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[Robz888]

I might support the mcmc lynch more after we hear from him, I just hate the idea of letting Teproc and Voltaire--who are very scummy--get away with this because mcmc is on vacation.

That said, there is a scum narrative for mcmc and I know I have a blind spot about him and it's better to lynch him than me. But it's best to lynch Voltaire!

[Jimmmmm]

Robz makes me uncomfortable, and has all game. From his jumping all over me for the IC thing, to quickly agreeing with me on the Jorbles wagon, to pushing the Morgrim lynch and calling me scummy for arguing against it, to staunchly agreeing with ash prior to Walrus' claim, and now declaring Teproc as scum for little more than PoE. As if we can PoE at this stage.

Well, we can POE at this stage. Pretty well, really. Scum is among the non-claimants (unless it's you but that's not likely enough for me to worry about it today). So myself (not lynching myself), Robz, Teproc, manda, mcmc.

Obviously we can PoE to some extent (making a couple of assumptions). e is extremely close to an IC for me. Walrus is very probably Town. I think I'm objectively in the same boat as Walrus, leaving us with 5 potential lynches.

What I'm saying is you can't catch scum by PoE out of those five. Tell me why someone is scum, don't tell me why three people are VTs.

[Jimmmmm]

Robz, I still haven't seen you give a good reason why either Teproc or Voltaire are scum. PoE won't work for me - I think manda is more likely Town, but I certainly won't eliminate you or mcmc. I disagree with Teproc's saying Walrus is likely scum, but you calling him scummy for that is a bit rich, as he pointed out. The only non-PoE reason you've given on Volt is meta-related and I don't find it all that compelling. Basically if we're treating me, e and Walrus as semi-ICs and you're Town, then you have more information than I do, and you need to give me more to work with.

[Robz888]

Robz, I still haven't seen you give a good reason why either Teproc or Voltaire are scum. PoE won't work for me - I think manda is more likely Town, but I certainly won't eliminate you or mcmc. I disagree with Teproc's saying Walrus is likely scum, but you calling him scummy for that is a bit rich, as he pointed out. The only non-PoE reason you've given on Volt is meta-related and I don't find it all that compelling. Basically if we're treating me, e and Walrus as semi-ICs and you're Town, then you have more information than I do, and you need to give me more to work with.

Do you think I'm wrong, or do you think I'm scum? I can understand the former more than the latter.

[Jimmmmm]

Do you think I'm wrong, or do you think I'm scum? I can understand the former more than the latter.

I think there's a very good chance that you're scum, but if you're Town I want to give you a chance to convince me.

[Robz888]

Okay, yes, well I should be more able to convince you than I am town than convince you that Voltaire is scum, because I am more certain I am town (100%) than I am that Voltaire is scum. And I have been making the case that I am town.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, yes, well I should be more able to convince you than I am town than convince you that Voltaire is scum, because I am more certain I am town (100%) than I am that Voltaire is scum. And I have been making the case that I am town.

Sorry, I meant if you're Town I want to give you a chance to convince me that Volt and Teproc are likely scum. Especially if they are. If you can find a way to convince me you're Town then good for you, but I'm more interesting in finding scum than Town.

[Robz888]

Here's everything I've said on the subject of me being town and Voltaire being scum, in order:

Vote: Voltaire This is scum Voltaire. Teproc is also scum...

Do you have, like, reasons?

Yep. Well, POE, and I don't find manda and mcmc all that scummy, and you are more muted and less of a leader as scum, as you have been all this game.

I'm not super confident on that. I'm more confident that Teproc and Voltaire ARE scum, and I really don't think manda is.

Mcmc was really into this game to start with, and then like started lurking... uh, which actually might fit what scum mcmc might do, perhaps he was warned to be more lurky after all the initial suspicion.

But we can't do much with mcmc right now with him gone.

Voltaire, you are resorting to my scum tactic, you are trying to discredit me! See, he knows I will flip town and that will be bad for him. I have him so, so caught.

Sorry Robz, but I have to say I also find your behavior over the past couple pages to be unsettling. Voltaire is a possibility, sure. Both you and he are definitively within the POE crosshairs so far as I'm concerned. But if I had to choose between you and him right now, I would lynch you. Teproc has got the two night results working for him, so that's a reason not to lynch him today. Of course Robz has a failed roleblock from N1, which must be considered, but that was a long time ago and there were more scum alive then...

I like the mcmc lynch better right now though. Especially considering that I get the feeling Robz is trying to steer away from that, to defend mcmc and find some other lynch prospect...it could be an informative lynch in that regard. I could imagine a Robz/mcmc team rounding out the scum.

But then I still think it's possible Robz is town--for example, he pushed pretty hard D2 to lynch ash after my counterclaim. I'm not sure about the "tunneling" thing--it seems to me like he's sort of been hopping his vote around a lot? That seems kind of like the opposite of tunneling. But maybe my perception is off on that. He seems a little more...exuberant?...than I was expecting this game.

So I'm OK with a Robz wagon but it's not my favorite.

Walrus: Everything you just said about me correct, and if you had played more games with me, you would know this makes me town. I'm definitely all over the place, and I'm definitely exuberant. It's because I'm town and I think we're going to win and this is the fun part of the game for me (when I'm scum, the whole game is the fun part of the game).

I would point you to Day 3 (I think it's 3) of Wibbly Wobbly Mafia, which was Mafia XXIX. I certainly went a tad crazy and actually zeroed in on the town Vig to begin with, outing him. But after that I had all the puzzle pieces put together, we lynched based on my recommendations, and won (and I got my first town MVP!). This game is that game. And Voltaire was scum then and I caught him.

I'm not as sure this time, mostly because I have a lot of new meta info on Voltaire since that game, that was actually made it harder for me to read him. But intuitively, this game feels to me like that game. I mean, it shoudl and would persuade you that I'm town, if you had been in that game. Unfortunately, no one here was, except Voltaire.

I might support the mcmc lynch more after we hear from him, I just hate the idea of letting Teproc and Voltaire--who are very scummy--get away with this because mcmc is on vacation.

That said, there is a scum narrative for mcmc and I know I have a blind spot about him and it's better to lynch him than me. But it's best to lynch Voltaire!

[Robz888]

Okay, yes, well I should be more able to convince you than I am town than convince you that Voltaire is scum, because I am more certain I am town (100%) than I am that Voltaire is scum. And I have been making the case that I am town.

Sorry, I meant if you're Town I want to give you a chance to convince me that Volt and Teproc are likely scum. Especially if they are. If you can find a way to convince me you're Town then good for you, but I'm more interesting in finding scum than Town.

Well, but it's more important to convince you that I am town, because then you'll be more likely to defer to my case. I can make a case on anybody, you have to be able to believe me...

[Voltaire]

I would point you to Day 3 (I think it's 3) of Wibbly Wobbly Mafia, which was Mafia XXIX. I certainly went a tad crazy and actually zeroed in on the town Vig to begin with, outing him. But after that I had all the puzzle pieces put together, we lynched based on my recommendations, and won (and I got my first town MVP!). This game is that game. And Voltaire was scum then and I caught him.

It's worth pointing out that that was the only time I have ever been scum, post-return. My scum meta is a sample size of one. It was a decent performance, up until the point where you caught me as you describe. If you're town, I need you to see how relying on this mini-meta argument is terrible.

I'm certainly not as confident as Robz claims to be about the entire scum team. Robz/mcmc works. As does mcmc/Teproc or Teproc/Robz or even something like manda/mcmc. Lots of options. But lynching Robz or mcmc today has me feeling the most good.

[Robz888]

I'm not that confident. I got a little excited and wanted to see how you reacted--cool as a cucumber, don't know what I expected.

[Robz888]

But as long as our friends with PRs recognize that I am not scum, we're in pretty good shape.

[Jimmmmm]

But as long as our friends with PRs recognize that I am not scum, we're in pretty good shape.

You realise that unless Walrus successfully Roleblocks the right scum we're only 1 mislynch away from mylo right?

[Robz888]

But as long as our friends with PRs recognize that I am not scum, we're in pretty good shape.

You realise that unless Walrus successfully Roleblocks the right scum we're only 1 mislynch away from mylo right?

I realize exactly what the situation is, obviously. It's not that grim.

[Teproc]

So this is interesting. I have two problems with your "case" on Voltaire Robz :
1) It seems to me that it's mostly based on gut feeling. Your meta argument is based on one game, which is not much. Not that there's anything bad with gut feeling actually, it's just that it doesn't do much to convince me of anything other than "Robz is convinced Voltaire is scum".
2) Well, you're including me in it, and that's wrong.

I don't have time now, but I'll reread Voltaire later today.

[Teproc]

Well actually I won't do it today, I'll do it when Dynasty Warriors goes into night 1.

[Robz888]

It IS sort of based on feeling, which is why knowing you can trust me (if you are town) is so important.

[2.71828.....]

It is slow right now, but I am fine with that. I put my reads out, and people can look them over. I feel like there is not much to do until mcmc gets back.

[Jimmmmm]

Okay, I'm going to cut this post down to things I see as important and comment on them.

Well, POE, and I don't find manda and mcmc all that scummy, and you are more muted and less of a leader as scum, as you have been all this game.

So two reasons: PoE based on manda and mcmc not being scummy, and Voltaire's meta.

I'm not super confident on that. I'm more confident that Teproc and Voltaire ARE scum, and I really don't think manda is.

Uh... what? You're not confident that mcmc is Town, you're confident that Teproc and Voltaire are scum. Based on mcmc being Town. This is circular logic.

Voltaire, you are resorting to my scum tactic, you are trying to discredit me! See, he knows I will flip town and that will be bad for him. I have him so, so caught.

No you don't.

Walrus: Everything you just said about me correct, and if you had played more games with me, you would know this makes me town. I'm definitely all over the place, and I'm definitely exuberant.

Are we supposed to believe that scum Robz doesn't know what makes Town Robz Town, or that he's unable to replicate it?

I would point you to Day 3 (I think it's 3) of Wibbly Wobbly Mafia, which was Mafia XXIX. I certainly went a tad crazy and actually zeroed in on the town Vig to begin with, outing him. But after that I had all the puzzle pieces put together, we lynched based on my recommendations, and won (and I got my first town MVP!). This game is that game. And Voltaire was scum then and I caught him.

I'm not as sure this time, mostly because I have a lot of new meta info on Voltaire since that game, that was actually made it harder for me to read him. But intuitively, this game feels to me like that game. I mean, it shoudl and would persuade you that I'm town, if you had been in that game. Unfortunately, no one here was, except Voltaire.

We're supposed to believe you're Town based on a single Town MVP performance? You're a long way from MVP at the moment if you're Town - you vehemently supported the Morgrim lynch and vehemently opposed the ash lynch. And you're not actually sure about Voltaire, you just expect us to believe you're Town based on a game that conveniently no one else other than Volt was in?

I might support the mcmc lynch more after we hear from him, I just hate the idea of letting Teproc and Voltaire--who are very scummy--get away with this because mcmc is on vacation.

That said, there is a scum narrative for mcmc and I know I have a blind spot about him and it's better to lynch him than me. But it's best to lynch Voltaire!

You still haven't given any good reasons why Teproc and Voltaire are scummy or why it's best to lynch Voltaire. Circular, inconsistent PoE and a couple of vague meta reasons. What are we supposed to think, that scum Robz is better than this?

[Robz888]

Okay, okay, I got ahead of myself, I'm sorry. I pounced, and wanted to see how my suspects would react to the pounce if I can glean anything.

It really IS kind of based on a feeling, and I can't explain it beyond what I've said.

Also, this is hard because mcmc IS a big suspect and he's not around.

Also... jeez, what else do you want from me man?

[Robz888]

And bringing up Morgrim and ash stuff is so inconsequential at this point. It got us here, and here is fine. Honestly you sound like you're scum but I know that's very likely not the case.

[manda2014]

I know I said earlier that I was pretty convinced Robz was town, but that read is getting less solid. A conviction based on a gut feeling is fine, but just begging people to trust you based on your insistence that you're town is a bit weak, especially when your support for that claim is reference to your own meta.... as I've said before, a smart player knows their own meta and can play to it. Sure, meta-analysis is helpful for subtle analysis but referencing your OWN meta is not a strong argument. I'm not convinced Robz is scum, but I'm also really starting to question my town read.

The catch here, of course, is that this argument may be TOO weak for a scum player on top of his game.

[Voltaire]

The catch here, of course, is that this argument may be TOO weak for a scum player on top of his game.

That's the classic catch.

So what do we do now? This game has really slowed down. mcmc doesn't get back until 12/23, right? That's not for four days. I'll be holiday semi-V/LA, as I assume most of us will be. And somehow there's over a week until deadline!

[2.71828.....]

I mean, if we want to get a lynch in before mcmc gets back we can push one through.  I just don't really want to do that right now.

I mean, I am leaning toward a robz or voltaire vote, but I really want to hear what mcmc has to say.  I think the biggest thing that everyone can do is put all their reads out on the table for everyone to read.  We will have to piecemeal everything together because everyone will be a little v/la the rest of the day probably due to Christmas, but we will just have to do what we can.

for reference:
I think Jimmmmm and Walrus are what they claim.  I did not expand on that but I can do so once dynasty warriors goes into night if people want me to.
Teproc
Voltaire
manda
mcmc
Robz

[yuma]

Vote Count 3.5

mcmc (1): Walrus
Voltaire (1): Robz
Robz (2): Jimmmmm, Voltaire

Not Voting (4): Teproc, manda, mcmcsalot, 2.7

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day3 will end December 27 at 8:00 pm forum time. (10 days + 2 for Christmas)