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Author Topic: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Game Over, Mafia Wins!)  (Read 168838 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1375 on: December 16, 2013, 04:18:35 pm »

D1:
Early back-and-forth with Robz (example), but lands on town!Robz.  Super wary of scum fake-claiming.  Votes Ashersky pretty early on.  Goes V/LA most of D1 and comes back in time for the Morgrim claim.  Ends up hammering Morgrim.

D2:
Comes out against Jimmmmm to start D2.  Then after some discussion with Jimmmm unvotes.  Then a ridiculous POE list that has Ashersky crossed off.  Jumps to Walrus after mcmc lays out a case against walrus. A bunch of stuff that didn't draw my attention.  Then Voltaire comes and lays out a very rational case as to why we should lynch Jimmmmmm.  He then votes Jimmmmmm.  After the Walrus claim goes to Ashersky easily enough.

D3:
Has a nice little summary post.  Been active and useful.

Summary:  Ever so slight scum read.  Not by much, but his D2 seems a little scummy after the NK.  Not a confident scum read at all.  I find it hard to get a good read on him here.

PPE: 4
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #1376 on: December 16, 2013, 04:21:38 pm »

I was going to quote all of Walrus' interactions with ash, but there are just too many of them. I didn't remember how much they fought in this game. ash was very convinced that Walrus was scum in day 1, even during the Morgrim wagon, and they seemed pretty furstrated with each other with their exchanges over Walrus' posting style. Then there was the whole thing with the joke ash made that Walrus misunderstood... yeah, ok, if they're a scumteam they are just brilliant.

Hmmm, this isn't what I wanted to find. So we do have 5 PRs ? It's true that ash mentioned picking 0 or 3 powers, and he has a history of being transparent about these things (the Grimm RMM). I'll reread ash to see if there's something obvious in his interactions.

PPE : 2 unread.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1377 on: December 16, 2013, 04:22:33 pm »

Ever so slight scum read.  Not by much, but his D2 seems a little scummy after the NK. 

My D2 seems scummy after Jorbles died? I do not follow.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1378 on: December 16, 2013, 04:23:03 pm »

Sorry.  That was Voltaire.  Forgot to mention it

D1:
Early back-and-forth with Robz (example), but lands on town!Robz.  Super wary of scum fake-claiming.  Votes Ashersky pretty early on.  Goes V/LA most of D1 and comes back in time for the Morgrim claim.  Ends up hammering Morgrim.

D2:
Comes out against Jimmmmm to start D2.  Then after some discussion with Jimmmm unvotes.  Then a ridiculous POE list that has Ashersky crossed off.  Jumps to Walrus after mcmc lays out a case against walrus. A bunch of stuff that didn't draw my attention.  Then Voltaire comes and lays out a very rational case as to why we should lynch Jimmmmmm.  He then votes Jimmmmmm.  After the Walrus claim goes to Ashersky easily enough.

D3:
Has a nice little summary post.  Been active and useful.

Summary:  Ever so slight scum read.  Not by much, but his D2 seems a little scummy after the NK.  Not a confident scum read at all.  I find it hard to get a good read on him here.

PPE: 4
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1379 on: December 16, 2013, 04:25:33 pm »

Ever so slight scum read.  Not by much, but his D2 seems a little scummy after the NK. 

My D2 seems scummy after Jorbles died? I do not follow.
Why does the Jorbles death have anything to do with your D2?  Am I missing something you said about Jorbles?
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1380 on: December 16, 2013, 04:27:47 pm »

Ever so slight scum read.  Not by much, but his D2 seems a little scummy after the NK. 

My D2 seems scummy after Jorbles died? I do not follow.
Why does the Jorbles death have anything to do with your D2?  Am I missing something you said about Jorbles?

You say that my D2 seems a little scummy after the NK. I assume you're referring to the N1 kill of Jorbles if you think my D2 is scummy? Or are you talking about faust dying last night? Either way, I don't get what you're saying.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1381 on: December 16, 2013, 04:31:14 pm »

Ever so slight scum read.  Not by much, but his D2 seems a little scummy after the NK. 

My D2 seems scummy after Jorbles died? I do not follow.
Why does the Jorbles death have anything to do with your D2?  Am I missing something you said about Jorbles?

You say that my D2 seems a little scummy after the NK. I assume you're referring to the N1 kill of Jorbles if you think my D2 is scummy? Or are you talking about faust dying last night? Either way, I don't get what you're saying.
I am not sure what I meant there either.  I don't think I meant to add "after the NK" at all.  It has nothing to do with you being scummy.  A mistake on my part for typing it.  I really don't even remember typing it to begin with
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1382 on: December 16, 2013, 04:33:25 pm »

I don't have time to do my other rereads right now.  I will get to them later tonight or tomorrow.

2 down, 3 to go.

1 slight scum read in the first two, if I get one slight scum read in the next two the puzzle is solved and we have caught our scum!   (not really)
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day1)
« Reply #1383 on: December 16, 2013, 05:35:37 pm »

ash reread for interactions with people still in the game (ie I'll ignore stuff like the Morgrim wagon and edit the dead people out when giving his reads).

Day 1

#187 : "Misunderstands" the setup. Not super relevant right now but I might bookmark this post if anyone ever wants to give a stupid day 1 pass to someone for that kind of thing.
#189: Votes Jimmmm for "hiding in plain sight". This goes on for a few more posts between ash and Jimmmmm.
#193 : Town read on Robz for not reading the setup.
#267 : Says he'd go Daychat/Recruit/JOAT is he went for three powers.
#269 : Finds a manda post scummy.
#270: Calls Robz's rage vote on Voltaire fake.
#351 : Says I'm sheepy and call mcmc scum for activity.
#427 : Finds 2.7 scummy for joking about the scumminess of his day 1 passes after being called out on it. Votes for him in #485 and there's a few other posts pushing for a 2.7 lynch.
#534 Finds Robz scummy for "town cred grabbing" when he unvotes Jorbles after the Bodyguard claim
#547 Starts going after Walrus. Fights with him for a few pages, not going to link to all that. He goes after him pretty hard and is very certain that Walrus is scum
#658 : Post count analysis. Manda in "Lurkers", Walrus, mcmc and myself in "Acti-Lurkers", the rest in "Contributers"
#730 Popsquiz :
Lynch ! Walrus
Would lynch : mcmc, manda
Won't lynch : Robz, Voltaire, Teproc, Jimmmmm, 2.7
#807 Finds Robz scummy for not immediately asking for vigs not to shoot d1. Possibly joking ?

Day 2

#820 : Points out Jimmmm's ambivalent attitude toward the Morgrim lynch.
#840: The Walrus joke post.
#861: Wagon analysis. Thinks 2 are on, 1 is off. This lead to Jimmmmm suspecting him because he once suggested going all on/off in a scum QT, and ash saying that would be too obvious
#866: Post count analysis. Walrus is too low and manda "needs to step it up".
#876: Appears to think scum didn't recruit
#885 : Calls a Jimmmmm/manda/Walrus scum team "very possible"
#886 : In response to Jimmmmm asking madna to post more : "prodding your partner to post ?"
#888 : Says Jimmmmm is more likely to be town
#889 : But finds his vote on manda scummy for being too "safe".
#894 : Reiterates that he thinks Jimmmmm is town, clearly frustrated. This goes on for a while and eventually ash steps away from the game for a bit.
#1003: Finds my "fight" with Voltaire about POE to be town v town
#1005 : Points out that mcmc forgot "scum v scum" in his analysis of the Jimmmm v ash fight.
#1006: Says e's claim only holds up as long as he protects faust.
#1011: Inclined to believe e's claim because the timing does't make sense for scum.
#1092: Says his fight with Jimmmmm is most likely to be town v town, which is basically just reiterating his town read on Jimmmm.
#1113: Post count analysis.
"Abnormally high for Jimmmm.
Walrus and Manda severely need to post more.
mcmc and Tep seem to be in the actilurker zone."
#1156: Post Jimmmmm claim, looking for Jimmmmm's partners, mentions Walrus, manda and the possibility of an epic bus by Robz.

And that's it. I'll say that ash did a pretty good job at not having obvious interactions with his partners. A Walrus/ash pairing does indeed seem very unlikely. Very little interaction with mcmc, Voltaire, and myself. His interactions with Robz and especially manda are interesting. He accuses them both of being scummy multiple times but never votes for them or really pressures them.

Not sure what to make of the wagon analysis. WIFOM, WIFOM everywhere.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1384 on: December 16, 2013, 05:44:03 pm »

Vote Count 3.3

Teproc (1): Robz
mcmc (2): Voltaire, Walrus

Not Voting (5): Jimmmmm, Teproc, manda, mcmcsalot, 2.7

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day3 will end December 27 at 8:00 pm forum time. (10 days + 2 for Christmas)
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1385 on: December 17, 2013, 12:32:52 am »

Catching up on today now, but before I get any further: Not the vig.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1386 on: December 17, 2013, 02:14:25 am »

Alright so reads:

Robz & Voltaire: despite somewhat of a disagreement-that-wasn't-actually-a-disagreement, both are helpful & useful. Town, I think

Walrus & Jimmm: I'm inclined to believe both claims. A double-fakeclaim gambit feels like too much. Town.

Teproc: long, useful post referencing all of ash's interactions, but I can easily see that as an attempt to gain town cred, especially because that review didn't reveal anything solid. Slight scum read

2.7: I have to agree with Voltaire that fakeclaiming BG would be way too risky for scum at that point, so the claim is likely true. Pretty much town.

mcmc: really unsure. Seems to have been posting about like I have which, I admit, is pretty useless to town but aaaalso makes it difficult to see him as scum. Neutral read, unfortunately.


An exploratory question that just occurred to me: If you were someone else looking at your behavior in this game, what about it would make you-as-someone-else vote for actual-you? For example, I have been mostly absent, which could easily be scum trying to fly under the radar.

Not hypothesizing any serious results from this but I am quite curious to see what people have to say, and I think it has the potential to provide some interesting insight.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1387 on: December 17, 2013, 02:33:56 am »

Alright so reads:

Robz & Voltaire: despite somewhat of a disagreement-that-wasn't-actually-a-disagreement, both are helpful & useful. Town, I think

Okay, yeah, I think we are both being helpful and useful. This shouldn't really make either of us remotely town in anyone's eyes. Can you give me a single good basis on which to acquit Voltaire? I can't think of one.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1388 on: December 17, 2013, 02:34:28 am »

At this point, I think the remaining scum are likely Teproc and Voltaire, possibly mcmc, distantly possibly manda.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1389 on: December 17, 2013, 04:12:32 am »

I made it home! Pretty exhausted, so not looking to put in a whole heap of work, but I'll say a few things.

My reasons for investigating Teproc were similar to those Walrus gave for Roleblocking him. I had expressed the most suspicion of mcmc, so I figured that if mcmc was a Goon I would likely be killed and couldn't rely on e to protect me. I'm also pretty sure that Robz isn't a Goon - I don't see him coming that hard out in support of ash against me and risking me investigating him.

Choosing Teproc was based on a hunch. I thought about what ash was doing late in the Day when it was obvious he was going to be lynched, and realised he was probably trying (successfully) to draw me into a fight and spark theories about it being staged. Based on #1283, and especially with the possibility of Daychat, I thought Teproc may have been trying to help him with that.

My two biggest scumreads remain mcmc and Robz. mcmc feels off, and perhaps there's bias here because they were voting for me both times, but I don't like his sheeping of Robz, regardless of Robz' alignment. Hmm, if the scumteam is ash/Robz/mcmc then they have deliberately planned to be seen to be working together, something we probably wouldn't expect scum to do.

Robz makes me uncomfortable, and has all game. From his jumping all over me for the IC thing, to quickly agreeing with me on the Jorbles wagon, to pushing the Morgrim lynch and calling me scummy for arguing against it, to staunchly agreeing with ash prior to Walrus' claim, and now declaring Teproc as scum for little more than PoE. As if we can PoE at this stage.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1390 on: December 17, 2013, 04:16:50 am »

Hmm, if the scumteam is ash/Robz/mcmc then they have deliberately planned to be seen to be working together, something we probably wouldn't expect scum to do.

That would be a pretty epic team.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1391 on: December 17, 2013, 09:28:19 am »

Manda
D1
V/LA alot.  So not very many posts.  But when she did post, it actually had some content and was pretty well thought out. (see here, here, here, and here) Then we get to her Jorbles vote.  Seemed very scummy to me to such an extent that I left Jorbles to vote her.  What I found scummy was the fact that she was content to vote Jorbles without further discussion just to get a lynch in.
D2
Again, V/LA for most of the day due to finals.  Just because I never studied in school doesn't mean studying is a bad thing.  Perfectly understandable.  The interesting thing that I find here is that she did not put a vote down D2.  She got some reads, did some digging, but did not vote.  I think, as scum, she would have been in an easy spot to vote either walrus or Jimmmmm.  It was relatively early in the day, she seemed like she had slightly scummy reads on both of them (correct me if I am wrong) but was much more hesitant than she was with her D1 Jorbles vote.  Comes back barely in time to post before the lynch, but left to watch the Hobbit (another admirable cause) and ended up not voting.
D3
Comes out, apologizes for missing so much, then comes out with a reads list.

Summary:  Lean town.  She had limited access D1, and put down a scummy (at least scummy to me) vote.  She had limited access D2 and did not vote when she had the opportunity early in the day.  While that is not much to go on, and I expect some more good reads like the post she recently gave, I do lean town here
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1392 on: December 17, 2013, 10:23:27 am »

mcmc
D1
Doesnt say too much about PRs except that it all depends on who he drew as a teammate.  But in general he leaned toward fewer PRs.  He has a lot of votes early, and I grow suspicious of him, he calls me out for being suspicious of him, and votes me.  Then there is a lot of back and forth, etc, etc.  mcmc is one of the most vocal people calling for my lynch.  After my claim he says this:
2.7 makes a reasonably timed claim because of his role, he expecting to die instead of Faust anyway. So claiming with time left to get a lynch in is smart.
However I am expecting scum to now not target Faust leaving 2.7 and Faust alive.
This means Faust 2.7 [FTFY] could be lying scum or scum is wifoming us. So when thought out the claim is extremely safe for scum to make.
He predicts the VT kill that night.  How honest is scum about what they will do that night?  I find this really interesting.  No one has commented on this particular point (that I could find).  We get distracted with walrus/ashersky then jimmmm/ashersky and we never really look at mcmc all of D2.  He later continues (D1) to defend reasons as to why my claim would be good for scum to make.  And he also has a D1 popsquiz that could very well turn out to be 100% wrong.
D2
Comes out against Walrus a bit.  Affirms his scum read on walrus by voting him.  Ashersky calls him out on that post because he didn't include a scum/scum narrative for jimmmm/ash, to which walrus responds basically saying he felt that was not really going to be the case given the way the argument went.  Goes away from Walrus to Jimmmmm sheeping robz a just a little.  Then immediately (no one posts in between) as if anticipating some pushback for leaving Walrus, he maintains that he thinks Walrus is scum, but is leaving to place his vote on another scum read that is more likely to result in a lynch.  I personally don't think throwing his vote around like that tells anything either way.  He threw his vote around plenty D1.  He then gives a short response to a Walrus vote on him, gives his ordering of how he thinks Jimmmm/Ash align, then has not posted since.

I believe he is v/la? He didn't post in the v/la thread though but I saw somewhere someone said he was on a cruise? Do we know when he gets back? I think not for a few more days at least.

summary: I think he is scum.  His vote-jumping is a null-tell.  Now, the two things that make me lean town are his prediction of the NK (not specifically but you know what I mean) and Ash calling him out for not having the scum/scum narrative.  Still, him calling the NK could just be good foresight from town, or scum saying what he will probably do.  In the QT Ash and him could have planned on Ash jumping all over something early to avoid getting a serious look at that prediction, but that is a stretch.  Ash calling him out for not including scum/scum could just be something to try and give Ash easy town points.  So there are scum narratives for both of those things, but right now I lean town
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1393 on: December 17, 2013, 10:24:02 am »

mcmc
D1
Doesnt say too much about PRs except that it all depends on who he drew as a teammate.  But in general he leaned toward fewer PRs.  He has a lot of votes early, and I grow suspicious of him, he calls me out for being suspicious of him, and votes me.  Then there is a lot of back and forth, etc, etc.  mcmc is one of the most vocal people calling for my lynch.  After my claim he says this:
2.7 makes a reasonably timed claim because of his role, he expecting to die instead of Faust anyway. So claiming with time left to get a lynch in is smart.
However I am expecting scum to now not target Faust leaving 2.7 and Faust alive.
This means Faust 2.7 [FTFY] could be lying scum or scum is wifoming us. So when thought out the claim is extremely safe for scum to make.
He predicts the VT kill that night.  How honest is scum about what they will do that night?  I find this really interesting.  No one has commented on this particular point (that I could find).  We get distracted with walrus/ashersky then jimmmm/ashersky and we never really look at mcmc all of D2.  He later continues (D1) to defend reasons as to why my claim would be good for scum to make.  And he also has a D1 popsquiz that could very well turn out to be 100% wrong.
D2
Comes out against Walrus a bit.  Affirms his scum read on walrus by voting him.  Ashersky calls him out on that post because he didn't include a scum/scum narrative for jimmmm/ash, to which walrus responds basically saying he felt that was not really going to be the case given the way the argument went.  Goes away from Walrus to Jimmmmm sheeping robz a just a little.  Then immediately (no one posts in between) as if anticipating some pushback for leaving Walrus, he maintains that he thinks Walrus is scum, but is leaving to place his vote on another scum read that is more likely to result in a lynch.  I personally don't think throwing his vote around like that tells anything either way.  He threw his vote around plenty D1.  He then gives a short response to a Walrus vote on him, gives his ordering of how he thinks Jimmmm/Ash align, then has not posted since.

I believe he is v/la? He didn't post in the v/la thread though but I saw somewhere someone said he was on a cruise? Do we know when he gets back? I think not for a few more days at least.

summary: I think he is scumTOWN.  His vote-jumping is a null-tell.  Now, the two things that make me lean town are his prediction of the NK (not specifically but you know what I mean) and Ash calling him out for not having the scum/scum narrative.  Still, him calling the NK could just be good foresight from town, or scum saying what he will probably do.  In the QT Ash and him could have planned on Ash jumping all over something early to avoid getting a serious look at that prediction, but that is a stretch.  Ash calling him out for not including scum/scum could just be something to try and give Ash easy town points.  So there are scum narratives for both of those things, but right now I lean town
sorry I was thinking town and typed scum
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1394 on: December 17, 2013, 11:41:59 am »

nevermind.  I don't know how I missed it.  mcmc did post v/la through the 23rd.
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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1395 on: December 17, 2013, 03:20:13 pm »

Robz makes me uncomfortable, and has all game. From his jumping all over me for the IC thing, to quickly agreeing with me on the Jorbles wagon, to pushing the Morgrim lynch and calling me scummy for arguing against it, to staunchly agreeing with ash prior to Walrus' claim, and now declaring Teproc as scum for little more than PoE. As if we can PoE at this stage.

Well, we can POE at this stage. Pretty well, really. Scum is among the non-claimants (unless it's you but that's not likely enough for me to worry about it today). So myself (not lynching myself), Robz, Teproc, manda, mcmc.

I think mcmc is the scummiest, followed by Robz, Teproc, manda. Robz has jumped all over the place today but I do still put weight in the D1 stuff. Teproc has kept the lynch pool open somewhat but he has two clearing-ish results on him, so I don't think he's a good lynch today. manda also has D1 stuff and doesn't look like I'd expect new scum to look.

I feel pretty good about two of mcmc/Robz/Teproc being scum, and we have the time/PRs to sort it out.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1396 on: December 17, 2013, 04:07:54 pm »

Vote: Voltaire This is scum Voltaire. Teproc is also scum...
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1397 on: December 17, 2013, 04:26:46 pm »

Vote: Voltaire This is scum Voltaire. Teproc is also scum...

Do you have, like, reasons?
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1398 on: December 17, 2013, 04:28:52 pm »

Vote: Voltaire This is scum Voltaire. Teproc is also scum...

Do you have, like, reasons?

Yep. Well, POE, and I don't find manda and mcmc all that scummy, and you are more muted and less of a leader as scum, as you have been all this game.
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2.71828.....

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Re: Mafia XXXV: Mafia and the Chocolate Factory (Day3)
« Reply #1399 on: December 17, 2013, 04:31:55 pm »

I played dominion instead of doing reads most of today. I don't feel all that rushed right now in this game since mcmc won't be back for a while. I still have my robz reread to do, and will be getting to that next.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.
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