Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Robz888]

What I'm mosting saying is that if Robz wants to go down his "There can't possibly be MU left" line of arguments, then killing liopoil leaves him and one other possible Maquis, and killing ash leaves him and two other possible Maquis.

But I'm not convinced of that anymore. You convinced me.

[yuma]

Okay so here's the scenario that's forming in my head:

The MU team was Galz, mcmc, Robz. Robz was, in fact, a 1-shot Tracker, like he said, thus it was a safe claim for him. Maybe he's even a full Tracker, but of course claiming 1-shot that's been used makes him unlikely to be nightkilled. After he lost one partner and looked like losing another, he decided the best thing to do was to claim and say he Tracked mcmc. Maybe he actually tracked me or someone, I don't know. He figured that scum generally want to claim late, so claiming early gives him Town cred, and he can definitely give Town cred to mcmc as well. And of course it worked. Later on the time came to bus mcmc, and so of course he did that, since lynching mcmc is what Town Robz would have done.
Then we get to last night. On the one hand Robz doesn't want to kill ash, because of ash's Town read on him. But maybe he can use that to his advantage. Robz' plan is to make it seem impossible that there can be a third MU, so he can't be critiqued for his interaction with mcmc. But if he argues that, then having ash around is a problem. ash can't be Maquis, so saying there can't be MU left makes ash, plus whoever he investigated an "IC". He was unlikely to investigate Robz because of his Town read on him, so killing liopoil means there will most likely be two confirmed non-Maquis, so Robz arguing that there has to be a Maquis left will put it to a 50/50 between him and either me or yuma. So of course he kills ash. He loses the benefit of having ash around saying he's Town, but he gets the benefit of having a confirmed Town who said he was Town, and someone died who Robz "surely" wouldn't've killed, and he can now go ahead with his "There has to be a Maquis" plan more safely.

I feel like I have suggested almost this exact idea a couple of times, but it is nice to see that someone else is thinking the same thing.

[Robz888]

You're wrong, you're wrong, you're wrong, and we're going to lose.

[jotheonah]

In his ready room on the Starship Enterprise, Captain Picard thinks back to the first time he met Benjamin Sisko. He seemed like such a competent officer. Hard to imagine he let the situation go so far to hell, and also that he defected to the Maquis.

"Picard to Riker. How long until we reach the Bajoran system, Number One?"

"Another couple of hours, sir."

"Acknowledged. Hopefully we'll still find a station there when we arrive."

Vote Count 6.2

No Lynch (1): Robz888
Not Voting (3): yuma, liopoil, Jimmmmm
With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.
Deadline is March 4th at 8 am, forum time. That's in 5 days including a weekend, people.

[liopoil]

Yuma!

D1

I think I will vote: mcmcsalot for this, but also for first finding the eevee case strong; 2. attempting to cast me as a potential scum partner for defending it but then ignoring all the others who defended it. 3. and then turning on Jimmm once it was apparent that the eevee wagon was going nowhere. Making a case on a bad case builder is a safe route for scum to go.

his first vote of the game, on MU scum. Robz's first vote was on MU too, but that was RVS, this isn't.

now that is the sort of Day 1 case that I understand and can get behind. It isn't trying to make something out of nothing. (well it is because it is making a case out of lack of posts, but you know what I mean...) vote: glooble

He doesn't interact with the scum much D1, but there is this, and later this:

blah... well I am kinda disappointed in the reaction to glooble's reaction. It was just too easy.... I personally want to hear more from Glooble

And as we know he continues this scumread on glooble the whole way. He also says a few of the other cases aren't as good, so he really is saying that the glooble lynch is his most preffered lynch.

3. some members of town haven't yet had input (robz, mcmc) and I would like them to do so...

...how do you know Robz and Mcmc are town?  Scum slip?

... whether or not they are members of "station" or "marquies" I still want to hear from them. And regardless of alignment they are still members of "the town" in this imaginary game world they live side by side with the rest of us and have a voice and a vote.

Oh... and Galz too hasn't weighed in yet

This has been mentioned as a scum slip for yuma being MU, and it actually is kinda bad. I really believe the marquis-maquis thing was a legit error, and that combined with his interaction with glooble make me think he isn't maquis, but I think there is something to him being MU.

Very little interaction with galzria, mcmc, and munch D1. That's scummy I think.

D2

--galzria anaylsis--

It's very interesting actually, I suggest you read it, but it is a bit long to quote in full. I think scum would tend not to interact too much with their partners. galz-mcmc didn't and glooble-munch didn't. He says that he doesn't think it is mcmc because he had a townread on him.

just found this quote from Glooble:

I have fairly strong townreads on Galz and shraeye at the moment (and obviously myself.) Of course, if you (this is refering to Cuzz) flip town, I will be suspicious of them. But first we need to see a flip."

after Cuzz was lynched, but before thread lock and flip...

This is interesting. (because I am more interested in finding Galz's partner, I am paying more attention to the galz part of this, but the fact that Glooble included shraeye in this is interesting)

1. Assuming here that Glooble is scum and on the scum team with Galz.
2. Neither Glooble nor Galz would know what the alignment of Cuzz was--he very well could have been opposing scum.
3. Glooble expresses a town read on Galz if Cuzz flips scum, but a potential scum read on Galz if Cuzz flips scum.
4. This is a win/win for Glooble!partner with Galz. Because if Cuzz is scum, he can now safely have a town read on his partner that won't be especially scrutinized. But if Cuzz is town, he can start a bussread on his partner, again w/o much scrutiny...

So I guess the question is this: would scum!Glooble express a strong town read on his partner? Now I guess he is actually expressing more of a scum read than a town read. Because from scum!Glooble's perspective, Cuzz was more likely to flip town--as scum!Glooble would know that Cuzz wasn't on a scum team with him, so even though he didn't know Cuzz's alignment, he suspected that Cuzz was perhaps more likely to flip town, so his read while potentially strong town was actually more setup to be a scum read...

I think Galzparner!Glooble could write something like this.

Personally I think that quote points to glooble being MAQUIS, not MU. It would make sense that glooble would want to kill galzria from this. But I can see galzpartner!Yuma wanting to make it look like someone else is galz's partner. This also makes absolutely no sense if yuma is maquis.

I think right now I am leaning toward an mcmc vote or a glooble vote...

He mentions mcmc along with glooble a lot... but usually it is with glooble being slightly more suspicious... he does end up voting mcmc though, so hmmmmm.....

--mcmc analysis--

Makes a bunch of good points about why mcmc is scummy. Very risky to do if he is on a team with him that already lost a member. But maybe he thought mcmc wouldn't get lynched anyway. Since he's losing if he's MU maybe taking risks is okay.

--Glooble analysis--

I think that this post could be written by Maquis!yuma. The case definatly isn't as good as the one on mcmc, and he then votes for mcmc. However, that isn't to say that this post sounds like maquis!yuma. Really, these cases on glooble and mcmc are very towny.

He constantly re-iterates his top two scumreads are glooble and mcmc. He never thinks that anyone else is scum. He made good cases on both. Would Yuma make a full case on his partner that had real merit to it on D2?? It doesn't seem worth it to me.

D3

--response to glooble defense--

glooble and Yuma have a big back and forth discussion. I'm feeling like if Yuma is scum then he is MU. Another thing: if yuma is maquis then the nokill N4 is even more confusing, because he doesn't have a different night action to take like, say, maquis Jimmmmmm might. (jailkeep yuma.), unless he isn't a LR. I think he is a LR though, because that's a bad fakeclaim.

He later backs off glooble a bit and switches to Jimmmmm. He doesn't mention mcmc much, but defends his claim. When the glooble wagon materializes he switches back to glooble.

D4

I am a 1-shot Lightning Rod. I have not yet used my power because I think it is a negative utility to town. Yes it would prevent one less death at night, but thus far that would have been bad because we have had scum dying at night, but more importantly it would effectively cause both cop investigations to be nullified. I doubt I will be using it this game because of this... so it is a pretty weak power role. But joth did say that some roles would have a negative utility.

If he is scum that helps balance the third team. immideatly explains why he hasn't LRed yet.

o and I am Elim Garak?

Yuma, how does Elim Garak relate to being a lightning rod? I think Robz has answered this question already.... but I think all four of us should say why again. For me: Rom is a ferengi, and is a blood relative to quark and nog, who are raerae and munch respectively.

I talked to joth day 1 about LR. He said that the LR could be stopped from activating by a couple of roles that I asked specifically about--I won't say which ones specifically, but I will say that nothing that has been claimed is capable of stopping it.

I think you should tell us now yuma!

well if I can't get theorel on board, I'll go back to vote: dsell

This is soon after Robz votes dsell to put him as L-2. in the next post, 19minutes later, MU mcmc hammers. This isn't exactly a quickhammer because the day had been played out and some people were ready for a hammer. however, theorel still hadn't said definitively that yuma should LR (I think), and we had lots of time and things to discuss. scummy.....

D5
At first seems resigned that he is going to be lynched, but then argues against it (which is protown if he is town I guess).

well I will join our IC in voting vote: Robz

redirection. I'm not sure why I didn't consider Yuma more then. Maybe I just thought Robz could so easily be a JK, and at that point it made sense that there was just a MU left (because only theorel died).

It became clear soon that it was going to be mcmc or him. the thing to do with either allignment is to vote mcmc, so I don't think this is much of a defense.

D6

Nothing of importance today except these two:

Yuma has consistently throughout the entire game spelled "maquis" , "marquis" instead.

I noticed that, and had no idea what to make of it.

That is embarrassing... I thought it was "marquis" as in French for nobility. I really know nothing about star trek. What does maquis mean? It must mean something because Google Chrome doesn't even want to auto-correct it... Oh it is also French for "a member of a movement, specifically the one against Germany in WWII.

Again, I don't think he could fake this, or would fake this. He would be sure to slip and spell it right without thinking right? So the question is if he could not know how to spell his team name.

GUYS!!!!!!!!  I made a horrible, horrible, horrible mistake.

Night4 I didn't use my LR because I didn't send in the PM to jotheonah. I did however send in a PM to jtotheonah, which I don't think he checks!!! I just noticed this as I was skimming through my sent posts to find another post for another game. So I believe I still have a 1-shot LR available to use.

Ugggg!!!!!!! I feel horrible. I mean that stupid mistake could easily cost us the game. (it would have prevented theorel's death, although I would be dead right now). I can't even tell you how mad I am right now!

8 minutes after his last post. It is very possible that he went and saw it, and wrote this post in that time span, but you could also say that he just made another post right after that because he was scum and faking. It did come at a very convienient time for him. I'm wondering though: how is it that he made this mistake? typo in typing in the name?

Theoretically he could also be lying as town. It would make sense. Either way he is willing to do anything to avoid being lynched, because he loses if he is lynched, regardless of alignment.

Summary: I think Yuma as maquis is very unlikely. Yuma as MU is probably the most likely scenario.

[liopoil]

thinking about copying all my analysis into one big big post. Would that be obnoxiously large though? or convenient?

[liopoil]

I saw somewhere that joth said he gave the speccy QT setup info. Man, I can't wait to see the speccy once this is over...

[Jimmmmm]

I saw somewhere that joth said he gave the speccy QT setup info. Man, I can't wait to see the speccy once this is over...

Yeah, they're probably laughing their asses off at us.

[Jimmmmm]

Summary: I think Yuma as maquis is very unlikely. Yuma as MU is probably the most likely scenario.

The most likely scenario if yuma is scum, or the most likely scenario out of everything?

[liopoil]

there are five scenarios:

yuma is maquis
yuma is MU
Robz is maquis
Robz is MU
Jimmmmm is Maquis,

Of these five, Yuma being MU I currently think is the most likely.

[yuma]

Of these five, Yuma being MU I currently think is the most likely.

I don't get it. You think that it is more likely that I am partners with mcmc/Galz than Robz?

Let me have you take a closer look at day2, which I think is the essential day to analyze when considering these two scenarios.

1. If I were MU would I willingly push mcmc to a lynch day2 just after having lost my other partner in Galz? I was the third vote on mcmc's wagon at a time when there was another viable wagon in shraeye and over another option in glooble. No! That would be suicidal. There is very little chance to win at that point. You say it is worth being risky at this point since MU is already behind. Again I say, no! The route to go there is to not be risky, but to play preventative and keep your team alive.

2. If Robz were MU would he willingly prevent the lynch of his partner just after having lost his other partner? Yes! That would be essential to keeping the MU team alive for a win. You might argue that it is obvious scum play. But as theorel has said over and over again, obvious play is obvious play. And it worked! Mcmc wasn't lynched and robz gained town credit because of it. But remember robz prevented the lynch of a confirmed scum. Whereas I was on the wagon of that confirmed scum.

Which of us is more likely to be MU? Somehow you think it is me. I think--and I believe that Jimmmmm agrees--that it is actually Robz that is more likely to be MU. Jimmmm how do you view these scenarios?

[liopoil]

Here is what has to be true for each of those scenarios:

Yuma is maquis:

-teams are rolecop/bomb Vs. neighbor/1-shot roleblocker/1-shot lightning rod
-Yuma either doesn't know how to spell his team name or fakes not knowing how to spell it.
-Yuma didn't kill anyone N4
-Yuma lied about accidentally sending PM to Jtotheonah instead of jotheonah
-Galzria did the maquis kill N1
-Yuma actively pushed his teammates lynch

Yuma is MU:

-teams are rolecop/bomb/1-shot lightning rod Vs. neighbor/1-shot roleblocker. Remember the neighborhood.
-Yuma killed ashersky N5
-yuma lied about accidentally sending PM to Jtotheonah instead of jotheonah
-Yuma made a case on his partner, mcmc, and had a strong scumread on him at a point.
-Galzria or yuma did the MU kill N1

Robz is Maquis:

-teams are rolecop/bomb Vs. neighbor/1-shot roleblocker/1-shot tracker
-Robz killed nobody N4
-Robz claimed D2 and gave acquitting evidence to mcmc.
-chose his teammate over me to be the lynch D3.
-Galzria did the MU kill N1

Robz is MU:

-teams are rolecop/bomb/??? maybe tracker Vs. neighbor/1-shot roleblocker. remember the neighborhood.
-Robz killed ashersky N5
-interacted a ton with one of his partners D1.

Jimmmmm is Maquis:

-teams are rolecop/bomb Vs neighbor/1-shot roleblocker/???
-breadcrumbed fakeclaim from very beginning
-killed nobody N4

I'm almost certainly forgetting quite a few things from these lists. anything to add?

[yuma]

Robz is MU:

-teams are rolecop/bomb/??? maybe tracker Vs. neighbor/1-shot roleblocker. remember the neighborhood.
-Robz killed ashersky N5
-interacted a ton with one of his partners D1.

I just said this above, but you are leaving off a crucial piece in that Robz as MU stopped the lynch of his partner in mcmc with a tracking result.

[liopoil]

robz's claim makes sense as something he would do as MU AND as town, so little can be gleamed from it. He was also later on the mcmc wagon, but that was at the very end when the lynch was probably unpreventable.

I said risky makes sense because even if you can stay alive by playing it safe you probably aren't going to win. Anyway, it's WIFOM. You could have doe it just so you could say that now.

[Robz888]

Yuma doesn't have to be lightning rod or not be lightning rod, and his Jo PM thing could be a lie, regardless of him being scum.

[yuma]

8 minutes after his last post. It is very possible that he went and saw it, and wrote this post in that time span, but you could also say that he just made another post right after that because he was scum and faking. It did come at a very convienient time for him. I'm wondering though: how is it that he made this mistake? typo in typing in the name?

These are good questions.... I saw the mistake when I was quoting a post count that I sent to myself for another game. I first responded to something in this thread and then moved over to MXX. But when I saw my mistake I quickly came back over and posted about it.

I am not sure how the mistake was made. It was a few weeks ago. But my hypothesis is that when I send a message I normally type in the first few letters of a name and then pick from the list that appears. So I am guessing that I typed in "jto" rather than "jot" and selected the name jtotheonah when it appeared and didn't even notice it until later.

[yuma]

robz's claim makes sense as something he would do as MU AND as town, so little can be gleamed from it. He was also later on the mcmc wagon, but that was at the very end when the lynch was probably unpreventable.

But you can say that about anything!!! According to you as scum I would have pushed for a mcmc lynch. As town I would have been scum hunting--and successfully might I add. So nothing can be gleamed from this either!

[liopoil]

you are less likely to push the mcmc lynch as scum. That is a mark in your favor.

[liopoil]

one of the main things is that everything makes much much more sense if Yuma is maquis. pushing the lynch on mcmc is actually the biggest things that doesn't fit.

[yuma]

you are less likely to push the mcmc lynch as scum. That is a mark in your favor.

But what I am saying is this?

What is more likely?

That I as MU would push for the lynch of a partner while already a man down from a NK?

Or

That Robz as scum would prevent a lynch of a partner while already a man down from a NK?

To me it seems that the better answer is Robz, because losing two partners by day2 isn't winnable. Whereas saving a partner still keeps the chances of winning alive.

[Robz888]

I actually think the scummiest thing about yuma is his overall behavior, especially today. I feel like he basically remained more or less insistent on voting for me the whole time. Which like, I know I'm the only person who knows for sure that that's bad, but the rest of us have all changed are mind a lot--a reflection of how truly hard this is, I think. Yuma just wants to get someone--me--lynched and take home his scum win.

[liopoil]

Yuma is MU:

-teams are rolecop/bomb/1-shot lightning rod Vs. neighbor/1-shot roleblocker. Remember the neighborhood.
-Yuma killed ashersky N5
-yuma lied about accidentally sending PM to Jtotheonah instead of jotheonah
-Yuma made a case on his partner, mcmc, and had a strong scumread on him at a point.
-Galzria or yuma did the MU kill N1

-The teams are balanced. 1-shot lightning rod is TERRIBLE, and then there's the neighborhood.
-killing ashersky makes sense for MU Yuma N5
-The more I think about it the more I doubt the legitimacy of the mix-up. Though as robz says, you could have lied here as town.
-Not all-acquitting, but the best point in his favor.
-explains the tracker result.

[liopoil]

the second one is more likely of course. But that is not the only thing. for instance:

Who is more likely to kill ashersky N5? MU robz or MU yuma? and the answer is MU yuma.

[Robz888]

you are less likely to push the mcmc lynch as scum. That is a mark in your favor.

But what I am saying is this?

What is more likely?

That I as MU would push for the lynch of a partner while already a man down from a NK?

Or

That Robz as scum would prevent a lynch of a partner while already a man down from a NK?

To me it seems that the better answer is Robz, because losing two partners by day2 isn't winnable. Whereas saving a partner still keeps the chances of winning alive.

I agree that my Day 2 actions are pretty damn scummy.

But about you "pushing" mcmc... let's be real here. Scum push their partners. In some games I feel like scum push their own partners more than they do townies. It has to be more than just a push to really count for something.

[yuma]

I actually think the scummiest thing about yuma is his overall behavior, especially today. I feel like he basically remained more or less insistent on voting for me the whole time. Which like, I know I'm the only person who knows for sure that that's bad, but the rest of us have all changed are mind a lot--a reflection of how truly hard this is, I think. Yuma just wants to get someone--me--lynched and take home his scum win.

but that isn't even true! I was highly considering Jimmmmm as the remaining scum early in the day. But after actually looking at the facts I came to the conclusion that he has a less of a chance of being scum than you. I mean, evidence aside. He can't be MU, you can. And I am not even going to consider lio being Godfather. Sorry, but I am not.... Furthermore, when you add in the evidence I think it points significantly toward you. So, yes I am pushing for you lynch because I think you are the remaining scum.