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[Eevee]

The Robz-mcmc interactions look weird. I think there is a good chance one of them is scum and being overly nice and agreaable to the other. If they were both town, I think there'd be at least some suspicion, now you seem to have no problem with buddying up to each other and finishing the other's sentences.

[Voltaire]

The deadline is rapidly approaching and, more importantly, we are not agreeing on any sort of lynch.

I did a re-read of chairs prepared to make a nice pretty post about why we should lynch him, but he's not nearly as scummy on re-read. His defense lines up with his actions rather well and I see him as uncertain town. Which is frustrating, because there goes my top read.

So instead I started looking at my next read, Robz. Here's what Robz has done in this game:

• opposed theory talk
• advocated for town!ash
• sheeped me about Jimmmmm
• sheeped TA about Voltaire (me)
• said I am "manifestly the scummiest," latter elaborates it is because I am cautious/reactive
• says mcmc is real-life busy
• says chairs reacts scummily to pressure, does not vote chairs
• says Snow's case on him is good
• weird thing with TA (scum-phraseology)

This case, and Snow's, aren't the greatest things in the world, but I'm comfortable with a vote: Robz because in addition to the slight scumminess, he really hasn't been helping out town.

I'd like to have a stronger/read vote, but this is where we are.

[mcmcsalot]

So instead I started looking at my next read, Robz. Here's what Robz has done in this game:

• opposed theory talk
• advocated for town!ash
• sheeped me about Jimmmmm
• sheeped TA about Voltaire (me)
• said I am "manifestly the scummiest," latter elaborates it is because I am cautious/reactive
• says mcmc is real-life busy
• says chairs reacts scummily to pressure, does not vote chairs
• says Snow's case on him is good
• weird thing with TA (scum-phraseology)

This case, and Snow's, aren't the greatest things in the world, but I'm comfortable with a vote: Robz because in addition to the slight scumminess, he really hasn't been helping out town.

I'd like to have a stronger/read vote, but this is where we are.

Okay here's the issue with your case

• 3 other people did this
• again others did this, and disagreeing with you does not equal scum
• I sheeped you both
• again I sheeped you both and by sheep I mean agree...
• doesn't make him scummy
• I am, defending a town read is a better way to help town then pushing a scum era when your scum reads are generally poor but you can rely on one or two town reads

Haven't read enough about the end stuff but man that's a weak case based in disagreements you have with robz.i mean really weak vote this late seems strange to me, simply because you made such a pretty case that inflated your reasoning.

[Voltaire]

Haven't read enough about the end stuff but man that's a weak case based in disagreements you have with robz.i mean really weak vote this late seems strange to me, simply because you made such a pretty case that inflated your reasoning.

What would you rather I do? Not vote and have us no-lynch? I'm trying to play/scumhunt, you appear to be hanging back on purpose.

[mail-mi]

Attention All Taggers:

We need someone to do vote counts next week because yuma will be gone and I will also be gone. Please PM yuma.

[Voltaire]

i mean really weak vote this late seems strange to me, simply because you made such a pretty case that inflated your reasoning.

Make a better case then.

[chairs]

Vote: Voltaire

I'll reread tonight to see if I can point out why the gut alarm went off.

[Voltaire]

Vote: Voltaire

I'll reread tonight to see if I can point out why the gut alarm went off.

Well this is certainly frustrating. Whenever there's a case out there for me to respond to I'll give it my best. What I'll say right now is that I'm an active town member trying to scumhunt and getting voted for it.

[chairs]

Vote: Voltaire

I'll reread tonight to see if I can point out why the gut alarm went off.

Well this is certainly frustrating. Whenever there's a case out there for me to respond to I'll give it my best. What I'll say right now is that I'm an active town member trying to scumhunt and getting voted for it.

I want to believe that, which is why I'm going to try my damnedest tonight to either prove or disprove the itch at the back of my neck with more logical arguments.

[mcmcsalot]

Haven't read enough about the end stuff but man that's a weak case based in disagreements you have with robz.i mean really weak vote this late seems strange to me, simply because you made such a pretty case that inflated your reasoning.

What would you rather I do? Not vote and have us no-lynch? I'm trying to play/scumhunt, you appear to be hanging back on purpose.

We are not an hour from deadline, no reason to be in scramble mode, protecting my town reads is a perfectly good thing to be doing.

I think there is scum in the group of volt, chairs, nk. I so I have been watching what those three have been doing. I think you just made a decent slip. You are worried we are approaching deadline without a good wagon on a townie, robz is an easy target as there was some suspicion on him so you make a weak but pretty case, when I point out flaws in your case rather than defending it you take the stance "well I'm just worried about town and trying to scumhunt" you seem to care less that the case is bad and more that I find you scummy.

vote: Voltaire

[Voltaire]

Haven't read enough about the end stuff but man that's a weak case based in disagreements you have with robz.i mean really weak vote this late seems strange to me, simply because you made such a pretty case that inflated your reasoning.

What would you rather I do? Not vote and have us no-lynch? I'm trying to play/scumhunt, you appear to be hanging back on purpose.

We are not an hour from deadline, no reason to be in scramble mode, protecting my town reads is a perfectly good thing to be doing.

I think there is scum in the group of volt, chairs, nk. I so I have been watching what those three have been doing. I think you just made a decent slip. You are worried we are approaching deadline without a good wagon on a townie, robz is an easy target as there was some suspicion on him so you make a weak but pretty case, when I point out flaws in your case rather than defending it you take the stance "well I'm just worried about town and trying to scumhunt" you seem to care less that the case is bad and more that I find you scummy.

vote: Voltaire

No, what I care is that the only thing you seem to be doing is voting someone who made a case. I'm not upset because we're approaching deadline "without a good wagon on a townie," I'm upset because we're approaching deadline without any wagon! We all agree D1 no-lynch is a bad idea. And the more wagons we build, the more information we get. And we increase the chances that our final wagon will be on scum.

I'm at L-3 now. TA has voted for me in the past, so it'll be interesting to see if he comes back now that I have more votes. Raerae has set themself up nicely to vote me. Ash states I'm a bit scummy and later calls my wagon viable.

Maybe chairs really is scum?

[Jorbles]

\tag

I can do vote counts next week.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Okay, I'm catching up now, then I'll be gone for a bit, around for a bit, gone a bit more, but I should be back and active around 8 P.M. EST until midnight (or actually 1 A.M. or later probably.)  Thoughts on the past page or whatever in a moment.

[nkirbit]

Vote: Voltaire

I'll reread tonight to see if I can point out why the gut alarm went off.

This is the second time that we've seen Chairs hop on a wagon without a good reason to do so.  I was unconvinced by his reasoning for voting Ashersky, and here we don't even have an explanation, just a "gut feeling".

Vote: Chairs

[Twistedarcher]

One thing I've noticed a little bit in past games is that Robz giving Mcmc a towny read for little reason = a little bit of a scum tell for Robz, and Mcmc giving Robz a towny read for little reason = a little bit of a scum tell for Mcmc. This makes me a little suspicious of Mcmc.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

If it's scum phrase-ology, why are you advising me to not doing it, rather than calling me out on it?

Why indeed....?

First question, wtf was this, and why is "Humor me" a scum thing to say rather than a turn-of-phrase that some people might use more than others?  I'm sure someone can come up with some psychobabble post hoc justification, but is that something that you actually consider a "scumtell'?  Because that seems really weak.

Of course, Robz might know it seems really weak, hence the very soft accusation rather than actually calling him out on it in any direct or clear way.  Robz comes off scummier from this weird exchange to me, in that  Robz has completely deflected people reading from focussing on TA's question of Ash's weird statement that he is scum here.  It confuses things in a way that is no way beneficial to town, and it sets up an accusation of TA without committing to it in case no one else jumps on-board the TA wagon.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Also, if either Robz or Ash flipped scum, that exchange between Robz and TA would make me more suspicious of the other. 

At this point I'm probably back up to having Ash at a slight scumread by the way, although as I've said, I'm nowhere near as convinced as I once was.

[Twistedarcher]

Also, if either Robz or Ash flipped scum, that exchange between Robz and TA would make me more suspicious of the other. 

At this point I'm probably back up to having Ash at a slight scumread by the way, although as I've said, I'm nowhere near as convinced as I once was.

I don't get why Ash acting normally has given people a town read on him. If he was acting normally from the start, we'd be looking for at what he's actually doing. But him going from acting crazy and self-voting to playing normally has made multiple people say "Ash is playing normally now, so I think he's more towny." But I don't get why someone acting anti-town at the start, THEN playing normally, gives people a town-read, when Ash simply playing normally from the start wouldn't have necessarily given that town read.

Yes, Ash it playing more "towny" than he was earlier. But this doesn't necessarily make him not scum, and I think people are giving him and his gambit too much credit. I'm still really thinking he's scum.

[Voltaire]

Also, if either Robz or Ash flipped scum, that exchange between Robz and TA would make me more suspicious of the other. 

At this point I'm probably back up to having Ash at a slight scumread by the way, although as I've said, I'm nowhere near as convinced as I once was.

I don't get why Ash acting normally has given people a town read on him. If he was acting normally from the start, we'd be looking for at what he's actually doing. But him going from acting crazy and self-voting to playing normally has made multiple people say "Ash is playing normally now, so I think he's more towny." But I don't get why someone acting anti-town at the start, THEN playing normally, gives people a town-read, when Ash simply playing normally from the start wouldn't have necessarily given that town read.

Yes, Ash it playing more "towny" than he was earlier. But this doesn't necessarily make him not scum, and I think people are giving him and his gambit too much credit. I'm still really thinking he's scum.

And I still have a weird null read on him, for basically the same reasons you state, I just come to a different conclusion.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Eevee pointing out the Robz-Mcmcsalot interactions gives me a bit more of a townread on Eevee (although by no means a strong one, I'd probably say I'm unwilling to vote for him today without some big change.)

Both Robz (obviously) and Mcmcsalot are people I'd be okay with voting for.  I prefer Robz though, as I think there's a lot more evidence to go on there, and weirder behavior overall while most of the case I've seen on Mcmcsalot seems gut-based or compared to previous games (of which I have no experience and can't be a particularly good judge of these as evidence vs. manipulation of evidence.)

That said, I do have a mild scumread on Mcmcsalot, admittedly based on not enough evidence that I'm not inclined to put my vote there unless someone presents a better case than we've seen on him so far, or I'm forced to choose between suboptimal lynches with him vs. someone I have a townread on.

[raerae]

liopoil reread:

OK, so not a lot there, 23ish posts, not a ton of theory but more than I think is helpful (I begrudgingly admit that my opinion on that particular subject has no bearing on alignment).  I suppose he does get a few town points for fighting so loudly for his plan because, in my experience, scumlio is a little more agreeable that that.  Not a whole lot more than that, answers my questions and takes a few stances so that leaves me with a mostly null read, evidence makes me lean town but I still have a nagging gut scum read.

Lio, you mentioned a reread in one of your posts.  Making any progress on that?  Care to enlighten the class?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't get why Ash acting normally has given people a town read on him.

In my case, that's because (and I admit this may not be true, and I never moved him beyond null-at best) my big wall post of how few contributions he'd made during the game was intended to shame him into helping more if he were actually town as some people seemed to be insisting, and perhaps drive him crazier if he were really committed to this weird gambit as scum.  In my opinion, he reacted to that as Town would (after a brief rage period, which I can understand.)

If he was acting normally from the start, we'd be looking for at what he's actually doing. But him going from acting crazy and self-voting to playing normally has made multiple people say "Ash is playing normally now, so I think he's more towny." But I don't get why someone acting anti-town at the start, THEN playing normally, gives people a town-read, when Ash simply playing normally from the start wouldn't have necessarily given that town read.

Yes, Ash it playing more "towny" than he was earlier. But this doesn't necessarily make him not scum, and I think people are giving him and his gambit too much credit. I'm still really thinking he's scum.

I still agree with you that a scum gambit makes perfect sense and I have no trouble believing it.  If he were to flip scum, I wouldn't be shocked.  If the Ash wagon were to get going and I had to choose between Ash and another player, I'd often choose Ash.  It makes plenty of sense for scum.

I do think people are giving him a lot of credit.  Perhaps it's my fault for starting that.  I give him credit because I think he reacted to the big-wall-of-calling-him-useless in a more towny way and got helpful with some interesting posts.  I also thought I should be careful of latching onto only one person, hence my rereading the thread and building a case on Robz, whom I think is even more scummy than Ash at this point.

I don't think your reasons are wrong, but it seemed to me that the lynch wasn't going to happen, that he'd done enough things towny to give me more doubt, and that I needed to put another option out there that I knew wasn't manipulated by scum.  I'm going to have to go back and look at things again to work out the narrative, but both the Voltaire and the Liopoil wagons seem to smell of manipulation to me.  I'm just not sure who I think is manipulating who.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Haven't read enough about the end stuff but man that's a weak case based in disagreements you have with robz.i mean really weak vote this late seems strange to me, simply because you made such a pretty case that inflated your reasoning.

What would you rather I do? Not vote and have us no-lynch? I'm trying to play/scumhunt, you appear to be hanging back on purpose.

We are not an hour from deadline, no reason to be in scramble mode, protecting my town reads is a perfectly good thing to be doing.

This doesn't really read like "scramble mode" to me.  It seems like exactly what all of us are/should be doing.  Isn't the big reason behind lurkers being anti-town that we need people to go out and look for scum, and that putting down votes and reads gives us something to analyze, both now and tomorrow when we can look at who was on or off what wagon?

I'm all for defending your town reads, that is perfectly towny, but voting for someone for voting your townread is much less so.

I think there is scum in the group of volt, chairs, nk.

Why?  What do this group have in common other than all being people that others have mentioned as potential lynch candidates?  To be fair, I have scumreads on chairs and nkirbit, so I wouldn't bet against you here, but where did this group come from?

I think you just made a decent slip. You are worried we are approaching deadline without a good wagon on a townie, robz is an easy target as there was some suspicion on him so you make a weak but pretty case, when I point out flaws in your case rather than defending it you take the stance "well I'm just worried about town and trying to scumhunt" you seem to care less that the case is bad and more that I find you scummy.

Alternatively, being worried that we are approaching deadline without a good wagon on someone you have a scumread on is a perfectly valid thing to worry about for town!  This is the kind of logic that makes equal sense if you assume he is scum or town, because you see him as scum, you're interpreting it as scum evidence.

I don't know that Robz is an easy target either.  Obviously, I'm the person that thinks he is the best target, but what makes him easier?  That he's been acting suspicious?

WHY DO WE KEEP DISMISSING POSTS FOR BEING "PRETTY"?!  This is bad logic, and a bad attack.  Scum wants things to be persuasive, town wants things to be persuasive. People are occasionally more persuaded by a good layout, and it's certainly easier to read.  That does not make a good layout either towny or scummy!

And finally, you should really notice that he was quoting and responding to Chairs immediately voting for him for making a case, not Mcmcsalot for defending Robz.

I find Mcmcsalot much scummier for this exchange.  I find Chairs somewhat scummier.  I'm pretty null on Voltaire.  He could be scum, could be town.

(Mafia is hard!  Everyone acts so suspiciously!)

[ashersky]

A quick thought on the coversation about how much credit I'm receiving.

I think TA's point is valid, and the way in which people have changed since I've calmed down should be analyzed and taken into account when making reads.  There are specific ways I expect scum and town to differ.  For example:

And I still have a weird null read on him, for basically the same reasons you state, I just come to a different conclusion.

Hardcore hedge with very little substance.  Now, here's the thing about hedging: it's almost always related to a scum read.  Scum will give a scum read on a towny, then hedge, because when that person flips town, they want some wiggle room.

When would someone hedge on towncred?  Well, when you are giving your scumpartner towncred, of course.  So Voltaire looks scummy here, if I'm scum.  Problem is, I'm not scum, so I can't hold the hedge against him like I normally would.

The expert-mode hedge is possible, in that Voltaire is hedging for the purpose of appealing to those either on the fence about me or still seeing scum (i.e., TA).  I think there's only a 5% chance that this is happening here, though.

How about UoS?  He responded to TA's question, too:

In my case, that's because (and I admit this may not be true, and I never moved him beyond null-at best) my big wall post of how few contributions he'd made during the game was intended to shame him into helping more if he were actually town as some people seemed to be insisting, and perhaps drive him crazier if he were really committed to this weird gambit as scum.  In my opinion, he reacted to that as Town would (after a brief rage period, which I can understand.)

I still agree with you that a scum gambit makes perfect sense and I have no trouble believing it.  If he were to flip scum, I wouldn't be shocked.  If the Ash wagon were to get going and I had to choose between Ash and another player, I'd often choose Ash.  It makes plenty of sense for scum.

I do think people are giving him a lot of credit.  Perhaps it's my fault for starting that.  I give him credit because I think he reacted to the big-wall-of-calling-him-useless in a more towny way and got helpful with some interesting posts.  I also thought I should be careful of latching onto only one person, hence my rereading the thread and building a case on Robz, whom I think is even more scummy than Ash at this point.

I don't think your reasons are wrong, but it seemed to me that the lynch wasn't going to happen, that he'd done enough things towny to give me more doubt, and that I needed to put another option out there that I knew wasn't manipulated by scum.  I'm going to have to go back and look at things again to work out the narrative, but both the Voltaire and the Liopoil wagons seem to smell of manipulation to me.  I'm just not sure who I think is manipulating who.

UoS goes into depth about his change of heart.  He felt that there would be a difference in reactions between town!ash and scum!ash, and saw more towny.  No hedging, here, except for the bolded bits.  If UoS is scum, he's buying towncred by using the knowledge he has that I am town to look like he was scumhunting on me.  If he's town, he's doing a good job looking objectively at me.  It also looks like he could be bussing here, but again, I'm not scum, so I can disregard that.


That's my take on the two responses to TA.  Scummy-looking but actually null response from Voltaire and a reasonable one from UoS.

[yuma]

Vote Count 1.12

Meanwhile in the Kitchen The Singing Telegram Girl, Mr. Green and Yvette the Maid were searching for yuma.

"What is that smell!" said The Singing Telegram Girl as they walked onto the linoleum floor. "It smells awful."

"It is our dinner, remember... Monkey's brain soup," said Yvette the Maid.

"Monkey's brain soup! Is that what we ate?" shouted Mr. Green. "I thought we were eating Monkey Brand soup!" followed by a retching sound as he lunged toward the Kitchen sink.

After a few moments his face turned from Green to more of a Pink and he said, "Wait! What is this?"

Mr. Green turned around to the two women with a large kitchen Knife in his hand. Dripping from its handle was blood!

ashersky (2): TA, Eevee
Voltaire (4): Robz, shraeye, chairs, mcmcsalot
Robz (2): Snow, Voltaire
TA (1): ashersky
chairs (1): nkirbit

Not voting: (3) liopoil, Jimmmm, raerae

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.
Day1 Ends in 8 days. July 22nd at 10:30 a.m. forum time.

EFHW and Jorbles will be performing vote counts while mail-mi and I are VLA. Robz will be texting me during this period if any flips and locks are required.