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Author Topic: Play well, lose on your turn  (Read 3112 times)

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blueblimp

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Play well, lose on your turn
« on: November 17, 2013, 08:04:35 pm »
+1

I just played a game where my opponent made a good play that resulted in him losing on his turn. How can this happen?
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liopoil

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2013, 08:17:51 pm »
+6

The good play increased his chance of winning, but made it random, and he got unlucky. For instance, he had to play swindler to get $8 for the last province, but he hit your province on the top of your deck.
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KingZog3

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2013, 09:05:03 pm »
0

Did he lose on HIS turn, or simply because of what he did on his turn?
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eHalcyon

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2013, 09:44:59 pm »
0

You had enough points that you were guaranteed to be the winner no matter what.  However, your opponent's play enabled him to come in second place in the 3-player game. 

Or you had secured the win, but your deck was completely stalled out, so ending the game was just better for everyone.
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blueblimp

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2013, 09:59:09 pm »
+1

Clarifications:
  • He lost at the end of the turn that he made the play.
  • It was a 2-player game. Good point though that deliberately doing it can be a good play in 3-player, depending on the rating scheme.
  • I hadn't guaranteed a win yet. It was a good play in the sense that it made him less likely to lose.

The good play increased his chance of winning, but made it random, and he got unlucky. For instance, he had to play swindler to get $8 for the last province, but he hit your province on the top of your deck.
Yep, that's the idea. There are lots of ways this can happen. Here's what happened specifically: He was 6 points down, there was one Rabble left and two piles empty. He started his turn with a University and Rabble in hand. When playing University, he gained the last Rabble, guaranteeing the game would end in 3-pile at the end of his turn, hoping that once he played the Rabble, he would draw cards good enough to gain a Province (to tie, as he was p2) or Province+Estate (to win). If he had got either of those VP buys but hadn't ended it on his turn, I'd had a very good shot at winning on my turn by gaining the last Rabble and buying an Estate or Duchy. So it was a good decision for him to trigger the 3-pile ending and hope to get enough VP. He couldn't though and lost.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2013, 10:00:10 pm by blueblimp »
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Davio

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2013, 04:45:29 am »
+3

Another example could be with Governor, hoping your opponent doesn't have a $4 in his hand for the last Duchy.
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Warfreak2

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2013, 04:51:35 am »
+2

Governor trashing allows opponent to do $7->Province (or any other VP gain).
Saboteur hits Province which is "downgraded" to 8VP Fairgrounds while emptying that pile.
Vault discard (or any trashing externality) allows opponent to discard Tunnels (or Market Squares), and pile out Gold.
Any trashing externality allows opponent to trash Hunting Grounds/Catacombs for last Duchy/3 Estates/Silk Road/Gardens/&c.
Necessary Herald, Golem or TR/TR/+cards play hits a forced trasher (or Masquerade/Ambassador) and has to trash/give away a VP card.

The thing that makes it easy is, in any situation where you aren't likely to have another move, any play which increases the chance of winning immediately more than it increases the chance of losing immediately is "good play" - it doesn't have to decrease your chance of losing immediately, as long as it decreases the chance of you losing overall.
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DG

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2013, 07:21:05 am »
+1

There are plenty of situations where you gain cards to empty three piles and then rely on drawing cards to buy the lead in vp.
It must be possible to name the right card for rebuild and get the wrong result.
An attack could empty the copper pile if the opponent has beggars.
An opponent could cunningly let you set the top card of their deck using spies and then pull out a secret chamber when you use a jester, forcing a three pile finish.
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soulnet

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2013, 10:13:14 am »
0

An attack could empty the copper silver pile if the opponent has beggars.

FTFY

An opponent could cunningly let you set the top card of their deck using spies and then pull out a secret chamber when you use a jester, forcing a three pile finish.

That would be the most awesome ending ever.
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jomini

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2013, 03:16:50 pm »
0

Well I think this basically is a problem of how can you end the game:
1. Pile out the provinces/colonies without a lead
2. 3 Pile without a lead
3. Get your opponent over 50% of the remaining points.

How is risking these worthwhile?

A. Incomplete information. Swindler is an excellent example, you may know the odds of hitting something (e.g. 1/5 chance you hit my province) so looking at the odds of losing this turn if you play swindler are low while odds of losing next turn are high (e.g. I have a Kc/Scheme deck). Better to roll the dice now. Likewise apprenticing a Duchy or a Province can be a strong odds move that nonetheless fails.
B. Mandatory actions. I Tr->Tr a Smithy and end up with only a Barons, coins, and provinces/duchies and no estates -> pile out the estates while buying a duchy & losing by 1. Golem can be particularly nasty here - mandatory trashing or gaining can really hurt, particularly for something like Fairgrounds.
C. Opponent reactions. If you Bishop a Hunting Grounds planning to 3 pile with a 1 point win ... will they instead trash their only curse (1/4 chance)? If you play Torturer for draw, will he take the curse and discard a Beggar to power up his gardens?

I think virtually all the answers are just pick a number, pick a letter, and then make assumptions as needed to get things to work out.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: Play well, lose on your turn
« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2013, 03:38:14 pm »
+2

I just played a game where my opponent made a good play that resulted in him losing on his turn. How can this happen?
An alternative to all the other answers given so far: it is a Possession turn.
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