it did not last very long, and it seemed like town was not ready to lynch Robz, since he had survived L-1 effortlessly earlier.

Not only that, but, aside from the first two votes quoted here, here is a list of wagons mail-mi is ready to join at #349 (during the chairs/Teproc wagon) :

Ya know what, other than the Robz wagon a little bit, I'm pretty much good with all the wagons right now. Order of preference;

Faust
Chairs
Walrus
(Robz)

Notice that Voltaire isn't on there, yet mail-mi eagerly joined in against him at #423.

The fact that he hammered a VT wouldn't be a big deal normally, given the circumstances discussed above. However, this looks to me like a textbook exemple of scum pretty efficiently lurking and getting on anything that even resembles a wagon, and finally hammering when it's obvious that it can't be used against him.

vote: mail-mi

P.S : Sorry for the huge wall of text, I tried to make it as concise as possible by shortening a few quotes, but that clearly wasn't enough.

[Teproc]

As far as my status goes, I definitely don't think I should be considered confirmed town or anything. I wouldn't necessarily read too much into chairs self-voting, it seemed like he was frustrated by the game and his inability to fully participate in it more than anything else.

[yuma]

vote: mail-mi

P.S : Sorry for the huge wall of text, I tried to make it as concise as possible by shortening a few quotes, but that clearly wasn't enough.

This is good solid work, and the size of it is fine, very readable.

However, my only issue with it is that it is mail-mi you are talking about. You very well could be right about him. But everything you listed in the post above is stuff that I think we generally see from mail-mi when he is town. You said you had only read up to MXVI... mail-mi hadn't joined the community at that point, but I think others would agree with me that what we are seeing from mail-mi, while perhaps red flags from another player are just blank flags for mail-mi.

This doesn't necessarily mean we shouldn't lynch him, but I for one am generally more cautious about lynching mail-mi for perceived scummy play because of so many mislynches we have had of him in the past. Combine that with that when we have found mail-mi to be scum there were other signs that were much more glaring... although mail-mi has consistently improved his scum game in the last few games.

So I am keeping mail-mi in the back of my mind, but right now, until I see something more convincing I don't think I will be going for a mail-mi lynch because ultimately it becomes a tossup...

[yuma]

6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 2 Mafia Goons - claiming here is bad. We get no information aside from the JK becoming an IC.

5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker - if this is the situation we would only want the cop to claim, as the roleblocker would still be alive we wouldn't be able to do follow the cop, but we would potentially get 2 confirmed townies (Cop and who he investigated as long as that player wasn't Robz). We do not want the Doc to claim here at all. Doing so is bad because if we can get the roleblocker lynched we can then do follow the cop.

5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons - Here we would get 2 ICs (the BP--the BP shouldn't claim if they used their bulletproof or not and the Tracker) From the tracker we get half a result. If the person they tracked did nothing then it means they are less likely to be mafia, but not guaranteed...

5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker - Here we get two ICs... and a semi-result as the player jailkept is less likely to be mafia.

6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 2 Mafia Goons - here we could potentially get two ICs as long as the Cop didn't investigate Robz. There is no doc to help out here so the cop would die that night, but we would reduce our lynch pool by two today and by one tomorrow.

5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons - Again doc shouldn't claim, nor should the tracker claim a result on following someone who targeted anyone that wasn't robz--cause that player is the doc.


I think sometimes we are too hesitant about claiming. We could wait until tomorrow to claim, that is generally considered the safer bet. But if we mislynch tonight and mafia gets a lynch then we are in lylo and a claim in that situation can be counter claimed by mafia for a 50% chance of winning and the game basically becomes a tossup... But claims today aren't likely to be counter claimed because a counter claim today results in an auto lynch tomorrow. So I think I like claiming today over claiming tomorrow when a counterclaim can't be accomplished because of mylo... of course this is assuming the worst in that we won't get a correct lynch or a NK save during the night...

so maybe we should think about claiming today?

I think the best setup for claiming day2 is 1. the BP townie and the Tracker. 2. Followed by Cop/Doctor. 3. Followed by BP townie and Jailkeeper. 4. Followed by 1 Cop. 5. Followed by Doc/Tracker Followed by 6. 1 jailkeeper.

Of course anyone with a PR doesn't know which of the two setups are out there. As a result I think if we decide we should claim the BP townie or Cop should claim (note that there can't be both a BP townie or a Cop). I think jailkeeper should be the last to claim if claiming at all. I don't think the jailkeeper should claim if a BP townie doesn't claim first...

Again this is all just me talking to myself... I originally posted this as a PM to myself but thought I would share it so we can at least mull it over and see what other people think.

[yuma]

Didn't get the top of the post above from my PM... should say "here are some musings I am going through in regard to PRs and claiming. At this point I am not necessarily advocating anything, but think we should at least consider it and try and find what is most optimal for us to do at this point. There are six possible setups..."

[Voltaire]

I definitely think claiming is probably the right move. I want to double-check what yuma said - nobody do anything quite yet. (I probably won't have time to check thoroughly until tomorrow)

[yuma]

I definitely think claiming is probably the right move. I want to double-check what yuma said - nobody do anything quite yet. (I probably won't have time to check thoroughly until tomorrow)

Yes we should give this at least a day or so of thought, so no one jump into claiming or anything... let's give this the due diligence that it deserves. I still want to think about it more as well...

[Teproc]

Well, I have skimmed all the way through XVI, but the last one I thoroughly read was XII (and some parts of XI). You're right that mail-mi hasn't come up in any of the games I've read, so I don't have any kind of meta info on him.

If this is usually how he plays... well I don't like it, for one. It reminds me of Morgrim in the games I have read, where everyone basically had to act as if L-2 = L-1 because Morgrim could hammer at any moment, but nobody dared lynch him because he always seemed to flip town (in fact I don't think I've seen scum Morgrim yet).
I still need an answer from mail-mi on this, especiallyabout not including Voltaire in his list of possible lynches, and on the lack of reasoning behind a lot of his votes. Shrugging it off seems anti-town to me, even if that's his meta. Does he also vote for every bandwagon on day 2 usually ? Because that could become dangerous if we get into mylo or lylo territory. In any case, mail-mi is going to need a better defense than this to make me move my vote at this point.

Re: claiming :
First off, isn't the One-Shot Bulletproof a passive ability ? In which case the OSB has definitely not "used" it since he wasn't targeted last night. Mybae I'm misunderstanding it, but it seems like quite a weak role if you have to know which night to use it.

I don't like claiming, but that's probably because I enjoy the social aspect of the game much more than the roles.
You make a good case for it (in certain setups), but I definitely want to hear about this from everyone because I don't feel confident at all in determining wether claiming is a good option or not.

[mail-mi]

Well, I rarely have good reads D1, and I'm a student, so if I see a good case I'm gonna vote and not do work cuz time constraints and I'm not gonna do work to come up with the same thing.

Oh, and volt wasn't on my list cuz he was at only 0 or maybe one vote then.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Haha see--newcomers think mail-mi is suspicious! Which may be because we're unfamiliar with his playstyle. OR MAYBE we have a fresh set of eyes that can peer through the meta and see true intentions, like a perceptive dog or something.

I'm not so sure about claiming...my knee-jerk reaction is no, but maybe that's just because that seems to be the f.ds mores. Let me at least play devil's advocate for a second:

--If a PR gets run up to L-1, couldn't he claim at that point? And yes yes, I know, derphammers, deadlines, etc., but still.

--If a BP claims, that basically invalidates his power, as now he will no longer be targeted.

--Wouldn't a Tracker or Cop simply come forward if they felt they had a result they felt they should share?

--Not as sure about Doctor or JK. They would be more likely to be shot immediately. But with another PR, they'd want to know about it I guess. So maybe that's a point for claiming.

[Voltaire]

The purpose of claiming is not so much their results/power, it's to make them Named Townies and POE scum. That's the spirit behind it. And like yuma points out, we could end up in lylo tomorrow where scum could highly consider fakeclaiming or counterclaiming a PR because it could win them the game, so the time to claim is likely now.*

*again, I want to think through all the versions of this setup and check yuma's suggest claiming order. I have no reason to think he's trying to mislead us, I just want to make sure we're not missing anything

[EFHW]

I'd be behind a BP townie claiming, and see an argument for the cop claiming (assuming they didn't investigate Robz).  I don't like a roleblocker having information about other PR's, so I'm leaning against other claims at the moment.  Will think about it some more.

PPE Walrus:  I think having a bulletproof IC is pretty nice - remember faust wanted that?  Especially Day 2 when we have lots of interactions to look at.  I think teproc is right about the power being passive, so we know they still have it.  From the OP: "The 1-shot Bulletproof Townie's bulletproof ability is a static ability, and thus cannot be roleblocked."

Also, a cop with a "town" result wouldn't normally come forward yet.

Doctor or JK would get one more night of using their power before being nk'd, but could maybe be roleblocked so even that would be wasted. 

[Teproc]

Well, I rarely have good reads D1, and I'm a student, so if I see a good case I'm gonna vote and not do work cuz time constraints and I'm not gonna do work to come up with the same thing.

Oh, and volt wasn't on my list cuz he was at only 0 or maybe one vote then.

...

That's exactly what I find suspicious about it. It means you had no particularly scummy read on Voltaire, yet were ready to jump on the wagon anyway. Being ready to lynch anyone for any reason is anti-town, plain and simple. I don't buy the excuse that you don't have time : it doesn't take time to just express an opinion in clear terms. Being vague about what you find scummy is exactly how scum wants to do it, because it can then switch to someone else more likely to be lynched for opposite reasons, and get away with it.

I need to do some reading on mail-mi's town and scum games I guess, but I'm puzzled as to how such blatantly scummy behavior seems to get a pass. Maybe because it's too obvious ? But that doesn't work if he knows that he can get away with it given his meta.

[EFHW]

@teproc. Are you suggesting mail-mi should be policy lynched?  I ask b/c the thought has occurred to me as better for town, but seems harsh.  When he does try to change his meta he gets tons of suspicion at this point.

[Teproc]

No I don't think policy lynching is good for town. We're trying to win this game, we shouldn't worry about future games. I mean, maybe on day 1 if you're getting close to the deadline but I'm certainly not suggesting this here.

I've gone back and looked at a few recent games (only looked at mail-mi's posts) and I can see where you guys are coming from. I don't think my case is as strong as I thought it was because of that, but I'm still not entirely convinced either. In Harry Potter mafia, he played differently as mafia, yes... and that got him lynched, as far as I can tell. He could be going back to his usual, less noticeable playstyle for that reason.

Also, I think his voting pattern wasn't as scummy in his town games : he did have a tendency to get on bandwagons, but not ALL of them, like he did here on day 1.

My vote stays here for now at the very least. I don't think Voltaire's reaction to Robz's (is that correct ?) flip is particularly scummy... partly because I had a similar one.

[Eevee]

I definitely agree with Teproc that mafia deserves was scrutiny for that INCREDIBLE scummy voting history. Like, yes, he has a meta of being erratic as town as well, but we can't just absolve him of all the responsibility for his votes because of that. Mailmi, was there any lynch yesterday you werent comfortable? If you are town, dont you realize how easy that makes it for scum - they have your vote on all their mislynch wagons, almost by default.

[mail-mi]

I definitely agree with Teproc that mafia deserves was scrutiny for that INCREDIBLE scummy voting history. Like, yes, he has a meta of being erratic as town as well, but we can't just absolve him of all the responsibility for his votes because of that. Mailmi, was there any lynch yesterday you werent comfortable? If you are town, dont you realize how easy that makes it for scum - they have your vote on all their mislynch wagons, almost by default.

Robz.

vote: Eevee how did you know they were all mislynches?

[Voltaire]

Eevee is clearly talking about generic mislynches, mail-mi. Also, there were >2 wagons yesterday, so by definition at least one was a mislynch.

[mail-mi]

Eevee is clearly talking about generic mislynches, mail-mi. Also, there were >2 wagons yesterday, so by definition at least one was a mislynch.

Okay, yeah, I've reread his post about 5 times now, and unvote. it was worded confusingly.

[Teproc]

Looking at claims, one that seems pretty good for us is if there's a Tracker.
- it doesn't give too much info to Mafia, since they don't know if the other PR is a OSBPT or a Doctor. Their NK becomes kinda difficult, because they shouldn't be shooting the Tracker if there's a Doctor, but then they might hit an OSBPT. And even if they do, they can't be 100% sure that the kill wasn't prevented by a crazy risky Doctor. So basically we get an IC that might very well survive the night.
- it lets us know that there's no Roleblocker, which is always something.
- Tracker is not good for Mafia to fakeclaim I think. It forces Jailkeeper/Cop/Tracker to counterclaim, but then they get lynched the next day at the very least.

Curious to know what people think about this.

[Voltaire]

I'm working on my re-read/claiming catch-up right now, but saw this post. Yes, I agree a tracker claim is probably good. They should know if they have caught scum if they saw someone target Robz last night, as it can't be the doctor since Robz died. In this situation, the tracker should claim ASAP.  If there is a BPT, we know they have not used their 1-shot because there was a kill last night. So the BPT basically would be guaranteed to live to the end of the game if they claim.

I am assuming we do not have a Tracker with a guilty result, though, since nobody has claimed Tracker yet. A tracker with a "no result" is something, but it could be misleading. I can't think of a reason not to share that result, though. The overall benefits of "follow the tracker," so to speak, are good like you said. Is there something I'm missing? If scum fakeclaims tracker when there is none the cop or jailkeeper know they're lying.

Also, it seems a BPT should claim no matter what, as they're guaranteed to live. So what are the risks here of scum fakeclaiming BPT and there isn't one - well, the cop and/or doctor know immediately that scum is lying. So I think the BP townie should claim.

I still have to work through the other scenarios.

[Teproc]

I don't think the BPT should claim in the Tracker scenario, because of the situation I described above. If the BPT claims, Mafia just shoots the Tracker because they know there's no Doctor, and the BPT basically becomes a VT. Confirmed town, sure, but we go into day 3 with no PR.

I don't think the Tracker should say if he has no result either for a similar reason. If he gets no result on a VT, Mafia can eliminate the tracked VT from their pool of possible Doctors.

[Voltaire]

I don't think the BPT should claim in the Tracker scenario, because of the situation I described above. If the BPT claims, Mafia just shoots the Tracker because they know there's no Doctor, and the BPT basically becomes a VT. Confirmed town, sure, but we go into day 3 with no PR.

I don't think the Tracker should say if he has no result either for a similar reason. If he gets no result on a VT, Mafia can eliminate the tracked VT from their pool of possible Doctors.

Super-good points. I agree with these situations. BPT can just claim if we run them up to L-1.

I think a soft deadline for today is going to be huge, in many of these situations.

[Eevee]

i should take the time to look at my uneasy feelings of walrus in more depth / try to formulate something I could even explain to others.

[Teproc]

Ok, so looking at the Jailkeeper scenarios, which are :
3 VTs, 1 JK & 1 BPT vs 1 Goon & 1 Roleblocker
4 VTS & 1 JK vs 2 Goons

If JK claims :
- Mafia now has perfect info about the setup. JK definitely gets NKed immediately if there's a Rolecop, but even if it's 2 Goons he probably dies. So he's only an IC for a turn.
- Mafia can't really fakeclaim JK themselves. Same situation as for Tracker actually, at best they're lynched Day 3.
- If there's an BPT, he could claim or not depending on your position on IC vs BPT (see: Day 1 theory talk). I think it's better not to claim, but I'm not sure at all.

Not as good as the Tracker situation, but might be worth it.