Dominion Strategy Forum
Miscellaneous => Forum Games => Mafia Game Threads => Topic started by: ashersky on October 28, 2014, 05:42:45 pm
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Welcome to Newbie Mafia 7: Fish Mafia!
This is a mafia game suitable for new players. Only 9 players will be able to play, and priority will be given to sign-ups in the following order:
1. Players who have never played a game before (denoted with an asterisk).
2. Players who have played very few (<5) games (the fewer the games, the higher the priority).
3. Exactly two veteran players are assured spots, to help the newbies. The first two veterans to sign up are in.
Mods: ashersky, scott_pilgrim
Player List:
1. Awaclus* - Great White Shark, the Mafia Roleblocker - WINS!
2. Hugovj* - Lionfish, a Vanilla Townie, lynched on Day 3
3. mpsprs* - Wahoo, a Vanilla Townie, Killed on Night 1
4. xxpittip* - Bluefin Tuna, a Vanilla Townie, Lynched on Day 1
5. silverspawn - Salmon Shark, the Mafia Goon - WINS!
6. Hydrad
7. Qvist - Aholehole, the Town Jailkeeper, Lynched on Day 2
8. (veteran spot) A Drowned Kernel
9. (veteran spot) AndrewisFTTW - Stonefish, a Vanilla Townie, Killed on Night 2
Setup to follow in Post 2.
Day Start/End:
D1: Start (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434385#msg434385) || End (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg437558#msg437558)
D2: Start (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg438300#msg438300) || End (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg440342#msg440342)
D3: Start (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg441255#msg441255)
ashersky's Mafia Ruleset
The Golden Rule:
This is a game. Everyone who signs up to play must be considerate of each other, never get personal, and focus on having fun. Once the game starts, having signed up is a commitment: inactivity is just as inconsiderate as rude comments. Read The Civility Pledge (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=7695.0) before signing up for this game. If you have not /pledged there, you cannot play here.
The Standard Rules:
1. No communication between players outside of the game thread or QTs at any time. This includes passing references, jokes, or cases in other games or threads.
2. If the game thread or QT is locked, do not post. If you are unsure if something is locked, ask the mod by PM.
3. Direct or verbatim quoting of mod-provided information is strictly forbidden. Paraphrasing is okay.
4. Town night actions must be submitted by PM to the mod within 24 hours of day's end. The most recent order will always be valid.
5. Scum night actions must be submitted in QT within 24 hours of day's end. Any team member may submit all night actions. The most recent order(s) will always be valid.
6. Players must post once every 24 hours.
7. Do not edit or delete posts, ever. If you need to clarify or correct something, post again.
8. Invisible text, font size less than 8, and spoiler tags are not allowed.
9. Cryptography is not allowed.
10. The time between a lynch being reached and a flip being provided is called twilight. All players may continue posting during this time, including the lynched player.
11. Dead players may not post in thread or QT. A lynched player is not "dead" until a flip has been provided.
The Voting Rules:
1. Votes should be in this format: Vote: Playername. Unambigiuous nicknames are acceptable.
2. Unvotes should be in this format: unvote or Unvote: Playername.
3. Unvotes are not required if changing your vote from one player to another.
4. You may vote: no lynch if you prefer.
5. Lynches occur when a simple majority (rounded up) of living players is reached. Once reached, a lynch cannot be undone.
The Deadlines:
1. Days will last seven consecutive 24-hour periods.
2. Nights will last two consecutive 24-hour periods.
3. Adjustments may be made to ensure days do not start or end on a Friday or Saturday.
The Rest:
1. Bold, maroon (or purple) text is reserved for the Mod(s). Players may not use them.
2. If you have an issue or problem with the game, please PM the Mod. Do not post complaints in the game thread.
3. Mods make mistakes - please point them out gently. If they can be corrected, they will. If irreversible, they will stand as final to be commiserated over after the game.
4. If a mod error disadvantages one faction greatly, the game may be called off.
5. Bold all in-thread Mod questions and requests so that they don’t get missed.
6. Prods of inactive players will be issued automatically after 48 hours. A prodded player has 12 hours to respond or risks replacement.
7. Players may request a prod after 24 hours without a post.
8. A player who has been prodded 3 times is subject to replacement without further notice.
9. In reference to 6-8, "inactive" is defined as not having posted in the game thread AND not having provided notice in the VLA Thread (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=3621.0).
10. All rule violations will be dealt with according to their severity, as determined by the mod.[/color]
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This game will use the Matrix6 (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Matrix6) setup.
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|Town Jailkeeper |Vanilla Townie|Mafia Goon |
|Mafia Roleblocker |Town Cop |Town Doctor |
|1-Shot Bulletproof Townie|Mafia Goon |Town Tracker|
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This setup will take a random row or column of the above matrix and add five Vanilla Townies and one Mafia Goon to the three randomly selected. So, in the end, there are six possible variations:
6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons
All possible PMs are here:
Role: Vanilla Townie
Abilities:
You have no special abilities beyond the right to vote.
Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Role: 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie
Abilities:
One attempt to kill (not lynch) will fail on you. After you have been tried to be killed once, you may be killed like normal.
Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Role: Town Cop
Abilities:
Each night, you may investigate a player in the game by sending the mods a PM. You will get results back in the form of “Town,” “Antitown,” or “No Result.”
Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Role: Town Doctor
Abilities:
Each night, you may target one player to protect in the to protect them from one nightkill. You may not self target.
Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Role: Town Jailkeeper
Abilities:
Each night, you may target one player in the game, whom you will protect from the nightkill and roleblock simultaneously. You may not self target.
Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Role: Town Tracker
Abilities:
Each night, You may target a player to be tracked by sending the mods a PM. You will know who that player targeted in the same night phase. You will get results back in the form of "Name(s)", "None", or "No Result".
Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.
Role: Mafia Goon
Abilities:
Factional communication: During the confirmation stage and nights, you may talk with your partner here: Quicktopic Link.
Factional kill: Each night phase, you or your partner may perform the factional kill.
Win condition:
You win when mafia obtain a majority of town or nothing can stop this from happening.
Role: Mafia Roleblocker
Abilities:
Factional communication: During the confirmation stage and nights, you may talk with your partner here: Quicktopic Link.
Factional kill: Each night phase, you or your partner may perform the factional kill.
Roleblock: Each night, you may target a player, thus causing any attempted actions to fail for the current night phase. Your target will not be notified of this. You may perfom this ability in addition to the factional kill.
Win condition:
You win when mafia obtain a majority of town or nothing can stop this from happening.
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FYI, I'm actually not a huge fan of Matrix6, but it is a good newbie setup. It's easy to run, easy to learn, and easy to play.
Now's the time to invite your friends to join the mafia community!
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Everybody always copies my Matrix6 setup post...
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Everybody always copies my Matrix6 setup post...
Easier than typing it out again.
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I've played Werewolf online, so this shouldn't be really different, right?
/in
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Also, this is a good opportunity for a rookie mod to get some experience.
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Fish?
Also, /tag. Would like to "in", but this is not a good time for me to take this commitment.
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/in for a vet spot
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Fish?
Fish.
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Fish?
Fish.
Chicken!
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Oh thank god a good old fashioned game of mafia!
/in
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Oh thank god a good old fashioned game of mafia!
/in
How many games have you played, total? Just trying to slot you in correctly.
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Oh thank god a good old fashioned game of mafia!
/in
How many games have you played, total? Just trying to slot you in correctly.
A lot. Should I count thrm all up?
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Oh thank god a good old fashioned game of mafia!
/in
How many games have you played, total? Just trying to slot you in correctly.
A lot. Should I count thrm all up?
No. You got the other veteran slot.
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5 more newbies and/or players with <5 games total experience needed.
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I suppose I'll take a shot
/in
Closest I've come to playing a game is almost subbing for Mafia some small number back in 2012. Haven't really followed them much since.
Off to sign the pledge.
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I'm watching you Wazowski (or at the very least, this newbie game), always watching...
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/in if I'm needed. If there is a newbie or someone that wants In instead I'll give this spot up
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wait, hydrad isn't a newbie? I don't know if I've ever played with him, OR seen him play....how long have I been away??!
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wait, hydrad isn't a newbie? I don't know if I've ever played with him, OR seen him play....how long have I been away??!
I think he's over the 5 game threshhold...
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Also, this is a good opportunity for a rookie mod to get some experience.
Can I co-mod?
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Also, this is a good opportunity for a rookie mod to get some experience.
Can I co-mod?
Yes.
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Am I new enough to play in this? I have 4 finished games and 3 running ones, I think.
Also, I brought a new player :)
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/in if there are any slots left
(my first post in this forum :D)
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well since this is purely a question of priority anyway, I'll just /in
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/tag, but not for spectator chat.
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The denominator is finished games so Silver is good.
Another newbie is awesome (tartar) sauce, too.
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/tag
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4 brandnewbies. That's cool.
I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
I'll be loving the crazy abbreviations/nicknames that come out o this game, though.
2 more players and this game is good to go.
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4 brandnewbies. That's cool.
I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
I'll be loving the crazy abbreviations/nicknames that come out o this game, though.
2 more players and this game is good to go.
1. Awaclus*
2. Hugovj*
3. mpsprs*
4. xxpittip*
5. silverspawn
1. Wally
2. Goyf
3. MSMR
4. Dos Equis
5. Dos Eses
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4 brandnewbies. That's cool.
I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
I'll be loving the crazy abbreviations/nicknames that come out o this game, though.
2 more players and this game is good to go.
Hugo, Marsupilami, XP Junior?
PPE Axxle
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I've been mpsprs on the internet for ~15 years now. I'm not going to change it now simply to appease you desires for such petty things as "pronunciation" and whatnot. :P
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Hugo is good ;) It's my first name. (Although I guess you won't use it now I've approved it...)
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I've been mpsprs on the internet for ~15 years now. I'm not going to change it now simply to appease you desires for such petty things as "pronunciation" and whatnot. :P
How do you pronounce it? mupspurs?
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I always think that it's em-pea-spurs (/tag)
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I usually go with "em pee ess pee ar ess", or "em pee ess" for short. I suppose Matt would also work (with a silent psprs)
edit: em-pea-spurs isn't bad
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Just make sure to pronounce my username correctly ;)
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liopoil is just a nonsense chain of letters too, just one that is sort of pronounceable, a palindrome, and quite easy to type on a qwerty keyboard.
Just make sure to pronounce my username correctly ;)
Sorry, I never do this. Ever.
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liopoil is just a nonsense chain of letters too, just one that is sort of pronounceable, a palindrome, and quite easy to type on a qwerty keyboard.
Just make sure to pronounce my username correctly ;)
Sorry, I never do this. Ever.
Good, 'cause you're actually LIP-o-lee. /tag
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Just make sure to pronounce my username correctly ;)
Sorry, I never do this. Ever.
Me neither. Forever SUDG-ee to me.
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Leo-pole, like if lions reproduced like frogs.
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I usually go with "em pee ess pee ar ess", or "em pee ess" for short. I suppose Matt would also work (with a silent psprs)
edit: em-pea-spurs isn't bad
Empty Nest it is.
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I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
It's not nonsense! (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11901.msg428983#msg428983)
Well, if you need an abbreviation, you can use CW.
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I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
It's not nonsense! (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11901.msg428983#msg428983)
Well, if you need an abbreviation, you can use CW.
It has to do with Sulkavan Suursoudut?
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Just make sure to pronounce my username correctly ;)
Sorry, I never do this. Ever.
Me neither. Forever SUDG-ee to me.
Yep.
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I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
It's not nonsense! (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11901.msg428983#msg428983)
Well, if you need an abbreviation, you can use CW.
It has to do with Sulkavan Suursoudut?
read it backwards
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I gave Hydrad a spot.
One more and the game is good to go.
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4 brandnewbies. That's cool.
I'm not loving these nonsense letter chains as usernames, though.
I'll be loving the crazy abbreviations/nicknames that come out o this game, though.
2 more players and this game is good to go.
1. Awaclus*
2. Hugovj*
3. mpsprs*
4. xxpittip*
5. silverspawn
1. Wally
2. Goyf
3. MSMR
4. Dos Equis
5. Dos Eses
Let it be so
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/tag
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I think I give this another try. /in
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/tag
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Yay for newbies! Have a ton of fun and stick around!
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I think I give this another try. /in
Says the guy who was mvp in his first game ever.
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PMs in 9 hours or so.
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I think I give this another try. /in
Says the guy who was mvp in his first game ever.
We still did lose.
PMs in 9 hours or so.
Yeah!
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scott_pilgrim
a SK as a mod? I'm not sure I like this.
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Woohoo, let's go :D
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yayyy. I'm excited!
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/tag
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1 hour!
and then... night i guess D: dang I forgot that we won't play right away and will have to wait a day or so to start.
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1 hour!
and then... night i guess D: dang I forgot that we won't play right away and will have to wait a day or so to start.
You can always talk in your QT, scum.
Hydrad is clearly fake townslipping here. Would vote him immediately if I was in this game.
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So scummy.
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yea Hydrad is definitely scum here.
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1 hour!
and then... night i guess D: dang I forgot that we won't play right away and will have to wait a day or so to start.
You can always talk in your QT, scum.
Hydrad is clearly fake townslipping here. Would vote him immediately if I was in this game.
shhh your not even in this game. you can't give out advice.
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I will gladly take the pre-game advice that Hydrad is scum. I've heard that experts at mafia can predict that random roll assignment!
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...aren't you missing a player?
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I will gladly take the pre-game advice that Hydrad is scum. I've heard that experts at mafia can predict that random roll assignment!
Wow, I've never been called an expert before!
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...aren't you missing a player?
Qvist isn't yet listed in the OP.
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PMs going out, thread locked.
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PMs have been sent.
Town players should confirm receipt with a PM reply. Mafia players should confirm receipt by posting in their QT.
Night 0 will last 24 hours. No actions may be taken during Night 0.
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All seemed quiet. The weight of a million million tons of water could do that. Under the ocean, fish swim every day, oblivious to the world above. Except for these fish...
A group of fish kids were playing together at the edge of the reef. There was a lazy teenage fish nominally acting as chaperone, but he seemed more interested in the girl fish chatting near the anemone. As he floated there, winking and smiling at the giggling girl fish, a huge shadow was cast over him. Confused, he looked up. A throat was the last thing he'd ever see.
The fish kids looked over and saw a bloody spot on the reef where the chaperone, scott_pilgrim had been. What could have done this?
Sharks...
Day 1 begins now.
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Woo. GLHF everyone
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Vote Count 1.0:
Not Voting (9): Awaclus, Hugovj, mpsprs, xxpittip, silverspawn, Hydrad, Qvist, ADK, AndrewisFTTW
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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Vote: mpsprs for now. he hasn't posted anything since the game started. super scummy.
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Wow, that was quick. I'm 4 minutes late, and I already have a vote on me.
Let's get serious though. One of the things that characterizes this game is the distinction between the two vets and all us relative newbies (and in 4 cases, absolute newbies). To go with the flavor, ADK and Andrew are the sharks. If they are both village, that's great. Experience on our side.
I worry though about one of them being mafia (or even both), and masterminding the whole thing without us inexperienced types noticing. Basically, I view it as experienced villager=moderately helpful vs. experienced mafia=very deadly. If that is the case, then perhaps, in the absence of more info (which we should definitely try to get), it would be in our best interest (as town) to target one of the "sharks" first.
I'd love to hear other's thoughts on this, especially from ADK and Andrew about why I'm totally wrong about this.
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Well, that's what you call speaking about the devil.. Mpsprs hasn't been accused for ten minutes, or there he arrives. Don't think this says anything though.
If I were moderator though, I think I would not choose both scums to be the 'real' noobs. Maybe one, but I think not both. Let's look at the list of players:
Awaclus, Hugovj, mpsprs, xxpittip, silverspawn, Hydrad, Qvist, ADK, AndrewisFTTW
The first four are totally new. Silver has played/is playing 8/9 games in total, so he could be called 'experienced' in this field. I don't know about Hydrad and Qvist. ADK and Andrew both signed up as veterans, so I think there's a big chance one of the Mafioso is in that group of three, Silver, ADK and Andrew.
Still don't know which one of the three though.
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One thing I will say is I think in all of these new mafia games they have decided who is scum and not usually by complete randomization. I don't think they pick favourites on who gets the PR's or is scum. So I would say it would be a mistake if we start eliminating pools of people just because they are new/experienced.
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Well, I've moderated a share of Werewolf games (very similar). There I actually did look at who got what role after randomizing and I could make some slight changes. I know it's not much to go on, but I think it's something.
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One thing I will say is I think in all of these new mafia games they have decided who is scum and not usually by complete randomization. I don't think they pick favourites on who gets the PR's or is scum. So I would say it would be a mistake if we start eliminating pools of people just because they are new/experienced.
I was also assuming that they were assigned randomly. If not, then of course we should take that into account.
So I don't think that ADK or Andrew are any more likely than Hugo to be mafia, but rather that they are more dangerous if they are mafia, and hence we should give stronger consideration to voting them early.
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You also have to keep in mind that while they may be strong scum players. They most likely are going to be good town players also. So if they are town they could be really helpful later on in the game.
Personally I'm going to try and judge everyone on kinda a even playing field and try to lynch who ever actually looks really scummy.
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All roles and alignments are assigned randomly using a random number generator.
This is true for all mafia games on f.ds.
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One thing I will say is I think in all of these new mafia games they have decided who is scum and not usually by complete randomization. I don't think they pick favourites on who gets the PR's or is scum. So I would say it would be a mistake if we start eliminating pools of people just because they are new/experienced.
Huh? Where do you get that from? Alignment and roles are always determined randomly.
Oh and
vote: ADK
There's not enough room in this ocean for both of us.
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One thing I will say is I think in all of these new mafia games they have decided who is scum and not usually by complete randomization. I don't think they pick favourites on who gets the PR's or is scum. So I would say it would be a mistake if we start eliminating pools of people just because they are new/experienced.
Huh? Where do you get that from? Alignment and roles are always determined randomly.
Oh and
vote: ADK
There's not enough room in this ocean for both of us.
oh wow I just reread what I posted and somehow messed that up completely. I was trying to say that everything is completely randomized. But I somehow said the exact opposite... my bad.
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Hi, have fun.
So I don't think that ADK or Andrew are any more likely than Hugo to be mafia, but rather that they are more dangerous if they are mafia, and hence we should give stronger consideration to voting them early.
I'm not sure how useful that is. While you might be right that experienced scum is dangerous, for the same reason I think that it might be hard to build a serious case against an experienced scum player at this point. On the other hand, if we just vote for random people instead, a newbie scum might be more likely to make a mistake which gives their alignment away, and if that happened, it'd be super useful. Well, we can always just collectively decide to lynch an experienced player just because they're experienced of course, but I believe that would be a bad idea.
Vote: Hydrad for being suspiciously fast.
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Hi, have fun.
So I don't think that ADK or Andrew are any more likely than Hugo to be mafia, but rather that they are more dangerous if they are mafia, and hence we should give stronger consideration to voting them early.
I'm not sure how useful that is. While you might be right that experienced scum is dangerous, for the same reason I think that it might be hard to build a serious case against an experienced scum player at this point. On the other hand, if we just vote for random people instead, a newbie scum might be more likely to make a mistake which gives their alignment away, and if that happened, it'd be super useful. Well, we can always just collectively decide to lynch an experienced player just because they're experienced of course, but I believe that would be a bad idea.
Vote: Hydrad for being suspiciously fast.
sometimes I just sit and refresh the page a bunch...
also Vote: SS How do we know xxpittip isn't someone SS is going to control. We have to take him out before its to late!
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xxpittip to prove you have your own individuality you should also vote:silver! :D
also we really need to find some easier nicknames for some people. I always have to double check my spelling when i'm writing your names.
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Good luck everyone. My last game was a while ago, let's hope that I'm not rusty.
As no one really died in the first night, it's hard to draw conclusions right now. We can now only random vote and wait until somebody slips.
xxpittip to prove you have your own individuality you should also vote:silver! :D
Vote: Hydrad for initiating a band wagon
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I'm liking "Xxpushups" for a potential nickname, or "pushups" for short. Does anyone object?
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I'm liking "Xxpushups" for a potential nickname, or "pushups" for short. Does anyone object?
I'm rereading the name and trying to figure out how you came up with that at all...
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xxpittip -> xxputtup -> xxpushups -> pushups
vote: pushups
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Well, we can always just collectively decide to lynch an experienced player just because they're experienced of course, but I believe that would be a bad idea.
Certainly at the moment. We have ~10 days to try and get a slip. And we should try to get one. I certainly don't anticipate making a serious vote that could lead to a lynch until at least half of that time is up to give us the time to hear multiple times from everybody. We need information as town, and we need time to get that.
But I'm trying to think ahead to a scenario where there isn't an obvious scum slip. We still need to work out where to put our votes. I'll admit that my standard for what constitutes a scum slip are probably quite high as well (I tend to think honest mistakes by town are fairly common as well-but I haven't looked at other games to see if I'm right about that).
At the end of the day, we need a lynch (for the informational value of the flip) and in the absence of other info, I will want to put my vote on someone whose danger as mafia outweighs their helpfulness as town. That's a tough judgement to make, as people strong in one class are likely to be strong in the other, but at the moment, I'm counting on inexperience mafia making a big mistake or two along the way if they don't have experienced hands guiding them. And I trust us as town to see those big mistakes even without experienced hands guiding us (especially, since we won't be able to fully trust their guidance). So I see the vets as dangerous and helpful, but with more danger.
All of this is very much subject to change, given discussions over the next 10 days, of course, but it's where my head is now.
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(I tend to think honest mistakes by town are fairly common as well-but I haven't looked at other games to see if I'm right about that).
They definitaly exist. In fact I would say most things people call "scumslips" end up being a town player. But still there are some scumslips that definitely are from scum and thats what we want to look for.
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Well, we can always just collectively decide to lynch an experienced player just because they're experienced of course, but I believe that would be a bad idea.
Certainly at the moment. We have ~10 days to try and get a slip. And we should try to get one. I certainly don't anticipate making a serious vote that could lead to a lynch until at least half of that time is up to give us the time to hear multiple times from everybody. We need information as town, and we need time to get that.
But I'm trying to think ahead to a scenario where there isn't an obvious scum slip. We still need to work out where to put our votes. I'll admit that my standard for what constitutes a scum slip are probably quite high as well (I tend to think honest mistakes by town are fairly common as well-but I haven't looked at other games to see if I'm right about that).
At the end of the day, we need a lynch (for the informational value of the flip) and in the absence of other info, I will want to put my vote on someone whose danger as mafia outweighs their helpfulness as town. That's a tough judgement to make, as people strong in one class are likely to be strong in the other, but at the moment, I'm counting on inexperience mafia making a big mistake or two along the way if they don't have experienced hands guiding them. And I trust us as town to see those big mistakes even without experienced hands guiding us (especially, since we won't be able to fully trust their guidance). So I see the vets as dangerous and helpful, but with more danger.
All of this is very much subject to change, given discussions over the next 10 days, of course, but it's where my head is now.
Earlier, you were saying that we should "target" them "first" though. From that, I got the picture that you were suggesting that we should start focusing our votes on Andrew and ADK pretty much right now, and that is mostly what I was replying to.
If we don't get any direct scumslips or other scummy behavior from anyone though, then I don't necessarily disagree with the idea that lynching an experienced player might be a good move. I'm not familiar enough with Mafia to say for sure if you're right or not, but at least what you're saying sounds plausible. Also, since an experienced player is less likely to make a mistake when playing as scum, in the absence of such mistakes, it makes it appear more likely that at least one experienced player is in the mafia.
xxpittip -> xxputtup -> xxpushups -> pushups
vote: pushups
I don't like pushups, can't we just shorten xxpushups -> xxp?
Also, vote: Andrew because pushups
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I'll admit that my standard for what constitutes a scum slip are probably quite high as well (I tend to think honest mistakes by town are fairly common as well-but I haven't looked at other games to see if I'm right about that).
Oh, and about this, in the end, are you more willing to lynch a newbie who could be showing signs of being scum but could also be a town player who's just making honest mistakes, or an experienced player who doesn't appear to be scum at all? At this point, I'm not saying that either approach is wrong, I'm just curious.
For the record, I'm the kind of person who's probably going to see connections and draw conclusions even when there isn't any conclusions to be drawn or connections to be seen myself.
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I say let's lynch who we collectively think is the scummiest. Lynching me or ADK just because there's a slight possibility that we're scum is pretty much a random lynch. Let's start basing our votes on actual scummy behavior.
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Vote: mpsprs for now. he hasn't posted anything since the game started. super scummy.
Vet(-ish) player jumping into RVS without explaining the concept to the new players. Seems scummy. Ish.
(since it looks like the topic got glossed over, "RVS" is Random Voting Stage, the part of the game where people throw out random/jokey votes to get the game started. Looks like there hasn't been much of that here, which I'm a fan of. The sooner real discussion gets started, the better, and I think suddenly putting pressure on people early gets good reactions).
Wow, that was quick. I'm 4 minutes late, and I already have a vote on me.
Let's get serious though. One of the things that characterizes this game is the distinction between the two vets and all us relative newbies (and in 4 cases, absolute newbies). To go with the flavor, ADK and Andrew are the sharks. If they are both village, that's great. Experience on our side.
I worry though about one of them being mafia (or even both), and masterminding the whole thing without us inexperienced types noticing. Basically, I view it as experienced villager=moderately helpful vs. experienced mafia=very deadly. If that is the case, then perhaps, in the absence of more info (which we should definitely try to get), it would be in our best interest (as town) to target one of the "sharks" first.
I'd love to hear other's thoughts on this, especially from ADK and Andrew about why I'm totally wrong about this.
This post looks towny to me. It's a somewhat controversial stance. I also think that town players, particularly new town, thinks of scum players as having some sort of master plan, when more often they're just winging it.
Well, that's what you call speaking about the devil.. Mpsprs hasn't been accused for ten minutes, or there he arrives. Don't think this says anything though.
If I were moderator though, I think I would not choose both scums to be the 'real' noobs. Maybe one, but I think not both. Let's look at the list of players:
Awaclus, Hugovj, mpsprs, xxpittip, silverspawn, Hydrad, Qvist, ADK, AndrewisFTTW
The first four are totally new. Silver has played/is playing 8/9 games in total, so he could be called 'experienced' in this field. I don't know about Hydrad and Qvist. ADK and Andrew both signed up as veterans, so I think there's a big chance one of the Mafioso is in that group of three, Silver, ADK and Andrew.
Still don't know which one of the three though.
This assumption (that the scum team was nonrandom) was a townslip in the other newbie game I played. Just saying.
Hi, have fun.
So I don't think that ADK or Andrew are any more likely than Hugo to be mafia, but rather that they are more dangerous if they are mafia, and hence we should give stronger consideration to voting them early.
I'm not sure how useful that is. While you might be right that experienced scum is dangerous, for the same reason I think that it might be hard to build a serious case against an experienced scum player at this point. On the other hand, if we just vote for random people instead, a newbie scum might be more likely to make a mistake which gives their alignment away, and if that happened, it'd be super useful. Well, we can always just collectively decide to lynch an experienced player just because they're experienced of course, but I believe that would be a bad idea.
Vote: Hydrad for being suspiciously fast.
sometimes I just sit and refresh the page a bunch...
also Vote: SS How do we know xxpittip isn't someone SS is going to control. We have to take him out before its to late!
People are starting serious discussion and Hydrad puts in another joke vote, for someone who hasn't posted yet. Yeah, vote: Hydrad.
Good luck everyone. My last game was a while ago, let's hope that I'm not rusty.
As no one really died in the first night, it's hard to draw conclusions right now. We can now only random vote and wait until somebody slips.
"Random" is an exaggeration I think, there's plenty to talk about already.
I say let's lynch who we collectively think is the scummiest. Lynching me or ADK just because there's a slight possibility that we're scum is pretty much a random lynch. Let's start basing our votes on actual scummy behavior.
This seems a little nervous, and therefore scummy, to me.
For the "lynch a vet argument", I don't think that vets have an advantage as scum, especially when it comes to the other vets. We've all played with each other before, and so can bring knowledge about each others' playstyles to the table, while all the newbies are starting with a blank slate, so to speak.
As for "scumslips", they rarely happen, and I think are unlikely to happen in a setup as simple as this. As frustrating as it is, you mostly have to get discussion going, trust your reads, and be willing to take chances.
As a final note, welcome to F.ds mafia, new people!
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That's three votes for Hydrad, which means he's 2 away from being lynched. In the lingo, he's at "L-2".
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ADK every game you call someone nervous and every game it means just as little. Could it be that I just want to promote discussion on scumhunting instead of continuing speculation on a random lynch among vets?
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please don't accidentally lynch me!
Just letting people know if you are the 5th one to vote for someone and didn't realize that you were the fifth you aren't really able to go back and "unvote" it saying it was by accident. So when people are L-2 or L-1 especially be careful when throwing votes around.
anyways back to me. Looks like I have a wagon on me. Well your all wrong because I'm town. and unless your scum you don't want to kill me. So its pretty obvious that you should vote for scum instead of me.
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Pretty enlightening stuff, Hydrad. Please, keep it coming!
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Pretty enlightening stuff, Hydrad. Please, keep it coming!
Sorry I'm terrible at the day 1 starting stuff. So I just kinda do whatever until wagons (usually on me in day1) or things actually start happening. Even though I'm annoyed that the wagon is on me again its starting to signal that we are moving out of the RVS stage which is good.
Unfortunately there is no real defense for me right now.
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You don't need a defense when there's no case.
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And L-2 isn't really close to being lynched so stop freaking out all the time.
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And L-2 isn't really close to being lynched so stop freaking out all the time.
Ya I'm away L-2 is far away. I just wanted to make sure that people understood those rules since there are a couple new players. I know for my first game I didn't fully understand the gravity of voting people who were close to being lynched in day one. And last new mafia game we played I think someone accidentily hammered (ended up being scum).
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And L-2 isn't really close to being lynched so stop freaking out all the time.
Ya I'm aware L-2 is far away. I just wanted to make sure that people understood those rules since there are a couple new players. I know for my first game I didn't fully understand the gravity of voting people who were close to being lynched in day one. And the last new mafia game played I think someone accidentally hammered (ended up being scum).
edit: spelling :/
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Isn't it L-3 now? I originally jokevoted for Hydrad, then I changed my jokevote to Andrew.
I'm interested in seeing what happens though, so vote: Hydrad and now it's L-2 unless I'm mistaken.
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Isn't it L-3 now? I originally jokevoted for Hydrad, then I changed my jokevote to Andrew.
I'm interested in seeing what happens though, so vote: Hydrad and now it's L-2 unless I'm mistaken.
Ya looks like Qvist, you and ADK are voting for me. so L-2
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Vote Count 1.1:
xpittip (1): AndrewisFTTW
silverspawn (1): Hydrad
Hydrad (3): Qvist, ADK, Awaclus
Not Voting (4): Hugovj, mpsprs, xxpittip, silverspawn
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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I say let's lynch who we collectively think is the scummiest. Lynching me or ADK just because there's a slight possibility that we're scum is pretty much a random lynch. Let's start basing our votes on actual scummy behavior.
This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I agree with Andrew that all the talk about lynching someone who is a veteran player might be strategically reasonable is nonsense. We should just focus in finding out who is mafia and lynch him.
I'm interested in seeing what happens though, so vote: Hydrad and now it's L-2 unless I'm mistaken.
Why should we already test out what happens? Not everybody has even posted here yet. We should wait.
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So Hydrad panics. Well, there are two sides to that:
It could be he is a Townie, who is genuinely shocked that the vote goes to him. I don't think this is very logical though. I think a rather experienced (yep, there it is again) player like himself shouldn't get a reaction of total panic when he is three votes away from getting lynched. Or two, for that matter.
The more logical explanation would be that he really is a scum and he tries to save himself, rather desperately. I find it very striking Qvist does actually unvote. I see a clear link here: Qvist votes for Hydrad, his partner in crime. Hydrad signals that he should look out, Qvist listens. So, íf Hydrad is a scum, then Qvist could very well be his partner.
Furthermore, I think Andrew is also suspicious. He votes randomly for pushups, then he claims in his post directly after it that we should stop voting randomly. That's a bit contradictory. Besides, he says:
You don't need a defense when there's no case.
Very well, then why did you try to take the attention away from yourself earlier, when there weren't any votes on you, by saying that we should start looking for the scummiest player?
Also, when ADK accuses you, you start defending yourself by claiming ADK always says things like this and it shouldn't count against you?
Andrew plays very aggressively defensive, therefore:
Vote: Andrew
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All roles and alignments are assigned randomly using a random number generator.
This is true for all mafia games on f.ds.
except bastard :)
Vote: Hydrad for being suspiciously fast.
vote: Awaclus, because I wanted to be first to vote for Hydrad
How do we know xxpittip isn't someone SS is going to control.
You don't. pit is my pet. see what I did there?
If we don't get any direct scumslips or other scummy behavior from anyone though, then I don't necessarily disagree with the idea that lynching an experienced player might be a good move. I'm not familiar enough with Mafia to say for sure if you're right or not, but at least what you're saying sounds plausible. Also, since an experienced player is less likely to make a mistake when playing as scum, in the absence of such mistakes, it makes it appear more likely that at least one experienced player is in the mafia.
I don't think that's correct, and it's definitely not how we do it most of the time. If a good player is town, he is usually a high target for scum to nightkill. if you lynch him, they don't have to do that anymore. likewise, if you don't lynch him, he might just prove his towniness by dying.
I say let's lynch who we collectively think is the scummiest. Lynching me or ADK just because there's a slight possibility that we're scum is pretty much a random lynch. Let's start basing our votes on actual scummy behavior.
Yea, agreed. Do you know that in my first real game, you were one of my biggest town reads, and you were also scum? gotta be careful.
I don't like this post. RVS stage is bad? why? you need something to base initial discussion on. I also don't see how mpspers post made him towny. I think that's easily something noob!scum could post
at least we agree on the noob!doens't!know!that!roles!are!distributed!randomly thing
in my first overall game, which was a bliz game, was got to be survivor, and I asked mali mi per pm if he assigned this role randomly, and he said yes, all roles are assigned randomly. so, it's plausible that a new town wouldn't know.
... actually hold on, a new scum wouldn't know this either. what are you saying? vote: ADK
please don't accidentally lynch me!
Just letting people know if you are the 5th one to vote for someone and didn't realize that you were the fifth you aren't really able to go back and "unvote" it saying it was by accident. So when people are L-2 or L-1 especially be careful when throwing votes around.
anyways back to me. Looks like I have a wagon on me. Well your all wrong because I'm town. and unless your scum you don't want to kill me. So its pretty obvious that you should vote for scum instead of me.
has anyone ever told you that you're cute?
for everyone else, this kind of freaking out would be a massive scum tell. but not for you. though, if you ever play somewhere where people don't know you, you should not defend yourself that much.
I say let's lynch who we collectively think is the scummiest. Lynching me or ADK just because there's a slight possibility that we're scum is pretty much a random lynch. Let's start basing our votes on actual scummy behavior.
This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I agree with Andrew that all the talk about lynching someone who is a veteran player might be strategically reasonable is nonsense. We should just focus in finding out who is mafia and lynch him.
I'm interested in seeing what happens though, so vote: Hydrad and now it's L-2 unless I'm mistaken.
Why should we already test out what happens? Not everybody has even posted here yet. We should wait.
is this really your second game? that post doesn't look like it.
no, i already said Hydrad always pancis. why aren't you reading my posts?
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actually vote: pit until he shows up. being late is a scum tell.
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You don't need a defense when there's no case.
Very well, then why did you try to take the attention away from yourself earlier, when there weren't any votes on you, by saying that we should start looking for the scummiest player?
Also, when ADK accuses you, you start defending yourself by claiming ADK always says things like this and it shouldn't count against you?
Andrew plays very aggressively defensive, therefore:
Vote: Andrew
I wasn't defending myself I was clarifying that when ADK calls someone "nervous" like he often doesn it's misleading.
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vote: silverspawn
For a joke vote and a serious (?) vote in the same post, for saying "freaking out" is a scum tell (I disagree), for implying something about Qvist being reasonable, and for being rude to Hugovj for no reason.
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Oh, and about this, in the end, are you more willing to lynch a newbie who could be showing signs of being scum but could also be a town player who's just making honest mistakes, or an experienced player who doesn't appear to be scum at all? At this point, I'm not saying that either approach is wrong, I'm just curious.
For the record, I'm the kind of person who's probably going to see connections and draw conclusions even when there isn't any conclusions to be drawn or connections to be seen myself.
This is a good question. I think I'm the kind of person who will be very slow to draw conclusions, even when they aren't there. I feel like everything will be probability based and my tendency I think will be to give extra weight to those "but what if this instead..." type thoughts. That means that you and I may well be at odds at points during the game, but I think that can be a good thing. You can counter-balance my tendency to hem and haw, and I can counter-balance what from my perspective will seem like reading too much into shaky evidence :).
That doesn't answer your question yet though. I think I would vote for a newbie with hints of scum tendencies over an entirely non-scummy vet. Mostly because our number one goal is to lynch scum; that's how we win. And this:
I don't think that's correct, and it's definitely not how we do it most of the time. If a good player is town, he is usually a high target for scum to nightkill. if you lynch him, they don't have to do that anymore. likewise, if you don't lynch him, he might just prove his towniness by dying.
also helps turn me off the "with no other lead, lynch a vet" idea. Silverspawn essentially points out that there is value in not lynching someone who is clearly playing well (either strong helpful town or dangerous mafia) because the mafia's decision on who to nightkill will give us information on that. That is to say, for a strong player, we may be able to read more into their survival to the next day than with a not strong or inactive player. (In fact, I think it's the best response to my original question so far-thanks SS).
Finally, about the Hydrad L-2, I'm not worried yet. I trust that even us new townies understand the value of a longer day 1 (information), and mafia won't hammer because that's just asking for suspicion. But it's always interesting to see how people react.
Then Awaclus and I can argue about the conclusions we can or can't draw from that :)
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xxpittip -> xxputtup -> xxpushups -> pushups
vote: pushups
Vote: AndrewisFTTW because I dont like pushups
(you can call me pit btw)
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Posts: 0
liar
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Posts: 0
liar
Please include the name of the person you're quoting.
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Posts: 0
liar
Please include the name of the person you're quoting.
I'm not quoting a person! Pit's post count says zero, but he just posted. it was a joke. get it? :P
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and as you can see, I did every quote in my first post the proper way. and yes, that was because of your post in the whatever thread it was thread.
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at least we agree on the noob!doens't!know!that!roles!are!distributed!randomly thing
in my first overall game, which was a bliz game, was got to be survivor, and I asked mali mi per pm if he assigned this role randomly, and he said yes, all roles are assigned randomly. so, it's plausible that a new town wouldn't know.
... actually hold on, a new scum wouldn't know this either. what are you saying? vote: ADK
In the first newbie game I played, a new player asked if roles were random, and it was a townslip. If the scum team was two newbies, they were probably surmise that they had been chosen randomly (or been told by the mod), and if it was a newbie and vet, they would have been told by the vet in their QT. There was some argument that the newbie had been coached to ask that question, but that's not a thing that really happens. Hence, I think that it points to Hugo probably being town.
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This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I disagree. You should definitely go back to voting for him.
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Posts: 0
liar
This is not "proper" because there's no name attributes to the quote. I have no idea who said "Posts: 0".
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Posts: 0
liar
This is not "proper" because there's no name attributes to the quote. I have no idea who said "Posts: 0".
I posted this directly after Pit. this is his status
xxpittip
Newbie
Online Online
Posts: 0
since when are you so obsessed with jokes anyway? that's totally out of character. it actually makes me want to
vote: Andrew
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and in case you misunderstood this, although I have no idea why, but you seemed to have
and as you can see, I did every quote in my first post the proper way. and yes, that was because of your post in the whatever thread it was thread.
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my first post was this (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434493#msg434493)
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at least we agree on the noob!doens't!know!that!roles!are!distributed!randomly thing
in my first overall game, which was a bliz game, was got to be survivor, and I asked mali mi per pm if he assigned this role randomly, and he said yes, all roles are assigned randomly. so, it's plausible that a new town wouldn't know.
... actually hold on, a new scum wouldn't know this either. what are you saying? vote: ADK
In the first newbie game I played, a new player asked if roles were random, and it was a townslip. If the scum team was two newbies, they were probably surmise that they had been chosen randomly (or been told by the mod), and if it was a newbie and vet, they would have been told by the vet in their QT. There was some argument that the newbie had been coached to ask that question, but that's not a thing that really happens. Hence, I think that it points to Hugo probably being town.
I don't see why that has to come from town. A new scum player could be just as unsure how roles and alignment are selected. Of course if you read the setup it answers that question clearly. Then we get ibto the whole "who is more likely to not read the setup" argument, etc.
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My point is, scum's already started playing before day one starts, so a new scum player is likely to have that question already answered.
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My point is, scum's already started playing before day one starts, so a new scum player is likely to have that question already answered.
That's legit reasoning I think. Not necessarily enough to sell me on the town slip though.
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and in case you misunderstood this, although I have no idea why, but you seemed to have
and as you can see, I did every quote in my first post the proper way. and yes, that was because of your post in the whatever thread it was thread.
Yes thank you. When I see something in quote tags I assume you're quoting what somebody said. Sorry I didn't know that when you were quoting you weren't actually quoting. I should've gotten that right away and that's an obvious scumtell. Congratulations, you just broke mafiam
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My point is, scum's already started playing before day one starts, so a new scum player is likely to have that question already answered.
And they can pretend like they don't.
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And actually trying to clear somebody like that so early is scummy, even if it's subtle.
vote: ADK
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My point is, scum's already started playing before day one starts, so a new scum player is likely to have that question already answered.
And they can pretend like they don't.
And see, this is the argument we had in that game (and FYI I was scum and taking the position you are right now). I'd be surprised if a newbie thought to make a play like that right of the bat. Hugo seems pretty on the ball so it's not 100%, but it's enough to give me a town read on him.
And actually trying to clear somebody like that so early is scummy, even if it's subtle.
vote: ADK
Forming reads is scummy now?
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No. Declaring something is a townslip when it's clearly not is scummy.
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So are you arguing that he faked it?
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No I'm arguing that it's WIFOM and not as cut and dry as you make it seem.
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At the moment I believe what hugo did is more towny then scummy and am willing to give him town points for it. He did mention that he had some experience playing werewolves (apparently its almost the same) so him faking these comments probably arn't out of his abilities. But still it felt townier to me then scummy.
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No I'm arguing that it's WIFOM and not as cut and dry as you make it seem.
I'll grant you that it's possible that he faked it, I'm just saying that to me, it seems more likely that it's genuine, and that it gives me a town read on him. You don't have to agree, but I don't see how me holding that opinion is scummy. I certainly wasn't trying to present it as indisputable evidence that Hugo is town or anything.
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I think Andrew pushing ADK here is the scummiest thing that's happened so far.
I also kind of like a pit vote, because he should know better than lurking. He played this game IRL before.
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Just letting people know andrew is L-2 right now. Also if your putting someone at L-1 its a usually a thing to state in that post that you are putting them at L-1. so that we hopefully have less accidental hammers.
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actually, andrew is at L-4. What are you saying?
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actually, andrew is at L-4. What are you saying?
you hugo and pit are voting for andrew I'm pretty sure.
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actually, andrew is at L-4. What are you saying?
you hugo and pit are voting for andrew I'm pretty sure.
oh nvm you're right
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No I'm arguing that it's WIFOM and not as cut and dry as you make it seem.
I'll grant you that it's possible that he faked it, I'm just saying that to me, it seems more likely that it's genuine, and that it gives me a town read on him. You don't have to agree, but I don't see how me holding that opinion is scummy. I certainly wasn't trying to present it as indisputable evidence that Hugo is town or anything.
Ok well, I disagree and I think having certain opinions and the way they're presented can indicate scumminesa. But really, everything about mafia is opinion so saying having an opinion is not scummy is pretty much saying nothing you say caan be called scummy.
I think Andrew pushing ADK here is the scummiest thing that's happened so far.
Because...?
I also kind of like a pit vote, because he should know better than lurking. He played this game IRL before.
Well it 's not like you can lurk in person and he'ss not exactly lurking anyway. Maybe comparitively yes but that doesn't mean much.
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Well it 's not like you can lurk in person and he'ss not exactly lurking anyway. Maybe comparitively yes but that doesn't mean much.
one post is not lurking?
but there is more to this argument, I know him pretty well, I don't think he is the kind of guy who would lurk in his first game as town.
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Well it 's not like you can lurk in person and he'ss not exactly lurking anyway. Maybe comparitively yes but that doesn't mean much.
one post is not lurking?
but there is more to this argument, I know him pretty well, I don't think he is the kind of guy who would lurk in his first game as town.
I guess its not quite lurking because the game hasn't even been open for 24 hours. So while hes posted the least out of everyone I'm not going to judge him for lurking when the game is still just starting. It seems like we have a pretty active group also.
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I think Andrew pushing ADK here is the scummiest thing that's happened so far.
I also kind of like a pit vote, because he should know better than lurking. He played this game IRL before.
Now i have to keep lurking for at least 24h, because if i would change my behaviour after this post i would seem really suspicious.
But do you know what is really suspicious, too? Accusing random people for no reason. Not as suspicious as someone calling me "pushup" but maybe ss is the second scum...
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Just look at silvers evil Avatar... Definitely looks like a vicious killer
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Werewolf isn't similar: It's the same game. (Different voting system though). So yeah, I'm not totally new to this game.
I would like some more thoughts from Pushups though. Of Pit. Of xx. Whatever. More than 'I don't like pushups as name' and 'Silver's avatar is evil'.
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I think Andrew pushing ADK here is the scummiest thing that's happened so far.
I also kind of like a pit vote, because he should know better than lurking. He played this game IRL before.
Now i have to keep lurking for at least 24h, because if i would change my behaviour after this post i would seem really suspicious.
But do you know what is really suspicious, too? Accusing random people for no reason. Not as suspicious as someone calling me "pushup" but maybe ss is the second scum...
if anything, the fact that you react so fast after I called you on it confirms that you're scum. do you want to know a secret? scum fears pressure way more than town does. town!you would not have taken me seriously at all. but scum!you is already panicking. and you have obviously been following this thread closely, not to mention that I knew you were online in steam.
and the second part of your post is pretty OMGUS (http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=OMGUS)
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I mean you could make the argument that, because changing your behavior after I said something is suspicious, the fact that you did do it shows that you don't feel pressure, but I'm not buying it.
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Oh and also
but maybe ss is the second scum...
"the second"? does this mean there are two scum? how do you know? why not 3?
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well I guess we don't have to worry about SS going easy on pit. But I do agree slightly with SS here. pit looks a bit scummy but I don't feel as strongly about it as SS seems too
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Oh and also
but maybe ss is the second scum...
"the second"? does this mean there are two scum? how do you know? why not 3?
Well, see Asherky's second post and the Matrix.
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well I guess we don't have to worry about SS going easy on pit. But I do agree slightly with SS here. pit looks a bit scummy but I don't feel as strongly about it as SS seems too
*seems to
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Oh and also
but maybe ss is the second scum...
"the second"? does this mean there are two scum? how do you know? why not 3?
Well, see Asherky's second post and the Matrix.
"..."
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
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Werewolf isn't similar: It's the same game. (Different voting system though). So yeah, I'm not totally new to this game.
I would like some more thoughts from Pushups though. Of Pit. Of xx. Whatever. More than 'I don't like pushups as name' and 'Silver's avatar is evil'.
I dont know enough about you all to make any reasoned accusations. My plan is to gather as much information as possible at first and then make decisions after night 1-2 (if im still alive at that point).
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
While I'm pretty sure this is genuine at the same time you could easily fake this. Still your starting to be on the town side of my reads.
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
While I'm pretty sure this is genuine at the same time you could easily fake this. Still your starting to be on the town side of my reads.
well what would faking it do. not having read the setup doesn't make me town.
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
While I'm pretty sure this is genuine at the same time you could easily fake this. Still your starting to be on the town side of my reads.
well what would faking it do. not having read the setup doesn't make me town.
If your scum I'm guessing you and your partner would have discussed the setup at least a bit.
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
While I'm pretty sure this is genuine at the same time you could easily fake this. Still your starting to be on the town side of my reads.
well what would faking it do. not having read the setup doesn't make me town.
If your scum I'm guessing you and your partner would have discussed the setup at least a bit.
I wouldn't know.
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
Well ADK? Townslip?
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Unvote because Qvist said so and I believed him.
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I re-read everything and here are my impressions that I quickly wrote in Notepad while I was reading:
Hydrad seems to be town
hard to say if Andrew is town
ADK accuses Hydrad of being scum
ADK states that Hugovj's ignorance of the randomly assigned roles is a townslip
ADK accuses Hydrad of being scum again and votes for him
ADK accuses Andrew of being scummy
ADK says that Hydrad is at L-2 when he's actually at L-3, not sure how doing this deliberately would help him, could be an honest mistake
Hydrad sounds like he's joking in his "defense", still seems to be town, maybe slightly worried about the chance of newbies accidentally lynching him which is understandable for both scum and town
Hugovj states that Hydrad "panics", which is definitely an overstatement
Hugovj also seems to be overstating Andrew's "aggressively defensive" playing
hard to say anything about silverspawn, mps or pit, and still hard to say anything about Andrew too
ADK continues his quest against Hydrad and keeps insisting that Hugovj's potential townslip was, indeed, a townslip
Andrew accuses ADK of being scum because of the Hugovj thing and ADK responds by admitting that what he was saying isn't necessarily true, just that he thinks it is
Eh, there isn't really a strong case against anyone here. I think that ADK looks like he's the scummiest, and Hugovj could possibly be his scum partner. Some people seem to think that Andrew is scum and I don't know if I disagree, but for the time being, I'm going to vote: ADK.
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Other possible scum pairings are Qvist/Hydrad and Andrew/Hydrad, but then Hydrad would have to be playing really well because I'm not getting that kind of impression from him at all.
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yay someones on my side... kinda?
Anyways would we be able to get a vote count? I'm kinda loosing track of where everything is.
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Vote Count 1.2:
silverspawn (1): Hydrad
Hydrad (1): ADK
ADK (2): AndrewisFTTW, Awaclus
AndrewisFTTW (3): Hugovj, xxpittip, silverspawn
Not Voting (2): mpsprs, Qvist
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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is this really your second game? that post doesn't look like it.
This is like my fourth game, but I don't remember exactly.
Finally, about the Hydrad L-2, I'm not worried yet. I trust that even us new townies understand the value of a longer day 1 (information), and mafia won't hammer because that's just asking for suspicion. But it's always interesting to see how people react.
You might be right, if someone hammers this early, that's pretty suspicious, still I unvote just to be sure, because the time we have to get all our reads is valuable and a premature hammering wouldn't allow that.
In the first newbie game I played, a new player asked if roles were random, and it was a townslip. If the scum team was two newbies, they were probably surmise that they had been chosen randomly (or been told by the mod), and if it was a newbie and vet, they would have been told by the vet in their QT. There was some argument that the newbie had been coached to ask that question, but that's not a thing that really happens. Hence, I think that it points to Hugo probably being town.
Interesting insight. Hugo might be town, your argument is reasonable.
This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I disagree. You should definitely go back to voting for him.
Why do you think so?
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
Well ADK? Townslip?
More likely to be a genuine townslip, yeah.
Hydrad seems to be town
Why?
This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I disagree. You should definitely go back to voting for him.
Why do you think so?
He's switching votes a fair bit, which looks like nervous scum to me. I pretty much always find Hydrad scummy, though.
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He's switching votes a fair bit, which looks like nervous scum to me. I pretty much always find Hydrad scummy, though.
Well I've voted twice... and both votes are kinda RVS votes. So thats a interesting reason to vote for me seeing as others have voted just as much if not more then me. But whatever. Also ya sorry for some people I seem to always seem scummy to them.
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i thought this was closed. no really, didn't see that he even made a setup post. well, see my signature.
Well ADK? Townslip?
More likely to be a genuine townslip, yeah.
I begrudgingly agree.
Hydrad seems to be town
Why?
Yeah why?
This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I disagree. You should definitely go back to voting for him.
Why do you think so?
He's switching votes a fair bit, which looks like nervous scum to me. I pretty much always find Hydrad scummy, though.
Not gonna reread yet as we just started but I'm null on Hydrad right now. I haven't witnessed anything out of the ordinary for Hydrad yet.
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Why?
Well, it just mostly felt like he was genuinely trying to help the newbie townies find the scum and not mislynch people for stupid reasons. Just an impression like that. Of course, that's just my subjective view, and I'm aware that it could be just him being good at acting like a helpful pro-town player and me being bad at telling that it's just an act, so if you can convince me that I'm wrong, I'm very willing to change my view about this. I just find the arguments you and Hugovj were using against him overly aggressive, and not very strong.
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No I'm arguing that it's WIFOM and not as cut and dry as you make it seem.
I'll grant you that it's possible that he faked it, I'm just saying that to me, it seems more likely that it's genuine, and that it gives me a town read on him. You don't have to agree, but I don't see how me holding that opinion is scummy. I certainly wasn't trying to present it as indisputable evidence that Hugo is town or anything.
Time for me to chime in on the Hugo and setup thing. His question (whether or not scum are chosen randomly) also occurred to me, though I simply assumed it was random. I couldn't find anything in the set-up about that. So to me, it feels like the kind of thing new townies could and would wonder about (since that is exactly my situation).
And the argument that scum had an extra day of prep to get that question answered is a good one. And it doesn't really seem like the kind of thing that scum would plan to ask about to put us off their scent, so I'd say the question pushes Hugo a tad toward town in my estimation. Certainly there is some WIFOM in there, if they thought of it-but I'm guessing they wouldn't.
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Why?
Well, it just mostly felt like he was genuinely trying to help the newbie townies find the scum and not mislynch people for stupid reasons. Just an impression like that. Of course, that's just my subjective view, and I'm aware that it could be just him being good at acting like a helpful pro-town player and me being bad at telling that it's just an act, so if you can convince me that I'm wrong, I'm very willing to change my view about this. I just find the arguments you and Hugovj were using against him overly aggressive, and not very strong.
While I appreciate the towny vibes your getting from this I just want you to be aware that thats something that is really easily faked and if I did roll scum I would have said probably the exact same stuff. So I would be careful in giving town reads on people who give advice because I know that I will give advice to new players as town or scum.
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Why?
Well, it just mostly felt like he was genuinely trying to help the newbie townies find the scum and not mislynch people for stupid reasons. Just an impression like that. Of course, that's just my subjective view, and I'm aware that it could be just him being good at acting like a helpful pro-town player and me being bad at telling that it's just an act, so if you can convince me that I'm wrong, I'm very willing to change my view about this. I just find the arguments you and Hugovj were using against him overly aggressive, and not very strong.
While I appreciate the towny vibes your getting from this I just want you to be aware that thats something that is really easily faked and if I did roll scum I would have said probably the exact same stuff. So I would be careful in giving town reads on people who give advice because I know that I will give advice to new players as town or scum.
Well you really know how to not make yourself look towny.
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Why?
Well, it just mostly felt like he was genuinely trying to help the newbie townies find the scum and not mislynch people for stupid reasons. Just an impression like that. Of course, that's just my subjective view, and I'm aware that it could be just him being good at acting like a helpful pro-town player and me being bad at telling that it's just an act, so if you can convince me that I'm wrong, I'm very willing to change my view about this. I just find the arguments you and Hugovj were using against him overly aggressive, and not very strong.
While I appreciate the towny vibes your getting from this I just want you to be aware that thats something that is really easily faked and if I did roll scum I would have said probably the exact same stuff. So I would be careful in giving town reads on people who give advice because I know that I will give advice to new players as town or scum.
Well you really know how to not make yourself look towny.
Yeah, no kidding.
Everyone: "We're getting a town read from Hydrad"
Hydrad: "Whoa, let's not get ahead of ourselves here."
The point is well-taken though
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Ya I just don't want people to get town reads on me for the wrong reasons. I feel town reads based on things like that are the first ones to fall apart. So while I'm hoping to get town reads on me I don't want them to get town reads on me for the wrong reasons. Although I guess I shouldn't technically care how I get a town read on me.
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If you're town you owe it to the rest of the town to look as towny as possible.
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If you're town you owe it to the rest of the town to look as towny as possible.
True, but you also want the other townies to be looking hard at everybody, and reconsidering their thoughts. I want to be towny as possible, and I'd like for my teammates to eventually read me as such, but I don't want them to stop considering all options, because not everyone they read is towny will be town.
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Unvote because Qvist said so and I believed him.
Btw, why do you believe me already? If you ask me, I'm still in the "I don't trust anybody" phase.
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Unvote because Qvist said so and I believed him.
Btw, why do you believe me already? If you ask me, I'm still in the "I don't trust anybody" phase.
Well, in fact I don't. Like I said, a you/Hydrad scum pairing would make sense, and as was pointed out by someone else, it's for exactly the reason that you were voting for Hydrad early and removed your vote when it became a wagon. I still do believe that the advice in general was good advice, because as town you wouldn't want to give malicious advice and as scum you wouldn't want to get caught giving malicious advice, there's just a possibility that it just was a convenient time to give that advice in order to get Hydrad out of trouble.
Speaking of Hydrad, his response to me finding him towny is very strange. At first, it looked like he was just saying it for fun, but then it started looking like he's scum trying to (to go with the flavor) fish for more town points, and now it's looking like he's scum trying to subtly tell his scum partner, me, that I should stop saying how towny he is - I obviously know that I'm not his scum partner and so does Hydrad, but the rest of you don't. Did he post that without realizing that this is a conclusion that would be drawn (maybe this is just me overthinking it, and maybe anyone else wouldn't even have made that connection), or is there a reason why he would want that everyone thinks that we have a me/Hydrad scum pair? If he's town, definitely none. If he's scum, I guess in the best case scenario he might manage to get me lynched, thus protecting his real scum partner from my suspicion (I guess that would be... ADK? Or perhaps Qvist or Andrew if he was worried about my secondary scum guesses), and then he could try to argue that "see, that wasn't the scum pairing, I'm town too" after I flipped town. I guess that's not impossible. Does anyone else think anything about this, am I overthinking things here? Could Hydrad explain himself?
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I doubt Hydrad was thinking so far, but if he was going to flip scum at some point, it's possible that others were going to draw similar conclusions.
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Does anyone else think anything about this, am I overthinking things here? Could Hydrad explain himself?
As we previously discussed, I don't think I'm drawing anywhere near as strong a conclusion about this (which is not to say you are drawing a strong conclusion-just more than mine. I think Hydrad was basically saying exactly what Qvist said:
Btw, why do you believe me already? If you ask me, I'm still in the "I don't trust anybody" phase.
just in a peculiar way. Is that peculiar way an indication of scum? Probably not. Is it worth noting? Probably yes.
I doubt Hydrad was thinking so far, but if he was going to flip scum at some point, it's possible that others were going to draw similar conclusions.
Pretty much, I agree with this. With the addenda that if Awaclus were to flip scum, we should look back at this and draw conclusions about Hydrad (and SS and me). And so on. Basically, I think this area of conversation has lots of information for down the line when we have flips. A
And that is surely good for us.
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So, first you believe me, then not. Weird.
and now it's looking like he's scum trying to subtly tell his scum partner, me, that I should stop saying how towny he is
Also, why would you point out that it seems that you are Hydrad's scum partner? If it's not true, I would gladly ignore that and hope that no-one notices it and if it's true, it makes even less sense pointing it out. I don't think anyone has noticed that Hydrad supposedly was trying to tell you anything like that.
Does anyone else think anything about this, am I overthinking things here?
Yes, you are either overthinking this or you are scum.
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Why?
Well, it just mostly felt like he was genuinely trying to help the newbie townies find the scum and not mislynch people for stupid reasons. Just an impression like that. Of course, that's just my subjective view, and I'm aware that it could be just him being good at acting like a helpful pro-town player and me being bad at telling that it's just an act, so if you can convince me that I'm wrong, I'm very willing to change my view about this. I just find the arguments you and Hugovj were using against him overly aggressive, and not very strong.
Bolding added. Are you saying that there are people who are trying to do that? And I'm sceptical of the claim that Hydrad is doing much scumhunting, both of his votes were joke votes and most of his posts have been him defending himself.
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hmmm well I can honestly tell you I did not intend for any of the possible scum partners at all to happen in that statement. That statement was just kinda on a whim I wrote how I don't think me giving advice is enough to get a read on as anyone here will probably give advice and I think thats a dangerous thing to give town reads for.
So ya you guys are all looking way to far into it.
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So, first you believe me, then not. Weird.
and now it's looking like he's scum trying to subtly tell his scum partner, me, that I should stop saying how towny he is
Also, why would you point out that it seems that you are Hydrad's scum partner? If it's not true, I would gladly ignore that and hope that no-one notices it and if it's true, it makes even less sense pointing it out. I don't think anyone has noticed that Hydrad supposedly was trying to tell you anything like that.
Does anyone else think anything about this, am I overthinking things here?
Yes, you are either overthinking this or you are scum.
I still believe that the advice was good, that's what I said in the previous post as well and that's all I was originally referring to. There never was a point where I thought you couldn't be scum, but so far, there is a reason to suspect you only if Hydrad is scum, too.
I pointed out that it seems that I'm Hydrad's scum partner because I thought that it seems like I'm Hydrad's scum partner. I just noticed it, but I didn't know if it was intentional or not, so I brought it up in order to let more experienced players and especially those who have played with Hydrad before state their opinions about it. If others thought that Hydrad was doing it intentionally, then I guess the only conclusion we could have drawn from that is that it was scummy, and then we could have lynched him, but if it looks like I'm just overthinking this, then I still think he is town. This is a slightly complicated decision, so I didn't want to convince myself that one alternative is right before hearing from others. Anyway, if there started to be more hints of Hydrad being scum later, then this would certainly have affected my opinion about it, and I would have had to point it out anyway, or someone else could have pointed it out then, and I think that it was better to point it out right away.
In any case, it looks like everyone else thinks that I'm overthinking this, and you can't all be Hydrad's scum partner so that's probably true.
Why?
Well, it just mostly felt like he was genuinely trying to help the newbie townies find the scum and not mislynch people for stupid reasons. Just an impression like that. Of course, that's just my subjective view, and I'm aware that it could be just him being good at acting like a helpful pro-town player and me being bad at telling that it's just an act, so if you can convince me that I'm wrong, I'm very willing to change my view about this. I just find the arguments you and Hugovj were using against him overly aggressive, and not very strong.
Bolding added. Are you saying that there are people who are trying to do that? And I'm sceptical of the claim that Hydrad is doing much scumhunting, both of his votes were joke votes and most of his posts have been him defending himself.
I'm not claiming that he's doing scumhunting, I'm claiming that he was helping newbies avoid stupid mislynches, and thus, focus on finding the actual scum. Well, that was what I got from him at the very start of the game, that's why it was the first item on my list of observations, he hasn't been doing much of that lately. Let me ask you, why do you think that he's scum?
I doubt Hydrad was thinking so far, but if he was going to flip scum at some point, it's possible that others were going to draw similar conclusions.
Does anyone else think anything about this, am I overthinking things here? Could Hydrad explain himself?
As we previously discussed, I don't think I'm drawing anywhere near as strong a conclusion about this (which is not to say you are drawing a strong conclusion-just more than mine. I think Hydrad was basically saying exactly what Qvist said:
Btw, why do you believe me already? If you ask me, I'm still in the "I don't trust anybody" phase.
just in a peculiar way. Is that peculiar way an indication of scum? Probably not. Is it worth noting? Probably yes.
I doubt Hydrad was thinking so far, but if he was going to flip scum at some point, it's possible that others were going to draw similar conclusions.
Pretty much, I agree with this. With the addenda that if Awaclus were to flip scum, we should look back at this and draw conclusions about Hydrad (and SS and me). And so on. Basically, I think this area of conversation has lots of information for down the line when we have flips. A
And that is surely good for us.
Yeah, this sounds reasonable.
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also ADK you seem to be pretty set on me being scum right now. Do you have any other scum reads right now or ideas of who my "partner" is?
For me I have a feeling that there is a scum in one of the vets right now. Lots of the new players I'm getting town vibes from. I guess mpsprs and pit I'm still fairly hesitant on right now. But I think my scum pool is around ADK/Andrew/Qvist for who I want to lynch. I'm going to unvote right now while I think about which one is more likely to be scum.
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also ADK you seem to be pretty set on me being scum right now. Do you have any other scum reads right now or ideas of who my "partner" is?
For me I have a feeling that there is a scum in one of the vets right now. Lots of the new players I'm getting town vibes from. I guess mpsprs and pit I'm still fairly hesitant on right now. But I think my scum pool is around ADK/Andrew/Qvist for who I want to lynch. I'm going to unvote right now while I think about which one is more likely to be scum.
While I think Awaclus is doing a good job, that's noy really how Hydrad plays. He really just speaks his mind without thinking about the repercussions, or so it seems.
That said, this post by Hydrad is super scummy. Hiis scum reads are the only two people who have played more than three or so games and the guy who's talking a whole lot of sense. Seems like reasonable targets for new scum and he doesn't have a case to back up any of his reads.
I'm not sure how many votes are on Hydrad right now so
unvote
Until I can go check a vote count.
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I think i only have 1 vote on me right now so you should be fine.
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reasons for my top 3:
Qvist: hasn't posted much and most of his posts don't have a ton of content. But its still early day 1 so its really hard to come up with content right now. Probaably my weakest of the 3.
ADK: seems to have picked me and is sticking with me. I don't think I've ever seen ADK do something like this especially day 1 and just feels weird. He seems to be pretty confident for some reason. Just doesn't feel right.
Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.
I think I'm going with Vote: Andrew right now as Qvists isn't that scummy really and I feel a bit better on andrew then ADK.
Also note this is Lynch in 1 for andrew! so the next vote on him will kill him.
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about Hydrad: I think he might be scum here. That is, I feel that he's scum. But I'm not entirely certain about why I feel it, which is untypical. I could explain a few reasons though.
The first thing is, his posts are longer, and they have more content. It's probably reasonable to assume that Hydrad is still changing up his meta, but I find that his town self usually posts a lot of one-liners with little content.
I think these posts are problematic:
While I appreciate the towny vibes your getting from this I just want you to be aware that thats something that is really easily faked and if I did roll scum I would have said probably the exact same stuff. So I would be careful in giving town reads on people who give advice because I know that I will give advice to new players as town or scum.
Ya I just don't want people to get town reads on me for the wrong reasons. I feel town reads based on things like that are the first ones to fall apart. So while I'm hoping to get town reads on me I don't want them to get town reads on me for the wrong reasons. Although I guess I shouldn't technically care how I get a town read on me.
This just screams "LOOK AT THIS POST. SCUM WOULD NOT MAKE THIS KIND OF POST" to me. WIFOM - I guess? But town!Hydrad doesn't do these kinds of posts. He would just let it rest.
Another thing is his voting manner. He starts of with two extremely early votes, as it is typical for him, but then he doesn't vote at all. I'm not entirely sure, but I think his town self didn't do that.
Then there's the "let me help noobies" thing. I think this could be genuine!town!Hydrad, but it could also be letmedosafeposts!scum!hydrad. Of course, noone is really giving town points for that anymore, so meh it's probably pretty nullish.
I'm feeling even stronger about pit though. Yea, this is his first game, but again, I know him pretty well, and I just don't think he is the kind of player who lurks in his first game. He usually has strong opinions, even if he isn't that experienced in something, and he isn't afraid to share them. Don't let this avatar fool you, the guy is not timid. I also don't buy that he keeps lurking because of my initial comment. But I could see scum!pit thinking, okay this kind be dangerous, let's start by staying in the background, I will probably just be ignored. That might not be very smart from a more experienced perspective, but he can't really know the concept of lurking.
vote: Pit
for now.
Andrew is somewhat scummy, but not as much anymore.
Awaclus is very towny. PPS, I'm not sure, he's hard to read. Qvist, also not sure, but he seems geniune, so slightly towny here. ADK, I think he has responded in a reasonable manner after his initial post, so town points for that. Hugov, I have no idea. He could easily be scum, but I wouldn't call this a scum read. I just don't think this kind of style is hard to replicate, but he hasn't done anything that looks scummy. so, null.
PEE: oh, another long post. thanks for underlining my point.
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I have to make longer posts sometimes. Its interesting that having longer posts makes you think I'm scum though.
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PPS, I'm not sure, he's hard to read.
Who's that?
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I have to make longer posts sometimes. Its interesting that having longer posts makes you think I'm scum though.
and from now on, it's not a scum tell anymore, just WIFOM. maybe I should have given you more time to be scummy this game before saying it?
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PPS, I'm not sure, he's hard to read.
Who's that?
Usually thats Pingpongsam... but hes not in this game. so i dunno
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I have to make longer posts sometimes. Its interesting that having longer posts makes you think I'm scum though.
and from now on, it's not a scum tell anymore, just WIFOM. maybe I should have given you more time to be scummy this game before saying it?
Well I guess it would be a problem if I was scum. But since I'm town all its going to be is you realizing next game that longer posts doesn't always mean I'm scum.
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i dunno
Thanks for your input.
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i dunno
Thanks for your input.
oh actually probably mpsprs?
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i dunno
Thanks for your input.
oh actually probably mpsprs?
yes its mpspers. well, it's not mpsprs, it's someone who is not in the game, but I meant mpsprs. no idea why i switched that up
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maybe because of the p's and s's in his name. but they're not very similar in terms of playstile.
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Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.
Uh no. I voted for ADK on the first page or whatever, then silverspawn, then ADK, and now you.
vote: Hydrad
Super scummy putting me at L-1 already.
More when I get home.
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Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.
Uh no. I voted for ADK on the first page or whatever, then silverspawn, then ADK, and now you.
vote: Hydrad
Super scummy putting me at L-1 already.
More when I get home.
There was also a pit vote in there.
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That and the first ADK vote were jokes from the very beginning of the game.
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Vote Count 1.3:
Hydrad (2): ADK, AndrewisFTTW
ADK (1): Awaclus
AndrewisFTTW (3): Hugovj, xxpittip, Hydrad
xxpittip (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (2): mpsprs, Qvist
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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oh i didn't notice SS unvoted andrew. So its L-2 now.
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Still super scummy.
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Still super scummy.
People have to get to L-1 at some point. I don't see whats so bad about that. If everyone stayed at L-3 or something there won't be any pressure on anyone. I think putting people to L-1 is completely fine as long as you announce it. L-1 without announcing is scummy though.
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Still super scummy.
People have to get to L-1 at some point. I don't see whats so bad about that. If everyone stayed at L-3 or something there won't be any pressure on anyone. I think putting people to L-1 is completely fine as long as you announce it. L-1 without announcing is scummy though.
What's the rush?
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Still super scummy.
People have to get to L-1 at some point. I don't see whats so bad about that. If everyone stayed at L-3 or something there won't be any pressure on anyone. I think putting people to L-1 is completely fine as long as you announce it. L-1 without announcing is scummy though.
What's the rush?
Then we at least have time to analyze the wagons more. When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town. So I'm going to try and keep things happening.
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Still super scummy.
People have to get to L-1 at some point. I don't see whats so bad about that. If everyone stayed at L-3 or something there won't be any pressure on anyone. I think putting people to L-1 is completely fine as long as you announce it. L-1 without announcing is scummy though.
What's the rush?
Then we at least have time to analyze the wagons more. When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town. So I'm going to try and keep things happening.
Edit: woo quoting fail
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So I'm going to try and keep things happening.
I'm not sure I buy this. This game didn't look like it was stalling.
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So I'm going to try and keep things happening.
I'm not sure I buy this. This game didn't look like it was stalling.
Oh no its not stalling right now. And my vote for andrew isn't just a reactions vote I really think hes scum. But it sounds like hes saying we shouldn't be putting people at L-1 this early but I think that its good for the game to have that happen. Does that explanation make a bit more sense?
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So I'm going to try and keep things happening.
I'm not sure I buy this. This game didn't look like it was stalling.
Oh no its not stalling right now. And my vote for andrew isn't just a reactions vote I really think hes scum. But it sounds like hes saying we shouldn't be putting people at L-1 this early but I think that its good for the game to have that happen. Does that explanation make a bit more sense?
I think you're scum, buddy. the "I DO THIS TO GET THE GAME GOING" thing is something scum does more often than town I think. I have made the mistake of giving joth towncred for that in james bond mafia. guess what, he was scum. these last posts aren't exactly good for your image.
also, did you announce L-1 properly? I don't remember.
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Also note this is Lynch in 1 for andrew! so the next vote on him will kill him.
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So I'm going to try and keep things happening.
I'm not sure I buy this. This game didn't look like it was stalling.
Oh no its not stalling right now. And my vote for andrew isn't just a reactions vote I really think hes scum. But it sounds like hes saying we shouldn't be putting people at L-1 this early but I think that its good for the game to have that happen. Does that explanation make a bit more sense?
You think I'm scum because.... I voted for ADK and then I voted for you? Cool. Got it.
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Vote: Hydrad again because I think we all agreed that we still have enough time to analyze the behaviour and wait for slips, but now he puts (or believe he had put) Andrew at L-1. That's totally unreasonable.
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Vote Count 1.4:
Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
ADK (1): Awaclus
AndrewisFTTW (3): Hugovj, xxpittip, Hydrad
xxpittip (1): silverspawn
Not Voting (1): mpsprs
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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Vote: Hydrad again because I think we all agreed that we still have enough time to analyze the behaviour and wait for slips, but now he puts (or believe he had put) Andrew at L-1. That's totally unreasonable.
Oh I still think we should wait a while until we lynch someone. But I think people should definitely vote for who they think are scum. But not lynch them quite yet (unless for some reason you are super sure they are scum). This way people are held more accountable for their actions and we can see voting patterns.
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I do think Hydrad is suspicious, but on the other hand, I start to get a feeling is is tóo suspicious. A real scum wouldn't do that, I think. Or he's just bluffing. Anyway I think he is playing rather defensively.
I don't know about Awaclus. I get a town read from his posts, but then again, I do think he was really defending Hydrad. I think these two could be scum together, but that's just as wild a guess as before.
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We can start talking about scum teams once we've found scum but let's hold off until then. It doesn't really do much.
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I'm not claiming that he's doing scumhunting, I'm claiming that he was helping newbies avoid stupid mislynches, and thus, focus on finding the actual scum. Well, that was what I got from him at the very start of the game, that's why it was the first item on my list of observations, he hasn't been doing much of that lately. Let me ask you, why do you think that he's scum?
I first found him scummy because I thought his first posts were being unhelpful with so many new players (because he was being overly jokey), and then subsequently because of his reaction to pressure. That's why I'm curious that you that you categorized as being town for being helpful.
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also ADK you seem to be pretty set on me being scum right now. Do you have any other scum reads right now or ideas of who my "partner" is?
For me I have a feeling that there is a scum in one of the vets right now. Lots of the new players I'm getting town vibes from. I guess mpsprs and pit I'm still fairly hesitant on right now. But I think my scum pool is around ADK/Andrew/Qvist for who I want to lynch. I'm going to unvote right now while I think about which one is more likely to be scum.
Awaclus is raising a few flags for me, but nothing too alarming. I would have said "Qvist" if you hadn't right there, just because he's being a little quiet and out of the way. You bringing him up out of the blue is a little suspicious, though, for both of you.
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ADK: seems to have picked me and is sticking with me. I don't think I've ever seen ADK do something like this especially day 1 and just feels weird. He seems to be pretty confident for some reason. Just doesn't feel right.
Man, this what I do day one, like, all the time. Maybe just not in games you've been in? Go ask Witherweaver about it sometime.
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vote: Pit
The thing is, none of us have ever played with him before, so we have to take your word for it that you're representing him accurately.
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Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.
Uh no. I voted for ADK on the first page or whatever, then silverspawn, then ADK, and now you.
vote: Hydrad
Super scummy putting me at L-1 already.
More when I get home.
We apparently agree on Hydrad, but I would like to go on the record that I don't think putting someone at L-1 early in the game is inherently scummy. You get lots of interesting reactions and as long as people aren't stupid derphammers don't actually happen.
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Oh I still think we should wait a while until we lynch someone
"because if we lynch someone right now it will probably be me and then half my team will be dead"
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I'm not claiming that he's doing scumhunting, I'm claiming that he was helping newbies avoid stupid mislynches, and thus, focus on finding the actual scum. Well, that was what I got from him at the very start of the game, that's why it was the first item on my list of observations, he hasn't been doing much of that lately. Let me ask you, why do you think that he's scum?
I first found him scummy because I thought his first posts were being unhelpful with so many new players (because he was being overly jokey), and then subsequently because of his reaction to pressure. That's why I'm curious that you that you categorized as being town for being helpful.
Hmm. As a new player, I think his posts early were helpful, and somewhat more reliable than Andrew's posts saying basically the same things because unlike Andrew, Hydrad wasn't one of the players we were "supposed" to be targeting just because of experience. (I guess you could make the argument that he was protecting his experienced partner, but that didn't occur to me). I didn't think that the jokes really distracted from anything at that point, and I didn't think that the reaction to pressure was scummy. Also, him being town fit very nicely in the picture where you and Hugovj were pushing a case against him while you were saying how towny Hugovj was, so perhaps that made me want to see him being town, which in turn could have made me see him being town. I haven't completely abandoned that picture yet, but as Hydrad keeps getting less and less towny with each post he writes lately, I'm losing a lot of my confidence in it.
Could you explain what exactly about his reaction made it appear scummy to you/why do you think that being overly jokey is unhelpful? At this point, I'm mostly just interested in hearing your point of view more clearly, because I obviously don't completely understand it.
ADK: seems to have picked me and is sticking with me. I don't think I've ever seen ADK do something like this especially day 1 and just feels weird. He seems to be pretty confident for some reason. Just doesn't feel right.
Wait a minute, why just ADK? Hugovj was doing the exact same thing, he was just posting less.
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I guess in my last sentence you could replace the "was"s with "is"s.
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Well Hugo isn't even voting for me right now. So I guess I was more surprised with ADK as when I posted that it felt like I am the only one hes willing to lynch today.
I know now that he has other reads and he just finds me scummiest though.
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Wow. Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner, and lots happens. Including getting confused with Pingpongsam. Should I take that as a complement.
Okay, time for a reads post. All are fairly weak at this point.
Vets first (since I started with the vets or noobs thing)
ADK: I just looked back at all your posts. Mostly it seems you've defended Hugo (random setup thing) and defended Hydrad (don't be so sure of your town read on me). I've also defended both. I think that's the town position. So lean town a bit. But I'd like to see more analysis, to help people like me see how it's done.
Andrew: Similar to ADK (on opposite sides of the argument). He has spread his votes around a bunch, but maybe that's just his style (anybody know). Seems to be trying hard to keep people from getting town reads from things like the Hugo and Hydrad events-that strikes me as something scum would want. So I'd say lean scum a bit.
Qvist: Hasn't said much. Jumped off the first L-2 very quick, but I think I'd have done the same. I think it is very important to get some pressure, but also to not lynch early. No real read on him. Hasn't done/said much.
Hydrad: Came out early against my original "lynch a vet statement" with a reasonable (if obvious) argument. I like that. Then he gets to L-2, and has his minor flip out. From what the rest of you post, that's normal for him. I wouldn't know. Certainly there was no case on him. Then his "don't read me as town" thing, which was also odd. Certainly consistent. And I think town-ish, especially if he has been voted off early as town before in his few other games. I remember a few silly middle school FTF mafia games where, due to my complete inability to keep a straight face, I was routinely the first voted off; when the consensus started forming, I reacted exactly the same way. He also has a post explaining his top three scum where ADK is on the list for consistently thinking Hydrad is scum, and Andrew is on the list for consistently switching votes. I suppose that fits the personality vibes I'm getting from Hydrad, but seems less town-ish to me. There's a lot there, but it's chaotic. So I'd say I'm on the fence, but I'd be inclined to not lynch him to see if we can make sense of all that stuff.
SS: Another with a lot. A (not really) strike against him is not knowing my name :P. Also, why wouldn't you read the set-up? Doesn't knowing the setup help us as town? Since that is your MO, it doesn't mean anything in terms of scum/town read, but, read the setup! So pushing pit based on personal knowledge-fine, but we don't know him, so that doesn't really help us now. It certainly will if we lynch either of you and get the flip. Also strong on Hydrad, which I get (though don't agree with). His reasons there are also from previous games. This, while not necessary town-ish, is helpful. So I'd be disinclined to have an SS lynch. If pressed, I'd give a slight town read. But I don't really have reasons.
xxpittip: Nothing really. Showed up, argued with SS. Then gone again. WE NEED MORE! You say (message 158) that you want info. So help us get some!
Hugo: Also not a ton. But there was post 110 (a long post, hence the non-quote) where he gets way ahead of things suggesting scum early (IMO). Qvist-Hydrad pair (evidence: Qvist's unvote); and then Andrew is scummy, vote Andrew all in the same post. (and IMO, the reasons for Andrew being scum were entirely baseless, and that's from someone with a small scum read). There's the setup thing, which seems town to me, but post 110, when I look at it more and more, makes me feel scummy-ness from Hugo. More than I like myself feeling this early, when we have so little to go on, but probably one of my stronger scum reads.
Awaclus: My strongest townread. Seems totally helpful, reasonable, and though I disagree with his tendency to make stronger reads, he backs them up and questions them. All of that seems very town to me.
So. That was a long post. So SS probably thinks I'm scum now (see message 193)
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In a separate post, I wanted to do two things:
Should I be actually putting the quotes in a long message like that? Would that be helpful? Is that the standard practice?
Also, I think with need to up the pressure on xxpittip. We need info. Be a part of that. Don't just sit back and hope it comes.
Vote: xxpittip
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In a separate post, I wanted to do two things:
Should I be actually putting the quotes in a long message like that? Would that be helpful? Is that the standard practice?
Also, I think with need to up the pressure on xxpittip. We need info. Be a part of that. Don't just sit back and hope it comes.
Vote: xxpittip
I have no idea what is or isn't standard practice, but I've been quoting when it feels like it makes misunderstandings less likely to happen, puts emphasis on important things etc -- in other words, when it actually helps. If it isn't useful, then it just makes posts messier for no benefit.
And I agree that Pit really needs to start interacting with people. Vote: Pit this is L-2 if I'm not mistaken.
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There isn't really standard practice for quotes. If my posts are getting super long I'll start truncating quotes to the relevant bits.
mpsrps (murps?): I've been doing the opposite of defending of Hydrad, I feel fine with my vote currently on him. Putting a pressure vote on a lurker isn't uncommon but I'm going to go look at who you switched from.
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You weren't voting yet, okay. I tend to go for more analytic posts later in the game, my early game play relies a more on gut reads. I like what I'm seeing from you, though.
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Actually i wanted to keep mostly quiet until after the first kill, because i think that is the point to reread all the important posts and find out who might be scum. But since i dont want to risk being lynched already, im gonna change my plan for now.
Since i wont have much time today i will just give you a list of my thoughts so far:
I dont know anyone here, except for silver which makes it hard to say who is acting different than they normally do.
First of all unvote
Qvist: I actually felt he was scum, but i just read all of his posts again i didnt find anything suspicious at all, which is why i say neutral for now.
ADK / Andrew: Both of them seem quite towny to me, but since they are more experienced players they should know how not to act in the first day...
silver: I didnt notice any really atypical behavior so far, expected him to vote for me at the beginning.
hugo: I dont believe the townslip thing, because that is exactly what i would tell my unexperienced scum-partner to do, if i was an experienced scum. Other than that he seems to be doing the same thing i do, which makes him look towny ofc
(rest will follow in a few hours since i dont have time to write more right now)
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Actually i wanted to keep mostly quiet until after the first kill, because i think that is the point to reread all the important posts and find out who might be scum.
If everyone did that, we would have nobody to lynch.
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Part 2 of my last post:
Awaclus: Propably the most likely to be town. If i had to give percentages for everyone i wouldnt give anyone else more than 55% town- / scumchance, but Awaclus would get 60% town.
Hydrad: So many different posts mentioning him... I cant really make a clear picture out of tem all. From what i have read so far i assume many of you know him quite well, so i will leave the judgement to you.
mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.
Vote: mpsprs lets see what happens
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Part 2 of my last post:
Awaclus: Propably the most likely to be town. If i had to give percentages for everyone i wouldnt give anyone else more than 55% town- / scumchance, but Awaclus would get 60% town.
eehhhhm. 2 scum out of 9 players, and you don't give anyone more than 55% town chance?
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Part 2 of my last post:
Awaclus: Propably the most likely to be town. If i had to give percentages for everyone i wouldnt give anyone else more than 55% town- / scumchance, but Awaclus would get 60% town.
eehhhhm. 2 scum out of 9 players, and you don't give anyone more than 55% town chance?
22,22 +- 2,22% then... 17.77% scum for awaclus
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Part 2 of my last post:
Awaclus: Propably the most likely to be town. If i had to give percentages for everyone i wouldnt give anyone else more than 55% town- / scumchance, but Awaclus would get 60% town.
eehhhhm. 2 scum out of 9 players, and you don't give anyone more than 55% town chance?
22,22% +- 2,22% then... 17.77% scum for awaclus
*22,22% scum chance before anyone starts complaining again
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No. You are supposedly town. That makes 2 scum out of 8, which is one quarter aka 25%. If anything, that has to be your start value.
Of course, you didn't think of including that because you aren't town, you're scum. this is called a scum slip.
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Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.
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Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.
Maybe i havent even read my pm and i dont know it myself, because it is my strategy to read it when night1 comes so i cant town- /scumslip at day1
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Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.
Maybe i havent even read my pm and i dont know it myself, because it is my strategy to read it when night1 comes so i cant town- /scumslip at day1
Well, there's no way that can be true though, because everyone had to reply to their PMs.
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Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.
Maybe i havent even read my pm and i dont know it myself, because it is my strategy to read it when night1 comes so i cant town- /scumslip at day1
Well, there's no way that can be true though, because everyone had to reply to their PMs.
ofc it isnt true, but in theory i could have replied without reading the PM
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Vote Count 1.5:
Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
AndrewisFTTW (2): Hugovj, Hydrad
xxpittip (3): silverspawn, mpsprs, Awaclus
mpsprs (1): xxpittip
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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Oh and Unvote because now he's active.
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hmm in light of these recent posts I think pit has moved above Qvist in scummyness. Also if SS is town I think there is a high chance that pit could be scum. I've found SS's reads to generally be on point and don't know if I've seen him this sure about someone. I also feel like if SS was scum he might try to push a mislynch on someone else to keep his friend in the game?
Actually that last point might not make sense as he could also be scum and just using an excuse that he knows pit and that this isn't what he would do to try and get us to lynch him.
But at the moment I have a townier read on SS so I'm kinda willing to trust him on pit.
I still have a bad feeling about andrew. But actually I'm not sure if I've ever played a game other then a bastard game with andrwe. So maybe its because I'm not used to him? Sorry andrew I know this is such a flimsy reason but I've just got this gut feeling your scum.
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mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.
This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.
One thing about Silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.
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One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.
I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.
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One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.
I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.
I mean, it's as likely as any other scum team.
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One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.
I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.
I mean, it's as likely as any other scum team.
exactly. which is not very likely.
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mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.
This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.
I agree that the reasoning makes little sense (it seems like more of a personality kind of thing. Could be scumminess, but xxpittip also immediately voted for SS when SS called him out early. So it could just be his thing. At the very least, it's consistent.
mpsrps (murps?): I've been doing the opposite of defending of Hydrad, I feel fine with my vote currently on him.
I went back and looked, and I have no idea what I was looking at. And looking again, I still have no idea what I was looking at. Just reading too quickly I guess.
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One thing about silver and Pit and the fact that they know each other: if they rolled scum together, I think that it's very likely that they would plan to stage some sort of conflict before hand.
I agree, but that's 2/9 * 1/8 -> not very likely.
I mean, it's as likely as any other scum team.
Initially it was as likely as any other scum team, but now we have information. It's hard to say how much exactly that information makes certain scum teams more likely or less likely, but at this point, some possible scum teams seem unlikely while others are not so much unlikely.
I'm not sure if SS/Pit is one of those less unlikely teams. Pit is somewhat scummy now in my opinion, so SS calling him scummy doesn't necessarily mean that they're staging a conflict. It could mean that, but it also could mean that SS is town and just trying to find the scum, or scum with someone else. It's still very difficult to say anything about SS in a vacuum in my opinion, but the fact that a few others appear to be more scummy than him makes me think that he's probably town (does this reasoning make any sense at all?).
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Vote Count 1.6:
Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
AndrewisFTTW (2): Hugovj, Hydrad
xxpittip (2): silverspawn, mpsprs
mpsprs (1): xxpittip
Not voting (1): Awaclus
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.
This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.
I agree that the reasoning makes little sense (it seems like more of a personality kind of thing. Could be scumminess, but xxpittip also immediately voted for SS when SS called him out early. So it could just be his thing. At the very least, it's consistent.
I never voted for ss. My only vote so far was for andrew, when he called me pushups.
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mpsprs: The only person i have a real scum feeling about. The only one to write something personal about himself ( "Lose power for a few hours, go out to dinner" ). That seemed to me like he felt that he has to justify his absence. Feeling the need to justify ones actions always indicates scumminess.
This reasoning makes very little sense to me, and it seems a little like you're fishing for a reason to vote for someone, which I find pretty scummy.
I agree that the reasoning makes little sense (it seems like more of a personality kind of thing. Could be scumminess, but xxpittip also immediately voted for SS when SS called him out early. So it could just be his thing. At the very least, it's consistent.
I never voted for ss. My only vote so far was for andrew, when he called me pushups.
(And now mpsprs)
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I don't really get all the votes on Pit. I think it's true that everybody should say something, otherwise how could we ever find a scum, but I don't think he is suspicious enough to put at L-2 already.
Also, Hydrad:
I still have a bad feeling about andrew. But actually I'm not sure if I've ever played a game other then a bastard game with andrwe. So maybe its because I'm not used to him? Sorry andrew I know this is such a flimsy reason but I've just got this gut feeling your scum.
This is rather weird. I mean, we're playing with newbies here, so obviously you aren't used to anybody. I feel like this is a very strange way to stop Andrew from getting into an argument with you, which could make you more suspicious than you already are.
I'm going to
Unvote
because I'd rather vote for Hydrad. Don't know whether I want to put him on L-1 already though.
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I never voted for ss. My only vote so far was for andrew, when he called me pushups.
I looked back, and this is true. I was thinking of when SS taught me about OMGUS (your post 147, and SS's reply, post 150). So you didn't actually vote for SS, but your reaction was similar. Someone calls you out for not participating, your response is to show up and claim that person is scummy.
Your vote for Andrew is clearly not for a serious reason (I hope), so I'm discounting it.
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Checking in, I'll have a longer post later today.
Hydrad first you think I'm scummy for switching my vote a lot (which in my opinion isn't true). Now you say it's just a gut feeling. Which is it?
I'd hold off on L-1 but some people feel differently about it than me.
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I don't really get all the votes on Pit. I think it's true that everybody should say something, otherwise how could we ever find a scum, but I don't think he is suspicious enough to put at L-2 already.
I'm not one to throw my vote around, but it is really the only weapon we have. If someone is not responding, we should apply some pressure. That certainly does not mean lynching, and L-2 is not particularly close to a lynch (as we've discussed earlier) this early in the process.
But we did at least get some response. I'm still not especially happy with xxpittip's play, but for the time being I will
Unvote
We are now ~5 days from the deadline. So we need to start working out who will be the lynch. I would prefer not to do so in a panic in the last few hours-as Hydrad said:
When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town.
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because I'd rather vote for Hydrad. Don't know whether I want to put him on L-1 already though.
There's no reason not to, as long as you announce it.
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Hugo Don't be afriad to put me at L-1. Like I said earlier I think putting people at L-1 is good for the game.
as for my reasonings on andrew it started out because he vote swapped a couple times. Which is fine but I just got a bad feeling from them. And since then I just have a gut feeling on him. On day 1 its hard for evidence to arise so I usually end up trusting my gut a bit more.
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We are now ~5 days from the deadline. So we need to start working out who will be the lynch. I would prefer not to do so in a panic in the last few hours-as Hydrad said:
When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town.
This game is actually going at a decent pace. Not super fast like some games but doesn't seem to be completely stalling either. And we have some good wagons right now. So I'm not to worried about where this game is going right now at least.
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This game is actually going at a decent pace. Not super fast like some games but doesn't seem to be completely stalling either. And we have some good wagons right now. So I'm not to worried about where this game is going right now at least.
I agree, but it did slow down a bit once we got off the weekend. While we're both on, perhaps I can ask you a question. I get that on day one, we will have to go by gut feel to some extent (unless we get very lucky and scum slips badly). But I'd still like to try and flesh out your gut feeling.
Here is where you stated your top 3 (and voted for Andrew).
reasons for my top 3:
Qvist: hasn't posted much and most of his posts don't have a ton of content. But its still early day 1 so its really hard to come up with content right now. Probaably my weakest of the 3.
ADK: seems to have picked me and is sticking with me. I don't think I've ever seen ADK do something like this especially day 1 and just feels weird. He seems to be pretty confident for some reason. Just doesn't feel right.
Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.
It seems to me that your reasons for ADK and Andrew are more or less opposites. Does that bother you any? Can you explain the discrepancy, or is "gut" all you have. Maybe that's out of character for both of them? They've both defended the claims-Andrew that several of those votes were during RVS, and ADK that this is his usual style. Andrew's we can look at, and seems true. ADK, I don't know about, since I'm a noob. But it also seems plausible (and as I mentioned in my crazy long post, I get a slightly town vibe from ADK-which is still, admittedly largely gut).
Or maybe there's something else you can point to to explain your gut feeling?
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Hugo Don't be afriad to put me at L-1. Like I said earlier I think putting people at L-1 is good for the game.
I don't understand your playstyle. Why do you want that you are L-1? If you are town, it's not beneficial for town. If you are scum, it's also not beneficial for scum. I can't see how you want to be at L-1!?
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Hugo Don't be afriad to put me at L-1. Like I said earlier I think putting people at L-1 is good for the game.
I don't understand your playstyle. Why do you want that you are L-1? If you are town, it's not beneficial for town. If you are scum, it's also not beneficial for scum. I can't see how you want to be at L-1!?
No I don't want to be at L-1. But I'm trying to let him know that he shouldn't be afriad to put people at L-1. If he feels like he wants to vote for me and the only thing thats stopping him is because it would put me on L-1 I'm just letting him know he should still do it. Obviously I don't want to get lynched though I'm just trying to give some advice out.
(which you should apparently not take to seriously as I seem to be playing poorly this game)
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Or maybe there's something else you can point to to explain your gut feeling?
Hmm I guess to explain my gut feeling would be I look at peoples posts and try to get what kinda tone they are speaking in through text would be the best way to explain it. Overall there is very little logic in my gut feeling so its not the most trustworthy thing. But I've kinda grown to trust mine a bit more as in my first game dice mafia I ended up finding almost all the scum with just gut feeling. I would constantly post how my logic says its this person but my gut says this person. I never really had a reason to go with the gut feeling but I would always end up voting them anyways.
So in general I would say whenever I try to follow my logic I end up getting tricked by scum. But when I follow my gut I have a higher success rate. So thats kinda what I'm going for here. I'm sorry that this doesn't help you out much but hopefully this explains most of your questions?
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I'm sorry that this doesn't help you out much but hopefully this explains most of your questions?
No that's helpful. Thanks for answering. As a newbie, I don't have any experience to see if my gut is any good, and my instinct is to go with logic. It's good to hear that gut can work sometimes too :).
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Vote Count 1.7:
Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
AndrewisFTTW (1): Hydrad
xxpittip (1): silverspawn
mpsprs (1): xxpittip
Not voting (3): Awaclus, Hugovj, mpsprs
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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Reread of Pit:
116 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434523#msg434523): Makes a joke about pushups being bad and votes for Andrew. Scum QT: "Hey, you should probably throw some votes around early, to fake confidence"
147 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434579#msg434579): says he has to keep lurking because I accuse him of lurking. good excuse
148 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434580#msg434580): makes a joke about my avatar. as if he doesn't know the flavor
158 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434592#msg434592): says he doesn't know enough about everyone to make good cases. that's pretty legit.
237 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg435017#msg435017): posts somewhat of an excuse for lurking and a reads list that includes 4 people. says the rest will follow.
239 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg435040#msg435040): continues the list, votes for mpspers
241+ (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg435066#msg435066): talks about probabilities but messes things up pretty bad. Then he posts this:
Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.
Maybe i havent even read my pm and i dont know it myself, because it is my strategy to read it when night1 comes so i cant town- /scumslip at day1
Town had to confirm their roles via pm. But for scum, maybe it's enough to post in their QT's. Maybe pit didn't know that town has to confirm via pm, because he just confirmed in his QT? Maybe he just forgot to confirm altogether, but the mods didn't do anything because he was otherwise active in his QT?
As Awaclus tells him that he has to respond via PM, he answers "ofc it isnt true, but in theory i could have replied without reading the PM." Well, that would be cheating, wouldn't it?
258/259 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg435939#msg435939): posts a short answer to mpspers
And that's all. Total vote count: 11
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So, the case is for lurking, for (in my mind) uncharacteristic responses, and for his scum slip. I also don't like how his first post in this thread is a joke. I can't help feeling like this is mentored!nooby!scum!pit.
So, in my mind, he's like ~50% scum. That's higher than everyone else, so that's where I'll keep my vote for now.
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Or you just forgot. But I like the scum alternative better.
Maybe i havent even read my pm and i dont know it myself, because it is my strategy to read it when night1 comes so i cant town- /scumslip at day1
Town had to confirm their roles via pm. But for scum, maybe it's enough to post in their QT's. Maybe pit didn't know that town has to confirm via pm, because he just confirmed in his QT? Maybe he just forgot to confirm altogether, but the mods didn't do anything because he was otherwise active in his QT?
As Awaclus tells him that he has to respond via PM, he answers "ofc it isnt true, but in theory i could have replied without reading the PM." Well, that would be cheating, wouldn't it?
You dont have to confirm your role, only confirm that you have received a pm (see Post #70). Even if i hadnt read it it would still not be cheating.
So, the case is for lurking, for (in my mind) uncharacteristic responses, and for his scum slip. I also don't like how his first post in this thread is a joke. I can't help feeling like this is mentored!nooby!scum!pit.
So, in my mind, he's like ~50% scum. That's higher than everyone else, so that's where I'll keep my vote for now.
I still dont get why you think lurking = scum... (btw hugo has about half as many posts as i have)
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I still dont get why you think lurking = scum... (btw hugo has about half as many posts as i have)
It all depends on the player. Lurking isn't a scum tell in general. The problem is that you are lurking. I don't think that fits you. If you start doing it every game (which would suck), then I'll have to admit that it's not a scum tell. But as is, I have problems believing that town!you lurks in his first game. Maybe I'm wrong.
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But you have nothing to base that off of. You can't say lurking isn't normal for a certain person if you don't know what that person's "normal" is.
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You dont have to confirm your role, only confirm that you have received a pm (see Post #70). Even if i hadnt read it it would still not be cheating.
Unlike SS, I actually read the setup, and the posts from Ashersky. I'm not going to quote post #70 (to make sure I'm not in violation of rule 3), but the method of confirming that you received a pm differed for town and scum. Town were instructed to reply by pm; mafia by posting in their QT.
I still dont get why you think lurking = scum... (btw hugo has about half as many posts as i have)
The issue is not number of posts, but content in the posts. As SS's analysis showed, your posts have mostly been minimal and not especially helpful to the town, and have mostly come in response to me and SS calling you out. Hugo doesn't have many posts (7, by my count), but because of the content of the posts he feels more active and engaged in the game. He also hasn't expressed a desire to basically wait until after night 1 or 2 to start scum-hunting.
I agree with SS that lurking isn't a scum tell in general. There are personality issues at play and I don't know you, so maybe that is your personality. But I do think that lurking as much as you are is not helpful to the town. And town should want to be helpful to the town.
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I think lurking the way silverspawn (and most everyone here) means it is strictly post count.
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I think lurking the way silverspawn (and most everyone here) means it is strictly post count.
Ahh. Good to know that. I'll change up my terminology.
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But you have nothing to base that off of. You can't say lurking isn't normal for a certain person if you don't know what that person's "normal" is.
well I have something to base it off, which is that I know him. Of course that's not an argument for anyone else to vote for him. But I can still vote for him because of it, we don't have to have identical reasons. Also, it's not like I'm dead-set on lynching Pit. If it's not happening, I can do someone else.
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But you have nothing to base that off of. You can't say lurking isn't normal for a certain person if you don't know what that person's "normal" is.
well I have something to base it off, which is that I know him. Of course that's not an argument for anyone else to vote for him. But I can still vote for him because of it, we don't have to have identical reasons. Also, it's not like I'm dead-set on lynching Pit. If it's not happening, I can do someone else.
Actually that means nothing. People can take on whatever personality they want once they're online, that's part of the beauty (and ugliness) or the internet. Just because you know somebody IRL doesn't mean you know exactly how they're supposed to act in a game of mafia.
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But you have nothing to base that off of. You can't say lurking isn't normal for a certain person if you don't know what that person's "normal" is.
well I have something to base it off, which is that I know him. Of course that's not an argument for anyone else to vote for him. But I can still vote for him because of it, we don't have to have identical reasons. Also, it's not like I'm dead-set on lynching Pit. If it's not happening, I can do someone else.
Actually that means nothing. People can take on whatever personality they want once they're online, that's part of the beauty (and ugliness) or the internet. Just because you know somebody IRL doesn't mean you know exactly how they're supposed to act in a game of mafia.
I don't know him IRL, I know him through an sc2/mlp forum.
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The point remains the same.
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The point remains the same.
I wasn't sure, but I disagree either way. I don't think it's impossible to predict how someone plays in mafia.
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The point remains the same.
I wasn't sure, but I disagree either way. I don't think it's impossible to predict how someone plays in mafia.
Not impossible but definitely pointless. It's like me saying "silverspawn is an aggressive Dominion player so I think it's scummy that he's lurking".
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The point remains the same.
I wasn't sure, but I disagree either way. I don't think it's impossible to predict how someone plays in mafia.
Not impossible but definitely pointless. It's like me saying "silverspawn is an aggressive Dominion player so I think it's scummy that he's lurking".
It's not the same, because you don't know me as well.
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The point remains the same.
I wasn't sure, but I disagree either way. I don't think it's impossible to predict how someone plays in mafia.
Not impossible but definitely pointless. It's like me saying "silverspawn is an aggressive Dominion player so I think it's scummy that he's lurking".
It's not the same, because you don't know me as well.
I'm sorry but just because you know his favorite color is purple and his hobbies include glass blowing and clocks does not mean you have any reference on how he plays mafia. Now can we please get back to some honest to goodness scumhunting? Thank you.
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The point remains the same.
I wasn't sure, but I disagree either way. I don't think it's impossible to predict how someone plays in mafia.
Not impossible but definitely pointless. It's like me saying "silverspawn is an aggressive Dominion player so I think it's scummy that he's lurking".
It's not the same, because you don't know me as well.
I'm sorry but just because you know his favorite color is purple and his hobbies include glass blowing and clocks does not mean you have any reference on how he plays mafia. Now can we please get back to some honest to goodness scumhunting? Thank you.
I have no idea where your aggression is coming from, but I think it's pretty out of place. I think I know him well enough to make this kind of statement, and so I did. If you disagree, it's fine (although stupid, because you have no way of knowing), but please don't treat it like it's impossible. And please don't pretend like I am distracting from scum hunting, when I'm just responding to your posts. If I recall correctly, I was the last one to make a case.
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Ok.
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Okay, Hydrad
First of all, stats. Unfortunately, the only finished game I have both included and am allowed to reference is Zelda Mafia. the length is number of letters minus quoted parts. for this game, I ignored the two posts where he quote failed, and only took the corrected version minus the "EDIT: quote fail". but that's the only thing I changed.
Zelda Mafia
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Number of Posts: 106
Average Length: 189
Votes: 12
Unvotes: 2
Alignment: Town
Fish Mafia
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Number of Posts: 46
Average Length: 263
Votes: 4
Unvotes: 1
Alignment: ?
The big thing here is that he writes longer posts. reason - different alignment? or evolving metagame? or just the fact that he is playing the mentor?
Oh and, before I get to the actual reread, let's have a look at his first posts in different games. I thought that could be cute (he was town in Zelda and James Bond)
Here:
Woo. GLHF everyone
Zelda:
Vote: Mail-mi
I think I'm getting the hang of this game
(note that Mali-mi was the IC)
James Bond:
Vote: kingzog as I think he's the only one I have never played with.
Now, the reread:
#74 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434388#msg434388): RVS votes mpspers
#77+: explains general things to noobies
#85 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434414#msg434414): says he just sits there and refreshes the page. heh. also says that I might want to control pit and votes for me
#99: this
please don't accidentally lynch me!
Just letting people know if you are the 5th one to vote for someone and didn't realize that you were the fifth you aren't really able to go back and "unvote" it saying it was by accident. So when people are L-2 or L-1 especially be careful when throwing votes around.
anyways back to me. Looks like I have a wagon on me. Well your all wrong because I'm town. and unless your scum you don't want to kill me. So its pretty obvious that you should vote for scum instead of me.
Then Andrew points out that this post had zero Content
Hydrad says, sorry I'm terrible at day1 stuff. I can't think of a defense
Andrew says, you don't need a defense because there's no case. wise words. He also says, L-2 is not that far away, stop freaking out
#104 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434478#msg434478): says he needs to make sure the noobies understand the concept of L-X, and that's why he's explaining it. He does that a lot.
#140 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434567#msg434567): yet another explanatory post. again about L-X and derphammering
#159 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434594#msg434594)/161 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434596#msg434596): says he thinks my town slip is genuine, even though "scum could easily fake this". Also argues that it really is a town slip, because scum!me would have discussed the setup in the QT. That's a good point.
#171 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434653#msg434653): some unimportant things, but also basically says he is sorry for his scummy meta.
#175 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434677#msg434677): This one is horrible. He responds to ADK, who said he found him towny for his setup posts, and argues that this is easily faked as scum, and that he would have done it as scum. Note that ADK is not a noobie at all.
Then Andrew points out how terrible this post is (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434680#msg434680), mpspers agrees (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434688#msg434688), and then Hydrad responds with this:
Ya I just don't want people to get town reads on me for the wrong reasons. I feel town reads based on things like that are the first ones to fall apart. So while I'm hoping to get town reads on me I don't want them to get town reads on me for the wrong reasons. Although I guess I shouldn't technically care how I get a town read on me.
This post is highly confusing, because first he argues that these kinds of town reads can be bad, which I think is pretty far fetched, but at least it is an explanation, however then he says the opposite, that town reads are good and he should not care how he got them.
Then Awaclus makes his over the top analysis of Hydrad referencing a partner or something, and Hydrad, as expected, says that it wasn't intended (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434783#msg434783). This at least is null.
#198 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434794#msg434794): unvotes and also says he thinks there is scum among the 2 experienced players (ADK, Andrew), and maybe Qvist
#191 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434799#msg434799): encourages Andrew to vote for him, because he has only one vote on him.
#192: A reads post. I'll quote this one:
reasons for my top 3:
Qvist: hasn't posted much and most of his posts don't have a ton of content. But its still early day 1 so its really hard to come up with content right now. Probaably my weakest of the 3.
ADK: seems to have picked me and is sticking with me. I don't think I've ever seen ADK do something like this especially day 1 and just feels weird. He seems to be pretty confident for some reason. Just doesn't feel right.
Andrew: Is voteswapping the most out of everyone. I think he has 4-5 different votes this game. Seems like hes kinda jumping around until he gets a wagon to start on someone to try and get a mislynch.
I think I'm going with Vote: Andrew right now as Qvists isn't that scummy really and I feel a bit better on andrew then ADK.
Also note this is Lynch in 1 for andrew! so the next vote on him will kill him.
Then I make my original case on him (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434803#msg434803). Untypically for him, he doesn't react very much.
Next he has an argument with Andrew about putting people on L-1/L-2. Hydrad says it's good, Andrew says it's scummy, Hydrad says, we need to get the game going somewhere, Andrew says, "what's the rush?", Hydrad responds
"Then we at least have time to analyze the wagons more. When the days die down and no wagons appear until 1-2 days before deadline that usually doesn't end well for town as everyone just kinda gets into a panic mode. Any time the game dies down I think it benifits scum much more then town. So I'm going to try and keep things happening."
#220 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434889#msg434889): says again that he doesn't want to lynch people, but wants them to vote for whoever they think is scum, even if it brings them to L-1 or whatnot.
My hands keep getting cold. Mabye I need to get some of these handwarm thingies again. I guess that's just a part of winter. mhpf.
#269 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436147#msg436147): argues again for the L-x thing. He says he doesn't want to be at L-1, but people are refraining from putting him at L-1 for the wrong reason, hence his earlier posts. This reminds me of my first game, people said, we don't lynch noobies day1, I said, you should lynch me if you think I'm town. I was town there. I only said that because the reason "you're a noobie" is so pointless though. That obviously does not change the probability of me being scum. I wouldn't have argued for things in the like of what happened here.
#270 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436150#msg436150): Talks about gut-feelings and how his aren't the most accurate thing ever, but says they were good in dice mafia. This post sounds genuine to me.
And that's it. Okay, so things that stuck out to me:
-> A LOT of "helping noobies with the setup" posts
-> Long posts
-> A lot of content (relative to Zelda)
-> Continues to argue that we shouldn't spare him for the wrong reasons, in all sorts of different ways
-> explains his votes very carefully
-> targets the more experienced, arguably hardest to read people
-> overreacts to suspicion, but does not write an over the top defense against my original case
Overall, I think this looks bad, but not that bad. I had stronger scum reads on him before. I could see town!Hydrad doing most of the things above, that's just how he plays. I don't like how he targets the vets out of everyone though. I also don't like his massive overreaction early, that's scummy even from him. He could have just panicked as scum there. The longer posts might again be evolving metagame, though it could also be because he has a different alignment. Note that his posts became longer as the game progressed in zelda, and this is early, so the difference is really even bigger.
So, yeah. That's that. I'll keep my vote on pit for no, but I'll definitely do Hydrad if people think that's the best wagon. I think he's like 35% scum or something.
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Wow, Silverspawn, that's some post. However, I think this is very dangerous. Because of this huge post people will think Hydrad to be more suspicious than he already is. I think you can make this post about anybody though, more for some than for others, but still. I have a bad feeling about these long theories on day one, because it's really easy to steer a voting in the direction you want by making these, and that's a thing a scum wouldn't say no to.
About my silence: I've been busy. Also I read the posts, and then either don't feel like I have much to add (I know, everybody should give their opinion, but still), or the posts are discussions between two players, about who I already made a statement and I don't feel like repeating myself.
I'll definitely try to up my post count here. By the way, I think I haven't seen Qvist that much, either. Just saying.
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Little note: I got a feeling of Hydrad-is-a-scum while reading your post Silver, although you don't claim he's scum in it.
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Wow, Silverspawn, that's some post. However, I think this is very dangerous. Because of this huge post people will think Hydrad to be more suspicious than he already is. I think you can make this post about anybody though, more for some than for others, but still. I have a bad feeling about these long theories on day one, because it's really easy to steer a voting in the direction you want by making these, and that's a thing a scum wouldn't say no to.
I'm pretty sure he would write those long posts regardless of being scum or town. I know he wrote many posts of that length in another forum...
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Little note: I got a feeling of Hydrad-is-a-scum while reading your post Silver, although you don't claim he's scum in it.
I think he's like 35% scum or something.
He's not directly claiming hydrad=scum but 35% is pretty high...
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Overall, I think this looks bad, but not that bad. I had stronger scum reads on him before. I could see town!Hydrad doing most of the things above, that's just how he plays. I don't like how he targets the vets out of everyone though. I also don't like his massive overreaction early, that's scummy even from him. He could have just panicked as scum there. The longer posts might again be evolving metagame, though it could also be because he has a different alignment. Note that his posts became longer as the game progressed in zelda, and this is early, so the difference is really even bigger.
So, yeah. That's that. I'll keep my vote on pit for no, but I'll definitely do Hydrad if people think that's the best wagon. I think he's like 35% scum or something.
He still thinks you're more scum than 35%. Also, he neither says Hydrad is scum or Hydrad is town, so I think he's rather neutral. Silver himself could clear this up.
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Unvote
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By the way, I think I haven't seen Qvist that much, either. Just saying.
It's day one, not sure what to talk about. I can't really meta talk or something because I wasn't in that many games.
I will do this, these are my current reads:
Hydrad: I just don't understand his play. I'm not sure if this is scummy or not but it is the scummiest thing I encountered in this game so far. That's why I'm voting for him.
Awaclus: He also did some weird stuff I didn't understand like saying that he "trusts" me in this early phase of the game and then he took it back. But he explained his reasoning quite well, still I have an eye on him.
Anybody else: I have a town read because nothing really caught my eye.
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hmm well this is starting to look bad. I seem to be getting a bunch of suspision on me. Just to get a better idea. Is there anyone that seems to have a town read on me?
Or is everyone either scum/null read on me.
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Wow, Silverspawn, that's some post. However, I think this is very dangerous. Because of this huge post people will think Hydrad to be more suspicious than he already is. I think you can make this post about anybody though, more for some than for others, but still. I have a bad feeling about these long theories on day one, because it's really easy to steer a voting in the direction you want by making these, and that's a thing a scum wouldn't say no to.
with that logic, making cases is always dangerous. but yea, scum could obviously jump on a bad wagon here. but well I didn't even vote for him. I didn't conclude that he's obv scum or anything.
doesn't this logic also work in reverse? if no-one jumps on the wagon, hydrad might be scum?
He's not directly claiming hydrad=scum but 35% is pretty high...
I was spending like 10 seconds on this number. it's not an exact value. but let's see, there are 8 other players, two of them are scum, so default is 25%. ten percent more is not that high. other people are way more confident in their reads.
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By the way, I think I haven't seen Qvist that much, either. Just saying.
It's day one, not sure what to talk about. I can't really meta talk or something because I wasn't in that many games.
I will do this, these are my current reads:
Hydrad: I just don't understand his play. I'm not sure if this is scummy or not but it is the scummiest thing I encountered in this game so far. That's why I'm voting for him.
Awaclus: He also did some weird stuff I didn't understand like saying that he "trusts" me in this early phase of the game and then he took it back. But he explained his reasoning quite well, still I have an eye on him.
Anybody else: I have a town read because nothing really caught my eye.
I'm starting to feel a bit bad about Qvist also again.
His read on me is a reason that gives him an out when I flip town where its kinda a I just didn't understand him. Which I understand can be completely true as town and there is a high chance it is true. But its also a perfect excuse for scum.
Then awaclus read is weird. I think awaclus for most people has a town vibe going on. I think Qvist is the only one kinda suspecting him. This could be him trying to make it so we don't have a IC kinda person to fast and is trying to spread distrust in him?
then everyone else is town. I think this is a common thing as scum. Its really hard to come up with scum reads when you know they are town. It feels like hes not commiting to hard on people being scum because he knows hes wrong.
Thats the vibe I got from that post.
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By the way, I think I haven't seen Qvist that much, either. Just saying.
It's day one, not sure what to talk about. I can't really meta talk or something because I wasn't in that many games.
I will do this, these are my current reads:
Hydrad: I just don't understand his play. I'm not sure if this is scummy or not but it is the scummiest thing I encountered in this game so far. That's why I'm voting for him.
Awaclus: He also did some weird stuff I didn't understand like saying that he "trusts" me in this early phase of the game and then he took it back. But he explained his reasoning quite well, still I have an eye on him.
Anybody else: I have a town read because nothing really caught my eye.
I'm starting to feel a bit bad about Qvist also again.
His read on me is a reason that gives him an out when I flip town where its kinda a I just didn't understand him. Which I understand can be completely true as town and there is a high chance it is true. But its also a perfect excuse for scum.
Then awaclus read is weird. I think awaclus for most people has a town vibe going on. I think Qvist is the only one kinda suspecting him. This could be him trying to make it so we don't have a IC kinda person to fast and is trying to spread distrust in him?
then everyone else is town. I think this is a common thing as scum. Its really hard to come up with scum reads when you know they are town. It feels like hes not commiting to hard on people being scum because he knows hes wrong.
Thats the vibe I got from that post.
hey, these are good points. especially the one about town reads being a scum tell. I'm on the "awaclus is super towny" side, so, it's odd that he suspects him of all people.
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hey, these are good points. especially the one about town reads being a scum tell. I'm on the "awaclus is super towny" side, so, it's odd that he suspects him of all people.
Don't you love slightly bigger text count Hydrad? as long as I'm right...
But I actually like my case on Qvist more then my gut feeling on andrew right now.
so Vote: Qvist
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hmm well this is starting to look bad. I seem to be getting a bunch of suspision on me. Just to get a better idea. Is there anyone that seems to have a town read on me?
Or is everyone either scum/null read on me.
Getting less and less sure about this, but I still have a slightly town read on you.
Running out of battery, will post more later. By the way, what does IC mean?
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hmm well this is starting to look bad. I seem to be getting a bunch of suspision on me. Just to get a better idea. Is there anyone that seems to have a town read on me?
Or is everyone either scum/null read on me.
Getting less and less sure about this, but I still have a slightly town read on you.
Running out of battery, will post more later. By the way, what does IC mean?
Innocent Child. Its a role that usually the mod will say at the beginning of the game that someone is a IC which means they are town. So its kinda like having someone whos power is that everyone knows they are town.
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also you should be trusting your gut here awaclus because your right about me being town! Thats pretty impressive if you actually can read me this well since it seems everyone else is having trouble. But thats probably my fault. Unless your scum. Then thats cheating.
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#175 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434677#msg434677): This one is horrible. He responds to ADK, who said he found him towny for his setup posts, and argues that this is easily faked as scum, and that he would have done it as scum. Note that ADK is not a noobie at all.
Actually he was responding to me. ADK never found Hydrad towny.
Awaclus: He also did some weird stuff I didn't understand like saying that he "trusts" me in this early phase of the game and then he took it back.
(underlining mine)
I guess there was some stuff I did very early that one could consider weird, so in general this argument isn't unreasonable, but I'd like to point out that the underlined part was a misunderstanding and actually never happened.
also you should be trusting your gut here awaclus because your right about me being town! Thats pretty impressive if you actually can read me this well since it seems everyone else is having trouble. But thats probably my fault. Unless your scum. Then thats cheating.
Thanks! Well, I think the main difference here is that everyone else seems to find your reaction to being at L-2 nervous, while it looks like pretty relaxed to me and I literally can't see which aspects of it are supposedly nervous.
His read on me is a reason that gives him an out when I flip town where its kinda a I just didn't understand him. Which I understand can be completely true as town and there is a high chance it is true. But its also a perfect excuse for scum.
Then awaclus read is weird. I think awaclus for most people has a town vibe going on. I think Qvist is the only one kinda suspecting him. This could be him trying to make it so we don't have a IC kinda person to fast and is trying to spread distrust in him?
then everyone else is town. I think this is a common thing as scum. Its really hard to come up with scum reads when you know they are town. It feels like hes not commiting to hard on people being scum because he knows hes wrong.
Thats the vibe I got from that post.
hey, these are good points. especially the one about town reads being a scum tell. I'm on the "awaclus is super towny" side, so, it's odd that he suspects him of all people.
Like Hydrad said, the Hydrad read could be either scummy or towny, and the Awaclus read is probably just a misunderstanding (unless Qvist has something else to say about it), so that leaves us with the "everyone else is town" point. I'm not experienced enough to say how much of a scum tell it is, so I'm not going to say anything about it, but for the time being I think that Pit is probably the scummiest.
Vote: Pit
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also you should be trusting your gut here awaclus because your right about me being town! Thats pretty impressive if you actually can read me this well since it seems everyone else is having trouble. But thats probably my fault. Unless your scum. Then thats cheating.
Thanks! Well, I think the main difference here is that everyone else seems to find your reaction to being at L-2 nervous, while it looks like pretty relaxed to me and I literally can't see which aspects of it are supposedly nervous.
Thanks! I was surprised about this part also. Personally i didn't feel nervous here at all and also couldn't see why everyone thought that. But couldn't really say I wasn't nervous since I didn't think anything in there was like that at all.
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Vote Count 1.8:
Hydrad (3): ADK, AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
xxpittip (2): silverspawn, Awaclus
Qvist (1): Hydrad
Not voting (3): Hugovj, mpsprs, xxpittip
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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Wow, Silverspawn, that's some post. However, I think this is very dangerous. Because of this huge post people will think Hydrad to be more suspicious than he already is. I think you can make this post about anybody though, more for some than for others, but still. I have a bad feeling about these long theories on day one, because it's really easy to steer a voting in the direction you want by making these, and that's a thing a scum wouldn't say no to.
with that logic, making cases is always dangerous. but yea, scum could obviously jump on a bad wagon here. but well I didn't even vote for him. I didn't conclude that he's obv scum or anything.
doesn't this logic also work in reverse? if no-one jumps on the wagon, hydrad might be scum?
Yeah, everybody can be scum, and making a case for everyone could be manipulation, obviously. The thing is, it's day one and this is not making just a case, you really seem to have digged trough all the posts and posted your opinion on them. That's good, but because there is little information on day one, it's more manipulation than if you did this on day 3, because then everybody has already made up there minds. And I already acknowledged that you didn't claim he was scum. It was just my feeling while reading. And what's better than having other people vote for you as scum while you can sit back and relax.
This all isn't really relevant now.
@ Hydrad
I think you're making some weird statements about Qvist's last post.
I'm starting to feel a bit bad about Qvist also again.
His read on me is a reason that gives him an out when I flip town where its kinda a I just didn't understand him. Which I understand can be completely true as town and there is a high chance it is true. But its also a perfect excuse for scum.
Then awaclus read is weird. I think awaclus for most people has a town vibe going on. I think Qvist is the only one kinda suspecting him. This could be him trying to make it so we don't have a IC kinda person to fast and is trying to spread distrust in him?
then everyone else is town. I think this is a common thing as scum. Its really hard to come up with scum reads when you know they are town. It feels like hes not commiting to hard on people being scum because he knows hes wrong.
Thats the vibe I got from that post.
The first one isn't really a reason, as you say yourself 'there is a high chance it is true'. So you think it's a high chance he's town?
Also, the fact that someone has a different opinion than all the others is a town thing for me. As a scum, just following the others is way easier than trying to come up with your own analysis. You agree with me, I see in the last part of this post. That's completely opposite from what you say above that. I agree with you're last point, I think Qvist should have seen more, but still, I think that's no reason to vote for him.
This only makes you more suspicious than you already are for me.
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Wow, Silverspawn, that's some post. However, I think this is very dangerous. Because of this huge post people will think Hydrad to be more suspicious than he already is. I think you can make this post about anybody though, more for some than for others, but still. I have a bad feeling about these long theories on day one, because it's really easy to steer a voting in the direction you want by making these, and that's a thing a scum wouldn't say no to.
About my silence: I've been busy. Also I read the posts, and then either don't feel like I have much to add (I know, everybody should give their opinion, but still), or the posts are discussions between two players, about who I already made a statement and I don't feel like repeating myself.
I'll definitely try to up my post count here. By the way, I think I haven't seen Qvist that much, either. Just saying.
What's wrong with finding Hyrdad suspicious? And Qvist here is coming off to me as the type of player who is posting just enough not to be accused of lurking while being generally agreeable and non-confrontational, which is exactly where scum wants to be. It seems like a lot of people are also calling him scummy without actually voting for him.
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We're getting close-ish to deadline, it looks like the biggest wagons right now are Hydrad, Pit and maybe Qvist? I'm on Hydrad but would switch to the other two. People should get some votes up.
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We're getting close-ish to deadline, it looks like the biggest wagons right now are Hydrad, Pit and maybe Qvist? I'm on Hydrad but would switch to the other two. People should get some votes up.
Is it normal to kill someone on day1? Isn't that really risky, with so little information?
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We're getting close-ish to deadline, it looks like the biggest wagons right now are Hydrad, Pit and maybe Qvist? I'm on Hydrad but would switch to the other two. People should get some votes up.
Is it normal to kill someone on day1? Isn't that really risky, with so little information?
Yes, you pretty much always kill someone on day 1. A no-lynch is usually a terrible idea, because it means you enter day 2 with one less member and almost zero information. If you lynch town, at least you can analyze wagons and that stuff.
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ADK, I never said finding Hydrad suspicious was wrong. I do it myself.
Vote: Hydrad
This puts Hydrad on L-1.
That shouldn't be a surprise, I think.
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We're getting close-ish to deadline, it looks like the biggest wagons right now are Hydrad, Pit and maybe Qvist? I'm on Hydrad but would switch to the other two. People should get some votes up.
I'm not on any of the 3 (and I'm certainly not about to hammer Hydrad). I agree with SS that we need to lynch somebody. Lynch scum > Lynch town > No lynch (not because it's good to lynch town, but that no lynch is worse->as SS pointed out we end up basically in the same spot as before night, except down one player-at least lynch town gives us information to work from).
I still don't feel like I have a read on Hydrad though. I mean, it's not that I would be unwilling to vote Hydrad at the end of the day, but he just seems all over the place.
The problem is I feel even less confident of Pit and Qvist. Clearly I don't approve of pit's play style (hence my earlier vote on him), but that doesn't mean he is scum.
And
And Qvist here is coming off to me as the type of player who is posting just enough not to be accused of lurking while being generally agreeable and non-confrontational, which is exactly where scum wants to be. It seems like a lot of people are also calling him scummy without actually voting for him.
strikes me as on the ball.
There's just not a lot there for either pit or qvist. That makes it hard to justify a day one vote for either (which is probably precisely why scum want to be in that spot). I guess of the three, I'm leaning towards Hydrad (and again, I do not plan to hammer today). But I'd grudgingly be okay with any. I'll do a full readover a some point this evening (hopefully) thinking of each as scum, and see where that leaves me.
I guess the summary is I'm left with the gnawing sense that I don't have enough to vote on, and yet I know that I must vote.
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Don't feel pigeonholed if you don't want to vote for any of them, there's plenty of time for alternate wagon. I talked about them in my latest posts because they're the only one's with votes on them right now, and happen to be some of my top lynch choices. But either of those things could change.
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I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
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I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?
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I may be doing this way to early and I'm sorry for that. But just to make sure I don't want to get quick hammered by somebody.
I'm a PR. I'm really sorry for saying that so early but I think it's needed.
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I'm a PR. I'm really sorry for saying that so early but I think it's needed.
What's a PR?
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I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
This is a thread. That's really, really weird.
Vote: xxpittip
Just to prevent this.
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Power Role?
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Power Role?
Yup
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That's quite easy to say. If you were scum, you'd also say that. So yeah.
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I'm a PR. I'm really sorry for saying that so early but I think it's needed.
What's a PR?
a PR is a player role (PPE that). And there is either one or two town PR's total in this setup, so that's a pretty big claim.
Pit, you never hammer someone without giving him a chance to claim his role. I don't like that Hydrad had to claim already, but well it happened. I think that's enough for us not to lynch him today, either that or we request that he claims his actual role. The advantage of that is that another town can counterclaim, and if Hydrad is scum, we kill him right there. Getting scum day1 would be huge. The disadvantage is, more info for scum. I think I'll come back to that later.
Don't hammer Hydrad now. Whoever hammers is auto scum.
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Don't feel pigeonholed if you don't want to vote for any of them, there's plenty of time for alternate wagon. I talked about them in my latest posts because they're the only one's with votes on them right now, and happen to be some of my top lynch choices. But either of those things could change.
Thanks for the encouragement. I will look at others too, and if I prefer another, I'll at least try to make a case.
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That's quite easy to say. If you were scum, you'd also say that. So yeah.
It is. Until we claim and then I'll have to claim first most likely. And when I do that unless I get super lucky and guess a role that works with the other people that have power roles I get lynched right away. So it something that is a really high risk for scum to say this early.
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I'm going to need to hear which PR you are, otherwise you could easily be keeping your options open to avoid being caught in a lie.
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I agree with ADK, without the specific role, there's nothing to go on.
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I'm going to need to hear which PR you are, otherwise you could easily be keeping your options open to avoid being caught in a lie.
Wait. Wait. Let me do an analysis here. Maybe it's better if he keeps his role a secret.
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We have to determine how helpful it is for scum to know the exact role.
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I'm going to need to hear which PR you are, otherwise you could easily be keeping your options open to avoid being caught in a lie.
I'll gladly say it first when we claim. But I think me keeping quiet for at least the first NK is really importent. That way lets say there is a doctor in this setup. Scum might waste teir shot on me since they don't know the setup if a doctor heals me. I feel like letting scum know what setup we are in on night one is really bad. And unless everyone wants me to claim I think I should wait.
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So now this is interesting. To me it looks like he is scum grasping at straws rather than being an actual Power Role. I agree that we need to hear his actual power role.
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I don't think it's likely that they get an advantage. If they have the Roleblocker, they'll block him (if he's not lying). If they don't, they'll probably just kill him.
PPE: Maybe that's right, let me look at the setup.
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PPE? Can't find it in the lingo list.
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PPE? Can't find it in the lingo list.
Pre-post edit. Usually means you wrote the post, then when you went to post it, you read new things that people had just posted, and made an addendum to your post.
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Pre-post edit. People posted stuff while I was writing my post, so I wrote more stuff to take that into account. You get a red warning box.
Looking at the setup, I realize that there might be an advantage to keeping a PR hidden. So I'm willing to let Hydrad live for now, if he's scum he'll get caught in the lie eventually.
vote: pit that's L-1.
PPE: Like that!
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Now that he claimed a Power Role and let's assume he's actually right, that means he's likely going to get killed by mafia this night anyway, right? So, the benefit of knowing that he has a power role is not great. There is only one scenario where it might be helpful I can think of. But before I mention that, I like to hear him claim.
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If he's not the doctor and there is a doctor, he could be protected.
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This is actually kinda complicated, even with such a simple setup. we have to differ between a whole bunch of cases.
The Setup:
#1: JK
#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
#3: BP, Tracker
#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
#5: Cop
#6: Doctor, Tracker
(JK = Jailkeeper, BP = 1-shot Bulletproof). Goons and Vanilla townies excluded. Roels are Town unless I write Mafia before them):
Let's say he does not claim. How much does scum know about the setup? There is only one possible scum role, which is roleblocker. So scum either knows we're in #2/4, or we're in #1/3/5/6.
If we're in #1/3/5/6, then there is a 12,5% chance for a non-Hydrad doctor. This is essential, because a doctor is a good reason for scum not to NK Hydrad. There is also a 12,5% chance that Hydrad is BP, in which case scum probably doesn't want to shoot him. But he could also be Tracker (2), JK, and most importantly, Cop. So, I think scum will just shoot him.
If we're in #2/4, there is a 50% chance that Hydrad can be protected, and also a 25% chance that he is BP. So, scum probably doesn't shoot him here.
So, if Hydrad doesn't claim, I think there is a 2/3 chance that he will be shot.
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I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?
Yes i'm already at L-2 (when i wrote that L-3). Silver already thinks of me as #1 scum suspect and i know the he can convince people of his opinion, if he wants. Killing hydrad now could make me the primary day2 target if he's town.
(i won't vote for hydrad tomorrow, unless something happens that makes him look really scummy, which is pretty unlikely.)
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How did i get to L-1 by posting something that gave us so much important information?
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I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?
Yes i'm already at L-2 (when i wrote that L-3). Silver already thinks of me as #1 scum suspect and i know the he can convince people of his opinion, if he wants. Killing hydrad now could make me the primary day2 target if he's town.
(i won't vote for hydrad tomorrow, unless something happens that makes him look really scummy, which is pretty unlikely.)
Well a lot's changed with Hydrad's semi-claim, but my point is that being overly aware of your actions being suspicious is in itself somewhat scummy. Town knows they're innocent and won't be as self-aware, while scum knows they're guilty. I also don't think that hammering is a scummy as everyone else seems to (I'm talking about F.ds in general), a lynch is made of a bunch of people.
PPE: well it's not like you were planning that.
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So, if Hydrad doesn't claim, I think there is a 2/3 chance that he will be shot.
The math seems fine to me (there are some WIFOM scenarios-but those are necessarily hard to quantify).
But this doesn't take into account the possibility that Hydrad is scum fake-PR-claiming. So there is somewhere under a 2/3 chance that he will be night-killed.
How did i get to L-1 by posting something that gave us so much important information?
Well a lot's changed with Hydrad's semi-claim, but my point is that being overly aware of your actions being suspicious is in itself somewhat scummy. Town knows they're innocent and won't be as self-aware, while scum knows they're guilty. I also don't think that hammering is a scummy as everyone else seems to (I'm talking about F.ds in general), a lynch is made of a bunch of people.
PPE: well it's not like you were planning that.
I don't think hammering in and of itself I don't think is especially scummy. It's the show up and threaten to hammer quickly with 3 days left that is a bit more scummy. Not as scummy as actually just hammering
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The Setup:
#1: JK
#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
#3: BP, Tracker
#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
#5: Cop
#6: Doctor, Tracker
(JK = Jailkeeper, BP = 1-shot Bulletproof). Goons and Vanilla townies excluded. Roels are Town unless I write Mafia before them):
Now let's say he claims.
#1: JK
In this case it does not matter whether he claims, because scum would have shot either way, and Hydrad would have died either way.
#3: BP, Tracker
a) BP. If he claims BP, claiming is bad, because now scum doesn't shoot him. (1/12)
b) Tracker. If he claims Tracker, scum knows that there's now 50% chance for a doctor, so they probably don't shoot. In this case, claiming is good (1/12)
#5: Cop
In this case it does not matter whether he claims, because scum would have shot either way, and Hydrad would have died either way.
#6: Doctor, Tracker
a) Doctor. Scum shoots for sure, but probably would have shot anyway
b) Tracker. Akin to #3. Scum knows there's now 50% chance for a doctor, so they won't shoot (probably). In this case, claiming is bad, because they would have shot (and no-killed, because Hydrad could have been doctored) otherwise. (1/12)
#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
a) Cop. Scum knows the setup. Scum will not shoot. But they would not have shot anyway.
b) Doctor. Scum knows the setup. Scum will shoot. They would not have shot otherwise. Claiming is bad (1/12)
#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
a) JK. Scum knows the setup. Scum will shoot. They would have have shot otherwise. Claiming is bad (1/12)
b) BP. Scum knows the setup. Scum will not shoot. But they would not have shot anyway.
So, overall, we have 4/12 bad, 1/12 good for a claim, and 7/12 no difference.
But that's jsut assuming he is town. If he is scum, it looks completely different. And I guess he could even be a VT fakeclaiming a PR to survive. Though that'd be very un-Hydradish, so I think we can assume that's not the case
PPE 4
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I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
You're that scared of attracting suspicion, huh?
Yes i'm already at L-2 (when i wrote that L-3). Silver already thinks of me as #1 scum suspect and i know the he can convince people of his opinion, if he wants. Killing hydrad now could make me the primary day2 target if he's town.
(i won't vote for hydrad tomorrow, unless something happens that makes him look really scummy, which is pretty unlikely.)
Well a lot's changed with Hydrad's semi-claim, but my point is that being overly aware of your actions being suspicious is in itself somewhat scummy. Town knows they're innocent and won't be as self-aware, while scum knows they're guilty. I also don't think that hammering is a scummy as everyone else seems to (I'm talking about F.ds in general), a lynch is made of a bunch of people.
PPE: well it's not like you were planning that.
Ofc i didn't know that he would tell us about being a PR, but i knew that he would react to a threat like that and every reaction gives us information (in most cases not this much, but imo every bit of information counts).
The fact that i'm now at L-1 just underlines my point about being scared of attracting suspicion...
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and it's also assuming Hydrad didn't think anything about the setup when he said he has a PR (and therefore all cases have equal probability) and it doesn't take into account how good or bad something is.
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I'm sold on keeping Hydrad alive for now. If he's alive tomorrow, we should probably have him full claim before anything else happens.
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How did i get to L-1 by posting something that gave us so much important information?
With "you" you mean "your scum faction"?
If town PR's claim, that's good for scum. It's bad for town.
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Mh, I was going to do the "what if Hydrad is scum" part, but I'm not sure it's a good idea, because it helps him to get safe fakeclaims.
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It's also true that with this setup, it's pretty much impossible for scum to fakeclaim, on day one at least. I'm not really used to playing setups like that.
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How did i get to L-1 by posting something that gave us so much important information?
With "you" you mean "your scum faction"?
If town PR's claim, that's good for scum. It's bad for town.
What you don't think about is that he could already be dead by now if someone would have voted for him. We could've lost our most important player if he really is a PR.
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We wouldn't have lynched him without giving him a chance to claim. We've probably lost him anyway if he isn't lying.
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Are you actually saying that you threatened to hammer Hydrad, to make me switch my vote to you, so Hydrad wouldn't get lynched?
That's the stupidest thing I've heard in a long time. And I'm counting jsh saying that Scout was a good card.
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Mh, I was going to do the "what if Hydrad is scum" part, but I'm not sure it's a good idea, because it helps him to get safe fakeclaims.
That's fine with me. And I agree with it. (Let him work it out on his own). But we do know which way it swings the percentages, for our decision making.
My comment also was before I knew your post was continuing, and makes less sense I think when faced with the whole thing.
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Are you actually saying that you threatened to hammer Hydrad, to make me switch my vote to you, so Hydrad wouldn't get lynched?
That's the stupidest thing I've heard in a long time. And I'm counting jsh saying that Scout was a good card.
No i said, that any players that didn't already vote for him could have hammered him.
We wouldn't have lynched him without giving him a chance to claim.
That is exactly what i did...
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Right, you were posting intent to hammer, my bad. Well, who's your second choice for lynch?
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Eh, I'll do it anyway. I think scum!hydrad would figure this out himself.
The Setup:
#1: JK
#2: Cop, Doctor, Mafia Roleblocker
#3: BP, Tracker
#4: JK, BP, Mafia Roleblocker
#5: Cop
#6: Doctor, Tracker
(JK = Jailkeeper, BP = 1-shot Bulletproof). Goons and Vanilla townies excluded. Roels are Town unless I write Mafia before them):
Now let's say he is scum. Can he find a safe claim?
if it's Setup #2 or #4, and scum!Hydrad claims... (ccc = counter claim chance)
... cop, doctor, JK, or BP -> ccc = 50% (the PR can counterclaim if it exists)
... Tracker -> ccc = 100% (Cop, JK, and BP can counterclaim)
so he has to claim one of the 4 and hope he gets lucky.
If it's Setup #1/3/5/7, and scum!Hydrad claims...
... JK -> ccc = 100% (every role except BP can counterclaim)
... Cop -> ccc = 100% (every role except Doctor can counterclaim)
... Doctor -> ccc = 75% (every role except Cop can counterclaim (setup #5 is safe))
... BP -> ccc = 75% (setup #1 is safe)
... Tracker -> ccc = 100%
So, this looks mighty bad. Scum can't really fakeclaim very well. And these are all only the probabilities for an immediate counterclaim from one PR, once we massclaim, all claims are unsafe.
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Vote Count 1.9:
Hydrad (2): AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
xxpittip (4): silverspawn, Awaclus, Hugovj, ADK
Qvist (1): Hydrad
Not voting (2): mpsprs, xxpittip
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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What you don't think about is that he could already be dead by now if someone would have voted for him. We could've lost our most important player if he really is a PR.
Yes. But that wasn't going to happen. Hugo very kindly informed us that Hydrad was at L-1. The rest of us were considering our option. In particular, I said I was going to look things over, and that I definitely was not going to hammer quickly. The closest anyone has come to hammering (causing us to potentially lose "our most important player") is you.
In other words, your argument is absurd.
PPE:
No i said, that any players that didn't already vote for him could have hammered him.
We wouldn't have lynched him without giving him a chance to claim.
That is exactly what i did...
This is very barely true. But actually what you said was:
I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
Which seems quite different to me.
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So, based on all that, I think Hydrad should full claim. If he is scum, we immediately catch him, and if he is town, there is only a 3/12 chance that it's bad for us, and a 1/12 chance that it's even good for us.
Of course it also depends on his role, but we can't really consider that. If hydrad doesn't claim because he knows it's bad to claim with his role, he gives scum the same information indirectly by not claiming.
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So yea. Claim buddy. Unless someone disagrees...?
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Scum can't actually fakeclaim anything. Either they claim something a real PR has, or they claim something that can't coexist with an a real PR and that person speaks up(and if you're that person in that position, please speak up).
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The thing is I don't think scum fakeclaims at all here, so I'm okay with Hydrad keeping quiet.
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Scum can't actually fakeclaim anything. Either they claim something a real PR has, or they claim something that can't coexist with an a real PR and that person speaks up(and if you're that person in that position, please speak up).
that's not true, if we have setup #2 or #4, scum can claim anythin except tracker, and have 50% to get away with it, (see my post). Unless I messed up.
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Pit is one of my favorite people to lynch right now, I would be fine with Hydrad or Qvist too but I don't find them as scummy. I'll reread Hugovj, I think he hasn't been discussed enough and I remember finding him scummy earlier.
Post #110: Massive overstatement about Hydrad's reaction. This is subjective and I'm apparently the only one who doesn't even think that Hydrad was particularly nervous, but I think it doesn't sound completely outrageous to suggest that he was slightly nervous or something like that, even though I don't see it myself. However, there's just no way that is "total panic". Then another overstatement, this time about Andrew, and it doesn't even make any sense, and then he votes for Andrew. I find that strange: I'd expect a vote for Hydrad here based on what he wrote, but he voted for Andrew instead.
A bunch posts where he repeats himself about the Hydrad case and how Hydrad seems scummy, while he still keeps voting for Andrew and not Hydrad. Also some stuff that I find completely irrelevant.
Post #260: Defends Pit, continues to make more points against Hydrad. Now he unvotes Andrew, but still doesn't vote for Hydrad because he doesn't want to put him at L-1. I think this might be slightly towny actually, because scum would want to have Hydrad at L-1 (unless he's his partner), but OTOH it could also be scum trying to appear less scummy.
Post #292: Here he says that people will think that Hydrad is scummy "because of this huge post" by Silverspawn. How convenient is that, now he doesn't have to be responsible for Hydrad potentially being lynched, it's this huge post here that's the real culprit. By the person who has been the most actively accusing Pit of being scum, too.
Then, a couple of more posts attacking Hydrad and finally voting for him.
Ok. Wow. I have been reluctant to make strong statements in this game so far, but perhaps I'm bold enough and say that this makes perfect sense. Thoughts?
My favorite person to lynch right now is Hugovj. I'm still very much fine with the Pit lynch too, and maybe Hydrad or Qvist, but I'll vote: Hugovj now since he doesn't have any votes on him.
PPE: Wow, a lot of stuff happened (44+5 new replies). Doesn't change anything about my read of Hugovj though.
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also if not, scum can claim Doctor or BP and have 25% to get away with it. That's bad, but it's not impossible.
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@ SS: A cop, for example, knows there isn't a JK. So if Hydrad is scum and claims JK, the cop speaks up. A fakeclaiming scum has a 100% chance of getting caught.
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Eh, wonder if I should've kept my vote on Pit after all. Probably yeah, considering what happened there. Vote: Pit and this is L-1 again.
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Uh that might be the lynch?
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Just in case it isn't, SS, my point is that scum doesn't just have to claim a role that no one has, when they claim a role real PRs know that their own PR precludes it. So scum can't fakeclaim.
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That's not the lynch, nevermind.
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Uh that might be the lynch?
It's not, I was voting for Pit when he had 4 votes and then I changed to Hugovj, immediately regretted doing so and changed back to Pit.
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@ SS: A cop, for example, knows there isn't a JK. So if Hydrad is scum and claims JK, the cop speaks up. A fakeclaiming scum has a 100% chance of getting caught.
let's say we have setup #1. Scum claims BP. The only PR is JK. But there is a setup with JK and BP, that's setup #4. So, JK can't counterclaim. There is your 25%.
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Uh that might be the lynch?
It's not, I was voting for Pit when he had 4 votes and then I changed to Hugovj, immediately regretted doing so and changed back to Pit.
Yeah, I caught that. Would have been interesting if it was, though.
PPE: Okay, that's true. So the only safe fakeclaim for scum is BP?
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Likewise, if scum claims Doctor, and we have setup #5, the cop cannot counterclaim, because there is a setup with doctor and cop, that's setup #2. There you have the other 25%.
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Scum can't actually fakeclaim anything. Either they claim something a real PR has, or they claim something that can't coexist with an a real PR and that person speaks up(and if you're that person in that position, please speak up).
This is not true in 1 out of 3 setups: If we have the Vanilla Town, Cop and Mafia Goon column, and scum claims Doctor, the cop doesn't know immediately of the false claim.
There's a similar case if we are the Jailkeeper, Vanilla Town, Mafia Goon row, and scum claims BP. Jailkeeper doesn't know.
And nobody else has a PR to give info.
PPE: Looks like while I was working on this, you guys got there. I'm pretty sure this is it though. Otherwise we have 2 roles, and that works to out the fakeclaim.
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What you don't think about is that he could already be dead by now if someone would have voted for him. We could've lost our most important player if he really is a PR.
Yes. But that wasn't going to happen. Hugo very kindly informed us that Hydrad was at L-1. The rest of us were considering our option. In particular, I said I was going to look things over, and that I definitely was not going to hammer quickly. The closest anyone has come to hammering (causing us to potentially lose "our most important player") is you.
In other words, your argument is absurd.
PPE:
It's not absurd. I was actually about to hammer him, when i thought that i shouldn't hammer him just because it is fun to hammer people. That's why i assumed there could be more people who could vote him just because they like hammering. I don't think anyone would hammer him in the time limit i set, because that would seem really weird.
No i said, that any players that didn't already vote for him could have hammered him.
We wouldn't have lynched him without giving him a chance to claim.
That is exactly what i did...
This is very barely true. But actually what you said was:
I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
Which seems quite different to me.
It is pretty much the same with the only exception that it applies more pressure to him, what generally forces stronger reactions = more information.
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So there are a couple of safe fakeclaims. But I think fakeclaiming scum is more likely to just outright claim one of those, maybe?
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I think I messed up the top half of my last post though.
... cop, doctor, JK, or BP -> ccc = 50% (the PR can counterclaim if it exists)
because I only considered setups 2 and 4, but we don't know that it is one of these two setups, only scum does. so, let me check these again...
they are actually all 100%. so, this is correct:
if it's Setup #2 or #4, ccc = 100%
If it's Setup #1/3/5/7, and scum!Hydrad claims...
... JK -> ccc = 100% (every role except BP can counterclaim)
... Cop -> ccc = 100% (every role except Doctor can counterclaim)
... Doctor -> ccc = 75% (every role except Cop can counterclaim (setup #5 is safe))
... BP -> ccc = 75% (setup #1 is safe)
... Tracker -> ccc = 100%
so yea, that's two 75% and rest 100% for a counter claim. so, scum can basically not fakeclaim.
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So there are a couple of safe fakeclaims. But I think fakeclaiming scum is more likely to just outright claim one of those, maybe?
I'm not so sure. PR role claiming without outright leaves open the possibility that we don't ask for more, which leads to near 100% survival. Outright claiming one of those "safe" claims is still outed in 5/6 cases (since they have to guess which one to try, and for each only 1 actual scenario lets them be safe.)
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If Hydrad's alive tomorrow, we can have him full claim first thing.
PPE: I think a scum fakeclaiming is going to try and out a role, rather than actually survive, though.
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to be completely exact, there is a 2/3 chance that scum gets a 25% safe fakeclaim, and a 1/3 chance that they get 0%. and even if they get away with their 25%, they die to a massclaim. so, fakeclaiming is suicide.
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Okay, but that's actually an argument for a fullclaim. Why don't you want him to fullclaim? We just figured out that he has almost no chance to survive if he's scum, and if my first setup posts are true, it doesn't hurt us very much if he claims as town either.
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It could potentially hurt us a little, and there's basically no reason not to wait until tomorrow. We just shouldn't wait until lylo.
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And note that scum!hydrad might not have figured out the setup enough to know that he can't get away with a fakeclaim. He is used to setups where scum can fakeclaim, so maybe he just paniced, said he is a PR, and thought he'd figure out which claim is safe later.
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It could potentially hurt us a little, and there's basically no reason not to wait until tomorrow. We just shouldn't wait until lylo.
But there are reasons.
1) if he is the roleblocker (1/6), scum can't roleblock N1
2) if he is any scum, we know much more going into day2.
I think these outweight the negatives. I still think he should claim.
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And note that scum!hydrad might not have figured out the setup enough to know that he can't get away with a fakeclaim. He is used to setups where scum can fakeclaim, so maybe he just paniced, said he is a PR, and thought he'd figure out which claim is safe later.
Personally I don't think I was in a bad enough spot as scum there to need to fakeclaim. I think if I really tried to ensure my survival I could of pushed pit and seen if we could get a pit lynch going. If I was scum I would of waited longer until I knew I was going to die before I try a claim like this.
I guess you can't believe me though.
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Yeah, okay. I'm back to wanting a full claim now.
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PPE: I think a scum fakeclaiming is going to try and out a role, rather than actually survive, though.
Fair enough. But partial claiming leaves open the full fake-claiming later if need be. Partial is almost surely enough to stop the immediate hammer.
to be completely exact, there is a 2/3 chance that scum gets a 25% safe fakeclaim, and a 1/3 chance that they get 0%. and even if they get away with their 25%, they die to a massclaim. so, fakeclaiming is suicide.
I still make it out as exactly 1/6 that a fakeclaim is undetectable. We have to be in 2/6 setups, and then scum has to guess of those 2 which we're in. And massclaim does not stop that. It's still suicidal, but if the alternative is being lynched, why not? I suppose the question is, how sure was Hydrad that he was the lynch option.
PPE: Well he's answered that last question. But why claim then at all? Why not try and push the wagon elsewhere, as you said you could. Even if xxpittip is town, lynching vanilla town is better than PR town!
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Pit is one of my favorite people to lynch right now, I would be fine with Hydrad or Qvist too but I don't find them as scummy. I'll reread Hugovj, I think he hasn't been discussed enough and I remember finding him scummy earlier.
Post #110: Massive overstatement about Hydrad's reaction. This is subjective and I'm apparently the only one who doesn't even think that Hydrad was particularly nervous, but I think it doesn't sound completely outrageous to suggest that he was slightly nervous or something like that, even though I don't see it myself. However, there's just no way that is "total panic". Then another overstatement, this time about Andrew, and it doesn't even make any sense, and then he votes for Andrew. I find that strange: I'd expect a vote for Hydrad here based on what he wrote, but he voted for Andrew instead.
A bunch posts where he repeats himself about the Hydrad case and how Hydrad seems scummy, while he still keeps voting for Andrew and not Hydrad. Also some stuff that I find completely irrelevant.
Post #260: Defends Pit, continues to make more points against Hydrad. Now he unvotes Andrew, but still doesn't vote for Hydrad because he doesn't want to put him at L-1. I think this might be slightly towny actually, because scum would want to have Hydrad at L-1 (unless he's his partner), but OTOH it could also be scum trying to appear less scummy.
Post #292: Here he says that people will think that Hydrad is scummy "because of this huge post" by Silverspawn. How convenient is that, now he doesn't have to be responsible for Hydrad potentially being lynched, it's this huge post here that's the real culprit. By the person who has been the most actively accusing Pit of being scum, too.
Then, a couple of more posts attacking Hydrad and finally voting for him.
Ok. Wow. I have been reluctant to make strong statements in this game so far, but perhaps I'm bold enough and say that this makes perfect sense. Thoughts?
My favorite person to lynch right now is Hugovj. I'm still very much fine with the Pit lynch too, and maybe Hydrad or Qvist, but I'll vote: Hugovj now since he doesn't have any votes on him.
PPE: Wow, a lot of stuff happened (44+5 new replies). Doesn't change anything about my read of Hugovj though.
If you had 49 replies, that was a long post to create.
Anyway, about the overstatement. As good as nothing had happened, I recall, and I thought Hydrad was overreacting. Maybe I shouldn't have used such strong language, but I don't think that's really relevant. The vote for Andrew, I thought I should vote. You just put Hydrad on L-2, and I believe someone said we don't lynch people before the discussion has really taken place, and I thought that a L-1 vote would not be very good at that moment already. So I voted instead for my second candidate. In hindsight, I think I should have said that, but now you know.
This was still the case during the rest of the day, and Andrew was more a gutfeel, so there wasn't really a case to be made.
If you found stuff irrelevant, yeah. Could be. Half the stuff everybody said was irrelevant in some way.
Also, yeah, at that point I thought of the fact I was still voting Andrew, and that was a bit outdated. My vote for Hydrad would have been a L-1 again, and I still found it a bit too early, so that's why I waited a little longer.
And that last post, if you've read it, you'd see I say that posting large theories on day one is a bit dangerous because others will get influenced. There will be more information on Hydrad than on me, for instance, so a vote on Hydrad is easier to explain.
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Anyway, about the overstatement. As good as nothing had happened, I recall, and I thought Hydrad was overreacting. Maybe I shouldn't have used such strong language, but I don't think that's really relevant. The vote for Andrew, I thought I should vote. You just put Hydrad on L-2, and I believe someone said we don't lynch people before the discussion has really taken place, and I thought that a L-1 vote would not be very good at that moment already. So I voted instead for my second candidate. In hindsight, I think I should have said that, but now you know.
Oh. Right. That makes sense too. I'm not sure if one's choice of words is irrelevant though, you can influence a lot of things.
And that last post, if you've read it, you'd see I say that posting large theories on day one is a bit dangerous because others will get influenced. There will be more information on Hydrad than on me, for instance, so a vote on Hydrad is easier to explain.
Yes, I read it, and I saw that, and that's what I was commenting on.
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And besides, if I wanted to use that as an excuse, it's pretty stupid to be accusing Hydrad all day, isn't it?
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That-> referring to the post by Silverspawn
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And besides, if I wanted to use that as an excuse, it's pretty stupid to be accusing Hydrad all day, isn't it?
Yes, yes it is.
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So, let's assume I'm not stupid.
I won't hide behind Silverspawn if Hydrad gets lynched, which isn't going to happen now.
You're argument is a hypothetical one, but it really doesn't work unless I have a chance to hide, which I haven't done nor do I showed any intention on doing that.
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Hydrad are you around to full claim?
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I'm here but I still would rather not. I know you and SS want me to claim. but there are people still opposing the claim also. I think its better for town for me to wait till tomorrow still.
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Who doesn't want Hydrad to claim?
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I think I've heard nobody saying you shouldn't full claim. Go ahead.
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ah I guess I thought mps thought I shouldn't claim but now that I look over it its more the mps never full out said I should claim. But never really opposed it either.
I'll also state that I think the best move for me is to actually hammer pit. and I'm seriously debating it because I think me claiming here is just the incorrect move.
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Unvote
Go ahead and claim.
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Vote Count 1.10:
Hydrad (2): AndrewisFTTW, Qvist
xxpittip (3): silverspawn, ADK, Awaclus
Qvist (1): Hydrad
Not voting (3): mpsprs, xxpittip, Hugovj
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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sigh I really want to know if you guys would of hammered in my situation as i think it was the correct move
I'm a 1shot BP. I claimed a bit earlier then normal to hope that I wouldn't need to full claim and then scum would shoot me. But now I've claimed and unless there is a tracker in the game I'm not even an IC.
I really think I should of hammered there. If I had more guts I totally would of.
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Man if you had hammered right there I would have called for you to be auto-lynched tomorrow, like for real. Also it's interesting that you claimed one of the two possible safe fakeclaims, and the only PR that could be reasonably expected not to be NK'd.
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This is a tough call now, too. I mean do we care about losing an outed BP? If he's telling the truth he won't get shot now, so his powers useless. I'm not sure I believe him.
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Man if you had hammered right there I would have called for you to be auto-lynched tomorrow, like for real. Also it's interesting that you claimed one of the two possible safe fakeclaims, and the only PR that could be reasonably expected not to be NK'd.
and thats why I really didn't want to claim. Because it doesn't even look safe right now. Its the best one for scum to fake claim. But if you were a 1shot BP you really think hammering was such a bad move there? I feel like pit might get lynched anyways. And if we do hit scum plus I don't have to claim we would be in such a strong spot as they might of tried to shoot me to make up for it.
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How certain are you that pit is scum?
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How certain are you that pit is scum?
not much. I would be mainly trusting SS with his reads. For a day1 lynch I would be fine with it but as you can see I'm not even voting for him. If it was someone I already felt was scum then I really would of hammered him right there. I guess self preservation helps a bit it encouraging that vote also. But ya my biggest worry was if I did hit town scum probably wouldn't even try to shoot me as i could be a easy mislynch the next day and I would of messed things up even more.
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How certain are you that pit is scum?
not much. I would be mainly trusting SS with his reads. For a day1 lynch I would be fine with it but as you can see I'm not even voting for him. If it was someone I already felt was scum then I really would of hammered him right there. I guess self preservation helps a bit it encouraging that vote also. But ya my biggest worry was if I did hit town scum probably wouldn't even try to shoot me as i could be a easy mislynch the next day and I would of messed things up even more.
So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying you were considering hammering someone you didn't have a strong opinion on just to avoid claiming a role that isn't likely to get you NK'd.
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How certain are you that pit is scum?
not much. I would be mainly trusting SS with his reads. For a day1 lynch I would be fine with it but as you can see I'm not even voting for him. If it was someone I already felt was scum then I really would of hammered him right there. I guess self preservation helps a bit it encouraging that vote also. But ya my biggest worry was if I did hit town scum probably wouldn't even try to shoot me as i could be a easy mislynch the next day and I would of messed things up even more.
So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying you were considering hammering someone you didn't have a strong opinion on just to avoid claiming a role that isn't likely to get you NK'd.
If i didn't claim and they thought I was a cop or something and tried to shoot me that would of protected us from losing someone overnight is what I thought.
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Well, this is one of the 3/12 where his claim did in fact hurt. that's unfortunate. And it's one of the 25% fakeclaim cases.
things we can do now:
massclaim to be sure -> horrible idea
lynch hydrad anyway -> doesn't sound good. 25% is just too little.
don't lynch hydrad and trust his claim -> not great but the best alternative
so yea, I think we should let him live for now.
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I mean, if someone does have a claim that contradicts Hydrad, they should speak up.
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I mean, if someone does have a claim that contradicts Hydrad, they should speak up.
They don't so you don't have to worry about that.
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I mean, if someone does have a claim that contradicts Hydrad, they should speak up.
Oh yea, of course. If you are either Cop, Doctor, or 1-shot Bulletproof, you should claim immediately. Don't worry about revealing PR's. If you claim Hydrad is auto scum, and lynching one of two scum day1 is absolutely worth revealing any Power. If you are Tracker or Jailkeeper, don't claim.
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Guys slow down! I can't keep up, I'm old!
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assuming Hydrad tells the truth, let's see what that means for our setup:
6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Cop, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Doctor, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons
these two are possible. So, we either have a Tracker, or a Jailkeeper, and if it's the latter, Mafia has a roleblocker.
which also means, even though a Tracker could confirm Hydrad's claim, he should absolutely not do so, because then he just gets roleblocked.
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which also means, even though a Tracker could confirm Hydrad's claim, he should absolutely not do so, because then he just gets roleblocked.
uhh nevermind he doesn't. Tracker is the setup without the roleblocker.
but he still shouldn't claim, because then he just gets NK'd. small difference.
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I may be doing this way to early and I'm sorry for that. But just to make sure I don't want to get quick hammered by somebody.
I'm a PR. I'm really sorry for saying that so early but I think it's needed.
*Forehead slap*
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I may be doing this way to early and I'm sorry for that. But just to make sure I don't want to get quick hammered by somebody.
I'm a PR. I'm really sorry for saying that so early but I think it's needed.
*Forehead slap*
ya my plan ended up crashing and burning pretty hard.
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All caught up, what a mess. Let that be a lesson to you all, just because you're at L-1 does not necessarily mean you're about to get lynched.
Well, this is one of the 3/12 where his claim did in fact hurt. that's unfortunate. And it's one of the 25% fakeclaim cases.
things we can do now:
massclaim to be sure -> horrible idea
lynch hydrad anyway -> doesn't sound good. 25% is just too little.
don't lynch hydrad and trust his claim -> not great but the best alternative
so yea, I think we should let him live for now.
I agree. This is sad.
Well, my other scum read would be Qvist. He kinda pops up here and there being very calm and reasonable but not really getting into anything. He also immediately wanted Hydrad to claim which is fine, but it seemed like he didn't stop to consider the benefits of not hearing a full claim and tried to get the most information he could right away. Suspicious.
vote: Qvist
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All caught up, what a mess. Let that be a lesson to you all, just because you're at L-1 does not necessarily mean you're about to get lynched.
Ya If I was a different role I wouldn't of claimed that fast. It was my hope that I wouldn't have to claim today and that I would waste their night shot. Thats why I claimed earlier then normal.
At the time I thought it would work out much better then this though.
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All caught up, what a mess. Let that be a lesson to you all, just because you're at L-1 does not necessarily mean you're about to get lynched.
Ya If I was a different role I wouldn't of claimed that fast. It was my hope that I wouldn't have to claim today and that I would waste their night shot. Thats why I claimed earlier then normal.
At the time I thought it would work out much better then this though.
Yes but by not fully claiming town would be suspicious and scum would figure out real quick that you're bulletproof.
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I'm working through rereading everything again. Got through Awaclus (and I still have a town vibe. Generally very useful. Gets confusing and weird around post 182 when you say that Hydrad's behavior suggests a Hydrad/Awaclus pairing, but mostly nice).
But I wanted to address the Hydrad situation before bed. I think I'm swayed by the claim. We haven't had a counter-claim, and while that's not guaranteed then that the claim is valid, it is odds on. So I won't completely ignore the possibility that we've been had, but it'll be on the back burner now.
So with that, I'd like us to take another look at ADK, Andrew and Qvist. They have been the three consistent voters for Hydrad. I wonder how likely it is that none of the three is scum. It's certainly possible. But given the (what several of us saw as) erratic play from Hydrad, scum may well have wanted to plant a vote there early and see what develops. I'll do this too, (but not til tomorrow)
Also, SS, I'm still a bit confused by the 25% figure you keep using for a fake-claim succeeding. I see 6 setups. In two, a fakeclaim succeeds. But scum have to guess which of the two, so 1 in 6 (~16.7%). Or maybe you're doing it from a scum perspective: If there is roleblocker, no fakeclaim can succeed; there are 4 other setups-2 have a fakeclaim available, but they have to guess, giving the 1/4?
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I think he's doing it from the scum perspective. Scum knows that we're either in one of the roleblocker setups or one of the no-RB setups, so they know which claim might be safe.
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So, he claimed to be BP and no-one counterclaimed. This is exactly the one scenario I was worried about. At least we have basically an IC now. Unvote
But I have now no real clue who to vote for. I think given the recent events I have to reread everything and then I post my new findings.
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Or maybe you're doing it from a scum perspective: If there is roleblocker, no fakeclaim can succeed; there are 4 other setups-2 have a fakeclaim available, but they have to guess, giving the 1/4?
yea, that's what I was doing. If hydrad is scum, it makes sense to view it from a scum perspective.
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Regarding the town slip of Hugo: ADK was pointing it out, twice!
In the first newbie game I played, a new player asked if roles were random, and it was a townslip. If the scum team was two newbies, they were probably surmise that they had been chosen randomly (or been told by the mod), and if it was a newbie and vet, they would have been told by the vet in their QT. There was some argument that the newbie had been coached to ask that question, but that's not a thing that really happens. Hence, I think that it points to Hugo probably being town.
This quote is his second time, bold added. It could very well be that ADK and Hugo are a scum team and ADK is indeed the vet who coached Hugo to fake a town slip just to point it out by himself.
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The reason that vets don't tell newbies to ask questions/make assumptions like that is that when they do, someone always speculates that coaching was involved.
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Again, speculation on scum teams when we haven't even caught one member of the scum team is a little soon. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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Okay. Where do we stand. A bit more than 2 days left, and Hydrad is off the table.
To help me try to work things out, I've gone back and reread everybody's posts (not quite-I didn't reread mine, and I didn't reread Hydrad at this point, since I won't vote to lynch hydrad today unless somebody comes up with a very belated counterclaim). I'm not going to talk about everybody. Only people that we seem to be considering (and by "we", I mean "I" in some cases)
Let's start with pit: Early there was nothing. Showed up to respond when called out. Gave a brief reads post in which
Awaclus would get 60% town.
Which, as others pointed out is not very impressive, since, if pit is town, from his perspective, 75% of the others are town. So the default starting point would be 75%. Then later he says referring to SS saying Hydrad is 35% scum, that 35% is quite high (even though 35% scum is 65% town, higher than his highest earlier). I think this is simply poor math and probability (which makes me sad), rather than anything else. The post 313 he asks if it is normal to kill on day one (which at least implies that he is considering no lynch), and after being told "yes", his next post (318) is the lynch threat. That was an abrupt shift. And as several have noted, hammering is not scummy-it's the manner and tone in which it is done. And your tone was problematic. Just in general, your behavior has not been especially pro-town IMO. That doesn't mean scummy, but it might. Pit is one of my top lynch choices right now.
Now Qvist: Not a ton of posts, so hard to get a read. Seems very opposed to even L-2; unvoted Hydrad when he got to L-2 early (and "panicked"), and then later revoted because Hydrad put Andrew at L-1. A brief bit of sparring with Awaclus, but otherwise basically nothing. I can certainly see mafia trying to just get by on day 1, posting minimally, but I'm certainly not convinced that's whats happening here. After all, would mafia be so worried about even L-2 on people that aren't themselves? There's some WIFOM with that, of course, so I suppose I could talk myself into Qvist, but it would be that. He's certainly not that high on my list. Even if I found myself voting for him, and he flipped scum, I wouldn't take credit for it (and big kudos would be due to those of you who saw it in this case).
Finally Hugo: Awaclus recently made a case against Hugo (post 367), and I made a much smaller case earlier (post 232). My suspicions have grown. Still not huge, but on the order of how I feel about Pit (with the major difference being townHugo seems more valuable to me than townPit). Here's my case now: Ignore the random set-up nonsense. Could be scum or town. Post 110 is all over the place. discusses Hydrad, then a poor case on Andrew and votes Andrew. Fine. It's early, there aren't strong cases to be made-but the tone has always struck me as a bit odd. Then he continues: Hydrad is suspicious (post 221) but doesn't vote. Hydrad is suspicious (post 260) but doesn't vote. Then SS's Hydrad post happens. Hugo (despite consistently saying Hydrad is suspicious), doesn't like it-thinks such a post on day 1 is manipulative (post 310). So where do you really stand on Hydrad Hugo? We get our answer 5 posts later: Hugo votes for Hydrad. He says he wouldn't have hidden under SS's post if Hydrad were lynched, but this is after Hydrad's claim (not the fullclaim though). In the bridge world, we call that self-serving evidence. It doesn't mean it's not true, but it does mean we can't really give weight to it. In any case, I don't think it is SS's post that gives Hugo cover. It's Awaclus's 311 and 312:
What's wrong with finding Hyrdad suspicious?
People should get some votes up.
The whole thing feels to me like putting pressure on Hydrad without committing a vote until it seems clear that's where things are heading. And then putting a vote that can be defended as "I always thought that way", and we needed to move towards a lynch.
Other things include being early on the fullclaim bandwagon before we thought it out (scum just wants a full claim; town wants a thought out decision). Not much weight from that, especially since others were there as well.
Maybe I'm just giving mafia too much credit. But this seems like an easy play where if things don't go Hydrad's way, Hugo can just slide off onto something else, or jump on without much suspicion. And so I am suspicious, despite his defense.
So I guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and
Vote: Hugo
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Vote Count 1.11:
xxpittip (3): silverspawn, ADK, Awaclus
Qvist (2): Hydrad, AndrewisFTTW
Hugovj (1): mpsprs
Not voting (3): xxpittip, Hugovj, Qvist
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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Also, I'm not sure how much weight to put on this, but Hugo was the only person on both L-1 wagons (Andrew and Hydrad). Certainly that could be scum (especially since the second-Hydrad-was a prepared for vote). It could not be.
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Here's my case now: Ignore the random set-up nonsense. Could be scum or town. Post 110 is all over the place. discusses Hydrad, then a poor case on Andrew and votes Andrew. Fine. It's early, there aren't strong cases to be made-but the tone has always struck me as a bit odd.
I went back and read post 110:
So Hydrad panics. Well, there are two sides to that:
It could be he is a Townie, who is genuinely shocked that the vote goes to him. I don't think this is very logical though. I think a rather experienced (yep, there it is again) player like himself shouldn't get a reaction of total panic when he is three votes away from getting lynched. Or two, for that matter.
The more logical explanation would be that he really is a scum and he tries to save himself, rather desperately. I find it very striking Qvist does actually unvote. I see a clear link here: Qvist votes for Hydrad, his partner in crime. Hydrad signals that he should look out, Qvist listens. So, íf Hydrad is a scum, then Qvist could very well be his partner.
Furthermore, I think Andrew is also suspicious. He votes randomly for pushups, then he claims in his post directly after it that we should stop voting randomly. That's a bit contradictory. Besides, he says:
You don't need a defense when there's no case.
Very well, then why did you try to take the attention away from yourself earlier, when there weren't any votes on you, by saying that we should start looking for the scummiest player?
Also, when ADK accuses you, you start defending yourself by claiming ADK always says things like this and it shouldn't count against you?
Andrew plays very aggressively defensive, therefore:
Vote: Andrew
And nothing really sticks out to me. Specifically what about his "tone" is odd to you?
I don't feel one way or another about Hugo so I'm interested in hearing other perspectives. I guess I might as well give a reads list:
Townish: silverspawn, Awaclus
Null: Hydrad, Hugo, xxpittip, mspsprs
Scummish: Qvist
By way Hydrad is NOT an IC. I don't think we should lynch him today but I think it's important we make that distinction.
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And nothing really sticks out to me. Specifically what about his "tone" is odd to you?
I don't know about mpsprs, but to me he sounds like he's very aggressive there. I don't know if that's normal in Mafia, but nobody else was being that aggressive that early.
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Andrew, you left me off your reads list entirely. Am I really that unmemorable?
I don't know how I feel about a Hugo lynch. I thought his setup-error thingie was a plausible townslip but I'll go back and read his posts.
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A thought, though: mpsprs trying to get an alternate wagon started close to the deadline is slightly towny, I think scum just goes with whatever people are already voting.
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Specifically what about his "tone" is odd to you?
I don't feel one way or another about Hugo so I'm interested in hearing other perspectives.
I'll see if I can explain what I'm seeing. I'm not really focused on the first part (the Hydrad centered piece). This seems fairly normal, even if he comes in a slightly different balance of scum vs. not scum that I probably would have (and even there, not because I'm better at reading Hydrad than he is, but probably simply because I was not willing to take a strong-ish stand yet). There's the bit about Qvist as a possible scum partner. I'm not as against looking for partnerships as you are (maybe at some point we can discuss this-but now is probably not the time). But still seems a bit over-the-top when to me the far more likely possibility is simply that Qvist who RVSed for Hydrad was simply worried about an early lynch. I didn't know at the time precisely how averse Qvist would be to L-2 (and later L-1) (nor presumably did Hugo), so some of this "over-the-top" feeling could me me now using knowledge I have now to judge Hugo then.
The second part (which addresses you, Andrew) is the part to gnaws at me a bit more. I think largely because Hugo seems to be basing the case entirely on things that I read extremely differently. To the extent that it felt like trying to fabricate something just to spread suspicion around to lots of different people-that to me is a scummy behavior. It also seemed weird to me to make what (though I didn't fully agree with the strength of it) a coherent case against Hydrad, and then toss out a few bogus complaints and vote for someone other than Hydrad.
So I guess that's where I'm coming from. I have no problem if you disagree, and hearing that you read it differently is helpful to me (I too want to hear perspectives-and I'd love to hear from you why what bothers me doesn't bother you).
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Unrelated to the last post, a few quick things.
Point 1:
By way Hydrad is NOT an IC. I don't think we should lynch him today but I think it's important we make that distinction.
I agree that Hydrad is not an IC, and shouldn't be entirely treated as such. But I do think the lack of a counterclaim is fairly powerful evidence, so it would likely take a lot to swing me against Hydrad at this point. I wouldn't say Hydrad is my strongest town read (Awaclus holds that spot for me), but the BP claim means that I consider Hydrad to have the highest probability of any of you of being town (it's just not my reading that tells me that if that makes any sense. It's more logic. I still have no real idea how to read Hydrad.)
Point 2: I realized in the case I made for Hugo that we have actually reached L-1 three times (Andrew early, Hydrad which led to the claim, and Pit immediately afterwards). I was talking about the Andrew and Hydrad wagons. I had forgotten about the Pit L-1 (those were a chaotic few hours there). Hugo was on that vote as well, but to me, that means almost nothing. Pits actions were always going to get a lot of people voting him there, and it was simply a question of whether we would eventually pause and think some more before a lynch, or just go ahead and lynch him (or even have an accidental lynch, or an "accidental" lynch in the chaos).
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Since there are less than 48h left and i don't have any better guess:
Vote: Qvist
Maybe my initial gut feeling was right ...
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Well, I think I'll go back to my vote: xxpittip. I have to choose someone...
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Well, I think I'll go back to my vote: xxpittip. I have to choose someone...
This puts pit to L-1, right?
I'll be around tomorrow, so I'll leave my vote where it is now.
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Oh yes, it does. Sorry, forgot to mention that.
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Vote Count 1.12:
xxpittip (4): silverspawn, ADK, Awaclus, Hugovj
Qvist (3): Hydrad, AndrewisFTTW, xxpittip
Hugovj (1): mpsprs
Not voting (1): Qvist
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
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ok so we are under the 24hour mark just letting everyone know. I should be around for the hammer though.
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ok so we are under the 24hour mark just letting everyone know. I should be around for the hammer though.
I won't be around right at the deadline (unless I'm running very late at work), but I'll be in and out through the day. If nothing (or little) has changed by tomorrow noon-ish, I'll be moving my vote to ensure a lynch (and if nothing changes, it's moving to Pit). So that'll be somewhere between 12 and 1.
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I suppose I should specify: between 12 and 1 my time, which is EST in the US (and ~15 hours from now, and ~5 hours pre-deadline)
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Since there are less than 48h left and i don't have any better guess:
Vote: Qvist
Maybe my initial gut feeling was right ...
This makes me want to vote for Qvist a lot less. The last time I'll be around is around 11 forum time tomorrow.
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I'll be around for at least ~13 hours from now.
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I'll be around for at least ~13 hours from now.
Same for me.
After my reread I haven't come to really new conclusions. silverspawn and mpsprs are currently my strong town reads. I don't have any strong reads on Hugo, pit or Andrew. Awaclus and ADK have weak scum reads for me. And Hydrad is out of contention.
I'm not sure if I would hammer on pit though. He was/is lurking, but nothing really strikes me to be scum. Is lurking enough of a reason to lynch someone?
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I'll be around for the deadline. Leaving my vote as is for now.
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I'll be leaving for work soon. Is there anyone online who wants to convince me to move my vote?
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Vote Count 1.13:
xxpittip (4): silverspawn, ADK, Awaclus, Hugovj
Qvist (3): Hydrad, AndrewisFTTW, xxpittip
Hugovj (1): mpsprs
Not voting (1): Qvist
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 6:00 p.m. on November 10, 2014.
That's in less than 7 hours.
I won't be around for the deadline, but I hope SP will. If not, twilight is a bit longer than my norm.
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So here I am for my lunch break. I'm not looking to convince anybody to move their vote (since of the 2 options Pit and Qvist, I prefer a Pit lynch, and I can make that happen). If anybody wants to try and convince me otherwise, you've got about a half hour (and you'll probably need to convince somebody else to move too, since even if I vote Qvist, the only remaining voter is Qvist himself (who should not self-hammer; if he's town he'd be killing someone he knows to be 100% town vs. someone he can't be 100% sure of, and if he's scum, why?)
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Since there are less than 48h left and i don't have any better guess:
Vote: Qvist
Maybe my initial gut feeling was right ...
This makes me want to vote for Qvist a lot less. The last time I'll be around is around 11 forum time tomorrow.
I actually agree, this looks like something new scum would say. Does anybody have anything else to say other than what time you'll be around for deadline? Otherwise,
Intent to hammer
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Since there are less than 48h left and i don't have any better guess:
Vote: Qvist
Maybe my initial gut feeling was right ...
This makes me want to vote for Qvist a lot less. The last time I'll be around is around 11 forum time tomorrow.
Well, now we have a race to the hammer. I still have 5 minutes until my vote moves. And I'm fine doing it.
I actually agree, this looks like something new scum would say. Does anybody have anything else to say other than what time you'll be around for deadline? Otherwise,
Intent to hammer
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I have no idea where that message went. It was something like:
Now we have a race to the hammer. Mine is coming at 12:30 (now 3 minutes), and I'm fine doing it.
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Vote: Pit
That's the lynch.
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Well I was hoping we would hear from everyone at least one more time but.... alrighty.
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Everyone including Pit, as in possibly a claim.
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My threat has been active for more than 12 hours at this point. I think the main reason to wait to claim is the chaos it causes at the last (a scum thing). But maybe you're right?
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THREAD LOCKED
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Final Vote Count:
xxpittip (5): silverspawn, ADK, Awaclus, Hugovj, mpsprs
Qvist (3): Hydrad, AndrewisFTTW, xxpittip
Not voting (1): Qvist
With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch.
xxpittip has been lynched. He was a Bluefin Tuna, a Vanilla Townie.
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mpsprs has been killed! He was a Wahoo, a Vanilla Townie.
Thread Unlocked!
Vote Count 2.0:
Not Voting (7): Awaclus, Hugovj, silverspawn, Hydrad, Qvist, ADK, AndrewisFTTW
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 1 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
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Ok that could've been worse. I was unsure what to think of mps after that lynch so at least we don't have to debate his alignment. I'm gonna do a reread but I'm pretty suspicious of Qvist considering he was the only one to not place a vote anywhere.
vote: Qvist
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vote: Andrew
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vote: Andrew
Because...?
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Coming out of the gate knowing who you want to vote for.
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Ok that could've been worse. I was unsure what to think of mps after that lynch so at least we don't have to debate his alignment. I'm gonna do a reread but I'm pretty suspicious of Qvist considering he was the only one to not place a vote anywhere.
vote: Qvist
Why am I suspicious not placing a vote. I mean I rather would have voted for pit than myself, but pit just wasn't scummy to me. And my read was correct.
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Is that something that's scummy? And I was pushing Qvist yesterday so I don't know why you would be surprised that I voted for him D2.
Ok that could've been worse. I was unsure what to think of mps after that lynch so at least we don't have to debate his alignment. I'm gonna do a reread but I'm pretty suspicious of Qvist considering he was the only one to not place a vote anywhere.
vote: Qvist
Why am I suspicious not placing a vote. I mean I rather would have voted for pit than myself, but pit just wasn't scummy to me. And my read was correct.
Because everyone else placed a vote and it just seems like a safe thing to do. This is in addition to my suspicions from yesterday. That said, I'm going to reread and we should all try to figure out why scum would kill mps.
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Ok that could've been worse. I was unsure what to think of mps after that lynch so at least we don't have to debate his alignment. I'm gonna do a reread but I'm pretty suspicious of Qvist considering he was the only one to not place a vote anywhere.
vote: Qvist
Why am I suspicious not placing a vote. I mean I rather would have voted for pit than myself, but pit just wasn't scummy to me. And my read was correct.
Just for the record just because I'm voting for andrew doesn't mean i don't find Qvist scummy, especially that last bit. Scum likes to defend town that's about to get lynched and then say "I told you so".
PPE: I think it is, I'm still processing the NK. My first thought on why it was mps was that a number of people thought he was town, but maybe I'm just projecting.
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Coming out of the gate knowing who you want to vote for.
why is that scummy? I don't really see it.
vote: Qvist
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The only people who have had time to consider the implications of the NK are the people who decided it, i.e. scum.
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The only people who have had time to consider the implications of the NK are the people who decided it, i.e. scum.
I guess. Mh. though his post does kind of sound spontaneous.
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The only people who have had time to consider the implications of the NK are the people who decided it, i.e. scum.
My vote on Qvist is not based off of the NK.
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Okay, so why the mpspers kill?
Assuming Hydrad is town, we have one of these setups:
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Tracker, 2 Mafia Goons
5 Vanilla Townies, 1 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie, 1 Town Jailkeeper, 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker
so, if we have a JK, maybe scum just wanted to get a safe kill, hence not targeting you or andrew?
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Vote Count 2.1:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
AndrewisFTTW (1): ADK
Not voting (4): Qvist, Awaclus, Hugovj, Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
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Hugo, awaclus, you around? Care to chime in?
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Hugo, awaclus, you around? Care to chime in?
Why not Hydrad?
This morning I was planning to read mpsprs again to find out if there's anything he said that could have caused someone want to kill him in particular, but I have been doing other stuff today.
Also, Pit being town removes some of the points that I had against Hugovj, but that was just the icing on the cake anyway. I still think his actions on day 1 made him scummier than Qvist or Andrew is now, but I don't know.
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I missed that Hydrad hasn't posted yet today either, you're right.
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Just posting to say I'm here. I'll post more later today! I have a bunch of meetings today so can't do as much mafia at work...
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Vote Count 2.1:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
AndrewisFTTW (1): ADK
Not voting (4): Qvist, Awaclus, Hugovj, Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
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Very sorry, but I had my birthday yesterday, so I was a bit busy.
Well, Awaclus, if you still believe that, I have already defended myself. If there is nothing new, I don't think your case stands.
I think mps was a logical kill in hindsight. He was probably one of the more towny people around, so a good target. Besides, it was not very likely mps would have been protected by anything, so that's also a good reason. I don't really think there was more behind that.
I feel a bit lost now. My main candidate for a lynch would be Qvist, but that's more based on a feeling than anything else.
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Well, Awaclus, if you still believe that, I have already defended myself. If there is nothing new, I don't think your case stands.
You have, and I don't think your defense was sufficient. You did explain why you could have done those things as town, but it's easy to explain stuff afterwards. Mpsprs also had his own case against you and you never replied to him.
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Here are all the votes on xxpittip:
silverspawn from page 8 or 9 (and stayed on him until the lynch):
I'm feeling even stronger about pit though. Yea, this is his first game, but again, I know him pretty well, and I just don't think he is the kind of player who lurks in his first game. He usually has strong opinions, even if he isn't that experienced in something, and he isn't afraid to share them. Don't let this avatar fool you, the guy is not timid. I also don't buy that he keeps lurking because of my initial comment. But I could see scum!pit thinking, okay this kind be dangerous, let's start by staying in the background, I will probably just be ignored. That might not be very smart from a more experienced perspective, but he can't really know the concept of lurking.
vote: Pit
for now.
Awaclus:
Like Hydrad said, the Hydrad read could be either scummy or towny, and the Awaclus read is probably just a misunderstanding (unless Qvist has something else to say about it), so that leaves us with the "everyone else is town" point. I'm not experienced enough to say how much of a scum tell it is, so I'm not going to say anything about it, but for the time being I think that Pit is probably the scummiest.
Vote: Pit
Hugo:
I would actually like to vote for hydrad now, but since i am already pretty high on the scum list, i don't want to be the one killing someone who might be town... If he is still at L-4 tomorrow, when i wake up (propably in about 12h) i will vote. So if you are not 100% serious about your votes you should unvote soon.
This is a thread. That's really, really weird.
Vote: xxpittip
Just to prevent this.
ADK:
Pre-post edit. People posted stuff while I was writing my post, so I wrote more stuff to take that into account. You get a red warning box.
Looking at the setup, I realize that there might be an advantage to keeping a PR hidden. So I'm willing to let Hydrad live for now, if he's scum he'll get caught in the lie eventually.
vote: pit that's L-1.
PPE: Like that!
Hugo unvote in response to Hydrad saying he should hammer pit instead of claim:
Unvote
Go ahead and claim.
Hugo hammer:
Well, I think I'll go back to my vote: xxpittip. I have to choose someone...
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So actually here is Awaclus's original pit vote:
In a separate post, I wanted to do two things:
Should I be actually putting the quotes in a long message like that? Would that be helpful? Is that the standard practice?
Also, I think with need to up the pressure on xxpittip. We need info. Be a part of that. Don't just sit back and hope it comes.
Vote: xxpittip
I have no idea what is or isn't standard practice, but I've been quoting when it feels like it makes misunderstandings less likely to happen, puts emphasis on important things etc -- in other words, when it actually helps. If it isn't useful, then it just makes posts messier for no benefit.
And I agree that Pit really needs to start interacting with people. Vote: Pit this is L-2 if I'm not mistaken.
Then he unvotes:
Oh and Unvote because now he's active.
And here's the vote I quote before but with a little more context:
His read on me is a reason that gives him an out when I flip town where its kinda a I just didn't understand him. Which I understand can be completely true as town and there is a high chance it is true. But its also a perfect excuse for scum.
Then awaclus read is weird. I think awaclus for most people has a town vibe going on. I think Qvist is the only one kinda suspecting him. This could be him trying to make it so we don't have a IC kinda person to fast and is trying to spread distrust in him?
then everyone else is town. I think this is a common thing as scum. Its really hard to come up with scum reads when you know they are town. It feels like hes not commiting to hard on people being scum because he knows hes wrong.
Thats the vibe I got from that post.
hey, these are good points. especially the one about town reads being a scum tell. I'm on the "awaclus is super towny" side, so, it's odd that he suspects him of all people.
Like Hydrad said, the Hydrad read could be either scummy or towny, and the Awaclus read is probably just a misunderstanding (unless Qvist has something else to say about it), so that leaves us with the "everyone else is town" point. I'm not experienced enough to say how much of a scum tell it is, so I'm not going to say anything about it, but for the time being I think that Pit is probably the scummiest.
Vote: Pit
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A couple reads from mpsprs that might be useful. I know I saw a reads list somewhere, let me see if I can find it.
Now Qvist: Not a ton of posts, so hard to get a read. Seems very opposed to even L-2; unvoted Hydrad when he got to L-2 early (and "panicked"), and then later revoted because Hydrad put Andrew at L-1. A brief bit of sparring with Awaclus, but otherwise basically nothing. I can certainly see mafia trying to just get by on day 1, posting minimally, but I'm certainly not convinced that's whats happening here. After all, would mafia be so worried about even L-2 on people that aren't themselves? There's some WIFOM with that, of course, so I suppose I could talk myself into Qvist, but it would be that. He's certainly not that high on my list. Even if I found myself voting for him, and he flipped scum, I wouldn't take credit for it (and big kudos would be due to those of you who saw it in this case).
Finally Hugo: Awaclus recently made a case against Hugo (post 367), and I made a much smaller case earlier (post 232). My suspicions have grown. Still not huge, but on the order of how I feel about Pit (with the major difference being townHugo seems more valuable to me than townPit). Here's my case now: Ignore the random set-up nonsense. Could be scum or town. Post 110 is all over the place. discusses Hydrad, then a poor case on Andrew and votes Andrew. Fine. It's early, there aren't strong cases to be made-but the tone has always struck me as a bit odd. Then he continues: Hydrad is suspicious (post 221) but doesn't vote. Hydrad is suspicious (post 260) but doesn't vote. Then SS's Hydrad post happens. Hugo (despite consistently saying Hydrad is suspicious), doesn't like it-thinks such a post on day 1 is manipulative (post 310). So where do you really stand on Hydrad Hugo? We get our answer 5 posts later: Hugo votes for Hydrad. He says he wouldn't have hidden under SS's post if Hydrad were lynched, but this is after Hydrad's claim (not the fullclaim though). In the bridge world, we call that self-serving evidence. It doesn't mean it's not true, but it does mean we can't really give weight to it. In any case, I don't think it is SS's post that gives Hugo cover. It's Awaclus's 311 and 312:
What's wrong with finding Hyrdad suspicious?
People should get some votes up.
The whole thing feels to me like putting pressure on Hydrad without committing a vote until it seems clear that's where things are heading. And then putting a vote that can be defended as "I always thought that way", and we needed to move towards a lynch.
Other things include being early on the fullclaim bandwagon before we thought it out (scum just wants a full claim; town wants a thought out decision). Not much weight from that, especially since others were there as well.
Maybe I'm just giving mafia too much credit. But this seems like an easy play where if things don't go Hydrad's way, Hugo can just slide off onto something else, or jump on without much suspicion. And so I am suspicious, despite his defense.
So I guess I'll put my money where my mouth is and
Vote: Hugo
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Ok I found it but it's a lot earlier than this last list so I wont bother to post it.
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OH sorry I was missing the mps hammer but that doesn't really matter.
So the obvious question is if Hugo is scum would he kill mps just for having suspected him heavily? I don't think so, that would just be too easy.
I'm thinking Qvist or Awaclus are more likely scum. Qvist was off wagon (the only one not placing a vote) and Awaclus was on the pit lynch. For me, Awaclus has the scummiest vote on pit. I'm pretty confident that silverspawn is town, ADK's vote is pretty towny, I think Hugo is town based on the NK, and mps is dead. Awaclus seems to make a habit of subtly playing up his newbiness. Not so much that it's blatantly obvious but some of his posts hint that he's new and doesn't exactly understand everything despite otherwise seeming comfortable and relaxed in his posts. Also Qvist and Awaclus have had very similar posting styles throughout the game. I'll keep my vote on Qvist for now.
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I still like Qvist as my top scum read right now
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Vote Count 2.3:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
AndrewisFTTW (1): ADK
Not voting (4): Qvist, Awaclus, Hugovj, Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
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Okay, I guess I can post some of my current thoughts on players. I'll give scum points from 0 to 10.
Awaclus: not so sure anymore. on the one hand, jumped at the wagon on a pretty opportunistic time. on the other hand, he seems really helpful and genuine. but the thing with awaclus generally is that he is just very different than other people in the way he thinks and looks at things (don't worry, mostly in a good way). That, combined with the fact that this is his first game, and I don't really know what to think. If he is scum, he is playing a very strong first game, but I wouldn't put it past him. He could be scum.
Still, I don't really want to lynch both super noobies on day1 and day2. That would be kind of cruel. Then again, that shouldn't influence our decisions. Let's say 4 points.
Hugovj: I don't really know. From a wagon perspective, he is looking pretty bad, but his posts are complete nullish to me. If he was a complete noobie, maybe I'd give him town cred for his style, but he said that he played a lot of werewolf before, which is almost the same, so... 8 points for the bad wagon and no town read.
mpsprs/Pit: sorry that you're dead. pit, sorry for more or less causing your lynch in day1. you were so scummy though.
Hydrad: was not on the wagon. I think we have to give him credit for that. I made my post about his playstyle, but his claim in combination with staying on Qvist till the end makes him look pretty good I think. 2 Points.
A Drowned Kernel: was on the wagon, but not at the worst time. He corrected my setup posts, but also messed things up himself. generally, he strikes me as sincere town. wasn't killed N1, but we might have a JK (and there's WIFOM), so that's not enough to really make him scummy. He also changed his mind a lot about whether or not hydrad should claim, I think scum would be more careful there. 3 Points.
9. AndrewisFTTW: Was off wagon, and hasn't done anything that makes me suspect him. Then again, I had a town read on him in my only game with him, and he was scum there. Still, off wagon. 2 Points.
7. Qvist: is tricky. He strikes me as trying to blend in, but failing at it. what I really dislike is how he reacted with his first day2 post:
Why am I suspicious not placing a vote. I mean I rather would have voted for pit than myself, but pit just wasn't scummy to me. And my read was correct.
I think having-received-lots-of-unfair-suspicion!and-also-being-off-wagon!town!Qvist would be more upset about people voting for him. Then again, maybe being upset is just not his style.
I kind of want to give him town cred for being off wagon, but not voting for anyone kind of looks like scum!knowingeveryoneelseistown!notknowingwhomtovotefor!Qvist. keep in mind that, as scum, you don't really want to vote for anyone, cause either he's your partner, or it will make you look bad if he flips town. best case is, town gets lynched and you are on the other wagon. but qvist was the other wagon, so he couldn't do that.
I think he really demands a reread, so if nothing else is happening, that's what I'll do next. for now, 7 points.
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Yeah, I'll vote: Hugovj. It can't hurt doing it this early, and I do think that he has been the scummiest in general.
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Weekends are a terrible time for me, and I just realized the deadline is already coming up. I promise a big post tomorrow night.
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Vote Count 2.4:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
AndrewisFTTW (1): ADK
Hugovj (1): Awaclus
Not voting (3): Qvist, Hugovj, Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
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So here are my pre-reread thoughts.
mprprs being NK seems like scum was trying to kill someone fairly towny who was unlikely to be protected. The thought that went into that choice makes me think that it's more likely than not that there's vet on the team- it's not impossible for a newbie to be thinking of that, but I don't think it's what's going to be their first priority in choosing a NK. I also think that a newbie being killed means that there's more likely to be scum among the vets- our first lynch aside, vets are naturally going to be more likely lynch candidates, and they're not going to want to narrow the pool down.
Among the vets, I'm currently leaning toward Andrew, Qvist, and still potentially Hydrad over Silverspawn, largely because of his claim of not having read the setup and the work he did during Hydrad's claim. But it's true that there's nothing so towny it can't be faked by sufficiently crafty scum, and I'm pretty sure Silverspawn is sufficiently crafty. There also exists the possibility that he's scum who didn't read the setup, and a newbie partner wouldn't have reminded him the QT. So I'm going to try and be unbiased as possible during this reread.
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First, Hugo makes his assumption about how roles are assigned. My instinct is that this sort of thing is almost always genuine, but there is the possibility that Hugo's partner is scum and he just made that assumption. So I suppose if Hugo does ever flip scum, we know his partner's probably a vet.
Huh, I forgot that Andrew RVS voted me.
Awaclus gives a non-committal post on the experienced vs. newbie issue, then votes Hydrad for being the first poster. This post looks a little scummy to me.
Qvist advocates random voting, then votes Hydrad for starting a wagon.
Another super-hedgey post (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434467#msg434467) from Awaclus, and another jokey vote. More scum points.
And he pre-emptively gives himself and excuse to make bad arguments. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434468#msg434468) Ugh.
ADK makes a great first post. What an awesome guy!
Andrew gets nervous about me calling him nervous. And then yells/is sarcastic at Hydrad. Actually, wow, that little bit between Andrew and Hydrad looks pretty conversational, there might be a scum team there.
Awaclus jumps on the Hydrad wagon. All aboard!
And Qvist jumps off. And Hugo calls him out on it, (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434492#msg434492) and then moves past the Hydrad wagon to question some posts Andrew made. This is the towniest post I've seen so far (that wasn't made by me).
Silverspawn also makes a great first post. He's probably town. Like 90%.
And then Andrew votes for him, for reasons that I think aren't very good.
Silverspawn gets in a fight with Andrew. SS looks towny to me here, and Andrew looks scummy. That's just me, I guess.
And Andrew votes for me for having a town read on someone early. I forgot how ridiculous the beginning of this game was.
Okay, here's something interesting. Silverspawn is very certain in his scum read on Pit, whom we now know to be town, and argues it based on his previous relationship. Now, strong, incorrect reads are more likely to come from town than from scum- scum knows everyone's alignments, and has to fake reads. They're also more likely to avoid making waves, and to want to go back on things later, so their reads will be hedgier in general.
The problem, of course, is that a good scum player knows this. As I said before, Silverspawn is sufficiently crafty, and being boldly wrong in your reads is a good scum move for precisely this reason. So I'm not prepared to give SS town points for the Pit thing just yet.
And, Silverspawn's “I didn't realize the setup was public knowledge”. Which could be faked, or could be from scum who just saw “we have two goons” or “we have a goon and a RB” and didn't know there was more info to be had.
This (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434619#msg434619) is so hedgey it has leaves growing on it.
Qvist seems very cautious, but I actually like this post. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434644#msg434644)
You're the hedge-enomy. You're a hedge-case. That's one way to get ahedge. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434667#msg434667)
Stop being such a crappy scum partner! (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434680#msg434680)
My previous scum read on Qvist is vanishing fast. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=post;quote=434746;topic=11989.150;last_msg=439572) Where did that come from anyway?
Mmm. I kind of like Awaclus's reaction to Hydrad's weirdness? Like, it looks like he's genuinely trying to figure things out.
Andrew says putting him at L-1 is scummy, which still isn't a thing.
Hydrad seems like Hydrad through all this. And there's the claim thing, I guess we shouldn't lynch him today. But man, I really want to lynch Hydrad sometime.
Uh, then Qvist gets uppity about L-1, maybe that's where my scum read came from?
In fairness to the things I've been saying about Awaclus, here's a super hedgey post from Hugo. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434892#msg434892)
Awaclus goes for the super-safe lurker vote (Pit) but eh, he's a newbie and I don't think would think of it that way. I'll give him a pass.
More SS/Pit stuff. Nothing really alters what I said about it before.
Hugo defends Pit. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg435957#msg435957) I think I've said it before but it bears repeating. Scum, especially new scum, likes to defend players they know are town and are likely to get lynched so they can say “I told you so!”
Silverspawn does a somewhat-unprompted reread of Pit. Man, he really wants this lynch. My town read is starting to dip below 90%.
Andrew argues with Silverspawn about something kind of pointless. Scroll scroll scroll.
Hugo is suspicious of big posts. They are annoying, who does that kind of thing, really.
Qvist has a town read on “everyone else.” (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436422#msg436422) I knew my scum read wasn't me being crazy!
I think this post (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436546#msg436546) is pretty towny. I still feel pretty null on Hugo overall.
Woah, then Hugo votes for Hydrad after I put a little pressure on him. Man, don't let other people tell you how to vote!
Then the claim stuff. Man Silverspawn has so many long posts, where does he get off writing such long posts. But for serious, all the analysis makes Silverspawn look like motivated town. If he's scum, he's playing this brilliantly, I'll give him that.
Okay, so even though there is a possibility for fakeclaiming, and scum might want to out PRs if they think they're probably going to be risked, I think I'm still sold on Hydrad's claim being real. It makes me a little upset but I don't think Hydrad, in that position, claims a PR as scum.
I like this post (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436711#msg436711) by Awaclus, it looks train-of-thought-y, which is towny. And it reminds me of me.
There's a big Hugo/Awaclus fight here, they're really butting heads throughout all of day one, yet neither of them was the NK. It's possible one was afraid that the other flipping town would make them look bad. As far I as I can tell mpsprs was more suspicious of Hugo than Awaclus, but that's a lot of WIFOM.
Andrew comes in post-claim, and votes for Qvist (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436828#msg436828) by copying my reason. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436588#msg436588) Which is a tad scummy, and also not very classy.
Then we wander into the pit lynch. Whee!
Woah, mprprs hammered. Guys, scum killed the hammerer, what's up with that?
And Andrew comes out the gate ready to vote for Qvist, who attracted a lot of suspicion the day before. Yeah, his first post today looks a lot like scum trying to head off suspicion before it gets turned on him.
Qvist says “I told you so”.
Wait, what? (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg438345#msg438345) This post is off-putting.
And then everything gets quiet, I hate when games stall, boo.
Andrew thinks Awaclus and Qvist are scummy, for how they voted for Pit. He also falls on the “Hugo's not scum” side of the WIFOM. What's notable was that Andrew was intending to hammer, so the only people “off-wagon” are Hydrad and Qvist.
And then ADK made a giant fucking post that no one probably read. The End!
---IMPORTANT STUFF---
If you want to skip to this bit: I just did a giant reread and did a sort of train-of-thought narration. Here's my scummy-to-towny list:
Scummy: AndrewisFTTW>Awaclus>Hugo>Qvist>Hydrad>Silverspawn
Hydrad's only so low because of the claim, Silverspawn's probably town, Qvist feels like a scapegoat to me, Awaclus and Hugo are very close in my estimation and could be flipped. I like my vote where it is.
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Andrew gets nervous about me calling him nervous. And then yells/is sarcastic at Hydrad. Actually, wow, that little bit between Andrew and Hydrad looks pretty conversational, there might be a scum team there.
I don't get your obsession with "nervousness". I don't understand how you think you can pick up on a trait that is so defined by body language and tone from reading some text. Calling people "nervous" just seems like a cop out rebuttal for when people actually respond to your accusations.
And Andrew votes for me for having a town read on someone early. I forgot how ridiculous the beginning of this game was.
This is misleading and I'm surprised you tried to pull this after we had a whole discussion on it:
And actually trying to clear somebody like that so early is scummy, even if it's subtle.
vote: ADK
Forming reads is scummy now?
No. Declaring something is a townslip when it's clearly not is scummy.
etc.
And Andrew comes out the gate ready to vote for Qvist, who attracted a lot of suspicion the day before. Yeah, his first post today looks a lot like scum trying to head off suspicion before it gets turned on him.
I don't remember Qvist attracting a lot of suspicion yesterday. What suspicion exactly are you claiming I was trying to head off?
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Stop being such a crappy scum partner! (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434680#msg434680)
Haha, game over! You caught me!
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Actually I thought about this in the tub and unvote
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vote: awaclus
Now it goes like Scummy: awaclus>hugo>qvist>hydrad>andrew>silverspawn
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Vote Count 2.5:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
Hugovj (1): Awaclus
Awaclus (1): ADK
Not voting (3): Qvist, Hugovj, Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
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Awaclus gives a non-committal post on the experienced vs. newbie issue, then votes Hydrad for being the first poster. This post looks a little scummy to me.
Another super-hedgey post (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434467#msg434467) from Awaclus, and another jokey vote. More scum points.
And he pre-emptively gives himself and excuse to make bad arguments. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434468#msg434468) Ugh.
This (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434619#msg434619) is so hedgey it has leaves growing on it.
You're the hedge-enomy. You're a hedge-case. That's one way to get ahedge. (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434667#msg434667)
Well, I can see how pre-emptively giving myself an excuse to make bad arguments would be a scum thing to do, but the thing is, it wasn't an excuse to make bad arguments, it's actually true. But the other posts you linked, what about them in particular makes them look scummy to you?
I remember having to ask this question about Hydrad too. You seem to have a habit of accusing people of being hedgey, nervous or whatever without explaining the reasons why you think that way, and I find it pretty annoying, because then I can't really explain why I disagree with your reasoning. Well, even if your reasoning is actually good and something that I could agree with (doesn't apply here for obvious reasons), I can't do that unless I know what it is.
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Your point about vets is interesting. just to be clear, which players do you consider vets? Hugo probably has played more games than I have.
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vote: awaclus
Now it goes like Scummy: awaclus>hugo>qvist>hydrad>andrew>silverspawn
Why the sudden change?
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vote: awaclus
Now it goes like Scummy: awaclus>hugo>qvist>hydrad>andrew>silverspawn
Why the sudden change?
Reasons.
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explaining yourself is scummy after all
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Your point about vets is interesting. just to be clear, which players do you consider vets? Hugo probably has played more games than I have.
I'd consider you, me, andrew, Hydrad, and possibly Qvist "vets". Hugo's played Werewolf but there's a big, big difference between playing this game face-to-face and playing it online.
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I thought about things and think that Andrew's probably town. I think there's likely one scum between awaclus and Hugo. That's where I'm at.
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I'm very, very sorry for my absence the last week. Tomorrow I'll make a good post. Promise.
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I quickly went again over some of the past pages. My conclusions:
silverspawn and Andrew are currently my town reads. Hydrad is still likely town.
So, I would be tempted to vote for anyone else.
Hugo: The only town cred he has is his "town slip" which could totally be staged which is not that unlikely at that point in time.
Awaclus: His still is a little bit scummy to me for the reasons I already mentioned. He dropped just some weird lines.
ADK: This is more of a gut feeling than anything else. He is just playing so "passive", maybe I was just expecting something else.
My top vote is currently Vote: Hugovj
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Vote Count 2.6:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
Hugovj (2): Awaclus, Qvist
Awaclus (1): ADK
Not voting (2): Hugovj, Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 2 will end at 4:00 p.m. on November 19, 2014.
That's in 36 hours or so.
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Why the sudden change?
Reasons.
I must have missed this. Wow, really? You're not even trying, are you?
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Hmm ADK brought up some good points. I think my top 2 to lynch right now would be hugo/qvist. awaclus is moving up there in my scum reads but I like the others more then him. Right now I like qvist the most still.
Vote: Qvist This is L-1.
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well I'm not gonna hammer.
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... yet.
though actually, the deadline is tomorrow. huh. this day feels short.
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... yet.
though actually, the deadline is tomorrow. huh. this day feels short.
To me too. No idea why.
So, I'm going to reread Qvist's posts to see whether he deserves to be on L-1 (and whether I should hammer or not)
So, the beginning. First post:
As no one really died in the first night, it's hard to draw conclusions right now. We can now only random vote and wait until somebody slips.
And then he random votes for Hydrad
This is a pretty weird post to me. I really feel like this is a post to discourage too much discussion and just vote, especially because we are playing Newbie Mafia, so maybe someone is gullible and listens to this advice.
This is definitely to early to risk a hammer on Hydrad. Unvote
I agree with Andrew that all the talk about lynching someone who is a veteran player might be strategically reasonable is nonsense. We should just focus in finding out who is mafia and lynch him.
I'm interested in seeing what happens though, so vote: Hydrad and now it's L-2 unless I'm mistaken.
Why should we already test out what happens? Not everybody has even posted here yet. We should wait.
Firstly, and I've said this before, this is a rather strange unvote. Hydrad was a L-2, so no really big deal yet, and this seems really like Qvist is a bit shocked about the votes on Hydrad, and does not want to look scummy.
Besides, again Qvist tries to reduce the discussion and insists on waiting. This is particularly scummy to me, because the scum might be a bit scared of a slip.
Qvist makes a post mainly reacting to others.
Also, he says ADK may be right about me being town.
Then he is in a discussion with Awaclus about Awaclus saying he trusts Qvist. That's towny to me.
After that he is back with his vote on Hydrad.
Vote: Hydrad again because I think we all agreed that we still have enough time to analyze the behaviour and wait for slips, but now he puts (or believe he had put) Andrew at L-1. That's totally unreasonable.
Funnily he seems to have lost his fear of L-2 at this stage, but yeah, that's not really relevant I think.
He then proceeds to attack Hydrad.
He then mentions his reads so far. He suspects Hydrad and Awaclus, and has a town read on all the others.
Also, he says it's day one and he doesn't know very well what to talk about. This is post #298. There has been quite some discussion before this point. Surely there was something to talk about..
He wants to hear a full claim. Can't blame him for that, as I did the same. Still scummy though.
And now comes something quite strange. This post:
Regarding the town slip of Hugo: ADK was pointing it out, twice!
...
This quote is his second time, bold added. It could very well be that ADK and Hugo are a scum team and ADK is indeed the vet who coached Hugo to fake a town slip just to point it out by himself.
Huh? But before you said I was probably town, thanks to ADK pointing this out. I really do not understand where this change came from, or why it has to be made so late on a day. Nobody said this before him. He didn't do a full reread. So where did this come from?
His new conclusion, includes Awaclus and ADK as weak scum reads. That's pretty reasonable.
He has only said something 'today' about being suspicious not voting. Not really interesting.
This all together adds up to a scum read for Qvist from me. But, that's not the most important thing to be said for a Qvist-is-scum-case. It is the way he posts. He often posts one sentence accompanied with a quote. Maybe two. He selects tiny bits of discussion and reacts to them. This is an ideal scum strategy I think. You are saying 'I'm active, look, I've read this post', but at the same time, you're not adding much to the discussion.
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Oh, very sorry, Qvist hás posted 'today'. Now I'm his most likely scum read? I wasn't even featured on his previous analysis? While, everything he is accusing me of has happened before 'today', so I totally should have been on that analysis. This is very, very weird.
By the way, he isn't on L-1, right? I think he's on L-2. Let me check that.
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Yep, he is. Well, he is now.
Vote: Qvist
This is the L-1.
And ADK, I've played werewolf online before. Like... About 100 games? So, yeah. I'm new to you guys and to the style of voting and tactics behind that, but not new to the evil vs. good concept.
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JIKES! I think you just derphammered Qvist
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn
then Hydrad voted
Then you voted
2+2 = 4
we need 4 for a lynch.
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I guess this is my fault also because I didn't even realize my vote was still on him. But I did state the intention not to hammer.
unvote anyway, but I think it's too late
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I take it this was not intentional?
Also Qvist (and anyone else), any last words? I have no idea how long Twilight will last. probably until a mod comes back.
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sigh well this is surely not the worst lynch, and we may have ended up doing it anyway, but still, derphammering like that is not good.
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Oh dear. Yes, I did. I can't count. I was counting to five, not four. I wanted Qvist to be able to defend himself...
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well, let's hope he flips scum, because if he doesn't, we're pretty much at LYLO with 3-2, unless we somehow stop the NK.
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well, let's hope he flips scum, because if he doesn't, we're pretty much at LYLO with 3-2, unless we somehow stop the NK.
Well, that had been the case anyway. So the derphammer (lovely term) didn't matter much in that aspect.
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well, let's hope he flips scum, because if he doesn't, we're pretty much at LYLO with 3-2, unless we somehow stop the NK.
Well, that had been the case anyway. So the derphammer (lovely term) didn't matter much in that aspect.
not necessarily. ADK was pushing a case on Awaclus, and you were #2 scummiest on his and #1 scummiest on my list. It would have been reasonably likely that we change our lynch target to Awaclus or to you.
Which, by the way, makes an excellent narrative for scum!you to hammer her for self-preservation. I should have unvoted earlier and not given you this opportunity.
Also, if Hydrad's claim was true, Qvist could have been Tracker or Jailkeeper. A PR is almost an IC here, because fakeclaims are almost impossible, so he will always survive when he claims. Better hope you didn't just derphammer our Tracker.
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hammer her
*here
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Well, Silver, with me you also should hope I was a scum, otherwise Lylo, that was what I meant.
And yes, I see that narrative. Not true though.
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Derp. Well, what's done is done. Let's hope he's scum. That rhymed.
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Well, I wanted to claim when I'm at L-1. And now I didn't have a chance to do so. I was the worst to lynch, guys. Probably I played badly, but I'm not sure how to play better. Looks like scum will win, but I wish you the best.
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If you're a PR I think Hugo is our default lynch for day 3.
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and in that case we'll get to 2-1, which is not that bad.
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Hmm ADK brought up some good points. I think my top 2 to lynch right now would be hugo/qvist. awaclus is moving up there in my scum reads but I like the others more then him. Right now I like qvist the most still.
Vote: Qvist This is L-1.
Oh, very sorry, Qvist hás posted 'today'. Now I'm his most likely scum read? I wasn't even featured on his previous analysis? While, everything he is accusing me of has happened before 'today', so I totally should have been on that analysis. This is very, very weird.
By the way, he isn't on L-1, right? I think he's on L-2. Let me check that.
You said you checked. How'd you miss Hydrad's post?
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Well, if I'm the 'default' lynch, you'll lose anyway. I think speaking in that manner is quite stupid. I couldn't know Qvist was a PR, if he is, neither did you, Hydrad or Andrew. If you really want to lynch me next, be my guest, but don't complain afterwards.
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I didn't. I checked whether Qvist had 3 votes. And he did. I thought we needed five. It was dumb, I know.
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I'm just going to hope at this point that Qvist is still scum that is trying to cause us panic by saying hes a PR.
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I'm just going to hope at this point that Qvist is still scum that is trying to cause us panic by saying hes a PR.
Would that help him though? The next time we can do something useful, we already know his role and alignment.
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Good job guys.
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Good job guys.
vote: ADK
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Wait, if you're actually a PR, you need to tell us what you did with your night one action and what results you got.
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Seriously, you're lynched anyway and the information might help town. Otherwise, I'm glad we actually hit scum.
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Yeah, what ADK said.
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THREAD LOCKED
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Final Vote Count:
Qvist (4): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn, Hydrad, Hugovj
Hugovj (2): Awaclus, Qvist
Awaclus (1): ADK
With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.
Qvist has been lynched. He was an Aholehole, the town Jailkeeper.
Night 2 will end at 2:00 p.m. on November 20, 2014.
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AndrewisFTTW has been killed! He was a Stonefish, a Vanilla Townie.
Thread Unlocked!
Vote Count 3.0:
Not Voting (5): Awaclus, Hugovj, silverspawn, Hydrad, ADK
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 3 will end at 3:00 p.m. on November 26, 2014. (I'm shortening it by one day to avoid ending on Thanksgiving/Black Friday/weekend.)
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Well all my theories were wrong. People, please be careful with your votes, because scum can quickhammer here. I'm definitely leaning on a Hugo/awaclus scumteam at this point but would like to hear their thoughts.
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Well all my theories were wrong. People, please be careful with your votes, because scum can quickhammer here. I'm definitely leaning on a Hugo/awaclus scumteam at this point but would like to hear their thoughts.
I'm pretty convinced that Hugo is scum now. Also pretty convinced that I'm not.
Now we know that Hydrad could be telling the truth about his PR or getting away with a lie, since Qvist turned out to be a Jailkeeper. Without rereading anything, I'd say that he makes the most sense as Hugo's scum partner. He also didn't really do anything d2 other than voting for Qvist, which is pretty scummy.
Oh, and like I said in the V/LA thread, I'm not sure how much I will be able to be present during this weekend. I'm guessing I'll have time to read stuff and maybe share some of my brief thoughts on them like this, but probably not enough time to reread anything or write long walls of text, so I'm going to re-read everyone who's still in the game early next week.
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I'm looking at hugo right now also. I think he knew what he was doing when he lynched qvist and is trying to pretend like he didn't mean to.
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Well all my theories were wrong. People, please be careful with your votes, because scum can quickhammer here. I'm definitely leaning on a Hugo/awaclus scumteam at this point but would like to hear their thoughts.
I'm pretty convinced that Hugo is scum now. Also pretty convinced that I'm not.
Now we know that Hydrad could be telling the truth about his PR or getting away with a lie, since Qvist turned out to be a Jailkeeper. Without rereading anything, I'd say that he makes the most sense as Hugo's scum partner. He also didn't really do anything d2 other than voting for Qvist, which is pretty scummy.
Oh, and like I said in the V/LA thread, I'm not sure how much I will be able to be present during this weekend. I'm guessing I'll have time to read stuff and maybe share some of my brief thoughts on them like this, but probably not enough time to reread anything or write long walls of text, so I'm going to re-read everyone who's still in the game early next week.
So who do you think is Hugo's partner? And JK unfortunately doesn't give us much more information than we had before. Hydrad could have picked the only possible scum fakeclaim and gotten lucky.
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Well all my theories were wrong. People, please be careful with your votes, because scum can quickhammer here. I'm definitely leaning on a Hugo/awaclus scumteam at this point but would like to hear their thoughts.
I'm pretty convinced that Hugo is scum now. Also pretty convinced that I'm not.
Now we know that Hydrad could be telling the truth about his PR or getting away with a lie, since Qvist turned out to be a Jailkeeper. Without rereading anything, I'd say that he makes the most sense as Hugo's scum partner. He also didn't really do anything d2 other than voting for Qvist, which is pretty scummy.
Oh, and like I said in the V/LA thread, I'm not sure how much I will be able to be present during this weekend. I'm guessing I'll have time to read stuff and maybe share some of my brief thoughts on them like this, but probably not enough time to reread anything or write long walls of text, so I'm going to re-read everyone who's still in the game early next week.
So who do you think is Hugo's partner? And JK unfortunately doesn't give us much more information than we had before. Hydrad could have picked the only possible scum fakeclaim and gotten lucky.
Hydrad, that's what I said, but this is just a feeling, mostly based on both you and silverspawn appearing towny on surface now and Hydrad not appearing so towny lately. I might change my mind later, if I think that either your or silverspawn's interactions with Hugovj/people in general are more suspicious. And Qvist being the JK does kind of give us more information, that being the absence of other information that we could have gotten from him being another PR. Originally there was a small chance of success for fakeclaiming in Hydrad's position, but now, we can rule out lots of scenarios where it wouldn't have worked out, and the remaining two scenarios leave us with a 50% chance of Hydrad being scum, if that's the only thing we're taking into account, which is a lot more than it was yesterday.
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The thing is, scum!Hydrad wouldn't have known that BP was a safeclaim (past the 25% chance).
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gah this is bad I can't tell if I'm being tricked or not
ADK looks towny right now and although I'm worried that hes tricking everyone I have to have some trust in someone.
SS is starting to look scary to me. I don't know why but I have a feeling like only one of Hugo or awaclus is scum so I'm wary of SS here.
awaclus - I dunno. still kinda towny but I could be getting tricked. but i kinda don't want to lynch him today? But if hes the only option to lynch I'll still vote him
Hugo - I guess the scummiest. But only about 80% sure.
Thats how I am right now.
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*sad sigh*
okay, so, the fact that Qvist was our JK doesn't actually make Huvo more or less scummy... because scum couldn't know that he was JK either. So, we're just left with the fact that he quickhammered town. this could either be a mistake or a desperate scum move; so let's see which options seems more likely:
Town Mistake: Well, all I can say about this is that I actually had it in my head that we need 5 for a lynch, so... I can kind of believe that town!Hugo just messed up there.
Scum Move:
Okay, so for this we need to analyze the game state at the moment of the quick hammer. This was the vote count:
Vote Count 2.6:
Qvist (2): AndrewisFTTW, silverspawn, Hydrad
Hugovj (2): Awaclus, Qvist
Awaclus (1): ADK
Not voting (2): Hydrad
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. [...]
So, two people were voting for him already. But in addition to that, several people have expressed suspicion towards him:
Hugovj: I don't really know. From a wagon perspective, he is looking pretty bad, but his posts are complete nullish to me. If he was a complete noobie, maybe I'd give him town cred for his style, but he said that he played a lot of werewolf before, which is almost the same, so... 8 points for the bad wagon and no town read.
(8 was my highest score)
vote: awaclus
Now it goes like Scummy: awaclus>hugo>qvist>hydrad>andrew>silverspawn
(This is an update from his original post, but he posted this before the quickhammer happened)
My top vote is currently Vote: Hugovj
and
Hmm ADK brought up some good points. I think my top 2 to lynch right now would be hugo/qvist. awaclus is moving up there in my scum reads but I like the others more then him. Right now I like qvist the most still.
Vote: Qvist This is L-1.
summary: 2 people were voting for him, 2 people (one overlap) had him as top scum read, and 2 more had him as scum read #2. So, Andrew is actually the only player who did not either vote for him already or had him as #1 or #2 scum in his list (aside from himself of course).
Slightly simplified, Hugo had two options.
Option A: quickhammer, have 100% chance to survive this day, and X% to survive the next day
Option B: don't quickhammer, have Y% chance to survive this day, and Z% to survive the next day.
In the scenario I desrcibed, I think Y is about 30, Z probably similar. And X is probably low, but still, option A looks much better. even if X is 0%, A still looks better.
Yeah... this narrative is actually really good. And there is even more, because A also ensures that his scum buddy survives the day, while B doesn't.
So, based on all that, I think it's clear that scum!Hugo should have hammered there. Of course, that's just one side of the picture, because even if it was good play, it doesn't mean that he necessarily did it. We don't know how much he thought it through.
PPE a bunch
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Right now I'm at
Hugo > Awaclus > Hydrad > ADK
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ehh and ADK is the one without vote in vote count, not Hydrad, and Qvist is at (3) not (2)
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The thing is, scum!Hydrad wouldn't have known that BP was a safeclaim (past the 25% chance).
do we really want to bet on a 25% chance though?
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My point is, would Hydrad have made that bet? I don't think he would.
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My point is, would Hydrad have made that bet? I don't think he would.
your correct!
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Here's the thing: literally everyone is saying they're willing to lynch Hugo. Which means if he's scum, his partner is bussing him.
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Here's the thing: literally everyone is saying they're willing to lynch Hugo. Which means if he's scum, his partner is bussing him.
thats whats worrying me. It seems to easy. so it could be awa/SS going for the easy mislynch which would be horrible.
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Here's the thing: literally everyone is saying they're willing to lynch Hugo. Which means if he's scum, his partner is bussing him.
well yeah. I think I just showcased that quickhammering there was the right play even with 100% chance of being lynched today though, so I totally believe that his partner would buss here. not doing it would be very ballsy.
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but no matter how good the narrative is, that doesn't mean he couldn't do this as town too. I'll definitely reread interactions before voting.
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I mean, Hugo's been online between the start of day and now, and hasn't posted anything, which isn't exactly encouraging.
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Here's the thing: literally everyone is saying they're willing to lynch Hugo. Which means if he's scum, his partner is bussing him.
But nobody is actually voting for him. Someone could be just saying that they're willing to lynch Hugo with no intention of actually doing so, unless it becomes apparent that he's clearly the only one we can lynch today.
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Not that anyone should vote, yet.
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Well, this sucks. On all fronts. I'm really sorry about the derphammer, and I can understand that I'm the obvious candidate to lynch now.
I still do trust Hydrad though. Even though the possibilities for our set-up include both the one without a second PR and the one where Hydrad is speaking the truth, I kind of think his claim is legit. More of a feeling.
I don't know about the other three. I'm guessing on a Awaclus/Silverspawn-team, but again, that's based on gut. I can see all three of them be scum, and as we're in lylo, I'll do a reread soon.
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Well, this sucks. On all fronts. I'm really sorry about the derphammer, and I can understand that I'm the obvious candidate to lynch now.
I still do trust Hydrad though. Even though the possibilities for our set-up include both the one without a second PR and the one where Hydrad is speaking the truth, I kind of think his claim is legit. More of a feeling.
I don't know about the other three. I'm guessing on a Awaclus/Silverspawn-team, but again, that's based on gut. I can see all three of them be scum, and as we're in lylo, I'll do a reread soon.
I'm not sure if this wants to make me lynch you more or less. On the one hand, I feel like scum!you is probably going for the more plausible hydrad lynch; but on the other hand, you might want us to think just that.
If you are scum, I'm also not sure what this says about your partner. Is it hydrad, and that's why you don't want to push him? Or is it Awaclus, and you named him as your scum read to improve his image in LyLo?
I think it has to be one of those two. I doubt it is ADK.
I think a reread for interactions is warranted.
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Hugo-Hydrad
#77: Hydrad replies to Hugo about a non-game specific thing (how roles are distributed)
#110 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434492#msg434492): here we have a rather interesting post from Hugo. Firstly he talks about how Hydrad is overreacting and how that's scummy (even though it's not for hydrad, but he couldn't know), but then he doesn't continue on this line of thought and instead says Qvist is scummy for jumping off the wagon, and proceeds to call a Hydrad-Qvist scum team. But then he votes for Andrew.
#221 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg434892#msg434892) we have Hugo come back after about 100 posts of silence, and he addresses both Awaclus and Hydrad in the same post. Basically says Hydrad is too scummy to be scum. This is not really suspicious, because it's true.
231: Hydrad mentions that Hugo isn't even voting for him.
#256 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436129#msg436129): Hydrad has this baffling post where he encourages Hugo to put him at L-1, because wagons are pro town.
#310 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436546#msg436546): Hugo responds to a post form Hydrad that wasn't even directed at him. It was more or less a summary of his feelings.
#315 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436626#msg436626): Hugo puts Hydrad at L-1.
#403 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436770#msg436770): This one is huge. Hydrad says he wants to hammer pit for self-preservation, Hugo unvotes pit and forces Hydrad to claim.
I think I don't even need to finish the reread. They have plenty of interaction (especially since Hugo wasn't even that active), and this bit at the end basically rules out the Hydrad-Hugo pairing. If Hugo is scum, Hydrad is a semi-IC in my book and vice-versa.
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There is really just no way Hugo forces his scum partner to claim a specific role, when there is 75% that it makes him obv!scum
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FYI I'm pretty V/LA for the weekend, I'll do a big reread early next week. I like what I'm seeing from Silverspawn though.
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Ya I'm leaning towards Hugo awaclus now. I'm still worried a bit but I guess thats normal in these situations.
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Hugo-Awaclus:
#165: Awaclus posts a reads list and briefly mentions Hugo. says he is overstating things.
#173/#229: Awaclus uses his name, but doesn't say anything about him.
Then we have the previously mentioned quote where Hugo is addressing both Awaclus and Hydrad:
I don't know about Awaclus. I get a town read from his posts, but then again, I do think he was really defending Hydrad. I think these two could be scum together, but that's just as wild a guess as before.
#376 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436711#msg436711): this is pretty big. Awaclus (who was very active, mind you) hasn't quoted a post from Hugo even once the entire game, and then he goes on to make a big reread of him and votes for him. What a way avoid suspicion. And then he changes his vote like 4 posts later back to pit.
Hugo then answers in post #392 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg436744#msg436744), they discuss it for like half a page, and then it's done.
--- end of day 1 ---
#480 (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg438654#msg438654): They bring the case up again, each writes one post, that's it.
Then Hugo derphammers Qvist.
--- end of day 2 ---
#548: (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg441323#msg441323) Awaclus immediately comes out saying that he thinks Hugo is scum.
ADK confronts him, Awaclus says he thinks Hydrad is probably Hugo's partner. Way to line up a mislynch. we lynch his partner, then it's 2-1, and he is pushing the hydrad case during the last day.
--- current point ---
so, this narrative is looking worlds better than the Hugo-Hydrad one. I strongly feel the Awaclus/Hugo pairing. I think they decided N1 that they needed some kind of interaction, and brought up the case Day 2 again; and N2 they decided that it was best for Hydrad to push the Hugo case, because he was probably going to get lynched anyway, and Awaclus would then have decent chances to win as the last scum. The lack of interaction for the biggest part of day1 is a huge tell, especially because Awaclus was so active.
I really want to lynch one of them today. I still prefer Hugo, because he looks scummier in a vacuum, but if one flips scum I definitely want to do the other, and we can't mislynch anyway, so... the order doesn't make much of a difference.
PPE 2
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Vote Count 3.1:
Not Voting (5): Awaclus, Hugovj, silverspawn, Hydrad, ADK
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 3 will end at 3:00 p.m. on November 26, 2014.
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This is a public prod of all players.
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Well at them moment I guess people are still thinking of a hugo lynch? I'm a bit worried that it could be scum team trying to setup a easy mislynch here but I don't think I can see anyone but hugo going today.
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well, I'd be willing to do Hugo or Awaclus. we still shouldn't vote because of quickhammering (though it probably doesn't matter because Hugo is scum), but everyone could at least say which players he wants to lynch, or reread if he wants to do that first. The deadline is in 3 days, so there's some time left.
we obviously should not no-lynch.
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I'd be willing to lynch mostly Hugovj, but lynching Hydrad would be fine too. I need to write proper responses to the longer posts, and re-read and stuff, but right now I'm unable to do that.
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I'd like to lynch Hugo. I'm going to do a reread before I vote, and I currently don't have time for that.
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Well, you can lynch me in that case. It won't help for two of you, but I think that's the case with all lynches at this point. Congrats Mafia, well played.
I'm still most willing to lynch Awaclus, but I don't see my opinion really mattering here.
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This is pending a reread but I might want to vote for awaclus, as an awaclus/silverspawn team seems more plausible than a hugo/silverspawn team.
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so, virtual vote count:
Awaclus: silverspawn, ADK, Hugo
ADK: -
Hugo: silverspawn, ADK (?)
Hydrad: -
silverspawn: Hugo
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actually we can include Awaclus too, as he said he is okay with Hugo or Hydrad
Awaclus: silverspawn, ADK, Hugo
ADK: -
Hugo: silverspawn, ADK (?), Awaclus
Hydrad: Awaclus
silverspawn: Hugo
Hydrad should make a decision here too.
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btw, Awaclus and Hugo are the only Players who are voting for each other
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oh, actually that's not true, Hugo is also "voting" for me.
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I'm ok with a awaclus vote as I think either way hes the scum partner. I agree that I can't see a hugo/SS team so awaclus might be safer.
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Posting to avoid prod, but my reread's going to have to wait until tomorrow. Hugo, Awaclus, do either of you care to make a case on Silverspawn?
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Vote Count 3.2:
Not Voting (5): Awaclus, Hugovj, silverspawn, Hydrad, ADK
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 3 will end at 3:00 p.m. on November 26, 2014.
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Posting to avoid prod, but my reread's going to have to wait until tomorrow. Hugo, Awaclus, do either of you care to make a case on Silverspawn?
Maybe later today, I have to reread for that.
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we should, by the way, not completely rule out the possibility that ADK is scum. While he is my strongest town read, the fact that everyone is treating him as an IC is giving me a bad feeling. his scum buddy would certainly not make a case against him in this situation, rather vice versa.
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though I'm not lynching him over Hugo or Awaclus today, so I guess it doesn't matter
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I'm rereading now.
Hugovj was saying that Hydrad should full claim earlier than I remembered. I was thinking that it could have been Hugovj agreeing with the general consensus after it was already too late to prevent a full claim from happening, but yeah, that's not what it was. Also, silverspawn and ADK were, pretty much, the general consensus later, so Hydrad is probably town and we shouldn't lynch him.
So that leaves us with Hugovj/ADK, Hugovj/silverspawn and ADK/silverspawn. For pretty much the entire game, Hugovj has been appearing scummy to me, so I definitely want to lynch him today, but after that, it's super hard to say if silverspawn or ADK is his partner, because neither really seems very scummy. ADK was preemptively defending Hugovj early, his reasoning was good but he could have told Hugovj to make that townslip so that he could say how towny it is, and then Hugo has been high on his reads list, but he hasn't voted for him. Silverspawn has been interacting with Hugovj relatively little, and the relevant part of their interaction was SS saying that Hugo is his highest scum read but not voting for him, and after the Qvist lynch, he said that Hugo is our default lynch today and later said that it would be a good play for scum!Hugovj to hammer Qvist. Silverspawn was on the Qvist wagon because he "forgot" to unvote, ADK wasn't. Both alternatives seem possible.
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The lack of interaction for the biggest part of day1 is a huge tell, especially because Awaclus was so active.
Hugo wasn't. Hugo has a huge lack of interaction with basically everyone except ADK and Andrew who were discussing Hugo's "townslip" D1, because he didn't post much so there wasn't much to comment on. You didn't interact with him a lot either.
And I guess that's the only point there that I can address in a meaningful way. I could say that I was honestly trying to lynch Hugo D2, and that the reason why I made my case against him D1 was also because I wanted to lynch him that day (and then I changed my mind after Pit's actions and the huge number of posts happened while I was typing the post, but now we know that this was a mistake), and I would be telling the truth but there's no way for you to confirm it.
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The lack of interaction for the biggest part of day1 is a huge tell, especially because Awaclus was so active.
Hugo wasn't. Hugo has a huge lack of interaction with basically everyone except ADK and Andrew who were discussing Hugo's "townslip" D1, because he didn't post much so there wasn't much to comment on. You didn't interact with him a lot either.
And I guess that's the only point there that I can address in a meaningful way. I could say that I was honestly trying to lynch Hugo D2, and that the reason why I made my case against him D1 was also because I wanted to lynch him that day (and then I changed my mind after Pit's actions and the huge number of posts happened while I was typing the post, but now we know that this was a mistake), and I would be telling the truth but there's no way for you to confirm it.
So, what is the reason you never quoted him? Also, is there any narrative for a me + ADK or me + Hydrad team?
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So, what is the reason you never quoted him? Also, is there any narrative for a me + ADK or me + Hydrad team?
He never said anything that was worth quoting. And there could be a narrative for you + ADK, but I think that any team without Hugo in it is very unlikely.
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I'm very sorry, but I fell ill, so my reread is coming tomorrow. Promise.
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Why am I alive?
The first question I have to consider is, why hasn't scum chosen me for the nightkill? There are two reasons scum wants another player alive.
1) They think that the player is a potential mislynch
2) They think that the player will vote for a mislynch
If you're town and you're alive at lylo, you have to realize that scum thinks you're available for one (or both) of those things. The first one can be easy to spot: is your lynch being pushed? In my case, the answer is a pretty clear “no”. So the second point is probably what I have to think about. It has a lot to do with my previous reads, but also a lot to do with WIFOM, and who was chosen for the NK instead of me. Other than Hydrad on day one, there's no particular player that I feel I've been aggressively pushing, so it could be that scum wasn't as afraid of me as they were of other players. The other question is, who have I expressed a town read on—in this case, I've been very vocal about my town read on Silverspawn, so if he's scum he would likely want to keep me alive.
The Hydrad Claim
What's problematic about the Hydrad claim was that he claimed “PR” first, then Silverspawn posted his lengthy analysis posts, at which point Hydrad claimed what is conveniently the only potentially safe scum claim. There is a potential Hydrad/SS scumteam narrative here.
pit lynch
The pit lynch was largely driven by SS in the beginning, but I think it's a lurker lynch, through and through. All scum had to do here was sit back and let it happen, so I don't think anyone is particularly implicated. Which is one of the problems with lurker lynches.
qvist lynch
This is where Hugo looks the scummiest; not necessarily because of the derphammer, but because he jumps on a fairly safe wagon after a lot of people have already voted.
mprprs NK
As has been mentioned before, mprprs was someone a lot of people thought was towny, though he did hammer pit. He also expressed suspicion of Hugo.
andrew NK
To me, this was a strange NK. I don't feel like andrew was particularly high on anyone's town list; my own switch to thinking he was towny yesterday was based on me reading way too much into some of his posts and thinking that he was dropping hints that he was PR, which he obviously wasn't. I probably would have wanted to lynch him today. He also thought that awaclus was scummy, which might be indicative of why he was killed.
Today
The scummiest behavior today has come from Hugo, I would say, who's gotten fairly quiet with a lot of pressure on him. This is something that happens to scum- when the focus is on you, you tend to freeze up. If Hugo's scum, then Awaclus is his most likely partner in my opinion. Both of their posts seem fairly reactive, and it doesn't seem like they're as concerned with figure out who the other two townies are.
At a certain point, you have to be willing to bet the game on something. I find it implausible that Hydrad would have risked that claim, and if Silverspawn is scum here, he's doing a very good job. There's obviously a chance I'll regret my choice, but the time has come to make it.
vote: Hugo
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Awaclus, Silverspawn, you're both online, so if you want to come quickhammer, now's the time :P
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Vote Count 3.3:
Hugovj (1): ADK
Not Voting (4): Awaclus, Hugovj, silverspawn, Hydrad
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 3 will end at 3:00 p.m. on November 26, 2014.
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Well I am of course fine with the lynch, but the fact that you just decide to risk it seems a little bit weird. The way I see it, unless he is being quickhammered by the scum team once they're both online, you are effectively gladiator-ing him. Either you are scum or he is, otherwise scum would quickhammer. So, if that doesn't happen, we have narrowed the target down to two players. That almost makes me want to hold of the vote for a little bit.
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Someone has to risk it and vote first, and we don't exactly have all that much time.
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That's true, and I'm of course more inclined to vote for him than you. I guess it's just weird because I was expecting us to decide on a target before anyone votes and then all vote at once. Then again, scum!you would not have to risk this kind of play to avoid getting lynched, you were pretty much guaranteed to survive the day anyway.
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yeah it makes no sense for scum!you to do this, and I'm like 80% sure that Hugo is scum, so
vote: Hugo
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Vote Count 3.4:
Hugovj (2): ADK, silverspawn
Not Voting (3): Awaclus, Hugovj, Hydrad
With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
Day 3 will end at 3:00 p.m. on November 26, 2014.
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well I feel like I should at least wait until he makes his reread?
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vote: Hugovj
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Boo. Is that it then?
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Silverspawn? Are you there? Did you just win?
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Anyone want to say anything? That looks like scum hammering to me but if he's hammering his partner he's being really obvious about it.
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Seriously, I'm dying over here.
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Thread locked.
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Final Day 3 Vote Count:
Hugovj (3): ADK, silverspawn, Awaclus
Not Voting (2): Hugovj, Hydrad
With 5 alive, it took 3 to lynch.
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The reef was just getting more and more dangerous, and the fish population was thinning rapidly. Couldn't even blame humans this time...
Hugovj has been lynched! He was a Lionfish, a Vanilla Townie!
The reef is lost! Awaclus, the Great White Shark (Mafia Roleblocker) and silverspawn, the Salmon Shark (Mafia Goon) win flawlessly!
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Mod QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/euyECtmYjnaVV
Spectator QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/RiWYMJeVgSm
Shark QT: http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/e4rJaZWnPRP
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I'll let SP choose the MVP.
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Well shit.
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:)
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Well, good job then. Did you really not read the setup?
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I wanted to scream, "Silver is posting without voting!" I love* watching quickhammers go down in lylo - they're so obvious and so impossible to stop.
*by which I mean I hate
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Awaclus literally went offline at the worst possible moment there. we had a system planed to coordinate quick hammering in case anyone would vote... I really wanted to use it.
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Well, good job then. Did you really not read the setup?
thanks, and yes.
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This was worlds more fun to play for me then asoiafm
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dang it. i knew it was either awa/SS or hugo/SS i should of pushed an awaclus lynch better...
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although it might of not mattered
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*squee* I'm really happy
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dang it. i knew it was either awa/SS or hugo/SS i should of pushed an awaclus lynch better...
why? what was wrong with the hugo/Awaclus pairing?
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dang it. i knew it was either awa/SS or hugo/SS i should of pushed an awaclus lynch better...
why? what was wrong with the hugo/Awaclus pairing?
I think it was the fact that Hugo was town.
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dang it. i knew it was either awa/SS or hugo/SS i should of pushed an awaclus lynch better...
why? what was wrong with the hugo/Awaclus pairing?
I think it was the fact that Hugo was town.
Minor details.
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well hydrad didn't know that Hugo was town
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My biggest disappointment with this game was that no one even mentioned a mass flavor claim. I spent a lot of time choosing fish species.
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Ouch. That was a rough one.
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If I keep calling ADK scum I'll eventually be right.
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My biggest disappointment with this game was that no one even mentioned a mass flavor claim. I spent a lot of time choosing fish species.
Is something like there ever helpful?
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*that
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My biggest disappointment with this game was that no one even mentioned a mass flavor claim. I spent a lot of time choosing fish species.
Wait. My fish species was something I knew before I died? I guess I need to go back and read my pm.
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My biggest disappointment with this game was that no one even mentioned a mass flavor claim. I spent a lot of time choosing fish species.
Is something like there ever helpful?
It was not helpful. It was just flavor. Mafia had fake fish to claim.
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I'll let SP choose the MVP.
Hmm...I'll say Awaclus for MVP. It's hard to act towny when you're not town, but it's even harder when you don't know how town normally acts or have a town meta to emulate. He was consistently a top town read for most people early on, and even after people began suspecting him he did a good job finishing the game off, applying the just the right amount of pressure to the Hugo lynch to make it look good without making himself look bad.
Silverspawn played really well too though. I'm a little disappointed the quickhammer wasn't so quick, it would have been exciting.
I hope everyone enjoyed this game, I had fun following and modding it. I hope to see some of the newbies in more games!
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gg, both scum players played perfectly. Awaclus was always a little bit scummy to me, but it wasn't enough to get a case on him. Therefore I nominate silverspawn for MVP because he always was super town to me. For my jailkeeping I was considering mpsprs or silverspawn because they were the towniest to me. I'm so sad that I picked the wrong one. Other than that I think I played horribly. I didn't want to look super towny, so that I don't get nightkilled, but instead I got lynched.
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gg, both scum players played perfectly. Awaclus was always a little bit scummy to me, but it wasn't enough to get a case on him. Therefore I nominate silverspawn for MVP because he always was super town to me. For my jailkeeping I was considering mpsprs or silverspawn because they were the towniest to me. I'm so sad that I picked the wrong one. Other than that I think I played horribly. I didn't want to look super towny, so that I don't get nightkilled, but instead I got lynched.
I mean, jailing silverspawn roleblocks him as well, so had there been no kill N1 it could have worked out perfectly. Even though you misread him.
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gg, both scum players played perfectly. Awaclus was always a little bit scummy to me, but it wasn't enough to get a case on him. Therefore I nominate silverspawn for MVP because he always was super town to me. For my jailkeeping I was considering mpsprs or silverspawn because they were the towniest to me. I'm so sad that I picked the wrong one. Other than that I think I played horribly. I didn't want to look super towny, so that I don't get nightkilled, but instead I got lynched.
I mean, jailing silverspawn roleblocks him as well, so had there been no kill N1 it could have worked out perfectly. Even though you misread him.
I actually talked about this in our QT and I said Awaclus should do the kill because people had more of a townread on me and I was therefore more likely to be protected.
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I think that silverspawn played this super well, and then I just somehow managed to not ruin it. So if I got the MVP here, I would feel like I got it not because of my performance, but because I'm new, and I think that would be wrong.
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My biggest disappointment with this game was that no one even mentioned a mass flavor claim. I spent a lot of time choosing fish species.
Is something like there ever helpful?
It was not helpful. It was just flavor. Mafia had fake fish to claim.
I remember trying to get people talking about flavor in Adventure Time and being completely ignored. No on cares about flavor :'(
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Anyway, this was fun. Thanks to mods for modding and players for playing. Definitely going to participate in more Mafia games in the future.
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Argh... Sorry, that reread never came.
Well played Silver and Awaclus! Congrats :)
And sorry Qvist, counting is not my strong point :-[
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And sorry Qvist, counting is not my strong point :-[
If I would have had a chance to claim I would have get nightkilled, but we might have lynched someone else. But I guess neither silverspawn nor Awaclus were high up on the scum radar, so we might have lost anyway. So, it's alright. :D
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Does someone keep track of mvp's? and if so, who gets it now?
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Does someone keep track of mvp's? and if so, who gets it now?
I keep track of them.
Awaclus was selected as the MVP by scott_pilgrim. I'm good with that.
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I feel like a lot of games are missing MVPs...
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I feel like a lot of games are missing MVPs...
Like Dice mafia! I dibs MVP on all games I was in and there was no MVP selected.
man I'm so good at this game.
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Does someone keep track of mvp's? and if so, who gets it now?
I keep track of them.
Awaclus was selected as the MVP by scott_pilgrim. I'm good with that.
okay, then SP can you please explain why, because it looks like both Awaclus (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg442728#msg442728) and I disagree with you. I really hate that I have to argue for my own case here, but I would absolutely argue if I was in his position, so it's only consequent that I do it now too. As long as mvp is supposed to go to the mvp, I don't understand how this decision makes any sense, because I was considered townier for the majority of the game and made pretty much all night decisions.
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Does someone keep track of mvp's? and if so, who gets it now?
I keep track of them.
Awaclus was selected as the MVP by scott_pilgrim. I'm good with that.
okay, then SP can you please explain why, because it looks like both Awaclus (http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11989.msg442728#msg442728) and I disagree with you. I really hate that I have to argue for my own case here, but I would absolutely argue if I was in his position, so it's only consequent that I do it now too. As long as mvp is supposed to go to the mvp, I don't understand how this decision makes any sense, because I was considered townier for the majority of the game and made pretty much all night decisions.
Well I guess I thought of MVP not so literally. You are right that you probably were more valuable to the team than Awaclus, because if Awaclus had been replaced by someone else it's less likely to have hurt the team than if you had been replaced by someone else. I guess I was thinking more of who gave a more, uh, impressive? performance.
Also, I don't think it's true that you were townier for the majority of the game. I think people were treating Awaclus as super-towny early on, and it wasn't until the end of D2 and D3 that people began suspecting him, though maybe I'm misremembering. I may also subconsciously be taking stuff people said in the speccy into account, because I think people there had stronger town reads on Awaclus than you (checking the speccy now, it looks like it was actually just pacovf...).
Anyway, if you both agree you should be MVP, I have no problem with making you MVP. I didn't think anyone kept track of it, because it seems like a lot of games don't have one.
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Though I was out after night one (thanks for that, by the way :P), I did follow the game as it progressed. And I was fairly convinced up until the moment when Awaclus hammered that SS and Hugo were scum. So if the MVP in a scum victory goes to the scum who best impersonated town, I'd put my personal vote on Awaclus.
I don't think that should be the only consideration (things like who was the driving force behind mafia decisions and the like), but on that matter, that's my opinion.
Well played of course to both of you, as we never really got all that close.
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Anyway, if you both agree you should be MVP, I have no problem with making you MVP. I didn't think anyone kept track of it, because it seems like a lot of games don't have one.
yay