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[Voltaire]

Fascinating exercise, Teproc. I draw different conclusions, but good line of thought.

I guess I should stop being so nervous about who I chose, since 3 choices are correct.

I think lio's exercise (flavor catch) about e is probably from town. No lynching lio for me today. So if I'm doing that, probably vote: Robz as lio's Teproc line of thinking seems fine, and the Vengeful article really does talk about not claiming. But I could see Ichi being scum, just not terribly likely. mail-mi probably scum too. Would vote for him. Who does that leave...um...yuma! Yeah, deal with him later, like usual. Cool.

[Voltaire]

I wish I had more time, less work and a less upset stomach. Too much happening for me to actually do something productive here today. On the bright side I have the day off tomorrow since I had to work today. I really hope I won't be feeling as beat as I did yesterday.

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.

Well, if you hide scum won't target you 'cause it's a missed kill. Scum will probably take out myself or e, since they need to kill an IC. So...maybe yeah, go for the suicide death? That would be two NKs, but probably gets us another scum lynch. But this is a hypothetical where we've lynched scum...so yeah, my input is try to die.

Ultimately it's your call.

[Teproc]

Voting Robz ? You weren't kidding about drawing different conclusions then.

I understand that scum is also likely to distance themselves from the faust lynch, hoping it happens without their help, and obviously some of them did that, but Robz's case on 2.7 definitely distracted from faust, so it reads pretty townie to me in those circumstances.

[Teproc]

Well, I say "obviously some of them did that", but that's not true if the scum team is Ichimaru/lio/yuma.

[liopoil]

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.

Yes actually, I think you should do this but only if we lynch scum today.  even if you hide behind town, it gets rid of a suspect for us, while scum would otherwise kill one of voltaire/e.

So once we've decided who we're lynching, pick your top scumread besides who we lynch, and say that you are going to be hiding behind them should our lynch flip scum.

note you really don't need the town's consent to do this, it's totally up to you. we can't stop you even if we think it's a bad idea.

if we lynch town I think you probably shouldn't hide, because if there are two deaths tonight we lose.

[yuma]

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.

I might argue that potentially not hiding at this point might be the safest bet if you are indeed the hider (of course leaving it up in the air for WIFOM for mafia). It is the middle of the road strategy, doesn't out scum, but also doesn't result in two dead townies, undoing any advantage that we might get today from lynching correctly. But as I said it shouldn't be decided upon, because if mafia knows that you aren't they will just take you out... but then that puts us in a situation of you hiding behind an unknown--risking getting double killed and getting killed by mafia with no information to us--so... I don't know anymore.

[Teproc]

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.

Yes actually, I think you should do this but only if we lynch scum today.  even if you hide behind town, it gets rid of a suspect for us, while scum would otherwise kill one of voltaire/e.

So once we've decided who we're lynching, pick your top scumread besides who we lynch, and say that you are going to be hiding behind them should our lynch flip scum.

note you really don't need the town's consent to do this, it's totally up to you. we can't stop you even if we think it's a bad idea.

if we lynch town I think you probably shouldn't hide, because if there are two deaths tonight we lose.

If his scumread is wrong, we lose, right ? Seems like a solid plan.

[Lekkit]

I wish I had more time, less work and a less upset stomach. Too much happening for me to actually do something productive here today. On the bright side I have the day off tomorrow since I had to work today. I really hope I won't be feeling as beat as I did yesterday.

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.

Well, if you hide scum won't target you 'cause it's a missed kill. Scum will probably take out myself or e, since they need to kill an IC. So...maybe yeah, go for the suicide death? That would be two NKs, but probably gets us another scum lynch. But this is a hypothetical where we've lynched scum...so yeah, my input is try to die.

Ultimately it's your call.

The thing is, if I just go for someone, you won't know who it is. I have to somehow announce it. If I announce town, I guess they would kill that person and me in the process.

[liopoil]

my advice, more succintly:

- Tell us who you will hide behind if we lynch scum.
- Don't hide if we lynch town.
- Don't tell us that you're taking my second point of advice.

It's not too terrible if lekkit gets NKed though - it gives us two full ICs, and in any case one of our semi-ICs (e/volt) was going to die anyway.

[Teproc]

I guess we don't lose because we lynched scum, but still, that makes it VERY easy for scum to get two nightkills. I think not hiding/WIFOMing is the best option.

[Lekkit]

And I obviously won't hide if we lynch town. That would be pretty stupid.

Also I know that in the end it's kind of up to me, but I still think other people's opinions and arguments is what gives us information in the end.

[liopoil]

they can only get two NKs in the case that his scumread is wrong. And even in that case, there are confirming 2 ICs and killing one of our prime suspects for us.

[Teproc]

I mean, even if Lekkit doesn't hide, I think scum is more likely to target Voltaire or e, keeping the possibility that Lekkit is fakeclaiming. If they kill Lekkit, Voltaire and e become actual ICs.

[liopoil]

I mean, even if Lekkit doesn't hide, I think scum is more likely to target Voltaire or e, keeping the possibility that Lekkit is fakeclaiming. If they kill Lekkit, Voltaire and e become actual ICs.

right, so he should hide if we lynch scum.

[yuma]

someone needs to do the same for teproc that he did for us:

so 807 to 906:

first post is really the only one that is important I am thinking:

Hmmm. This is not great for me, because I don't think faust is scum and I really don't think ash is scum.

I looked at the setup recently, and if I remember correctly, Vengeful has  50% chance to happen if one K is rolled, and there will always be at least one Vengeful if more than one K is rolled.

Vengeful is probably the go to scum fakeclaim but... I mean, it's a pretty likely role to exist, and I do think his timing makes sense here. I wouldn't have claimed at that point myself, but it makes sense to help narrow the lynch down.

Basically, I think his claim doesn't change anything to his likelihood of being town/scum. But I don't want to lynch him because I believe ash to be town, and I'm not confident either way as to faust's alignment.

similar response as Robz gave in regard to vengeful being the "go to fake claim" - note that teproc calls robz having the towniest approach when he did hte summary...

I think teproc is really the only person who thought faust (and ash as well) was pretty townie throughout and was very adamant that he didn't like the lynch. What do we think of this? I have had experiences on both ends of the boat on this as town--in regard to faust day1 of toy story--and as SK--in regard to voltgloss on day1 of wibbely wobbly... I think I lean scummy, but this is probably because I still have a scummy read on teproc based off day2 stuff, so I need to look at this and make sure I am not being biased, as strong biases have gotten me in trouble lately as town.

on another note:
I remember a while back someone saying that Robz's "plan to make faust stumble" as teproc puts it was scummy--I thought that it was teproc, but haven't been able to find it.... ah it was 2.7 and teproc later says that he thought it was a townie thing to do, so this is quite consistent.

[yuma]

let's not let this conversation distract from the good other conversation we were having:

that said, I think an idea is for lekkit to do this:

if we lynch scum today he does 1 of 3.

1. doesn't hide
2. hides behind his top scumread (which he announces)
3. hides behind his top townread (which he doesn't announce)

there is the wifom. there is the risk of his top scumread being town and mafia gets the double kill, but they won't know if he is going to do that or not... or he hides behind scum and gets killed w/o us knowing about it, but at least then we have 2 people that he could have hid behind.

[Teproc]

Huh ? Wait, I need to think about this.

Ok so we lynched scum. Yay !, This leaves us with 6 town, 2 mafia (assuming no SK).

- If Lekkit doesn't hide, scum kills Voltaire/2.7. That's 5/2, and non-IC town is looking at a 50% chance of lynching correctly (2 out of 4). If we mislynch then, that puts us in lylo.
- If Lekkit hides behind his top scum read and is right, we then lynch that guy and find ourselves at 3/1 with no ICs, in mylo.
- If Lekkit hides behind his top scum read and is wrong, we're at 4/2 with 2 ICs, which is a 66% chance of lynching correctly for non-IC town, but we're in mylo.

Is this all correct ? I mean, the second option is tempting and the third one ain't so bad, but the first one is safer basically.

PPE : 2 unread.

[yuma]

- If Lekkit doesn't hide, scum kills Voltaire/2.7. That's 5/2, and non-IC town is looking at a 50% chance of lynching correctly (2 out of 4). If we mislynch then, that puts us in lylo.

If lekkit doesn't hide and scum knows he isn't going to hide they don't target 2.7/voltaire. They target lekkit to get rid of the PR and the potential of him outing them--or making other ICs--later in the game... so he needs to have the possibility of hiding for WIFOM.

[Teproc]

I don't think I agree, but that's a valid point I guess. My thinking was that Lekkit won't have any other opportunity to use his PR (too risky) at that point, but that's not true if we lynch scum again since we would be at 5/1, and scum might fear that and kill Lekkit.

Which means the first situation is even more appealing I think. Leaning towards Lekkit not hiding, without explicitly saying so, then.

[Voltaire]

I'd like to put this up for discussion. If we lynch scum today, should I go for the suicide hiding? I think it might be worth it since we are then left with only 1 mafia. And it would confirm my claim. The problem is that I don't really have very strong scum reads this game and hiding behind town and getting double killed would be really bad.

Yes actually, I think you should do this but only if we lynch scum today.  even if you hide behind town, it gets rid of a suspect for us, while scum would otherwise kill one of voltaire/e.

So once we've decided who we're lynching, pick your top scumread besides who we lynch, and say that you are going to be hiding behind them should our lynch flip scum.

note you really don't need the town's consent to do this, it's totally up to you. we can't stop you even if we think it's a bad idea.

if we lynch town I think you probably shouldn't hide, because if there are two deaths tonight we lose.

If his scumread is wrong, we lose, right ? Seems like a solid plan.

If we lynch town. You are never this negative. I truly now think you're scum based on gut stuff. I just don't lynch purely off gut.

[Voltaire]

So...we've stalled. I'd say this means scum is fine with who we're lynching, but we're not lynching anyone.

[yuma]

So...we've stalled. I'd say this means scum is fine with who we're lynching, but we're not lynching anyone.

we have a bit... i think part of that is that the people who have had a chance to say stuff have said it, while there is still a few people (me for example) who haven't had a chance to put down full thoughts. the weekend will be a good chance for me to get everything i need done i think.

deadline is thursday so i am not overly concerned about a stall right now, things will pick back up soon i imagine.

[yuma]

One thing I can say now is that I am a bit concerned about all of the "yuma: null" reads floating around right now.

Looking back: liopoil, teproc, ichimaru all put me as specifically null while mail-mi said "hasn't done anything to make me suspicious, but it's yuma so..." and robz said: "Yuma has gotten absolutely zero pressure, which is actually very scummy. He's had a much smaller presence than usual too, ostensibly due to VLA."

The reason I am concerned about this is I see potential for scum trying to set me up as the mislynch for the win tomorrow (obviously if they get a mislynch through today).

The problem with this is that everyone is doing it--more or less--and as a result I don't know if I can separate scum from town doing it. Part of this is that I think everyone is kinda following our quasi-IC's (voltaire) thought process of "null on yuma, let's deal with him tomorrow" line of thought....

But it does make me very wary and I am going to ask that people actually take a stance on me... It doesn't have to be a strong stance, but actually give an opinion instead of just stating null...

[yuma]

also can someone summarize the whole liopoil thing in regard to 2.7's flavor for me. I missed that in real time and kinda glossed over it, but it appears that some seem to think it has real implications. I would greatly appreciate a summary.

[Teproc]

I mean, I have a null read on you because you're hard to read. Ok, the truth of it is that I don't think your actions actually speak either way to your alignment, but I've had a bad gut feeling on you since mid-day 2. It's not much so I haven't pushed it and I don't want to push it now either, but since you're asking, there you go.