Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[mcmcsalot]

Ok, so is the ~0+0.5% chance that he or I is scum enough to outweigh the ~5% or so difference in roleblocking chances for me? That's simplified for sure. But this is a game of probabilities as you know.

Mostly a gut feeling about mcmc, brought on by manda's general attitude towards lynching him or not or whatever...at this point I don't think scum really cares if there's a no lynch, and it doesn't take a whole lot to drive a mislynch home.

volt and manda could be scum I know nothing of her involvment so far, in that case I would still rather lynch volt.

[2.71828.....]

We've stalled out again.

We have had some action past this post, but I agree with the sentiment.  I am a strong advocate for a soft deadline.  drawing things out to the last second is never good.  I understand that has had to happen due to various V/LA stuff, but I think we are all here and can get something done.

Soft deadline at 11:59PM Sunday, Jan 5?  That gives us Friday and the weekend to figure something out.  I am confident that we can, and if we just look at the deadline as the 8th we will continue to have spurts of small activity but nothing real actually happening.

[2.71828.....]

We've stalled out again.

We have had some action past this post, but I agree with the sentiment.  I am a strong advocate for a soft deadline.  drawing things out to the last second is never good.  I understand that has had to happen due to various V/LA stuff, but I think we are all here and can get something done.

Soft deadline at 11:59PM Sunday, Jan 5?  That gives us Friday and the weekend to figure something out.  I am confident that we can, and if we just look at the deadline as the 8th we will continue to have spurts of small activity but nothing real actually happening.

^^forum time.  (Eastern US)

[Teproc]

Why is everyone discounting the possibility of strongman ? If scum does have a JOAT, that's the kind of thing they would try to keep for the endgame against a Roleblocker (which they would know exists since day 2, since they wouldn't have any reason to disbelieve Walrus' claim). Or they would have killed Walrus with it to get around e's Bodyguarding instead of killing, say, faust (although I guess Walrus wasn't quite an IC at that point).

Because to me, the possibility of strongman still being there is what's making me wary of a no lynch plan.

[2.71828.....]

believe me, I have not forgotten about strongman.  My guess is that they use that power (if they have it) tonight.  Because they want a roleblocker dead.  I will bodyguard Walrus (unless something crazy happens) so to kill Walrus they MUST strongman kill him.  Which makes me think I will die tonight, which is another reason I want to vote today.  Because then I get a voice in the matter

[2.71828.....]

believe me, I have not forgotten about strongman.  My guess is that they use that power (if they have it) tonight.  Because they want a roleblocker dead.  I will bodyguard Walrus (unless something crazy happens) so to kill Walrus they MUST strongman kill him.  Which makes me think I will die tonight, which is another reason I want to vote today.  Because then I get a voice in the matter

Well, I guess I wouldn't die if they do strongman.  The above post didn't make sense to me right after I posted it.  Because basically I implied I think they do not have JOAT, but I actually think they do, so Walrus probably will die tonight

[yuma]

Vote Count 4.4

Voltaire (2): 2.7, mcmc
manda (1): Walrus
No Lynch (1): Voltaire

Not Voting (2): Teproc, manda

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for Day4 is January 8 at 6:00 pm forum time.

[manda2014]

We've stalled out again.

We have had some action past this post, but I agree with the sentiment.  I am a strong advocate for a soft deadline.  drawing things out to the last second is never good.  I understand that has had to happen due to various V/LA stuff, but I think we are all here and can get something done.

Soft deadline at 11:59PM Sunday, Jan 5?  That gives us Friday and the weekend to figure something out.  I am confident that we can, and if we just look at the deadline as the 8th we will continue to have spurts of small activity but nothing real actually happening.

^^forum time.  (Eastern US)

I will be mostly V/LA Saturday and Sunday (5th and 6th) because of packing/moving back to school/completing graduate school applications. Depending on traffic I may be able to get a post in right before that soft deadline.

[2.71828.....]

Want to lynch to Don't want to lynch.  I can probably be convinced to switch up my stance on mcmc and manda but this is where I stand now.

Voltaire
mcmc
manda
teproc
walrus
2.7

I maintain that we should do a lynch today.  Voltaire himself has said that there is almost 0% chance that walrus or I am scum.  So why let one of us die off during the night to confirm something you already believe?  I think it is better to have our input in a lynch

[2.71828.....]

I will reread mcmc since Voltaire thinks he is the guy for a lynch.  If anyone else wants to do anything in this game that would be great too.

[2.71828.....]

mcmc reread

Answers the "what PRs do scum take" question twice.  Answers here then goes back and changes his answer here.  Possibly scum saying "I haven't thought too much about the PRs" in a low key sort of way?

Votes Teproc claiming a scummy feeling.  Then next post votes Ashersky (second vote on Ashersky).  Then unvotes Ash after saying Ash "responded towny to the arguments against him" which is interesting.  Ash only had two votes at the time. 

Votes 2.7 (pre-claim) for finding him slightly suspicious.

Makes an interesting point about expecting scum NOT to target Faust N1.  Either good town prediction or bold scum claiming what he will do

Found this interesting tidbit about two of our scum candidates (thought actually quoting would be good here)

Caught up but need to reread, voltaire seems to be buddying teproc like A LOT. Not sure what it means though.

Is the second vote on Morgrim (pre-claim)  Then affirms that he wants to lynch Morgrim (post-claim).  Pushes reasons for the Morgrim lynch.

D2
Opens with a developing scum!walrus feeling but backing down on Jimmmmm and myself.  Still gives Ashersky a null read.

comes null on the Ash/Jimmmm argument.

votes Walrus and affirms that the jimmm/ash thing is a null on both because he says it could come from town!ash or scum!ash as well as town!jimmmm or scum!jimmmmm.  So keeping the door wide open there.  He also says that if one of walrus/2.7 is scum, then one of Ash/Jimmm is scum.  setting up a mislynch?

Is the second vote on Jimmmmm after a Robz vote.

Lists Ash being scum as the least likely situation in the Jimmmm/Ash debate.

Disappears on a cruise for a while.  (makes the reread easier)  [joke]Definitely scummy.[/joke]

D3
Comes out of the gate calling Robz scummy.

Says Jimmmmm looked townier than Ash after the claim.  Interesting thing to say since we don't have live reactions because mcmc was gone at the point of the claim

Throws out the idea of a Volt/Robz scum team.  He then finishes up his reread with this post:

okay, rered complete, manda provided absolutely nothing of relevance, I tunneled into a read of robz/voltaire being a scum team, and tproc came of townie. robz game o good reason for pushing teproc. I am more certain volt is scum than robz is scum or teproc is town. so

SCUM:Volt>>>>Robz>>Manda>>>Teproc:TOWN

Asserts that he does not think Robz is the best lynch D3.

Then hammers Robz with 8 hours of day still remaining and people like myself and Teproc coming back to post more.

Out the gate D4 voting Voltaire. 

Continues today to outline reasons to vote Voltaire, even if he accidentally put something I said down for Voltaire.

mcmc, is it possible for you to do a full reread of Voltaire?

This reread has me concluding that I do not want to vote Voltaire today.  Both scum were on the Robz wagon from yesterday, and I think the scum team could very well be the two other people who received votes, namely Teproc and Voltaire.  Of those I maintain my vote: voltaire

[Teproc]

I'm assuming you meant to say this reread has convinced you not to vote mcm (instead of Voltaire, which is what you wrote). I'm not sure why though, since everything you've said in this post points towards his scumminess (almost). Is it just a matter of mcmx being scummy but Voltaire scummier ?

[2.71828.....]

This reread has me concluding that I do not want to vote Voltaire today.

That was supposed to say mcmc, not Voltaire. 

I think I have not made up my mind completely between mcmc and teproc, but I think Voltaire is scum

[2.71828.....]

This reread has me concluding that I do not want to vote Voltaire today.

That was supposed to say mcmc, not Voltaire. 

I think I have not made up my mind completely between mcmc and teproc, but I think Voltaire is scum

and then there is manda as well

[mcmcsalot]

I will try a full reread of volt before deadline

[Voltaire]

SOMEONE UNVOTE

I think I'm at L-1 and scum can quickhammer.

I don't have time to deal with this game today, don't please let us lose while I'm not around.

[2.71828.....]

you are L-2

[Voltaire]

Fine, if we're doing this vote: mcmc so there's something down while I'm gone.

[Voltaire]

you are L-2

This is why you don't bold an old vote. 

[2.71828.....]

you are L-2

This is why you don't bold an old vote. 

sorry

[2.71828.....]

Manda reread:  Figured it would be quick.  And it was.  Looking back, I found 12 posts with any content.

Here they are

D1
1.  #248 Kind of goes for fewer PRs (in response to the "rank the PR" question.  Doesn't really answer it though.

2.  #273  Says D1 passes are silly.  Not really much else.  Ash accuses her of sounding scummy so town points for Manda.

3.  #469  Kind of says mcmc is towny a bit?  Emphasizes that she doesn't like passes of any sort.

4.  #532  Votes Jorbles as a "good mislynch"  (she doesn't actually say that but that is what it seems to imply.

D2
5.  883  Apologizes for disappearing.  She then talks about the Jorbles NK a bit, even mentioning that he may have been killed because he got too close to scum with his votes from D1 (meaning myself and Ashersky (Ash was listed as "preferred lynch" along with Morgrim in Jorbles final popsquiz))

6.  #971  Defends Walrus against mcmc

7.  #1247  Says her gut reaction to Ash's claim was that it was fake. 

D3
8.  #1386  A reads post!  Says Walrus and Jimmmm are towny and believes the claims.  Says Robz and Voltaire are helpful and useful and town.  Says I am pretty much town.  Teproc is slight scum.  mcmc is null.

9.  #1446  Comes out saying she is leaning scummier on Robz than what her reads post indicated.  Basically does not like his defense saying it seems like "just begging people to trust you based on your insistence that you're town"

10.  #1547  Gaining more conviction that Robz is scum here.  Does not like his meta references and just sees the whole defence as really weak.

11.  #1555  Votes Robz to L-1.

D4
12.  #1583  Says she likes the no lynch argument better than the lynch argument.  Says mcmc looks scummy for the hammer+jumping onto the Volt wagon.

And that is Manda in a nutshell.  Basically, I think she is town.  Posts #5,6,7 and 8 are my primary reasons for this.  If I were to build a case against her I would use posts 1,4, and 11.  Posts 2,3,9, and 10 are all kind of null, but I totally see how Manda did not like the defense Robz gave especially considering her newness (which she doesn't like to bring up) and posts 2 and 3.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Interesting that Voltaire got so jazzed about the L-1. I want to say that's towny, although it could easily be forced. It would have been more genuine if it were actually an L-1 haha

At this point I would like to lynch, and I would like to lynch between our two lurkiest candidates, mcmc and manda. I think it is likely that there is scum among these two, and I feel that LALL'ing is our best move at this point. If we end up losing to lurker scum, we'll be all like "Awww man! I can't believe we lost to lurkers! What a bummer, shoulda LALL'ed." If we lose to crafty scum, at least we'll be like, "Oh ho ho! Well played you devious bastard." So let's avoid that feeling of hollow disappointment.

Now I actually did my homework and did a complete reread of mcmc, manda, and ash. After all that, I am still happy with my manda vote, although who knows, it could be both of them.

mcmc is actually less lurky than I thought this game. A quick ctrl-F will demonstrate that...of course there were also times of V/LA, but he can't hardly be blamed for that. So that's almost reason enough--I want to lynch a lurker here, not a pseudo-lurker. It's possible to construct scum narratives for his posts and reads and such, but there's definitely a town angle there too. And it just sort of feels like he's been a default scumread for the past couple days, and that kind of scares me...it's been very easy to get votes on him today for example.

manda has received so little attention and suspicion this game. Few votes, little suspicion, and a minimum of content. Practically every post is "Sorry I haven't been around, I'll post more later I promise!" If she were lynched, there would be so little to go by to find her partner(s), which is exactly what scum wants. The fact that she's skated by this long without much real scrutiny or pressure really raises an eyebrow for me. And if scum did in fact go for daychat, I could easily see them spurring her along--"Keep doing what you're doing, it's working great!" In GoT we had scum among the lurkiest of us and we completely succumbed to that. So maybe it's time to literally lynch the largest lurker.

Also, she and e are the only people whom I haven't roleblocked yet. So I'd want to roleblock her, but that would be WIFOMy.

Looking at the interactions with ash is tricky of course. Certainly he had much more salient interactions with Jimmmmm in particular, as well as Robz. But rereading him through the lens of mcmc vs. manda, I still think manda comes out behind.

mcmc is only mentioned a couple of times. The most notable thing ash said is "mcmc is scum. Write it down." He placed mcmc in his actilurker category, and comments on one of his ideas. That's about all I can remember.

manda on the other hand gets mentioned a LOT. Seriously, for a game where manda has been sort of in the background, ash makes an unnatural number of references to her. Early on he found that one post of hers scummy-sounding on semi-flimsy pretext, questions a D1 pass, then explained directly to her about why it felt hedgy. Calls her out twice directly for needing to post more. Defends her against Jimmmmm. Mentions her avatar (and its similarity to mcmc's, interestingly). Singles her out as a "scummy voter on Jorbles". Comments that her lurkiness is perhaps "part of her nefarious plan."

And so on! Go ahead, read for yourself if you want. There's just a higher than average manda reference density in ash's posts than I would have expected. Now you might think, wouldn't ash want to *not* talk about his scumpartners? Well that's a bag of WIFOM again...ash was all about purloined letters this game lol. But something definitely seems odd about it.

So I want to keep voting manda.

PPE: Apparently e disagrees.

[2.71828.....]

You have an interesting point there about Ash/manda interactions.  I was reading just for Manda, and didn't really notice all of the attention Ash gave her.

I just reread mcmc in KC-Goons-Masquerade, and he was on the bottom of the post count there as scum.  mcmc is moving up my scum ladder in terms of scumminess, but I still think that Voltaire is scum. 

Right now I am leaning voltaire/mcmc partners.  I think teproc has done a few things that make me think he is towny plus the negative results from walrus/jimmmm.  I think we actually have a great shot at getting a correct lynch, getting a good roleblock, and then winning with 4 members of town left.

I do not think voting manda will do that for us.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

Ok though, after all that though, here's another interesting point:

Volt has had two votes on him, e's and mcmc's, since Dec 30. That is more than enough time for scum to arrange a double quickhammer forced win, especially if they have daychat, which seems to be the prevailing hypothesis.

So assuming there are still two scum, that would mean that there is not two scum among Teproc, manda, and myself. Therefore there is at least one scum among e, Voltaire, and mcmc.

This involves some assumptions but I don't think they're terrible. I guess I would prefer the mcmc lynch of the three. For one, he was much more reckless about voting for Volt today, while Volt has been more aware of the endgame implications...of course, scum might be more mindful of that as well. Unvote for now.

Bah. Although now that I think about it, quickhammering in such a way would practically be an admission of scumminess, which means I would basically have a 50/50 chance of blocking them at night and determining the game. Unless they have a Strongman, or whatever. So maybe this point is not as valid as I thought.

[2.71828.....]

Volt has had two votes on him, e's and mcmc's, since Dec 30. That is more than enough time for scum to arrange a double quickhammer forced win, especially if they have daychat, which seems to be the prevailing hypothesis.

This is an interesting point.  However, that does assume daychat (a reasonable assumption, though not necessarily true)