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[WalrusMcFishSr]

Hey that was 2010. Granted it wasn't pretty (neither was our performance or the attitude of the team in South Africa), but the past is the past. We shouldn't have gotten in back then, but there's no reason to hold it against us now. Henry isn't even playing anymore.

I forgot Uruguay made it to the semis last time around, but the way they did it wasn't so great either. I guess they always struck me as the odd man out in the list of World Cup winners, as they're not a huge team that's always good. I guess that applies to France as well though.

What year was the Zidane headbutt?

2006

I was in Berlin for the 2006 World Cup! Really cool experience. Didn't actually see any games in person but just cheering and getting drunk on the Fanmeile was exhilirating enough.

[yuma]

This is not entirely correct.

Currently Group 2 consists of only 7 teams (France isn't in there) and Group 4 of the remaining 9 European teams.

At the beginning of the final draw one team from Group 4 is drawn (randomly) and added to Group 2. Then this last Group 2 European team gets drawn to one of the four non-European teams in Group 1, in order to avoid later rules clashes (no two teams from the same continent - except 2 max. from Europe - may end up in one final group). From then on everything happens as usual.

EDIT:
So for the US, quite nasty things can happen, like Brazil, Italy and the Netherlands. Or Argentina, France and Italy. In fact, with Group 3 being the 'weakest' on paper, hardly any outcome would be very pleasant for the US...

Thanks for pointing that out. I intended to clarify this was the case, but forgot.

Yes, the US--well anyone in group three is going to have it difficult.

But another interesting point is to view it from outside the US's perspective. Anyone else is going to be unlucky to draw the US compared to the other teams in group three (maybe Mexico--horrible form, but still potentially deadly--or Japan would be considered equal threats, but mostly the US from group 3). As a result unless the US gets extremely lucky and ends up with some duds the group the US is in will be a group of death. Although this year many are expecting there to be 2-3 groups of death.

Really the teams I think the US wants to draw from are:

Group1: Switzerland, Columbia
Group2: Ecuador, Algeria
Group4: Bosnia, England, Croatia, Greece (Portugal and Russia scare me)

The other big talking point of late is where you get put in Brazil for your matches. Climate concerns (ranging from hot and humid to freezing and sopping wet) and huge traveling distances will make things interesting.

[Davio]

Wow, the seeding is terrible.
I haven't followed national teams recently, but I'm surprised to see Columbia, Belgium and Switzerland seeded while Netherlands and Italy aren't. And that France is the team that was picked randomly into group 2 makes this even worse. I'm looking forward for a Brazil-France-Netherlands group or something similar.

Colombia/Switerland recently shot up the FIFA ranking, and even though there were in the top 10 in the October rankings (where the seeding comes from), they really didn't post any results that are obvious "reasons" for the increase in rating....they beat some mediocre teams, yaaaaaay!  I agree man, I just don't see it.

Well, it could be just be the way the ranking works.

For the ranking points we add: Avg points for last year + Avg points for 1 year to 4 years back

So the last year is very important and accounts for half of the total points, but what's also important to note is that this is a sliding window. Not only are new results added, but old (potentially bad ones) are cut off.

In sept/oct 2009 Switzerland tied Latvia and Israel and beat Luxembourg, not all too impressive.
Colombia lost to Uruguay and Chile while beating Paraguay.

I'm pretty sure the rankings are "correct" meaning that Colombia and Switzerland indeed have this many points, but I would emphasize last year results even more, or give less weight to years back.

For instance: P = 0.5 x last year + 0.4 x 2 years back + 0.1 x 3 years back

Teams play about 2 years with roughly the same team, in Europe at least, because that's the interval period between European and World Championships.

[theory]

Holy crap the US got dumped on in the draw.  Got the dreaded G4 By far the most travel required out of every possible group slot, including the horrible Manaus, with Germany Ghana Portugal??

[theory]

Also France in Group E because OF COURSE FIFA

[Teproc]

So much for getting a strong group. We're horrible against small teams ! Calling it now, France doesn't get out of this super easy group. We're gonna draw against Switzerland and lose to Ecuador or something.

[Twistedarcher]

Grumble.

[Ozle]

Haha, was a good draw for England.
Now when we go out in the group stage it will be to good teams

First game in Manauas as well, which is the only game to be at 2am in the morning here! Yay for getting up early to watch a boring slow game against Italy...

[Ozle]

So much for getting a strong group. We're horrible against small teams ! Calling it now, France doesn't get out of this super easy group. We're gonna draw against Switzerland and lose to Ecuador or something.

Super Easy?

I would rather play France than either Ecuador in South America or Switzerland!

[Davio]

Let's throw some statistics at the draw, because hey, why not?

Here are the total (current) FIFA ranking points for each group:

Code: [Select]

a 3577
b 4191
c 3811
d 4031
e 3546
f 3497
g 4358
h 3345

So group G with Germany, Portugal, Ghana and the USA is the "group of death" on paper, with Spain, Netherlands, Chile and Australia coming in second. The least interesting group would be H with Belgium, Algeria, Russia and S-Korea.

Here are the strengths of the opponents of each team (basically the group total - the team points), forgive the awkward formatting:

Code: [Select]

Australia 3627
 Ghana 3509
 USA 3339
 Costa Rica 3293
 Portugal 3186
 Chile 3177
 Japan 3173
 Netherlands 3085
 Germany 3040
 England 2990
 Cameroon 2965
 Italy 2911
 Uruguay 2899
 Côte d'Ivoire 2893
 Honduras 2858
 Iran 2847
 Nigeria 2787
 Korea Republic 2768
 Greece 2756
 Ecuador 2694
 Mexico 2685
 Spain 2684
 France 2653
 Colombia 2611
 Bosnia-Herzegovina 2611
 Croatia 2606
 Algeria 2545
 Brazil 2475
 Russia 2475
 Switzerland 2433
 Belgium 2247
 Argentina 2246

So, Australia, Ghana and the USA are up against it, while Argentina, Belgium and Switzerland should fly through their groups.

Of course, this is all just paperwork, don't put your house on Argentina winning it all just yet.

[Qvist]

Group A

Brazil - Croatia - Mexico - Cameroon

Brazil should clearly win this group, especially with home advantage. But all 3 teams can be very strong if in good form. Cameroon is probably currently not as good as a few years ago, so I guess Brazil and Croatia will advance.


Group B

Spain - Netherlands - Chile - Australia

Anything beside Spain + Netherlands would be a surprise to me. But you clearly want to win this group as you will probably face Brazil if you come second.


Group C

Colombia - Greece - Ivory Coast - Japan

This seems the weakest group to me. I guess that Colombia and Ivory Coast will advance, but there is a lot possible here.


Group D

Uruguay - Costa Rica - England - Italy

Well, this is a tough group. Costa Rica has no chance here. There is a big probability that England will not make it, but I rather hope that Italy won't make it. Interesting group for sure.


Group E

Switzerland - Ecuador - France - Honduras

Meh, I'm not sure about this group, seems also rather weak. Honduras has probably no chance here and all depends on the shape of the French team, but Switzerland + France are probably the favourites here.


Group F

Argentina - Bosnia+Herzegovina - Iran - Nigeria

Should be a cake walk for Argentina. But who will come in second? Iran will probably be last. The African Teams are always hard to evaluate as their performances often varies. I hope for Nigeria here.


Group G

Germany - Ghana - USA - Portugal

If everything goes normal, Germany and Portugal should advance, but the performances of the Portuguese team varies also heavily. If Portugal has a bad week, both Ghana or USA have an outside chance.


Group H

Belgium - Algeria - Russia - South Korea

Another rather weak group IMO. This should be Belgium and Russia here, with Algeria being the unknown (to me at least) has maybe a outside chance. I can't see South Korea advance though.

[Ozle]

I think you are underestimating some of the south American teams in South America.

The quality of the teams like chile, Ecuador and Uraguay has shot massively up in recent years!

[Qvist]

I think you are underestimating some of the south American teams in South America.

The quality of the teams like chile, Ecuador and Uraguay has shot massively up in recent years!

I certainly don't underestimate Uruguay because I said that England or Italy might kicked out here.
I certainly don't underestimate Chile, but Spain and Netherlands are still the favourites, no doubt. They did poorly in the Euro, I know, but both are still current champion and vice champion.
I might underestimate Ecuador, yes. I don't know much about them.

[Ozle]

I think uraguay will win thier group, and Chilie can certainly spring a surprise in that group, its not so cut and dried Spain/Holland as people think
Colombia will walk thier group as well.

[Ozle]

I always have an accumulator bet on who makes it through....although to be fair im usually waaay off!

[2.71828.....]

As far as the US goes: I think we need to hope Germany sweeps the group, and we beat Ghana and tie Portugal. Then either Ghana beats Portugal and we advance, or it comes down to goal differentials. Obviously we want to get points off Germany, but that is doubtful. Really, if any team gets points off Germany I think it is likely that we see that team advance.

I haven't given much thought to the other groups yet.

[Ozle]

As far as the US goes: I think we need to hope Germany sweeps the group, and we beat Ghana and tie Ronaldo. Then either Ghana beats Ronaldo and we advance, or it comes down to goal differentials. Obviously we want to get points Off Germany, but that is doubtful. Really, if any team gets points off Germany I think it is likely that we see that team advance.

I haven't given much thought to the other groups yet.

Fixed that for you

[yuma]

While I wouldn't say our grouping is ideal it isn't a "worst case, doom's day scenario" that some people are making it out to be (not here, on other message boards and twitter).

Looking at the groups, let's sub the US into where they would be if they had been put into that group:

A - Brazil, Croatia, USA, Cameroon
B - Spain, Netherlands, Chile, USA
C - Columbia, Greece, Ivory Coast, USA
D - Uruguay, England, Italy, USA
E - Switzerland, Ecuador, France, USA
F - Argentina, Bosnia, Nigeria, USA
G - Germany, Portugal, USA, Ghana
H - Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea

Of those above groups, the US's current group is third or fourth most difficult. Group B would have been the true group of death, as would have Group D. Group F would have been difficult along with Groups A & C. Groups E and H I think the US might have had a better than average chance.

Basically the US was going to have a very hard group the moment CONCACAF were put into Group3 with the Asian teams.

Summary: The Group the US is in isn't the group of death because of the other teams in it. It is the group of death because it has the US in it. They are the best team out of Group 3. So really the unlucky teams are Germany, Portugal and Ghana...

I think the US has a fighting chance. Nate Silver has them at ~ 40% I think?

Matches I am most looking forward to:
USA vs Ghana (grudge match hoping for revenge from 2 last world cups)
Ghana vs Germany (brother vs brother version 2.0)
Spain vs Netherlands (Championship rematch)
Italy vs Uruguay (crazy Suarez vs crazy Balotelli)
Argentina vs Bosnia (Messi against one of my favorite players Spahic)
Mexico vs Brazil (just hoping to see Mexico get crushed here honestly)
USA vs Germany (hopefully this match is for something, meaning the US can advance and Germany needs it for first place or something like that but coach vs former mentor is a great story line)

[greatexpectations]

We have Van Persie and Robben who are A+, Sneijder who is A when he's in form, van der Vaart who is B+ and the rest is all worse than that. Especially our defense is vulnerable as those guys only play in our own Mickey Mouse league in the Netherlands.

van persie and robben are A+ but they are injured far too often. if either one of them are out the dutch are in trouble. that back line is a bit of a mess. i think that the dutch will be out unless they can get a good result against spain.

[Davio]

Netherlands have never beaten Australia, they can be quite tough.
And Chile in South America will be no cakewalk either. Netherlands really have to bring their A-game to have any shot at advancing and even if the do, Brazil will likely be waiting in the next round...

So, not the best of draws for us.

I think:
Brazil and Croatia
Spain and Chile
Colombia and Greece
Uruguay and Italy
Switzerland and France
Argentina and Nigeria
Germany and Portugal
Belgium and Russia

[soulnet]

I think:
Brazil and Croatia
Spain and Chile
Colombia and Greece
Uruguay and Italy
Switzerland and France
Argentina and Nigeria
Germany and Portugal
Belgium and Russia

I mostly agree with you, although I prefer the Netherlands over Chile, Ecuador over France and I do not know about Mexico vs Croatia. Mexicans are always tough in the World Cup, even though they played really bad lately. And I would put my money on Italy getting first place and Uruguay advancing on second (barely advancing is their specialty, also).

Chile played a horrible qualifier, getting good results, but without any impressive performances. I really like Alexis Sanchez as a player, but the rest of the team is pretty meh. I think it is the South American team I have less faith on. Also, Chile (most of the country, except the desert where almost nobody lives) has the weather most different from Brazil's among South American teams.

Summary: The Group the US is in isn't the group of death because of the other teams in it. It is the group of death because it has the US in it. They are the best team out of Group 3. So really the unlucky teams are Germany, Portugal and Ghana...

The real group of death is group D, no doubt. I do think the US still does not have enough experience to face world-class teams, although they may surprise me. I would fear England or France, even with their lousy present, more than the US.

Argentina vs Bosnia (Messi against one of my favorite players Spahic)

I expect this to be a boring win for Argentina. Maybe the match with Nigeria will be a little more interesting. African teams are always a strange challenge because their play is quite unorthodox and physical.

USA vs Germany (hopefully this match is for something, meaning the US can advance and Germany needs it for first place or something like that but coach vs former mentor is a great story line)

Certainly agree, it has great appeal. Although, I am looking forward to Netherlands-Spain and the Italy-England-Uruguay the most.

I might underestimate Ecuador, yes. I don't know much about them.

You are definitely underestimating Ecuador, although I am not saying they are favorites to advance. I am really not sure about all the statements about northern hemisphere coaches about the heat. I suspect they are just covering their us and trying to take some pressure off their own team. If it is really a factor for the French or the Swiss, that may give extra edge. I like how they played in the SA qualifiers, big improvement since previous years, although is hard to evaluate a team that has such big home-advantage due to their high-altitude stadium.

[soulnet]

BTW, this is the year in which I have less faith on European teams. With the exceptions of Spain and Germany, the rest of the supposedly strong teams do not seem as strong. On the other hand, I expect Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay to do quite well. Maybe revert what happened in South Africa's semifinals.

[yuma]

This has been a bad week of soccer for me.

First a not so great draw for the US in the World Cup and then Real Salt Lake just lost to Sporting KC in the MLS Final on penalties... 8-7 (yeah, 8 to 7... the game was one kick away from having the Keepers take penalties, something I have always wanted to see)

Sigh...

[Joseph2302]

the game was one kick away from having the Keepers take penalties, something I have always wanted to see

In South America, the goalkeepers often take the 6th penalty in a penalty shootout, which I find a bit weird. Also, according to wikipedia, a Brazilian goalkeeper has scored 112 goals- 59 free kicks and 53 penalties! (I believe the 53 penalties do not include penalties taken in penalty shootouts)

[yuma]

the game was one kick away from having the Keepers take penalties, something I have always wanted to see

In South America, the goalkeepers often take the 6th penalty in a penalty shootout, which I find a bit weird. Also, according to wikipedia, a Brazilian goalkeeper has scored 112 goals- 59 free kicks and 53 penalties! (I believe the 53 penalties do not include penalties taken in penalty shootouts)

I would have preferred our goalie to take one earlier in fact. Rimando has great feet and skill with the ball and is far more confident than the young players/defenders that we had taking the last few shots.