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[yuma]

(edit: http://y.ahoo.it/bz4XRDMA f.ds Bracket Challenge, password: theory

I chose yahoo because you can pick all of the games and the scores for them (only site that allows doing as such) compared to just picking who will win groups...)


The Draw is on Friday, there are so many good teams out there that just about any draw is frightening for any team.

The US weren't given any favors being put into group 3 with the Asia teams meaning that almost any draw will result in 2 difficult teams to face, if not 3.

I have been following the US through all of their qualifying and think they are playing perhaps the best soccer they have ever played, but I am not sure they will be able to get out of their group.

How do you think your country will do? Who would you want to face?

For reference here are the 4 groups.

Group1: Seeded Teams
Brazil
Argentina
Columbia
Uruguay
Spain
Germany
Belgium
Switzerland

Group2: UEFA, CAF and Conmebol
France
Chile
Ecuador
Ghana
Cameroon
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Algeria

Group3: CONCACAF and AFC
Japan
Australia
Iran
South Korea
Costa Rica
Honduras
Mexico

Group4: UEFA
Netherlands
Italy
Bosnia-Herzegovina
England
Portugal
Russia
Greece
Croatia

I just ran a few simulations and came up with the following for the US:

Switzerland, Portugal, US, Ecuador: two European teams and a pretty good S. American team, really bad draw.

Columbia, Greece, US, Cameroon: all good teams, but maybe the US can pull out of this one with a win and a tie somewhere?

Argentina, US, Cameroon, England: two powerhouses and a pretty good African team. Need to get lucky (ala England 2010) to get out of this.

Uruguay, France, US, Croatia: Two good, but struggling teams of late (Uruguay, France) and a midsized European team. Again need luck to get out of this, but there is a chance.

So four draws that are all difficult and none of them even had the real powerhouses: Spain, Brazil, Germany... regardless I am stoked for 2014. There is going to be some amazing soccer played in Brazil regardless of how well the US does it will be fun to watch.

[2.71828.....]

It will be interesting to see the final results of the draw, but I agree that it is probably going to look tough for the US no matter how it turns out.

It is also intriguing to see how a team like France will respond to barely qualifying.

I am also interested in the Netherlands. Amazing performance 4 years ago, a total flop (in the group of death) at the euros in 2012, but have been playing well since then easily qualifying.

So much to get excited about though.

[ashersky]

Definitely looks tough for the U.S.

Japan's my backup team, but they don't have it any easier this time around.

[Qvist]

Wow, the seeding is terrible.
I haven't followed national teams recently, but I'm surprised to see Columbia, Belgium and Switzerland seeded while Netherlands and Italy aren't. And that France is the team that was picked randomly into group 2 makes this even worse. I'm looking forward for a Brazil-France-Netherlands group or something similar.

[Davio]

I think it'll be hard for the Netherlands to do well, just because the number of extraordinary players is quite low.

We have Van Persie and Robben who are A+, Sneijder who is A when he's in form, van der Vaart who is B+ and the rest is all worse than that. Especially our defense is vulnerable as those guys only play in our own Mickey Mouse league in the Netherlands.

But to be honest, they have held themselves quite well through the qualification and the friendly matches, which quite surprised me. They're still young and inexperienced though and to go the distance on a World Cup, you really need a lot of experience, like we had at the WC in 2010. In 2012 we saw that you do have to make some changes at some point.

It's sad that we're not head of a group after qualifying with an almost perfect streak. The FIFA ranking is a bad system to base group heads on, because it goes back in time way too far, but we will see.

Worst case scenario would be something like: Brazil, Portugal and Mexico.

[kn1tt3r]

Group1: Seeded Teams
Brazil
Argentina
Columbia
Uruguay
Spain
Germany
Belgium
Switzerland

Group2: UEFA, CAF and Conmebol
France
Chile
Ecuador
Ghana
Cameroon
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Algeria
USA

Group3: CONCACAF and AFC
Japan
Australia
Iran
South Korea
Costa Rica
Honduras
Mexico

Group4: UEFA
Netherlands
Italy
Bosnia-Herzegovina
England
Portugal
Russia
Greece
Croatia
France

This is not entirely correct.

Currently Group 2 consists of only 7 teams (France isn't in there) and Group 4 of the remaining 9 European teams.

At the beginning of the final draw one team from Group 4 is drawn (randomly) and added to Group 2. Then this last Group 2 European team gets drawn to one of the four non-European teams in Group 1, in order to avoid later rules clashes (no two teams from the same continent - except 2 max. from Europe - may end up in one final group). From then on everything happens as usual.

EDIT:
So for the US, quite nasty things can happen, like Brazil, Italy and the Netherlands. Or Argentina, France and Italy. In fact, with Group 3 being the 'weakest' on paper, hardly any outcome would be very pleasant for the US...

[Davio]

Having looked at some simulations for the Netherlands, it isn't all too unfavorable for us, we do seem to draw Algeria a lot though.

But an example random draw for the Netherlands is something like: Brazil, Ghana, Iran, which we can work with. The #2 spot should at least be doable.

[ipofanes]

My favourite drawing would be Germany - Cameroon - Honduras - Italy. It should be possible to finish at least 2nd and we wouldn't have to face Italy before the final. Chile and Australia would be nice opponents to reenact the 1974 group, somehow the fourth contender in that group didn't qualify this time.

[soulnet]

Switzerland, Portugal, US, Ecuador: two European teams and a pretty good S. American team, really bad draw.

Ecuador is quite possibly the worst SA team qualified. Chile and Uruguay have been doing worse in the qualifiers, but they both lack a high altitude stadium to amplify home advantage, and also have way more experience in World Cups.

Wow, the seeding is terrible.
I haven't followed national teams recently, but I'm surprised to see Columbia, Belgium and Switzerland seeded while Netherlands and Italy aren't. And that France is the team that was picked randomly into group 2 makes this even worse. I'm looking forward for a Brazil-France-Netherlands group or something similar.

First of all, let me be pedantic, the name is Colombia, not Columbia (even in English), unless some university or clothing brand team somehow made it into a World Cup.

And, have you seen Colombia play lately? I would much rather face former champions Uruguay or France, or England, than Colombia, next year.

BTW, I am rooting for Argentina, but most of all, I want Brazil to be eliminated in the first round. Not because of rivalry, I love Brazilians, I just don't want some sporting success to cover the awful things that are happening to people there due to the World Cup (about a quarter million people were ejected from their homes so far due to stadium construction).

[Teproc]

"Former champion Uruguay"... I mean, that's technically correct but their last win was, what, in the 50's ?

In any case, I'm still surprised we even made it in, after that loss in Ukraine. My hope for the groups is that we get strong teams. We've always done better against big teams and we are huge underdogs this year, which is also when we generally do well (no one expected France to do well in 2006, everyone thought we were among the favorites in 2002... look how both of those turned out). The in extremis qualification will probably boost morale a lot and put the players in a "nothing to lose" state of mind, but we really lack a leader so it's gonna be hard. But theoretically the talent is here, so we could do surprisingly well.

That's what I'm hoping at least :p.

Other than that, I'm rooting for Germany as always (grew up in Bonn), but I haven't followed the qualifs at all so I have no idea who's in good shape.

[Davio]

I'm rooting for Belgium (as well as Holland of course) since they have quite a nice team this year and a lot of well known players.

Although their ranking is a bit high (group heads!), it's not totally undeserved.

[Kirian]

The Draw is on Friday, there are so many good teams out there that just about any draw is frightening for any team.

They just have to hope to draw 5/2 and go first.

[ipofanes]

"Former champion Uruguay"... I mean, that's technically correct but their last win was, what, in the 50's ?

Does current half-finalist sound better to you?

[soulnet]

"Former champion Uruguay"... I mean, that's technically correct but their last win was, what, in the 50's ?

Does current half-finalist sound better to you?

Also reigning South-American champions.

[Twistedarcher]

I think describing France as struggling to make the World Cup does an  injustice to the team. They got second in a group with Spain, even giving the Spanish a run for their money for a bit, and apart from the away leg in Ukraine have not looked bad at all in the past year

If the us gets Switzerland, Portugal, and Ecuador in our group, I will be thrilled.

[ashersky]

I think describing France as struggling to make the World Cup does an  injustice to the team. They got second in a group with Spain, even giving the Spanish a run for their money for a bit, and apart from the away leg in Ukraine have not looked bad at all in the past year

If the us gets Switzerland, Portugal, and Ecuador in our group, I will be thrilled.

I'm sure the Irish are annoyed they are in at all.  Never Forget the Hand of Gaul.

[shraeye]

Wow, the seeding is terrible.
I haven't followed national teams recently, but I'm surprised to see Columbia, Belgium and Switzerland seeded while Netherlands and Italy aren't. And that France is the team that was picked randomly into group 2 makes this even worse. I'm looking forward for a Brazil-France-Netherlands group or something similar.

Colombia/Switerland recently shot up the FIFA ranking, and even though there were in the top 10 in the October rankings (where the seeding comes from), they really didn't post any results that are obvious "reasons" for the increase in rating....they beat some mediocre teams, yaaaaaay!  I agree man, I just don't see it.

[Teproc]

Hey that was 2010. Granted it wasn't pretty (neither was our performance or the attitude of the team in South Africa), but the past is the past. We shouldn't have gotten in back then, but there's no reason to hold it against us now. Henry isn't even playing anymore.

I forgot Uruguay made it to the semis last time around, but the way they did it wasn't so great either. I guess they always struck me as the odd man out in the list of World Cup winners, as they're not a huge team that's always good. I guess that applies to France as well though.

[shraeye]

I think it's interesting that there are only 7 teams who aren't returning from last year:
Croatia, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Iran...all 2006 participants,
Russia, Belgium...2002 participants (it's really been that long for Belgium??)
Colombia, not since 1998.

It seems like an unnaturally high number of returners, but I don't have the energy to search out those stats for previous years right now.

[ashersky]

Hey that was 2010. Granted it wasn't pretty (neither was our performance or the attitude of the team in South Africa), but the past is the past. We shouldn't have gotten in back then, but there's no reason to hold it against us now. Henry isn't even playing anymore.

I forgot Uruguay made it to the semis last time around, but the way they did it wasn't so great either. I guess they always struck me as the odd man out in the list of World Cup winners, as they're not a huge team that's always good. I guess that applies to France as well though.

What year was the Zidane headbutt?

[2.71828.....]

Hey that was 2010. Granted it wasn't pretty (neither was our performance or the attitude of the team in South Africa), but the past is the past. We shouldn't have gotten in back then, but there's no reason to hold it against us now. Henry isn't even playing anymore.

I forgot Uruguay made it to the semis last time around, but the way they did it wasn't so great either. I guess they always struck me as the odd man out in the list of World Cup winners, as they're not a huge team that's always good. I guess that applies to France as well though.

What year was the Zidane headbutt?

2006

[Ozle]

I think describing France as struggling to make the World Cup does an  injustice to the team. They got second in a group with Spain, even giving the Spanish a run for their money for a bit, and apart from the away leg in Ukraine have not looked bad at all in the past year

If the us gets Switzerland, Portugal, and Ecuador in our group, I will be thrilled.

I'm sure the Irish are annoyed they are in at all.  Never Forget the Hand of Gaul.

Annoyed, but they seem to forget that A) There were not actually winning at that point anyway. and B) They got to that position with a dodgy handball from Robbie Keane in one of the qualifiers (Georgia I think?)

[Ozle]

Wow, the seeding is terrible.
I haven't followed national teams recently, but I'm surprised to see Columbia, Belgium and Switzerland seeded while Netherlands and Italy aren't. And that France is the team that was picked randomly into group 2 makes this even worse. I'm looking forward for a Brazil-France-Netherlands group or something similar.

Colombia/Switerland recently shot up the FIFA ranking, and even though there were in the top 10 in the October rankings (where the seeding comes from), they really didn't post any results that are obvious "reasons" for the increase in rating....they beat some mediocre teams, yaaaaaay!  I agree man, I just don't see it.

Average Rankings, its a system so bad it makes Goko look good.


Switzerland play only good teams from europe and South Africa as Friendlies.
Other countries play good and bad countries.

You get almost 0 points at all for beating a terrible country, and FIFA take the average (not the total) of all your results for the last few years.

This probably explains it better
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25134584

[Ozle]

At least this time England are expected to do pretty crap, throw in the South American continent and it will be a nice result if England get out of thier group.

Then I will support anyone I have in a sweepstake, and then probably just sit back and enjoy the football!

[theory]

I'd like to see England be placed into the:

England
Algeria
Switzerland
Yanks

group again