Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Eevee]

Eevee, what's the vote on Shraeye for? Although I think voting someone because they are on more "possible" scumteams is not a great reason for a vote, at least I understand where Theorel is coming from.

Why did you hop on with him, though? Do you agree with Theorel's logic, or is there a read there as well?

To be honest, this thread has sadly gotten way too long and cluttered for me to reread anything, so I only have my initial reactions. I voiced suspicion of shraeye already yesterday, basically for posting enough to not get called out but still not standing out much.

So, it was more like a prolonged feeling about shraeye, combined with theorel's analysis I agreed with and the fact I thought voting might get this day moving.

I absolutely agree about xeiron likely being town and this not going well. I just think we need to do something or we'll just never get anywhere, I don't have much faith in us winning this after the massclaim, but it has got to be better than this.

[Twistedarcher]

Ahoppy and Chairs come of scummiest in their support of the massclaim, I think. Ahoppy especially, who thinks that Xeiron is scummy, and has his vote there, yet is still in support of a Xeiron-driven-massclaim. That makes NO sense to me -- Nkirbit, who also has Xeiron as his biggest scumread, is taking a much more genuine position, I think (that he doesn't trust Xeiron or anything Xeiron wants to do, and won't participate).

Nkirbit's defiance towards Xeiron reads consistent and genuine. I also think Eevee's response is less suspicious than either Ahoppy or Chairs (but I'm probably biased since I think Eevee is town).

Ahoppy's contradiction a pretty big one, to me. Scum!Ahoppy wants to support this plan, since it's a plan made by a town member (and I'm assuming that Ahoppy and Xeiron both wouldn't be town)-- so he wants to be on record supporting it. Yet he still is voting Xeiron. I just don't think voting someone, while accepting their plan as a good idea, makes sense. If you are town, and you think the person proposing the plan is scum, you must think that he has a reason for the massclaim that will be beneficial to scum, I think.

Vote: Ahoppy

[Twistedarcher]

both wouldn't be town == both wouldn't be scum

[AHoppy]

Seriously, I go away for a weekend, and come back to less than a page?

This means that there's a serious lack of scumhunting going on. You know who doesn't care if there's no scumhunting? Scum! I think scum are more than happy to sit back, let Xeiron's plan take place, let the bankable time dwindle away, and not say anything. I also think it means that we're not really close to finding scum, and none of them have underwent any serious suspicion today. Yet another reason I think Xeiron is town (although I couldn't disagree more with the massclaim idea).

Fair enough.

I've been monitoring the thread, but am really out of ideas on this one.

I'm in a similar place as chairs. I see how mass claiming is bad. I understand. However, I don't see catching scum on my own today without more info. And if we don't, we lose. If we claim, it gives us a better chance of surviving another day and we can see what happens tomorrow. For me: I think the probability of losing today is high, and claiming reduces that drastically. So, we claim, we survive longer (hopefully) in order of likely hood (no math, all gut)
No claim, no lynch, survive but not much better off tomorrow
No claim, mislynch and lose
Claim, lynch, survive
Claim, mislynch, lose
No claim, lynch, survive and well off
(Bottom 2 close)

So I'm choosing the more conservative option, hopefully surviving. If that garners your FoS, so be it.

PPE: 3 posts

[Eevee]

Vote: Ahoppy

That's a good good point.

I reread Ahoppy day 1, and eventually mistakenly supported some other lynches (EHFW for a bit until she convinced me, then mail-mi) because he had one or two longer posts (after a reread) that had a bunch of genuine sounding reads on them. Most of his posting fits a scum narrative very well, and this wouldn't be a first time some newer player was able to fool me as scum by making long posts.

[AHoppy]

The biggest reason I'm supporting the mass claim, besides as noted above, is to get xerion to claim. If he's town, he's just doing more damage to town by sitting around saying he has this under control. If he's scum, hopefully catch him in a lie. I will continue to think he is scum until he claims, and if him claiming requires getting more information out there and possibly surviving then I think it helps us.

[Twistedarcher]

The biggest reason I'm supporting the mass claim, besides as noted above, is to get xerion to claim. If he's town, he's just doing more damage to town by sitting around saying he has this under control. If he's scum, hopefully catch him in a lie. I will continue to think he is scum until he claims, and if him claiming requires getting more information out there and possibly surviving then I think it helps us.

But if he's scum, and advocating a mass claim, you realize you aren't going to catch him based on a massclaim, right?

[Twistedarcher]

Soft Deadline: Friday, 8 pm

Does this work for people? We need to softdeadline. Yes, we probably must get this lynch right so we shouldn't rush it, but we need to keep in mind that even if we're right here, we still have more game left to play.

[Eevee]

Fine with that.

[AHoppy]

The biggest reason I'm supporting the mass claim, besides as noted above, is to get xerion to claim. If he's town, he's just doing more damage to town by sitting around saying he has this under control. If he's scum, hopefully catch him in a lie. I will continue to think he is scum until he claims, and if him claiming requires getting more information out there and possibly surviving then I think it helps us.

But if he's scum, and advocating a mass claim, you realize you aren't going to catch him based on a massclaim, right?

I suppose... that does make sense. But this game needs to get moving. Nobody has a compelling case besides nkirbit, (and I like my chairs case) so either we need to mass claim or push a lynch through. Right now I have town reads on nkirbit and TA and eevee, null on theorel, TBD on shraye, and scum on chairs and xerion.

[AHoppy]

Deadline works

[Twistedarcher]

D1, Ahoppy was on the Eevee and mail-mi wagons, and not much else. It really does make sense that scum shifted the lynch away from him, and towards mail-mi D1, though. This would support there being 3-scum on wagon for mail-mi. The scum needed to pile on there, to make sure that was the lynch to go through, and not the Ahoppy lynch -- one scum hopping off wagon might have been enough to tilt the balance the other way.

Ahoppy being scum makes sense given the switch towards mail-mi at the end of D1 on a weak case.

[Twistedarcher]

The biggest reason I'm supporting the mass claim, besides as noted above, is to get xerion to claim. If he's town, he's just doing more damage to town by sitting around saying he has this under control. If he's scum, hopefully catch him in a lie. I will continue to think he is scum until he claims, and if him claiming requires getting more information out there and possibly surviving then I think it helps us.

But if he's scum, and advocating a mass claim, you realize you aren't going to catch him based on a massclaim, right?

I suppose... that does make sense. But this game needs to get moving. Nobody has a compelling case besides nkirbit, (and I like my chairs case) so either we need to mass claim or push a lynch through. Right now I have town reads on nkirbit and TA and eevee, null on theorel, TBD on shraye, and scum on chairs and xerion.

Wait. You think Xeiron is scum, but Eevee is town? I need to look back and see if you've advocated the idea of this before, or if you believed that if Xeiron is scum, Eevee is also scum.

[AHoppy]

As I just said: I'll believe the nkirbit case until xerion claims. I haven't said anything about it before, I just remembered Eevee had a cop result say he was town, I just forgot it was xerion who said it. So, forget that, Eevee is scummy also until xerion claims, but not as scummy. He hasn't done anything to make him seem scummy to me, unless xerion is scum.

[AHoppy]

If I were scum, why would I switch to mail-mibas an easy case and not switch to the efhw case earlier?

[Twistedarcher]

Couldn't find anything specific on Ahoppy's views on Xeiron/Eevee.

Found this post, though:

This long post is Ahoppy's view on mail-mi, and why he's scummy. On re-read, knowing mail-mi's alignment, it looks sort of like he's trying to justify a vote he knows is a bad one ("Here's all the reasons mail-mi is scummy..." is looking for reasons to justify a vote, rather than a more neutral read trying to determine scumminess).

[AHoppy]

I will freely admit that is what I did. Am I happy? No. Was bit the wrong choice? Yep, absolutely. I knew lynching me meant lynching town, 100%.  There was a lower chance of that lynching mm, so I went for it. The day was at 63 pages and I just wanted it to end. I felt like that was best for town. But if mm's claim was compelling, I may have switched off him. But chairs never gave me that chance. As theorel posted earlier: every town directed lynch gives us info. Since no lynch wasn't happening, I went for mm. Also, I didn't expect half if town to die over night, so I figured even if he was town, we could afford one mislynch. Obviously, I was wrong.

[chairs]

Soft Deadline: Friday, 8 pm

Does this work for people? We need to softdeadline. Yes, we probably must get this lynch right so we shouldn't rush it, but we need to keep in mind that even if we're right here, we still have more game left to play.

Works.

I will freely admit that is what I did. Am I happy? No. Was bit the wrong choice? Yep, absolutely. I knew lynching me meant lynching town, 100%.  There was a lower chance of that lynching mm, so I went for it. The day was at 63 pages and I just wanted it to end. I felt like that was best for town. But if mm's claim was compelling, I may have switched off him. But chairs never gave me that chance. As theorel posted earlier: every town directed lynch gives us info. Since no lynch wasn't happening, I went for mm. Also, I didn't expect half if town to die over night, so I figured even if he was town, we could afford one mislynch. Obviously, I was wrong.

I don't think anybody expected all the madness that happened on N1.  I would've rather waited for a claim if I'd had any thought that we'd hit mylo on D2 (I figured a mislynch wouldn't kill us, and christ we were taking a long damn time to pick a lynch D1).

[Archetype]

Vote Count 2.2

xeiron (1) nkirbit
shraeye (1) theorel
chairs (1) AHoppy
Twistedarcher (1) shraeye
AHoppy (2) Twistedarcher, Eevee

Not Voting (2)  xeiron, chairs

With 8 alive you need 5 to lynch. The day will end on July 23rd.

[nkirbit]

I agree with TA that massclaiming is horrible, and am suspicious of the people supporting it as well.  Massclaiming may be good if we only had one of scum to catch, but we don't.  Everyone who is supporting a massclaim looks like they have the goal of "We need to get a lynch at all costs today", and this is WRONG.  We're not playing to survive until tomorrow... we're playing to win the game.  If we have to take a route that leaves us with a higher chance of a mislynch today but much, much better off in the long run, that's the route we should be taking.  And I think massclaiming takes us the wrong direction.

I will admit that I was kind of burnt out by day1 here, and have been struggling in my attempts to read.  I am uncomfortable with Ahoppy and Chairs for jumping on the massclaim train, because I think it's beneficial for scum more so than town.  At this point, I'm okay with the Ahoppy lynch.  We probably made a mistake not lynching him day1.  I trust TA here, he's my strongest town read, think he is making good points, and am comfortable sheeping that vote.

Vote: Ahoppy

[Twistedarcher]

If I were scum, why would I switch to mail-mibas an easy case and not switch to the efhw case earlier?

Because the mail-mi lynch was much more likely to go through -- people were wary of the EFHW case, and how hard Ash was driving it.

[Twistedarcher]

I agree with TA that massclaiming is horrible, and am suspicious of the people supporting it as well.  Massclaiming may be good if we only had one of scum to catch, but we don't.  Everyone who is supporting a massclaim looks like they have the goal of "We need to get a lynch at all costs today", and this is WRONG.  We're not playing to survive until tomorrow... we're playing to win the game.  If we have to take a route that leaves us with a higher chance of a mislynch today but much, much better off in the long run, that's the route we should be taking.  And I think massclaiming takes us the wrong direction.

This is a much more well-written way of exactly what I was trying to say. This is exactly why I oppose massclaiming.

[shraeye]

I agree with TA that massclaiming is horrible, and am suspicious of the people supporting it as well.  Massclaiming may be good if we only had one of scum to catch, but we don't.  Everyone who is supporting a massclaim looks like they have the goal of "We need to get a lynch at all costs today", and this is WRONG.  We're not playing to survive until tomorrow... we're playing to win the game.  If we have to take a route that leaves us with a higher chance of a mislynch today but much, much better off in the long run, that's the route we should be taking.  And I think massclaiming takes us the wrong direction.

This is how I feel as well; massclaiming can be a good way to get a final scumlynch, when one persons claims don't match with others.  But as long as there are multiple scum, I feel like their claims will end up being more believable because they've had a chance to craft a narrative for their actions in coordination with eachother.  In MeanGirls mafia, Eevee/yuma sealed the win for their team easily because yuma's fakeclaim backed up eevee's fakeclaim, and made town inherently believe them more.

[AHoppy]

I agree with TA that massclaiming is horrible, and am suspicious of the people supporting it as well.  Massclaiming may be good if we only had one of scum to catch, but we don't.  Everyone who is supporting a massclaim looks like they have the goal of "We need to get a lynch at all costs today", and this is WRONG.  We're not playing to survive until tomorrow... we're playing to win the game.  If we have to take a route that leaves us with a higher chance of a mislynch today but much, much better off in the long run, that's the route we should be taking.  And I think massclaiming takes us the wrong direction.

This is how I feel as well; massclaiming can be a good way to get a final scumlynch, when one persons claims don't match with others.  But as long as there are multiple scum, I feel like their claims will end up being more believable because they've had a chance to craft a narrative for their actions in coordination with eachother.  In MeanGirls mafia, Eevee/yuma sealed the win for their team easily because yuma's fakeclaim backed up eevee's fakeclaim, and made town inherently believe them more.

Alright.  You all have convinced me that massclaiming at this point is not the best path to go down.  I did not understand how to use it effectively, since the one other game I was in (mean girls) it was not used to towns benefit.  Still keeping my vote on Xerion, but withdrawing my intent to mass claim.

[shraeye]

also, the deadline on Friday is good.  I can finish my full rereads before then.