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[ashersky]

I don't have time to reply to everything right now but I will be online tomorrow morning before the deadline, but only starting about an hour beforehand. I know that sucks but I have to go to bed now. I'll try to get on earlier if I can.

An hour before the deadline isn't much.  It isn't enough time for you to really make any decision based on what he is going to claim?

I don't know, do you think anyone else can hammer if you can't?  I think everyone's on one wagon or the other but you.  And he may not be on in that time.

On the other hand, what if he's a powerrole?  Shit, I don't know.

The only thing that would make me worry at all is your final line.  PR.

So, imagine Volt's a PR.  How does he react when he sees a lot of movement today and himself at L-2?  Not like he did, in my estimation.  No scramble, no worry, nothing.  I just don't see it.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Let's talk it through.

Scenario A) Volt claims a power role.

Scenario B) Volt claims a poor little helpless Vanilla Townie

Do you hammer in both situations?  Why?

If yes, I say just hammer and we'll all monday morning quarterback you on it later

[nkirbit]

Ash, what's your problem with the Chairs case, other than the fact that "It's a convenience lynch"?

Basically, my reasoning for thinking Chairs is scum is that he scummily sheeped onto you during your self-voting period.  He voted while saying things like "I'm going to be miffed if you guys are right and he's just doing crazy things", which indicates either a good deal of uncertainty, or knowledge that he's wrong.

He voted Voltaire initially, only saying "Gut alarm".  He said he would back up his gut feeling with a re-read, but didn't.  He unvoted while TA was tunneling, which tells me that he's aware of what others are thinking of his votes, and is concerned with not appearing towny.  He unvoted immediately after TA said, "I'm uneasy about both of these lynches", saying "Perhaps TA is right and I'm tunneling." If your read was weak enough that all it took to get you off of it was another player saying "I'm uneasy about this", then why you were voting in the first place?  I'd be willing to excuse this if there wasn't already votes on Voltaire, but I don't think town wants to be voting on a very weak read when they're the third player on a wagon.

Mainly, he has twice joined wagons without a good reason, and has expressed uncertainty about those wagons.  If he were town, I think he wouldn't be joining wagons where he has such uncertainty about the person he's voting.  If he was town, I suspect he would be more careful with voting for players who already had other players voting for them if he reads really were as weak as he's acted like they were.

I'm also concerned with his tone towards Voltaire in #751.  I think it's unlike anything I've seen from Chairs in other games, and Chairs in other games has been town.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also, Chairs' constantly shifting story on what his gut reads mean, where they came from, or now retroactively having a gut read on Voltaire 3 days before he voted, and soon after he'd posted that he found Voltaire towny and Robz scummy.

And despite his dodging the issue, he did vote for Voltaire right after Volt's Robz vote, despite his earlier reads that he still has yet to even address.

It's like he doesn't even remember why he has the reads that he does or when he came up with them!  Almost like they aren't actually based on anything in particular!

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't know about you guys, but I could make a fricking timeline of who I thought was scummy when, why, and if and when I changed my mind.

Hell, I could write you a book.  That's not a threat, don't worry.

[Jorbles]

Vote Count 1.18

"Where did the weapon go?" asked The Cook. "Can't we use that as a piece of evidence and for fingerprints?" she asked The Cop.

The Cop agreed, but apparently no one had thought to grab the Candlestick from upstairs. The group left the Study and ran up the stairs to the room that yuma was found in.

"Where did it go?" asked Mrs. White. "It was here on the floor when Professor Plum found yuma."

"Are you sure it was in this room?" asked Yvette the Maid. "Let's look in the other rooms to make sure."

Professor Plum, Mrs. White, Mr. Boddy and Col. Mustard were left in the room as the others went to check the other rooms.

Each room was as empty of candlesticks as the other. Everyone was very confused and were even more confused when a loud sound of a door being slammed was heard.

Suddenly The Cook, The Cop, Mrs. Peacock and The Mechanic were locked inside one of the rooms.

"Let us out, let us out!" they shouted!

"Let us in, let us in!" shouted everyone else.



Voltaire (6): shraeye, mcmcsalot, chairs, Jimmmm, TA, Robz (L-1)
chairs (6): nkirbit, Voltaire, Eevee, raerae, liopoil, Snow (L-1)
mcmcsalot: (1) ashersky


With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day1 ends July 22nd at 10:30 a.m. forum time.

[ashersky]

Okay, I just read all of Voltaire's 105 posts.  I kept as open a mind as possible.

Here's what I saw:

1)  A number of posts I could put in the "towny" category.  I see how some of you have a town read on the guy.
2)  A few actions that could be calculated scum moves.  The policy vote, which many have pointed out.  The argument very early on that town is happy with a 1-for-1 trade using the Hider's death while the theory talk was happening.  His vote hopping (Jimmmm to Robz to ash to chairs).
3)  A lot of null reads.  He even downgraded me to "null" after I unvoted myself.

I haven't re-read chairs.  I will.

[ashersky]

And I just read all of chairs's 46.

I came away with the realization that I have a town read on chairs for the same reason I have a town read on Snow.  So I can either trust that, or not.

I think that when chairs put in the effort earlier in the game, it was clearly the work of a towny.  The fact that he didn't finish his +/- system on everyone, after having started, is towny to me, because scum would be sure not to let that slip, since it looks bad.  His VT claim looks terrible, it really does, but what sort of towny claims like that?  Remember Eevee's true claim as compared to Galzria's fake claim?

I see some of what the anti-chairs faction sees as reasons to lynch the guy.  But I have a town read there, and I'm pretty confident of it.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So the big question:

Scenario A) Volt claims a power role.  Do you still vote for him?

Scenario B) Volt claims a poor little helpless Vanilla Townie.  Do you still vote for him?

[ashersky]

Answer: Vote: Voltaire

[ashersky]

To further elaborate, I guess, given it is twilight:

Volt verified for us that if he is scum, he's claiming VT.  So VT claims don't help him.  But he knows he said that, perfectly setting himself up for a PR claim, if scum.  So either way, no way to know.

I am interested in seeing what he claims, given he's lynched.  But in the end, it would not have mattered to me.  In choosing between the two, Voltaire has the better chance of being mafia.  Chairs is a townread, and Volt is not.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I can't argue with your reasoning.  I think I'd have done the same thing if I were in your position, just the other way around, but by the same logic.

Now that the suspense isn't killing me anymore, I'm going to sleep.  Maybe I'll wake up to find out I was wrong.  Here's hoping.

[mcmcsalot]

To further elaborate, I guess, given it is twilight:

Volt verified for us that if he is scum, he's claiming VT.  So VT claims don't help him.  But he knows he said that, perfectly setting himself up for a PR claim, if scum.  So either way, no way to know.

I am interested in seeing what he claims, given he's lynched.  But in the end, it would not have mattered to me.  In choosing between the two, Voltaire has the better chance of being mafia.  Chairs is a townread, and Volt is not.

yaay

[mcmcsalot]

D1 Reads/Thoughts:

1. Robz - Pretty townie, don't understand the suspicion on him so far.
2. Liopoil - Suspicious but not acting like the scumlio I've seen so not sure where to go with that.
3. Twistedarcher - There are a lot of similarities here to Innovation TA.  I know Volt cautioned against this but this game started when that was in full swing and the scum team was trouncing town so I feel like it's reasonable to consider TA coming in overconfident on his scum performance.
4. Shraeye - Always suspicious of how townie he is.  I'm watching you, Wazowski.  Always watching...
5. Eevee - Fully expect more participation out of him.  Suspicious because he simply hasn't been as helpful as I expect Eevee to be. 
6. Voltaire - Totally unsure.  See the merits of shraeye's accusations but see some town here too.
7. UmbrageOfSnow - Null read, seems to throw towncred at people who agree, scumcred to those who don't, I don't assign the same towncred to that a lot of people seem to.
8. Jimmmm - Same as Eevee, expect more here.
9. Nkirbit - Can't remember much.  Another null.
10. Chairs - My thoughts on him are clear
11. Mcmcsalot - Not a lot to go off of. 
12. Ashersky - Townie, same boat as Robz

I think this is a really hedgy, unsure view of the alternative lynch to Chairs, that doesn't really tell us anything at all.

I agree with Mcmc's analysis that you really aren't saying all that much here, and that you have very few scum reads beyond "suspicions" that aren't putting yourself out there at all.

No.  No.  It's D1.  I refuse to name a scumteam D1.  I won't because that's ridiculous.  I reserve the right to be unsure about everything ESPECIALLY D1.  Why did you only point out Volt?  None of my reads were solid.  All could be considered hedgey.  Why only point the finger at Volt?

obviously i'm not one to talk about being helpfull, but i think there is a bit of a difference between naming a scum team and having a decent amount of scum reads/town reads. your null all over the board, also i dont like you insinuating i called a scum team, are we not allowed to have three scum reads D1 anymore...

[mcmcsalot]

Here is my shortened reads list

Scum:
Voltaire (most very likely),
Twitsed (definitely),
nkirbit (it's a pretty weak read)

people I'm suspicious of:
Jimmmm (I keep feeling uneasy when I think of him as town; but also when I think of him as scum),
Umbrage (null for now; if Twisted flips scum, his scumminess goes up)

Super-null:
Robz
liopoil (I was messin' around earlier)
Eevee
chairs (i haven't even read this case yet; I promise to if somebody gives me post numbers to check on)

people who I feel comfortable with:
raerae (she cool),
mcmcsalot (this last-hour suspicion really makes me skeptical...when I'm scum and my partner is picking up scumreads, but isn't in the limelight, I'm unlikely to also call him scum. But if some towny is picking up sideline suspicion, I'll fan those flames and call him scum too.  The fact that 6-7 people find him suspicious and he's like the double double backup list as others pursue other stuff; it makes me lean town)

Town:
ashersky (I'm pretty confident in this)

swap eevee with twisted, and chairs with umbrage and we good. also robz be town

[chairs]

Well, that was unexpected.

I'll try to get more sleep this week so I can be more effective for town in D2.

[Voltaire]

NO-ONE HAMMER ME I AM HERE catching up

[Voltaire]

Answer: Vote: Voltaire

Well fuck.

I'm the trackerlante. For realz. Ash this up so that if I were able to claim beforehand, it would look scummy on me. I am not going to say ash is mafia but I will say he is the scummiest player this game. He also warned everyone not to switch from me to chairs. The chairs wagon wasn't going through.

Seriously ash got chairs to claim VT and hammered a PR with no chance to claim. SERIOUSLY. This is almost a 100% perfect day for scum.

Either ash is mafia or he is a horrible town player this game.

I'm not calling ash/chairs/??? but it looks way more likely than 24 hours ago.

It sounds like we'll get a long twilight so I'll happily talk about anything.

[liopoil]

You're too late

Ash, you should have waited. Oh well, what's done is done, let's see how it turns out.

[liopoil]

Well, that actually makes me think he's more likely to be scum.

[Voltaire]

To further elaborate, I guess, given it is twilight:

Volt verified for us that if he is scum, he's claiming VT.  So VT claims don't help him.  But he knows he said that, perfectly setting himself up for a PR claim, if scum.  So either way, no way to know.

I didn't scramble because I was away all day Sunday with real life things. I knew the deadline was tomorrow (today), so I was planning on simply checking to see if there was a lynch or not (knowing I was a candidate) but knowing things would be slow because it was the weekend. I didn't anticipate anybody being as reckless or irresponsible as ash was.

Seriously. Either ash is mafia or he is horrible for you, town.

Reads, in order, scum to town:

ash
chairs
mcmc
Robz
TA
Jimmmm
Eevee
nkirbit
lio
raerae/shraeye
UmbrageOfSnow

[Voltaire]

Guyzzzzzzzz the chairs wagon was so hard to get through. 

I wish town the best. You really have your work cut out for you. I'll be following along in spirit.

[Voltaire]

Well, that actually makes me think he's more likely to be scum.

Who is the "he" there?

[liopoil]

You! There are 3 scum, and only one trackervig. Scum would totally claim PR in this situation in twilight.

[Voltaire]

You! There are 3 scum, and only one trackervig. Scum would totally claim PR in this situation in twilight.

You will see I am so not lying in, what, two+ hours when yuma posts the flip? Seriously. The moment I read ash poison the well like he did, I was furious, because I knew even if I claimed, he'd still hammer me. A TOWN PR. HE WOULD HAMMER A CLAIMED TOWN PR. NO, HE WOULDN'T EVEN LET THE TOWN PR CLAIM, HE'D HAMMER WITH NO CLAIM.

Why do I think this happened? Because I think I accidentally outed myself as the trackerlante early in the day, and ash caught it. It's obvious I'm not the hider. I made that mistake in my math showing I wasn't the psychodoctor. I was doing the "play a tiny bit scummy as a town PR to not get mislynched" thing I do, and ash caught it I'm thinking. Then he poisoned the well so no-one would believe me and BOOM town just lynched a PR day 1.