Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Robz888]

Huh?  I think the Sudgy/Ash conspiracy is less likely than Godfather-Ash leaving Sudgy alone because he expected to be investigated.

Seems like a silly and unnecessary gamble for the scum team to me.

[Witherweaver]

Huh?  I think the Sudgy/Ash conspiracy is less likely than Godfather-Ash leaving Sudgy alone because he expected to be investigated.

Seems like a silly and unnecessary gamble for the scum team to me.

Sudgy fake claiming one-shot cop and binding himself to scumbuddy Ashersky in this way seems more of a gamble to me.

Well, I didn't work though the setup thing.. is Sudgy's claim a "safe" one for scum, in the sense that they would know it couldn't be countered?

[sudgy]

Huh?  I think the Sudgy/Ash conspiracy is less likely than Godfather-Ash leaving Sudgy alone because he expected to be investigated.

Seems like a silly and unnecessary gamble for the scum team to me.

Sudgy fake claiming one-shot cop and binding himself to scumbuddy Ashersky in this way seems more of a gamble to me.

Well, I didn't work though the setup thing.. is Sudgy's claim a "safe" one for scum, in the sense that they would know it couldn't be countered?

I can't see it, looking at the setup.

I personally think faust's claim is a fakeclaim.  With my PR, I decided right away that I would claim only at L-1 (I changed when the deadline was approaching).  While faust's PR is different, you usually don't just claim like that randomly.

[Robz888]

Huh?  I think the Sudgy/Ash conspiracy is less likely than Godfather-Ash leaving Sudgy alone because he expected to be investigated.

Seems like a silly and unnecessary gamble for the scum team to me.

Sudgy fake claiming one-shot cop and binding himself to scumbuddy Ashersky in this way seems more of a gamble to me.

Well, I didn't work though the setup thing.. is Sudgy's claim a "safe" one for scum, in the sense that they would know it couldn't be countered?

Yes, it's safe. There can be more than one of stuff.

[faust]

I personally think faust's claim is a fakeclaim.  With my PR, I decided right away that I would claim only at L-1 (I changed when the deadline was approaching).  While faust's PR is different, you usually don't just claim like that randomly.

I was the major wagon, and the game was stalling. Plus, I most likely wont use my PR anyway, so why should I not claim? And it's the worst fakeclaim possible.

[mcmcsalot]

I personally think faust's claim is a fakeclaim.  With my PR, I decided right away that I would claim only at L-1 (I changed when the deadline was approaching).  While faust's PR is different, you usually don't just claim like that randomly.

I was the major wagon, and the game was stalling. Plus, I most likely wont use my PR anyway, so why should I not claim? And it's the worst fakeclaim possible.

It's not a terrible fake-claim, your never expected to produce a result, if you are counter claimed you get the vig outed and potentially still live.

Worst case scenario your fake claim outs a town pr and your lynched(which you already said would have happened, hence you claiming)

Best case scenario you are believe and safe for a loong time.

This is such a fake claim, robz is also scum and helping protect his partner, robz claiming we should just "hope ash isn't a godfather" is the most ridiculous statement...

Please people see this

[Robz888]

This is such a fake claim, robz is also scum and helping protect his partner, robz claiming we should just "hope ash isn't a godfather" is the most ridiculous statement...

I don't think it's ridiculous. Doesn't scum Godfather ash have some concern that town!sudgy investigates his partner, and roleblock him anyway? It's unnecessarily risky play in my book.

[mcmcsalot]

This is such a fake claim, robz is also scum and helping protect his partner, robz claiming we should just "hope ash isn't a godfather" is the most ridiculous statement...

I don't think it's ridiculous. Doesn't scum Godfather ash have some concern that town!sudgy investigates his partner, and roleblock him anyway? It's unnecessarily risky play in my book.

Oh for clarification I agree with what you just said, if ash is a scum godfather, I doubt he...would have risked not blocking sudgy so if ash is scum sudgy has to be scum(or likely enough to just cross our fingers)

Okay in the middle of typing that I now understand what your saying, I still find you scummy for defending Faust but not nearly as much as before.

I think ash and sudgy are both town, no gambit.

[mcmcsalot]

I think robz, Faust, and possibly ww are the scum team, throwing it out there

[Witherweaver]

Pretty sure everyone just throws me in on the scumlist automatically now.

[Robz888]

This is such a fake claim, robz is also scum and helping protect his partner, robz claiming we should just "hope ash isn't a godfather" is the most ridiculous statement...

I don't think it's ridiculous. Doesn't scum Godfather ash have some concern that town!sudgy investigates his partner, and roleblock him anyway? It's unnecessarily risky play in my book.

Oh for clarification I agree with what you just said, if ash is a scum godfather, I doubt he...would have risked not blocking sudgy so if ash is scum sudgy has to be scum(or likely enough to just cross our fingers)

Okay in the middle of typing that I now understand what your saying, I still find you scummy for defending Faust but not nearly as much as before.

I think ash and sudgy are both town, no gambit.

Hah, okay, well at least you get what I am saying. You read sincere to me, although you're totally wrong.

[Witherweaver]

Two 1-shot vigs need at least 4 Vs. Which would mean one of sudgy, me, whoever claim would be lying.

You are right again.

I believe faust here.

I'm starting to question my sudgy read, although it was very convincing.

Looks to me like scum ash recognizing the ground is shifting against his faust case, and that he needs to do some anti-sudgy stuff in case we go that direction.

Vote: sudgy. If he's scum I'd say ashersky is also scum, if he's town, I think ashersky is definitively cleared. (Ash = Godfather would be horrible, let's just keep our fingers crossed against that.) This is a better lynch.

Rethinking, this makes even less sense.  If you want to lynch Sudgy to verify Ash's alignment, why not just lynch Ash?  I don't see the point in lynching Sudgy at all, and I find the scum narrative from the pre-lynch minutes near impossible to believe.

[Robz888]

Two 1-shot vigs need at least 4 Vs. Which would mean one of sudgy, me, whoever claim would be lying.

You are right again.

I believe faust here.

I'm starting to question my sudgy read, although it was very convincing.

Looks to me like scum ash recognizing the ground is shifting against his faust case, and that he needs to do some anti-sudgy stuff in case we go that direction.

Vote: sudgy. If he's scum I'd say ashersky is also scum, if he's town, I think ashersky is definitively cleared. (Ash = Godfather would be horrible, let's just keep our fingers crossed against that.) This is a better lynch.

Rethinking, this makes even less sense.  If you want to lynch Sudgy to verify Ash's alignment, why not just lynch Ash?  I don't see the point in lynching Sudgy at all, and I find the scum narrative from the pre-lynch minutes near impossible to believe.

Because if ash does indeed flip scum godfather, I will have no idea whether sudgy is scum.

If sudgy flips town, ash is town, if he flips scum, ash is scum.

[Robz888]

Let me know how many more times I have to explain this, please. Thanks

[mcmcsalot]

Let me know how many more times I have to explain this, please. Thanks

As many times as your scum partners need to ask to distract from how scummy you all are!

[Witherweaver]

Two 1-shot vigs need at least 4 Vs. Which would mean one of sudgy, me, whoever claim would be lying.

You are right again.

I believe faust here.

I'm starting to question my sudgy read, although it was very convincing.

Looks to me like scum ash recognizing the ground is shifting against his faust case, and that he needs to do some anti-sudgy stuff in case we go that direction.

Vote: sudgy. If he's scum I'd say ashersky is also scum, if he's town, I think ashersky is definitively cleared. (Ash = Godfather would be horrible, let's just keep our fingers crossed against that.) This is a better lynch.

Rethinking, this makes even less sense.  If you want to lynch Sudgy to verify Ash's alignment, why not just lynch Ash?  I don't see the point in lynching Sudgy at all, and I find the scum narrative from the pre-lynch minutes near impossible to believe.

Because if ash does indeed flip scum godfather, I will have no idea whether sudgy is scum.

If sudgy flips town, ash is town, if he flips scum, ash is scum.

That's not even true.  At all.  If Sudgy flips town, Ash can still be Godfather.  If Sudgy flips scum, he still could have given a true Town result on Ash to gain towncred.

[Witherweaver]

Let me know how many more times I have to explain this, please. Thanks

As many times as it takes to convince yourself that you're entirely wrong?

[chairs]

Two 1-shot vigs need at least 4 Vs. Which would mean one of sudgy, me, whoever claim would be lying.

You are right again.

I believe faust here.

I'm starting to question my sudgy read, although it was very convincing.

Looks to me like scum ash recognizing the ground is shifting against his faust case, and that he needs to do some anti-sudgy stuff in case we go that direction.

Vote: sudgy. If he's scum I'd say ashersky is also scum, if he's town, I think ashersky is definitively cleared. (Ash = Godfather would be horrible, let's just keep our fingers crossed against that.) This is a better lynch.

Rethinking, this makes even less sense.  If you want to lynch Sudgy to verify Ash's alignment, why not just lynch Ash?  I don't see the point in lynching Sudgy at all, and I find the scum narrative from the pre-lynch minutes near impossible to believe.

Because if ash does indeed flip scum godfather, I will have no idea whether sudgy is scum.

If sudgy flips town, ash is town, if he flips scum, ash is scum.

If sudgy flips town, ash could still be Godfather.  Ergo, town!sudgy != town!ash.  Conversely, scum!ash if he's not Godfather = scum!sudgy, which makes ash a better lynch choice than sudgy in this equation.

[scott_pilgrim]

SP, if you weren't the UB, I'd think you were the RB really wanting to claim.

It just doesn't happen that often.  I mean, compare this to a guilty cop result.  That would be a 2/10 chance (subtract the IC, Godfather, and Cop) to catch scum.  Roleblocking the scum who roleblocked is 1/10.  Neither is all that likely, and roleblocking half as unlikely as the other.

I understand that, but that's is why I think it needs to be discussed, because all of the explanations for what happened last night are really unlikely.  I know that it's only a 1/9 chance in a vacuum, but this isn't a vacuum, we know that scum didn't roleblock sudgy last night, and there has to be an explanation for that.  And since that explanation might help us catch scum, that's why I'm so stuck on this.

I think you could actually do some kind of Bayesian thing to figure this out.  Assign confidence values (just according to your intuition) to the probability sudgy is town, the probability ash is godfather times the probability scum would not RB if ash is godfather, etc., (all of those probabilities independently of everything else that's happened in the game), and then compare the probabilities in each case.

For me, I think it's like:
sudgy is town=92%
ash is godfather (10%)*scum would choose not to RB sudgy if ash is godfather (40%)=4%
Town RB'd the scum RB=1/9*chance of town RB existing=??% (I'm too lazy to figure out the chance of a town RB existing right now, especially since I think we can have 1-shot RB's and then I would have to account for the chance that they shot last night), but I'll say ~4% for that possibility.

Obviously I don't have any solid way of calculating the chance sudgy is town or the probability scum would choose not to RB sudgy if ash is godfather.  But if those numbers are reasonable, that's like a 50% chance sudgy is scum, 25% chance ash is godfather, and 25% chance a town RB RB'd a scum RB last night.  In the third case we catch scum by having the RB claim.  Or, if everyone claims "not RB (who targeted someone last night)", then we eliminate the third possibility, and then sudgy and/or ash pretty much have to be scum.

I think that analysis is simplifying the problem a bit, because maybe scum is trying to WIFOM us into concluding sudgy or ash must be scum, or that a RB targeted scum (which would be insane foresight, but maybe it's on par with all of those other low probabilities), or heck maybe they just missed the deadline.  Maybe we should just assume that last option is a possibility and not try to draw any conclusions from it...I don't know.  I just feel like there's something there, and we're missing it.

PPE: 7

[Robz888]

Two 1-shot vigs need at least 4 Vs. Which would mean one of sudgy, me, whoever claim would be lying.

You are right again.

I believe faust here.

I'm starting to question my sudgy read, although it was very convincing.

Looks to me like scum ash recognizing the ground is shifting against his faust case, and that he needs to do some anti-sudgy stuff in case we go that direction.

Vote: sudgy. If he's scum I'd say ashersky is also scum, if he's town, I think ashersky is definitively cleared. (Ash = Godfather would be horrible, let's just keep our fingers crossed against that.) This is a better lynch.

Rethinking, this makes even less sense.  If you want to lynch Sudgy to verify Ash's alignment, why not just lynch Ash?  I don't see the point in lynching Sudgy at all, and I find the scum narrative from the pre-lynch minutes near impossible to believe.

Because if ash does indeed flip scum godfather, I will have no idea whether sudgy is scum.

If sudgy flips town, ash is town, if he flips scum, ash is scum.

That's not even true.  At all.  If Sudgy flips town, Ash can still be Godfather.  If Sudgy flips scum, he still could have given a true Town result on Ash to gain towncred.

Oh, okay more times. Yes ash could be the godfather but that's a one in whatever chance, very small, less than a lot of other things, so I'm discounting it for now.

[Witherweaver]

Yet you're considering it for the case where Ash's alignment doesn't indicate Sudgy's:

Because if ash does indeed flip scum godfather, I will have no idea whether sudgy is scum.

If sudgy flips town, ash is town, if he flips scum, ash is scum.

It can't work one way and not the other.

[Robz888]

When someone has an innocent result on someone else, and they have no more shots, and that person is the generally more suspicious one, and you want to figure out what is going on between the two of them, you lynch that one.

[scott_pilgrim]

Sudgy is generally more suspicious than ashersky?

[ashersky]

Sudgy is generally more suspicious than ashersky?

He was the one about to be lynched on D1 and claimed to live.  So in this game, I think this is correct.

[ashersky]

I think we need to look at the how/why/when of these claims.

We are all ignoring the VT claim, too.  Scum knows two possible T configurations.  If they are worried of the 0 or 1 T config and the dangers of a counterclaim, VT could be the "safest."

Sudgy getting a result is clearly odd.  Did someone breadcrumb that would have been more likely?

1-shot Vig is a weird one to go with.  I think it's one of the easier ones to pass off as scum.  Scum can kill, so verifying it isn't impossible.

One thing all these claims are doing is dominating the discussion.