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[manda2014]

Thanks, Walrus. Well, it has to be ash, then.

you seem like you really believed walrus here. Explain to me why a confirmed IC is so much better than someone who is virtually an IC by merit of his claim? The only IC experience I have had was Voltaire in toy story, and narrowing the lynch pool did not help us lynch anyone correctly there. I just don't see IC being as powerful as you make it out to be. Please illuminate me, as I apparently made an egregious error.

Because it's still possible he could be fakeclaiming? 1) Better for town to have someone whose reads they can absolutely trust to be, if not necessarily accurate, not deliberately misleading, and 2) Even if narrowing the lynch pool doesn't always result in success, it still, mathematically, gets us closer to a correct lynch.

[Jimmmmm]

Yeah, Walrus is certainly not an IC, although at this stage I'm very against lynching him. If he turns out to be scum I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be quite surprised.

[Robz888]

So I've been thinking a little bit more about the setup, and we need to consider a couple things.

We know we have an IC (faust) and a Tracker (Morgrim). We know we very likely have a Goon Cop (Jimm). I very much believe we have a Roleblocker (Walrus), or else Walrus counterclaimed only to get his scum buddy immediately killed. If 2.7's claim is true and he is indeed a Bodyguard, we actually have the maximum amount of PRs. We start with 2 automatically, and and we can get a maximum 3 more if scum picked their maximum number of PRs. This means that if any living person is a Vigilante, he or she should immediately claim. This would effectively be a counter claim. It would be impossible for this claim, and Walrus, and Jimm, and 2.7 to all be true.

I assume there is no Vigilante, because you should have already known this, and you should have probably shot 2.7 based on this information (thus confirming your own identity since there would be two kills). I am not the Vigilante--if you are (whoever you are) you screwed up, but tell us!

[Robz888]

Yeah, Walrus is certainly not an IC, although at this stage I'm very against lynching him. If he turns out to be scum I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be quite surprised.

The reason it would surprise me is that his counterclaim got ash lynched, when you would have been lynched instead. That's truly bizarre play from a partner.

[Jimmmmm]

Yeah, Walrus is certainly not an IC, although at this stage I'm very against lynching him. If he turns out to be scum I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be quite surprised.

The reason it would surprise me is that his counterclaim got ash lynched, when you would have been lynched instead. That's truly bizarre play from a partner.

My thoughts exactly. Of course, that could be exactly what we're supposed to think.

What if I was scum as well?

[Robz888]

So back to PRs.

Let's say I believe Jimm and Walrus. Should I believe 2.7? This means that scum took ALL the available PRs they could.

I've been thinking that it makes much, much more sense to take Daychat if you are also going to recruit the Traitor (which I increasingly think is a very smart thing to do). Cooking up day schemes is much more worthwhile if you actually have three people. I could see scum just taking both these and walking away, thus generating 4 of our 5 town PR claims (2.7 would be suspect here).

However, scum could very well spring for the Role Cop (which will be useful for investigating all those town PRs they gave us!), or maybe even the JOAT. In which case, 2.7's claim would be true and all remaining scum are among Voltaire, Teproc, mcmc, manda, and myself.

What do you all think?

[Robz888]

Yeah, Walrus is certainly not an IC, although at this stage I'm very against lynching him. If he turns out to be scum I wouldn't be shocked, but I would be quite surprised.

The reason it would surprise me is that his counterclaim got ash lynched, when you would have been lynched instead. That's truly bizarre play from a partner.

My thoughts exactly. Of course, that could be exactly what we're supposed to think.

What if I was scum as well?

I mean, I'm the person that said your fight seemed more likely to be scum/scum than town/town. I don't think it's more likely scum/scum than scum/town.

I mean... if you had daychat, I could sort of see ash saying, "throw me under! get max towncred!" But under this circumstance, both of you came out with risky fakeclaims that could have been counterclaimed. Your Goon Cop claim is insanely risky in this scenario, and if it pays off... you get your partner lynched?

The very plausible explanation is simply that you are town who caught scum, that scum tried to do what he could--fake claim and either survive another day or out a town PR, achieving the latter.

[Robz888]

Again, I am asking Voltaire, mcmcsalot, Teproc, and manda to all claim Vigilante/Not Vigilante. Unfortunately, we will have to wait a week for mcmc's answer.

[Jimmmmm]

Just about to board. My final thought for now is that e's claim should give him more Towncred than others because it came early. If he knew that there were 2 other Town PRs out there, the chances of being counterclaimed are pretty high.

[Robz888]

Just about to board. My final thought for now is that e's claim should give him more Towncred than others because it came early. If he knew that there were 2 other Town PRs out there, the chances of being counterclaimed are pretty high.

That's true.

[Robz888]

He claimed Bodyguard on Day 1, right?

[Robz888]

I don't actually remember why he did. Were we going to lynch him?

2.7, why did you claim BG?

[Jimmmmm]

He claimed Bodyguard on Day 1, right?

I think so. I can't remember if it was before or after Morgrim's claim. There was suspicion on him, but he certainly wasn't about to be lynched.

[Robz888]

Well Unvote I think. Thanks for reminding me of that, Jimm.

[Teproc]

He claimed at L-2 on day 1, before Morgrim did, IIRC.

I see why you believe Walrus' claim Robz, but I simply don't agree with your premise, which is that Jimmmmm would have been lynched if Walrus hadn't stepped in. Probably because I still don't understand why you (and Voltaire and faust) wanted to lynch him first, that still makes no sense to me. I believe he had 3 votes on him when Walrus stepped in ?

I'm having a hard time believing scum took 3 powers. I mean, maybe they did, but that seems very risky because it makes them super weak to the Goon Cop, who'd have a very high likelihood to exist if they did that. And I'm much more inclined to believe 2.7's and Jimmmm's claims because I have a town reads on them regardless, whereas I think Walrus has legitimately been scummy this game. Maybe I'm just being paranoid.

[Teproc]

Oh, and I'm not the Vigilante.

[2.71828.....]

I don't actually remember why he did. Were we going to lynch him?

2.7, why did you claim BG?

Ok. As much as I would love to fight this case against me, I think it will end in a big waste of time.

1) it is too easy for scum to come out against me now. (I wish Faust had saved his vote longer)
   A) since this is the case, I do not know that any additional people coming against me will gain us any new knowledge.
2) we want to avoid a mislynch.
3) I am a mislynch
4) since I am the bodyguard.

As I said, and especially since I am new, I am curious to see if I would have been able to fend off the lynch without a claim. But that is not in the best interest of town, especially since I think town believe very strongly that I am scum.

I will bodyguard Faust. If we both survive the night it is because scum think they can mislynch me later. I might be super early on this claim, but I have never done this kind of thing before so forgive me and maybe explain when an optimal time for a claim would have been. I mean, given my role, I would probably have died tonight anyway (even without the scummy [i mean jokey reactions-i like to think of my play as more noob town than scummy] play that I have done today), so might as well claim now.

I claimed bodyguard because I wanted to get some serious scum hunting in before D1 ended.  There were about 3 days remaining in D1, and I did not want the case against me to distract from hunting scum.  Now, in hindsight maybe I should have kept fighting and maybe Morgrim would not have claimed, who knows though. 

[2.71828.....]

The fact that faust died and you immediately begun spinning a yarn about why walrus was both more important to protect and also still possibly scum, and you did this immediately, right off the bat--a quintessential scum move to get all your pre-planned facts out in the open ASAP.

Ok.  You are right about this coming off a little scummy.  I did clarify here a bit:

at the end of D2 I thought walrus's claim was true and that scum would NK a roleblocker. Since they did not, a fake claim by walrus is not impossible. I don't quite know what to think about walrus right now since I am still alive. (had I died I would be posting in the spectator QT saying he is town) I just wanted to throw out the fake claim possibility to help stimulate discussion.

I was surprised by the NK.  I thought they would take out the PR that was the biggest threat to them, which would be Walrus in my opinion because he has the potential to block a NK.  So I was immediately mildly suspicious, and threw out a situation where it seems plausible that walrus is scum.  I do not necessarily even believe my case, I just was putting some thoughts down to get a reaction. 

[2.71828.....]

And I am the vigila.......err......bodyguard

[yuma]

Vote Count 3.2

Not Voting (8): Robz, Walrus, Jimmmmm, Teproc, manda, mcmcsalot, 2.7, Voltaire

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.
Day3 will end December 27 at 8:00 pm forum time. (10 days + 2 for Christmas)

[2.71828.....]

At LAX. Little time. Teproc is not a Goon.

Just to mod-confirm because it is important:  If mafia is JOAT or role cop and gets investigated by the goon cop, will the result be "Goon", "Not a Goon" or "No Result"?

[yuma]

- Goon Cop - returns results of Goon, Not Goon or no result regardless of alignment.

A Goon Cop only returns the above three results.

A Goon Cop only returns "Goons" on players that are specifically Goons.

Anyone that is not a Goon (including Vanilla Townies, Town PRs, Mafia PRs or Mafia Traitor) will return the result "Not Goon."

A "no result" is given if the Cop is somehow blocked from using the investigative role during the night.

[2.71828.....]

At LAX. Little time. Teproc is not a Goon.

Ok.  So if we believe Jimmmmm's claim, which I think is a pretty solid claim, then Teproc is either a VT, JOAT, role cop, or traitor.  Since Ash flipped regular goon, it really hurts the goon cop's ability because scum picked so many PRs.  It is entirely conceivable that scum did not choose to NK Jimmmmm because they knew that it was impossible for him to give a result.  (say they picked daytalk, JOAT, and (bulletproof or role cop)).  Picking Bulletproof or role cop is more likely given the fact that it is very possible that they chose 3 PRs.  I think Jimmmmm's result does lower any suspicion on Teproc, but is nothing that I would give a day pass for.

[Teproc]

Another possibility is if mafia picked daychat, JOAT and didn't recruit (the Mafia Traitor would also not return Goon if not recruited). That would mean someone is fakeclaiming, which I do think is very possible. Scum would never pick Bulletproof, I don't really know why it's in the setup to be honest. Rolecop is a possibility though.

Basically Jimmmmm's result on me + Walrus roleblocking me don't prove anything about me, unfortunately. I guss they statistically reduce the likeliness of me being scum, but not enough for that to matter all that much I think.

[Voltaire]

Back from my weekend (mostly) away from the forums. Catching up now. Robz, I don't agree with you!