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[ashersky]

After Day 2, I guess my reads go to:

witherweaver > sudgy > Hydrad (only slightly)

[ashersky]

On a side note...the night kill choices.

faust was strong town on D1, sensible.  EgorK on N2...he had one post on D2 where he mentioned Awaclus seeming scummy from D1.  Maybe they were trying to dodge protection?  They didn't know if Seprix's shot was used up so they could assume the UB had one.

[ashersky]

Why would mafia kill all of the off wagon people?  Maybe they were on and are trying to make Awaclus seem scummy.

sudgy's subtle defense of Awaclus on D3 -- this was after I claimed and made the point about off-wagon folks.

[ashersky]

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.

How?

OMGUSing, then being like "oh crap, I OMGUSed" and unvoting.

You're forgetting that there was a claim there and it changed things. In retrospect, I guess it should have been obvious that he had a PR which is why he knew that chairs wasn't scum, but at the time, it just felt pretty weird that he would initiate the wagon on me when his evidence for my scumminess was, from my perspective, completely wrong. This is why I originally voted for ashersky. Then he claimed, and suddenly his evidence was apparently correct, so even though the conclusion everyone is drawing from it is still wrong, it makes sense so I don't think it's scummy.

This is all not so convincing.

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.

But anyway, I agree that town!Awaclus would have been doing more.. that was kind of my point above.

Though, it not being a slam dunk case makes me doubt it slightly more.  As far as fake claims go, it's rather convenient, because if he does turn out town, you're not really culpable.  You still have to argue for two mislynches on wagon, though (or one if you bus).

I don't really find you scummy this game, though, so I'm not inclined to think that.

Two posts where WW subtly defends Awaclus, too.

[ashersky]

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.

I think either ADK or silverspawn is likely one of them (which is what I said earlier), but it's unlikely that they're both scum. The other one has to be you or Hydrad, but I don't really find either of you very scummy.

Fun!  He lists four of the six remaining alive.  He's trying nail down the "two" scum on-wagon, while knowing there is one.  So what's he doing?

He says either ADK or silverspawn (and we know ADK is town), then either WW or Hydrad.  He doesn't mention sudgy at all.

[ashersky]

So I reread Awaclus, halfway through Day 1 I was ready to come back and hammer him (it was mostly full of fluff and setup stuff), but his actions at the end of Day 1 didn't seem all that scummy.  He got on Joseph's wagon at around spot 3, unvoted after Joseph claimed, and pretty much refused to go for Joseph again.  Generally, partners are a little bit more hedgey.. they want the option to jump on the wagon for the town cred.  On the other hand, Awaclus could be going for a more blatant scum strategy: don't lynch your partner no matter what.

He was away for deadline, which can happen, but there is also scum motivation to do so (it's hard to be around and make arguments for mislynches; it can end up blowing up in your face). 

I know there is Ash's case, too.  Can other people reread and share thoughts? 

For reference, Awaclus' voting history:

Day 1:

Hydrad (RVS)
Seprix
Faust
Joseph
(Unvote)
Faust
Sudgy
EgorK
Seprix
Faust (joke vote)
Seprix

Day 2:
Seprix

Day 3:
Ashersky
(Unvote)

Another post of WW defending Awaclus.

[ashersky]

On the other hand (well, the same other hand as before), Awaclus' vote for Egor comes at Joseph at 4 votes and Egor at 2 votes.  Everyone else had at most 1 vote.  Could be trying to start up an alternative wagon to his partner.

In that line of thinking, Silver posts up a pretty long case against Seprix (here) when it's 4-4 Joseph-Egor.  Awaclus immediately follows.

To be fair, followed up with some doubting.

[ashersky]

And then he hammered a day later.

And that's all of D3.  Prior to the hammer, we had sudgy saying he was warming up to an Awaclus lynch and would hammer later.

[ashersky]

Day 4 is basically the claims.

ADK was not counterclaimed as UB, so he's 100% confirmed as town.

No one else made a claim that can be confirmed as true or false.  Nothing out of the ordinary there.

Witherweaver is the only other PR claim.  I find his targets suspect.  The faust thing is fine, obviously, strongman is definitely in the game, even if only 1-shot.  But I don't see the ADK reads.  He quickhammered town on D2!  Witherweaver knows that scum won't NK the quickhammerer -- that's a possible mislynch for sure.  He also never professed a townread on ADK during the game.  And the only thing to happen between N1 and N2 was ADK's actions on D2, which again would not make him a likely NK candidate.

On N3, not realizing chairs or myself was the best protection target is very unlike town!ww, who I think actually thinks things through.  He was town player of the year, right?

[ashersky]

So...what's the vote count?

It's possible witherweaver had terrible reads and didn't put much thought into his night actions...but that's not the town!witherweaver that I know.  The re-read clearly paints him in the worst light.

Again, I'm sure silverspawn is town based on my re-read.  ADK is confirmed by claim.

If it isn't witherweaver, it's between sudgy and hydrad.

[Witherweaver]

Well, I was pretty wrong most of this game.. I thought Joseph was town, voted him to avoid no lynch.  I was leaning scum on Awaclus, and then on reread thought scum wouldn't behave like he did days 1 and 2.  What convinced me to vote for him was he giving up attitude all throughout his wagon.


I can't really begrudge the case against me... I was essentially defending scum and then voted for them.   Though I was around pushing for Joseph to get lynched at the end of Day 1 and hammered Awaclus, so that would be quite the epic bus.


Hydrad reads town to me, FYI.

PPE: like 12, went afk

[ashersky]

witherweaver (1): sudgy
sudgy (2):  silverspawn, hydrad

Not Voting (3): A Drowned Kernel, Witherweaver, Ashersky

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day 4 will be Sunday, January 18 at 6:30 pm forum time.

That should be accurate.

[ashersky]

Well, I was pretty wrong most of this game.. I thought Joseph was town, voted him to avoid no lynch.  I was leaning scum on Awaclus, and then on reread thought scum wouldn't behave like he did days 1 and 2.  What convinced me to vote for him was he giving up attitude all throughout his wagon.


I can't really begrudge the case against me... I was essentially defending scum and then voted for them.   Though I was around pushing for Joseph to get lynched at the end of Day 1 and hammered Awaclus, so that would be quite the epic bus.


Hydrad reads town to me, FYI.

PPE: like 12, went afk

This sounds like the "giving up attitude" you said Awaclus had.

[Witherweaver]

So...what's the vote count?

It's possible witherweaver had terrible reads and didn't put much thought into his night actions...but that's not the town!witherweaver that I know.  The re-read clearly paints him in the worst light.

Again, I'm sure silverspawn is town based on my re-read.  ADK is confirmed by claim.

If it isn't witherweaver, it's between sudgy and hydrad.

PPE: 2

Keep in mind I was legitimately gone most of Day 1. 

Also, scum puts a lot more thought into making sure their night actions look perfect for a fake claim than town does choosing them.  If I were fake claiming, I'd say I protected you, or Chairs and the kill just went through with Strongman.

[Witherweaver]

Well, I was pretty wrong most of this game.. I thought Joseph was town, voted him to avoid no lynch.  I was leaning scum on Awaclus, and then on reread thought scum wouldn't behave like he did days 1 and 2.  What convinced me to vote for him was he giving up attitude all throughout his wagon.


I can't really begrudge the case against me... I was essentially defending scum and then voted for them.   Though I was around pushing for Joseph to get lynched at the end of Day 1 and hammered Awaclus, so that would be quite the epic bus.


Hydrad reads town to me, FYI.

PPE: like 12, went afk

This sounds like the "giving up attitude" you said Awaclus had.

No, Awaclus didn't make any effort to find scum.

[Witherweaver]

Day 4 is basically the claims.

ADK was not counterclaimed as UB, so he's 100% confirmed as town.

No one else made a claim that can be confirmed as true or false.  Nothing out of the ordinary there.

Witherweaver is the only other PR claim.  I find his targets suspect.  The faust thing is fine, obviously, strongman is definitely in the game, even if only 1-shot.  But I don't see the ADK reads.  He quickhammered town on D2!  Witherweaver knows that scum won't NK the quickhammerer -- that's a possible mislynch for sure.  He also never professed a townread on ADK during the game.  And the only thing to happen between N1 and N2 was ADK's actions on D2, which again would not make him a likely NK candidate.

On N3, not realizing chairs or myself was the best protection target is very unlike town!ww, who I think actually thinks things through.  He was town player of the year, right?

Pretty sure I stated a town read on ADK early on.  Him hammering Seprix made it stronger.. Scum!ADK doesn't make that play, I think.  Scum probably sees this, too, so he's a good night kill choice.

Night 3 was a mistake not thinking through Chairs.  I make those.

[Teproc]

Vote Count 4.2

sudgy (2): silverspawn, Hydrad
Witherweaver (1): sudgy

Not Voting (3): A Drowned Kernel, Witherweaver, Ashersky

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

The deadline for Day 4 will be Sunday, January 18 at 6:30 pm forum time.

[Hydrad]

Hmm interesting reread but thanks for doing it. I didn't notice all the ww stuff. My biggest worry though is that since it's not mylo yet do we want to lynch a possible doctor? If he saves someone in the night we get a extra lynch. If he's scum we can lynch him tomorrow.

[Witherweaver]

I think the most likely case if Ash is town is full strongman, so I'm not that useful. 

[Hydrad]

I think the most likely case if Ash is town is full strongman, so I'm not that useful.

Ah that makes more sense then.

[Witherweaver]

Also given that kill went through Night 1.  If not from a Roleblock, why use 1-shot so early?

[ashersky]

I think the most likely case if Ash is town is full strongman, so I'm not that useful.

It's more likely that the strongman was 1-shot, just based on possible permutations.

Also given that kill went through Night 1.  If not from a Roleblock, why use 1-shot so early?

Good point.  Probably because you aren't a Doctor.

vote: witherweaver

The re-read points to you, your claim doesn't add up to me.  You had a claimed cop and his town result to choose from.  Inconceivable to me that town!WW doesn't protect there.

[Hydrad]

vote: ww also L-1 I believe

[Witherweaver]

I think the most likely case if Ash is town is full strongman, so I'm not that useful.

It's more likely that the strongman was 1-shot, just based on possible permutations.

Also given that kill went through Night 1.  If not from a Roleblock, why use 1-shot so early?

Good point.  Probably because you aren't a Doctor.

vote: witherweaver

The re-read points to you, your claim doesn't add up to me.  You had a claimed cop and his town result to choose from.  Inconceivable to me that town!WW doesn't protect there.

How does scum!WW choosing the non-sensible fake claim choice make any more sense?

Think this through.

[Witherweaver]

vote: ww also L-1 I believe

Slow down there buddy.