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[Witherweaver]

Sudgy is generally more suspicious than ashersky?

He was the one about to be lynched on D1 and claimed to live.  So in this game, I think this is correct.

But you yourself started out the day saying Sudgy was basically an IC. 

[Witherweaver]

I think we need to look at the how/why/when of these claims.

We are all ignoring the VT claim, too.  Scum knows two possible T configurations.  If they are worried of the 0 or 1 T config and the dangers of a counterclaim, VT could be the "safest."

Sudgy getting a result is clearly odd.  Did someone breadcrumb that would have been more likely?

1-shot Vig is a weird one to go with.  I think it's one of the easier ones to pass off as scum.  Scum can kill, so verifying it isn't impossible.

One thing all these claims are doing is dominating the discussion.

I agree with this last statement. 

I'm kind of surprised no one had any real thoughts or additions to what I said about ADK.  His Day 1 play to me does not look like town ADK.

[ashersky]

Sudgy is generally more suspicious than ashersky?

He was the one about to be lynched on D1 and claimed to live.  So in this game, I think this is correct.

But you yourself started out the day saying Sudgy was basically an IC.

In line to board.

I felt strongly that his claim was true.  Circumstance dictates we take into consideration that I'm wrong.

He was very sincere seeming at the end of the day.  That last post is just too out of character for him.

If we want to lynch a claimed person, chairs makes more sense to me.

Or we can focus on unclaimed...there should be scum in that pool for sure.

[azadin]

Well I haven't checked in on this much over the weekend, but looks like I have a lot of catching up to do. I skimmed enough to know that for now, I will unvote. More thoughts/analysis as soon as I get the opportunity to write it all out.

[scott_pilgrim]

Sudgy is generally more suspicious than ashersky?

He was the one about to be lynched on D1 and claimed to live.  So in this game, I think this is correct.

On D1 sure, but this isn't D1 anymore, stuff has happened since then.  Particularly, a post at the end of D1 that makes sudgy look incredibly towny.

Obviously this wasn't directed at you since you know whether you are town.  I think a lot of us are confused as to why Robz is voting sudgy, and would like him to give an explanation other than "ash probably isn't the godfather, therefore sudgy is scum", since that totally ignores sudgy's super-towny post at the end of D1.

Although, I am also interested to hear what you think happened last night, because as far as I can tell, you don't agree with any of the explanations I've offered:
1. You're the godfather (obviously you won't agree with that)
2. Sudgy is scum (I think you've been saying sudgy is town all this time)
3. A town RB blocked the scum RB (you said earlier you think this is really unlikely)

So why do you think sudgy (claimed to have) got a result last night?

[ashersky]

I think it is either "sudgy is scum who fake claimed" or "scum took a huge risk."

There are few reasons to think scum doesn't roleblock there, unless they believed they picked up on a PR tell from someone else.

Anyone blocked last night could claim, I suppose.  Long shot, though.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I've thought about this for a bit and I think that if we're lynching out of the people who have claimed, I'm okay lynching Sudgy today. If he's telling the truth, well he's also used his shot, so he's just a VT now, and it gives us some info regarding ash's alignment and what scum did with the RB last night.

But, I think we're lynching out of people who haven't claimed, we should decide that soon and start discussing it. Deadline is coming up.  In that situation I would be very comfortable lynching WW. This looks like nervous scum to me:

Pretty sure everyone just throws me in on the scumlist automatically now.

He's made that kind of flippant comment as scum before, and he had an out of the blue "I'm-joking-but-not-really" comment on day one about me not saying he was scum yet. Looking over his posts it kind of seems like he's putting himself in the discussion just enough to seem present without actually driving it in a particular direction, which is something I've seen from him before. It's enough for me to

Vote: WW

[Witherweaver]

The problem with the reasoning "WW has done this as scum before, so he must be scum now," is that the statement "WW has done this as scum before" is equivalent to the statement "WW has done this while playing Mafia before".  I make a lot of flippant comments because I'm a person that makes flippant comments.  You can keep lynching me for acting like myself (yes, your track record is good), but eventually the coin flip is going to go the other way.

The comment

Looking over his posts it kind of seems like he's putting himself in the discussion just enough to seem present without actually driving it in a particular direction,

is interesting, because that's the same thing I was accusing you of.    I sense some OMGUS in this, and maybe a bit of trying to emulate town play?

[azadin]

But you are probably right.  I'd actually be open to a VT kill on purpose to help with POE.  Volunteer only, only really replaces the missing D1 lynch.

Killing off confirmed town helps with POE? You mean one of us who haven't already claimed anything? (So not chairs, even though he claimed VT already?) Because if you mean chairs or sudgy (who is basically VT now), then that doesn't really help with POE at all.

[azadin]

Looks to me like scum ash recognizing the ground is shifting against his faust case, and that he needs to do some anti-sudgy stuff in case we go that direction.

Vote: sudgy. If he's scum I'd say ashersky is also scum, if he's town, I think ashersky is definitively cleared. (Ash = Godfather would be horrible, let's just keep our fingers crossed against that.) This is a better lynch.

Not sure I agree with the sudgy vote here. If you are wondering whether ashersky is scum (though sudgy cleared him with his one shot), I'd say it's better to just lynch ashersky directly.

I know this was brought up, but I think the three most likely options are that 1) scum!sudgy is WIFOMing and is telling the truth about ashersky (that he's actually town); 2) town!sudgy is telling the truth and ashersky is actually town; 3) town!sudgy found ash the Godfather.

Of those 3, statistically, 2 is the most likely scenario. Occam's razor likes it the best too. If we take into account sudgy's extraordinarily towny behavior at the very tail end D1, I'd say scenario 2 is almost certainly correct. Assuming sudgy is town, then there is a 1/8 chance from my point of view (not me, not sudgy himself, not scott_pilgrim, and not Eevee out of the original 12) that ash is the grandfather. This is still very low.

For today, I am going to work under the assumption that both sudgy and ashersky are town, and we should find another lynch.

[azadin]

I was the major wagon, and the game was stalling. Plus, I most likely wont use my PR anyway, so why should I not claim? And it's the worst fakeclaim possible.

This may be true, but the fact that you point it out to us almost makes me think you are encouraging us to see past this as a possible scum maneuver. You may have picked the worst fake claim to specifically give us false town reads on you. It's a safe claim to make as either town OR scum, as other people have pointed out.

[azadin]

This is such a fake claim, robz is also scum and helping protect his partner, robz claiming we should just "hope ash isn't a godfather" is the most ridiculous statement...

I don't think it's ridiculous. Doesn't scum Godfather ash have some concern that town!sudgy investigates his partner, and roleblock him anyway? It's unnecessarily risky play in my book.

mcmc, are you talking about sudgy's claim being fake?

I already discussed my reasons for believing both ash and sudgy are town, and this is just another point for that. Seems like scum!ash and his scum team would not have taken the risk and roleblocked sudgy anyway. I'm still thinking about why they would do such a thing (not roleblock him)...doesn't really seem to be a good reason to NOT do so (I'm glad they didn't though! Gives us a lot to work with today)

[azadin]

This is such a fake claim, robz is also scum and helping protect his partner, robz claiming we should just "hope ash isn't a godfather" is the most ridiculous statement...

I don't think it's ridiculous. Doesn't scum Godfather ash have some concern that town!sudgy investigates his partner, and roleblock him anyway? It's unnecessarily risky play in my book.

Oh for clarification I agree with what you just said, if ash is a scum godfather, I doubt he...would have risked not blocking sudgy so if ash is scum sudgy has to be scum(or likely enough to just cross our fingers)

Okay in the middle of typing that I now understand what your saying, I still find you scummy for defending Faust but not nearly as much as before.

I think ash and sudgy are both town, no gambit.

I'm typing my thoughts as I read through the posts, and it looks like you are on the same line of thinking as me and you answered my above question. Disregard.

[mcmcsalot]

I do that too Azadin, simply confirms my town read on you.

[azadin]

I've thought about this for a bit and I think that if we're lynching out of the people who have claimed, I'm okay lynching Sudgy today. If he's telling the truth, well he's also used his shot, so he's just a VT now, and it gives us some info regarding ash's alignment and what scum did with the RB last night.

But, I think we're lynching out of people who haven't claimed, we should decide that soon and start discussing it. Deadline is coming up.  In that situation I would be very comfortable lynching WW. This looks like nervous scum to me:

Pretty sure everyone just throws me in on the scumlist automatically now.

He's made that kind of flippant comment as scum before, and he had an out of the blue "I'm-joking-but-not-really" comment on day one about me not saying he was scum yet. Looking over his posts it kind of seems like he's putting himself in the discussion just enough to seem present without actually driving it in a particular direction, which is something I've seen from him before. It's enough for me to

Vote: WW

As I was catching up, it occurred to me that everyone was fixated on the sudgy/ashersky interaction, and the faust case. We have 10 people remaining who aren't 100% confirmed (chairs, sudgy or faust could still technically be lying, though I find chairs and sudgy lying extremely unlikely). We've BARELY looked at EgorK (who appears to be absent for this whole day so far), mcmc, WW, ADK, Robz, and myself.

Let's assume chairs and sudgy are not lying, and that ash is not the godfather. This leaves faust, EgorK, mcmc, WW, ADK, and Robz as the possible scum (in my point of view). 3/6 scum. With the lack of a D1 lynch, scum is probably sitting pretty comfortably while we debate about who's lying, who's not, etc. Where is EgorK? From my perspective, it's 50% likely that he's scum assuming Occam's razor for the rest of the claims.

Granted, that reasoning means I could randomly pick any of those 6, but EgorK has been suspiciously lurky. I'm still willing to move my vote to any of them provided a good case. It's hard for me to get on board with cases based purely on "this isn't how they usually act" because I don't have that context. Logical slips, though, yes. Lurking, yes.

Vote: EgorK

[Teproc]

Vote Count 2.4

faust (2) : mcmcsalot, sudgy
A Drowned Kernel (2) : Witherweaver, Robz888
ashersky (1) : faust
EgorK (1) : azadin
Witherweaver (1) : A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (4): EgorK, scott_pilgrim, ashersky, chairs

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 07:00 PM on July 16. That's in about 36 hours.

[faust]

In order to resolve ash/sudgy, I think an ash flip is actually more informative.

If we lynch sudgy, he either flips town Cop or scum. If he flips scum, well, we have no idea if he faked a result on a scum partner or on town. If he's town, ash can still be GF.

If we lynch ashersky, he flips town or scum, and if scum, either GF or not GF. And here's the thing: If ash flips scum, and not GF, we know that sudgy is lying.

[ashersky]

In order to resolve ash/sudgy, I think an ash flip is actually more informative.

If we lynch sudgy, he either flips town Cop or scum. If he flips scum, well, we have no idea if he faked a result on a scum partner or on town. If he's town, ash can still be GF.

If we lynch ashersky, he flips town or scum, and if scum, either GF or not GF. And here's the thing: If ash flips scum, and not GF, we know that sudgy is lying.

When I flip town, you learn nothing about sudgy.  You forgot that part.

You could shoot one of us (preferably him) tonight.

[A Drowned Kernel]

...

Vote: EgorK

Snipped the quote to avoid messiness. It's worth noting that EgorK has posted that he'll be absent in the VLA thread. But I'm glad someone is giving attention to something other than Sudgy/Ashersky.

[azadin]

Ah, I must have missed that post.

[Witherweaver]

I was the major wagon, and the game was stalling. Plus, I most likely wont use my PR anyway, so why should I not claim? And it's the worst fakeclaim possible.

This may be true, but the fact that you point it out to us almost makes me think you are encouraging us to see past this as a possible scum maneuver. You may have picked the worst fake claim to specifically give us false town reads on you. It's a safe claim to make as either town OR scum, as other people have pointed out.

I'm not sure what you mean by "It's a safe claim to make as either town OR scum".. what is a town safe claim?

[azadin]

This may be true, but the fact that you point it out to us almost makes me think you are encouraging us to see past this as a possible scum maneuver. You may have picked the worst fake claim to specifically give us false town reads on you. It's a safe claim to make as either town OR scum, as other people have pointed out.

I'm not sure what you mean by "It's a safe claim to make as either town OR scum".. what is a town safe claim?

Good point, my meaning was lost. All claims are safe town claims, but some are more "confirmable" than others. A safer town claim would be one that is harder/impossible for scum to fake claim.

[scott_pilgrim]

2. ashersky - null read, but probably town based on sudgy's result
3. Robz888 - I don't like the way he's been playing, but that doesn't make him scum.  Still probably lean slight scum on him
4. faust - I think his claim was null and I thought he was scummy before, so I'm inclined to try to lynch him today.  I'm not really sure why people backed off after his claim.  We would need a lot of other PR's to claim in order to "prove" he was lying, right?  And in that case, we just know that one of the claimed PR's is lying, not necessarily faust.
5. A Drowned Kernel - Reread him just now, I think he seems similar to his other scum games, staying back and playing it safe most of the time
6. sudgy - super town read, but it may be worth lynching him because we don't know what happened last night (and one of the only plausible explanations is that he's scum), but if it's between lynching ash and sudgy I would definitely prefer ash (but I don't think we should lynch either today)
7. scott_pilgrim - town
8. Witherweaver - null, maybe I need to reread him, I don't remember anything specific from him this game
9. EgorK - seems kind of lurky but I think he's usually that way?
10. chairs - moderate town
11. mcmcsalot - null
12. azadin - town

So that leaves Robz, faust, ADK, WW, EgorK, and mcmc as lynch candidates.  I think there's ~2.5 scum in that group (the other 0.5 being the chance that ash/sudgy or one of my town reads is scum).  I think faust is the best option for today, ADK would be my second choice.

vote: faust

[ashersky]

We do need to lynch someone.  Deadline is tomorrow.

I think a newbie is scum.

[faust]

Well, this game sucks. I seem unable to convince people of ashersky, so sudgy is the next best choice.

Vote: sudgy

And scott, I think your read on me is little else but delayed OMGUS. Really, what's the case? And you're wrong, only one PR would need to claim to call out my claim as fake.