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Author Topic: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Mafia Wins  (Read 186770 times)

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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1400 on: July 31, 2013, 12:36:37 pm »

TA is being extremely pro-town right now. Extremely.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1401 on: July 31, 2013, 12:41:43 pm »

Going back to my case versus Ash's case:

A large part of my case on Ash was based on interactions with Nkirbit. Looking back, there's a definite connection between Nkirbit and AShersky. Nkirbit chose to not push the Ashersky wagon when it was going, but to redirect elsewhere and to hunt for scum on Ashersky's wagon. This was an attempt to discredit the wagon, and to get it to fall apart, I believe. Regardless, though, we know that Nkirbit chose to not find Ashersky scummy when he had four other people voting for him. Could be an attempt to get town cred, could be an attempt to cover for a partner. I lean the second.

Ashersky's case is mostly built on the fact that I overplayed my hand in creating my case on him. I exaggerated and lied in building the case, he says. In essence, it's an extended, pretty-looking OMGUS. His case doesn't go back on anything that happened D1, but consists entirely of discrediting my case. He says it looks like I made my case N2, and that I've been tunneling him since D1, and purposely killing off pro-Ash townies in order to set up his lynch. His case, though, is basically (his words) "that I've painted myself into a scummy corner".

I don't know how people aren't seeing the case on Ash. There are scummy interactions with Nkirbit. There are! Ash's case on me basically amounts to "TA made a bad case". Yet, Ash should know that bad cases don't come from scum exclusively, it's also very possible for town to make a bad case. However, the fact that I made a bad case has made Ashersky sure that I'm scum.

Raerae, liopoil, those of you who don't see the Ashersky case as having reason, please ask me why and I'll try to prove to why exactly why Ashersky is scum. (whether that happens today or tomorrow)
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1402 on: July 31, 2013, 12:43:12 pm »

Voltaire (6): shraeye, mcmcsalot, chairs, Jimmmm, TA, Robz (L-1) -
chairs (6): nkirbit, Voltaire, Eevee, raerae, liopoil, Snow (L-1)
mcmcsalot: (1) ashersky

So, if chairs is town, this is pretty useless as scum doesn't really care which townie gets lynched.

So, what needs to be true for chairs to be scum? Well, nkirbit was on him all day, would a second member of their team stay on him when it looked like a very real possibility he could be the lynch? I doubt it, so for chairs to be scum, the third one would need to be Jimm, Ta or mcmc. Is this reasonable?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1403 on: July 31, 2013, 12:43:34 pm »

Jeez eevee, gimme some time to respond :)

I think your scummy because your ash position struck me as odd early on, the way you interpreted how he was playing early felt like you had an agenda. Later your reads have just conflicted with mine. You found me and robz suspicious for supporting each other and found robz scummy for his depression. You were very wrong on robz and I don't think it was scummy of us to support eachother(you have of course not mentioned it now that he flipped town) hence why I think you are playing very scummily.

I also think both wagons were on town. I think scum split up so sadly I doubt we can use the wagon for much other than I agree chairs is towny.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1404 on: July 31, 2013, 12:50:10 pm »

Finding chairs towny is an ok result though, one less target.

I never heavily pushed finding your interactions with Robz odd. It was the first time I had seen you guys agree on everything so nicely, it struck to me as odd, I pointed it out. I didn't even remember the whole thing before you brought it up again. Maybe you did because I was right about it?

You saying I'm scummy for not pushing it now that Robz has flipped scum is again super scummy to me. If I was scum, wouldn't I exactly want to do that - line up my mislynches by saying "well, mcmc was the scum in that duo it seems!? On the contrary, I was actually one of the more pro-mcmc players earlier today, it is of late that your positions that aren't making sense to me are raising red flags.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1405 on: July 31, 2013, 01:06:20 pm »

Finding chairs towny is an ok result though, one less target.

I never heavily pushed finding your interactions with Robz odd. It was the first time I had seen you guys agree on everything so nicely, it struck to me as odd, I pointed it out. I didn't even remember the whole thing before you brought it up again. Maybe you did because I was right about it?

You saying I'm scummy for not pushing it now that Robz has flipped scum is again super scummy to me. If I was scum, wouldn't I exactly want to do that - line up my mislynches by saying "well, mcmc was the scum in that duo it seems!? On the contrary, I was actually one of the more pro-mcmc players earlier today, it is of late that your positions that aren't making sense to me are raising red flags.

The reason I found your not bringing it up(and even forgetting about it) scummy was because it was an interaction that I personally found very townie on both our parts, a confirmed towny has had a strong town read on me, and you noted that interaction. You now have not brought that up, which doesn't seem to be something town eevee would do, I think town eevee notes that interaction, is curious, and applies that later when the number of people have dwindled to scum hunt.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1406 on: July 31, 2013, 01:08:49 pm »

Also throwing this out there. Me, robz, shraeye, and TA, were pretty confidently on volt and not chairs. That leaves just Jimm as a potential swing to chairs, makes the possibility of nk bussing chairs for towncred with ash waiting to decide what he needs to do till the last minute more likely.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
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Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1407 on: July 31, 2013, 01:12:21 pm »

Also throwing this out there. Me, robz, shraeye, and TA, were pretty confidently on volt and not chairs. That leaves just Jimm as a potential swing to chairs, makes the possibility of nk bussing chairs for towncred with ash waiting to decide what he needs to do till the last minute more likely.

Yes, but, some of this happened after Chairs got to L-1, and after he claimed. I wasn't sold until I saw the VT claim, personally. I just don't think Nkirbit risks his partner getting to L-1 on D1. He was one of the drivers of that wagon, not someone who popped on later. I doubt scum drives a fellow-scum wagon on D1, it's just not a great move to make.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1408 on: July 31, 2013, 01:17:48 pm »

So, just based on the last couple pages...

nkirbit/ashersky/mcmcs as a scumteam.  It puts one of the scum on each wagon and one off (on his fellow mafia member, no less) allowing for a "why would I think mcmc was scum if I was scum" argument later for ash.

Thoughts?

Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1409 on: July 31, 2013, 01:19:26 pm »

So, just based on the last couple pages...

nkirbit/ashersky/mcmcs as a scumteam.  It puts one of the scum on each wagon and one off (on his fellow mafia member, no less) allowing for a "why would I think mcmc was scum if I was scum" argument later for ash.

Thoughts?

I think it's Nkirbit/Ashersky/x. I doubt it's Mcmc if Ashersky is scum. I don't see the utility in calling the entire team now, though! One at a time -- it's not LYLO, so we just need to catch 1 scum right now.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1410 on: July 31, 2013, 01:21:41 pm »

So, just based on the last couple pages...

nkirbit/ashersky/mcmcs as a scumteam.  It puts one of the scum on each wagon and one off (on his fellow mafia member, no less) allowing for a "why would I think mcmc was scum if I was scum" argument later for ash.

Thoughts?
Plausible, but not the only possibility.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1411 on: July 31, 2013, 02:01:48 pm »

Certainly I'm not sold on a scumteam.  I am leaning more and more ashersky, however, and based on that I'm trying to decide who I might think is #3.

chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1412 on: July 31, 2013, 02:03:31 pm »

I guess my argument here is that we should either lynch ash, or no-lynch.  I still feel like no-lynch is the right move, statistically, as it buys our PR another night and doesn't lose us a lynch.

Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1413 on: July 31, 2013, 02:08:59 pm »

I agree.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1414 on: July 31, 2013, 03:53:21 pm »

Everyone agrees on no lynch...

We are simply using the day as well...

So what argument are you making???

Why do you personally find ash scummy?

Do you think I am scummy or I it with an ash nk team?
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1415 on: July 31, 2013, 03:56:09 pm »

Who are you asking, Mcmc?
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1416 on: July 31, 2013, 03:58:03 pm »

Finding chairs towny is an ok result though, one less target.

I never heavily pushed finding your interactions with Robz odd. It was the first time I had seen you guys agree on everything so nicely, it struck to me as odd, I pointed it out. I didn't even remember the whole thing before you brought it up again. Maybe you did because I was right about it?

You saying I'm scummy for not pushing it now that Robz has flipped scum is again super scummy to me. If I was scum, wouldn't I exactly want to do that - line up my mislynches by saying "well, mcmc was the scum in that duo it seems!? On the contrary, I was actually one of the more pro-mcmc players earlier today, it is of late that your positions that aren't making sense to me are raising red flags.

The reason I found your not bringing it up(and even forgetting about it) scummy was because it was an interaction that I personally found very townie on both our parts, a confirmed towny has had a strong town read on me, and you noted that interaction. You now have not brought that up, which doesn't seem to be something town eevee would do, I think town eevee notes that interaction, is curious, and applies that later when the number of people have dwindled to scum hunt.
You seem to forget I originally thought that that interaction made it more likely that one (and exactly one) of you two is scum. Robz's record of reading you isn't exactly stellar, fwiw.
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Eevee

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1417 on: July 31, 2013, 03:59:36 pm »

Are mcmc's accusations towards me making sense to others? I have a hard time following his logic, to be honest.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1418 on: July 31, 2013, 04:01:27 pm »

Questions were at chairs,

I did forget that eevee, it changes things.
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liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1419 on: July 31, 2013, 05:15:35 pm »

Are mcmc's accusations towards me making sense to others? I have a hard time following his logic, to be honest.
same here. I don't know why he thinks that raerae and I are town (because I haven't been especially townie, I've been quiet). And I don't really suspect eevee at all.
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ashersky

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1420 on: July 31, 2013, 05:35:10 pm »

Going back to my case versus Ash's case:

A large part of my case on Ash was based on interactions with Nkirbit. Looking back, there's a definite connection between Nkirbit and AShersky. Nkirbit chose to not push the Ashersky wagon when it was going, but to redirect elsewhere and to hunt for scum on Ashersky's wagon. This was an attempt to discredit the wagon, and to get it to fall apart, I believe. Regardless, though, we know that Nkirbit chose to not find Ashersky scummy when he had four other people voting for him. Could be an attempt to get town cred, could be an attempt to cover for a partner. I lean the second.

Ashersky's case is mostly built on the fact that I overplayed my hand in creating my case on him. I exaggerated and lied in building the case, he says. In essence, it's an extended, pretty-looking OMGUS. His case doesn't go back on anything that happened D1, but consists entirely of discrediting my case. He says it looks like I made my case N2, and that I've been tunneling him since D1, and purposely killing off pro-Ash townies in order to set up his lynch. His case, though, is basically (his words) "that I've painted myself into a scummy corner".

I don't know how people aren't seeing the case on Ash. There are scummy interactions with Nkirbit. There are! Ash's case on me basically amounts to "TA made a bad case". Yet, Ash should know that bad cases don't come from scum exclusively, it's also very possible for town to make a bad case. However, the fact that I made a bad case has made Ashersky sure that I'm scum.

Raerae, liopoil, those of you who don't see the Ashersky case as having reason, please ask me why and I'll try to prove to why exactly why Ashersky is scum. (whether that happens today or tomorrow)

I think you gave yourself away here.  Look at your first line.  How could a large part of your case be based on nkirbit interactions, when your case against me has been going strong since D1?  You know that I'm not lying here.  None of us knew nkirbit was scum D1 except for his partners.  I think that's where you've messed up.  Your knowledge from D1 you've added into your case retroactively...it isn't knowledge a towny would have.

You are caught.
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chairs

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1421 on: July 31, 2013, 05:45:13 pm »

Everyone agrees on no lynch...

We are simply using the day as well...

So what argument are you making???

Why do you personally find ash scummy?

Do you think I am scummy or I it with an ash nk team?

If we all agree on no-lynch, then I don't necessarily feel like I've got to make an argument.  This whole time I've been assuming that TA and Ash were still sold on lynching one of them.

I find Ash scummy primarily based on the re-read of liopoil I did - I noticed quite a few posts shortly before or after lio posts that made me twitch.

I think you fit with an ash/nkirbit team, I haven't gotten a scum-vibe off of you in particular.

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1422 on: July 31, 2013, 05:49:01 pm »

My case d1 was based on the gambit, which I thought was scummy. Today I added the nkirbit stuff.

If you are town I'm going to love your reaction when you see my flip. But you won't be shocked since you are really scum.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1423 on: July 31, 2013, 05:50:08 pm »

Ash, do you have any other case against me other than that I "gave myself away" with my terrible case on you?

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liopoil

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Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day3
« Reply #1424 on: July 31, 2013, 05:56:44 pm »

I find Ash scummy primarily based on the re-read of liopoil I did
put this in the out-of-context thread :P.

but actually, I think I am going to reread Ashersky. partially to get a good read on ashersky, but partially to look more closely at his case on TA and so to read TA as well.
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