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[WalrusMcFishSr]

Least to most scummy:

Voltaire
Robz
manda
Teproc
mcmc

[faust]

I have to go for today. Don't lynch yet. We can still sort this out tomorrow. And we need manda and mcmc to weigh in.

[Jimmmmm]

Thought I'd post a top-of-my-head reads list.

2.7 - I mostly believe his claim. Will not lynch at this stage.
Walrus - I mostly believe his claim. Wouldn't 100% rule out him counter-claiming his scumpartner for the Town cred, knowing that ash will not be alive for much longer, but it's super bold and unlikely. Will not lynch at this stage.
Voltaire - Can't remember much he's said, although having a bit of a look back has been quite a supporter of Robz against me. Might lynch.
Teproc - Can't remember anything he's said. Might lynch
manda - Need more input. Might lynch.
Robz - Unsure what to make of him. I was uncomfortable with him along with ash Day 1 for how easily he agreed with me. His "discrediting the IC" thing is kind of weird and a strong stance for what it was. I'm not sure what to make of his staunch disagreement with me. At times I've felt like he feels much more strongly about things than he should given his arguments. Like, I'm posting a lot, so he can't shake the evidence that I'm scum. Would lynch.
mcmcsalot - Reads scummy to me as I've said. While I was having my pre-claim argument with ash, he was someone who stuck out to me as a possible partner. One thing I was looking for is someone who wanted to stay away from the argument, since they wouldn't want to strongly support ash do a mislynch, but also wouldn't want to help me lynch ash. The other person who stood out like this was Walrus, who has now claimed. Afterwards, mcmc followed Robz into voting for me (for the second time this game). Would lynch.

[2.71828.....]

crap.  I actually had to do some work today and I missed all the fun

will respond as quickly as I can get my thoughts down.

[2.71828.....]

The Unclaimed:

Voltaire
Robz
manda
Teproc
mcmcsalot

Everyone, please order these players from least scummy to most scummy.

Robz
Voltaire
Teproc
Manda
mcmc

[2.71828.....]

I was reading through the thread all at once and this was my thought process:

Robz posts to mention how quiet/lurky it has been: "yeah, I have been kind of quiet.  I need to post more"

Jimmmmm claims Goon Cop, and accuses Ash of being scum: "Ok, that is reasonable.  Seems like a really early claim though.  Doesn't feel quite right but lets see what happens."

Ashersky claims right back.  Immediately: "Things are getting interesting now."  *Checks the bottom of the page* "wow there are two more pages of stuff to read.  I missed a lot"

reading....reading....getting more convinced that Jimmmm is scum.  Teproc comes out uncomfortable with both claims, but lands on voting Ash after Voltaire puts forward a great case for why lynching Jimmmm is the best option for the lynch:  "Ok.  I like the idea of lynching Jimmmm and the conclusions that we are drawing from it.  Teproc seems scummy though for voting Ash after a clear case for why the Jimmmmm lynch is better."

Walrus counterclaims: "That is a lot of PRs for one day.  And oh by the way, this makes Teproc look extremely towny for seeing through Ashersky's fakeclaim"

Then all the other talk, but basically I am ready to lynch Ashersky as soon as more people pitch in with thoughts.

what is the current vote count?

[Teproc]

reading....reading....getting more convinced that Jimmmm is scum.  Teproc comes out uncomfortable with both claims, but lands on voting Ash after Voltaire puts forward a great case for why lynching Jimmmm is the best option for the lynch:  "Ok.  I like the idea of lynching Jimmmm and the conclusions that we are drawing from it.  Teproc seems scummy though for voting Ash after a clear case for why the Jimmmmm lynch is better."

Walrus counterclaims: "That is a lot of PRs for one day.  And oh by the way, this makes Teproc look extremely towny for seeing through Ashersky's fakeclaim"

So... as much as I enjoy getting town points, I don't think this makes much sense. The fact that Walrus counterclaimed ash just after I posted shouldn't really change the way you read my post, because I didn't know about Walrus when I wrote it. If you think Voltaire's case for lynching Jimmmmm first was very good with the information we had at that point (I don't), you should evaluate the post with that information in mind. In fact, it's easier for scum to be right all the time than for town, so being right (assuming I am right about ash) isn't particularly towny in my mind.

[ashersky]

Caught up.  Huge respect to the gambit the Jimmmmm/ Walrus scum team is pulling.  They absolutely deserve to win if the whole town falls for it.

Remember, this sets them up perfectly for two more days.  When I flip as the real RB, they can fight each other, ensuring whichever is the weaker gets lynched.  They get a mislynch and two NKs out of this

They must have know the setup was 4 PRs.  They needed to out the final one and ensure they could hardcore bus on D3.  It sets up the invisible 3rd partner (manda?) to sail through multiple days without having to make an impression, leaving them in a good spot in mylo/Lylo situations in the endgame.

Well played, scum.  You are caught out, but will probably succeed, given my terrible track record of being believed as the caught town PR.

[2.71828.....]

Ok.  Ash is correct in that if he is town, it will take us quite some time to lynch our way through scum.  But let's look at the situation

Lynch ash (town), town NK
8 alive 3 scum

lynch Jimmmmm, town NK
6 alive.  2 scum

Lynch Walrus, town NK
4 alive 1 scum

We will have to find the remaining scum in a 3v1 scenario.

Now, if only 1/3 of Jimmmmm, Walrus, Ashersky is scum, then the situation I describe above ends in a scum win.

Lynch Ash (town), town NK
8 alive, 3 scum

Lynch Jimmmm (or Walrus) (town), town NK
6 alive, 3 scum

Scum win

[2.71828.....]

Now you're making my head hurt. Trying to analyze this. These are the claims:

faust  - IC
Morgrim - Tracker
e - Bodyguard
Jimmmmm - Goon Cop
ashersky - Roleblocker
Walrus - Roleblocker

Possible scenarios:

[1/2 edited out because of their impossibility/improbability because I am the bodyguard]

3. scum chose 2 powers.
In that case, e's claim would have been quite dangerous as scum (50% chance of being counterclaimed). So I'm inclined to trust e's claim. Then two other claims must be false. Who is telling the truth here? Definitely not ashersky. Jimmmmm is possible, with Walrus trying to grab towncred by lynching his partner. If Walrus was town here, I don't think Jimmmm and ash would have pulled this knowing one PR is still out there. So yes, in this case Jimmmmm has to be the one to tell the truth.

4. scum chose 3 powers
This means we probably have either one fakeclaim and ashersky is lying or one PR still unclaimed and the scenario of 3.

Jimmmmmm- Original claim.  Intent to lynch Ash

Ashersky- Claims Roleblocker.  If scum that believes the claim, why come out against Jimmmmm here?  You know you are trading Goon for town PR at best.  Seems like a silly immediate claim.  I would have tried to fight the case some, but maybe Ash was looking ahead and knew it would be hard for him to survive without a claim of some sort.  So he claims roleblocker.  but,

My hesitant town read came from the fact that I roleblocked Jimmmmm last night and a kill still happened.  That made him at least slightly less likely to be scum in my opinion, but not enough to clear him.

A roleblocker doesn't actually stop a night kill, does it?  My reading about roleblockers on MafiaWiki seem to show that they do not stop a kill unless that person is the very last member of the mafia?  It might stop a JOAT from using strongman, but the kill would still happen because of the other members of the mafia.  But if that is the case wouldn't Ash already know because he is a vet?  Confusing to me.

Walrus- Counterclaims Ash.  Believable to me.  Especially if Ash was wrong about roleblockers in general.  I think that the real role blocker would figure out exactly what his role was.  Now if walrus is scum, this claim is really interesting.  Bold scum maneuver to gain town credit as the roleblocker, then ride it to the end.  "blocking scum" and such.  Interesting

[2.71828.....]

Does a roleblocker prevent a NK?

[Teproc]

It does.

Welcome to Mafia and the Chocolate Factory, X. You are the Roleblocker. You have the following abilities:
Each night you may target a player. They will be prevented from performing any actions for the night.
Please confirm via PM by stating your role.

(quoted from the OP)

[Teproc]

And I'm fairly certain the strongman trumps the Roleblocker. Again, from the OP :

Welcome to Mafia and the Chocolate Factory, X. You are the Mafia JOAT. You have the following abilities:
- Once during any night you may use a ninja kill. This kill will be unable to be tracked.
Once during any night you may use a strongman kill. This kill will unable to be blocked by any method.

[2.71828.....]

It does.

Welcome to Mafia and the Chocolate Factory, X. You are the Roleblocker. You have the following abilities:
Each night you may target a [single] player. They will be prevented from performing any actions for the night.
Please confirm via PM by stating your role.

(quoted from the OP)

you roleblock one scum.  there are two more scum out there.  I could be totally off on this, but this is from MafiaWiki on roleblockers.  Seems to imply that kills will continue until one scum is left. 

if the Mafia's kill goes through, whoever was blocked that Night isn't the last Mafioso

[2.71828.....]

And I'm fairly certain the strongman trumps the Roleblocker. Again, from the OP :

Welcome to Mafia and the Chocolate Factory, X. You are the Mafia JOAT. You have the following abilities:
- Once during any night you may use a ninja kill. This kill will be unable to be tracked.
Once during any night you may use a strongman kill. This kill will unable to be blocked by any method.

yeah, you are correct there.  only a hider and commuter are safe from strongman, and we have neither of these. 

[ashersky]

It does.

Welcome to Mafia and the Chocolate Factory, X. You are the Roleblocker. You have the following abilities:
Each night you may target a [single] player. They will be prevented from performing any actions for the night.
Please confirm via PM by stating your role.

(quoted from the OP)

you roleblock one scum.  there are two more scum out there.  I could be totally off on this, but this is from MafiaWiki on roleblockers.  Seems to imply that kills will continue until one scum is left. 

if the Mafia's kill goes through, whoever was blocked that Night isn't the last Mafioso

There were multiple scum alive on N1.  If I had targeted the scum member who had performed the kill, and the kill was not strongman, it would not have gone through.

I don't see hwo you are confused here.  But you should know I'm not.  I've played/modded enough games here to know how a roleblocker works.

Jimmmmm was either the strongman killer on N1, or he did not perform the kill.

[2.71828.....]

There were multiple scum alive on N1.  If I had targeted the scum member who had performed the kill, and the kill was not strongman, it would not have gone through.

I don't see hwo you are confused here.  But you should know I'm not.  I've played/modded enough games here to know how a roleblocker works.

Jimmmmm was either the strongman killer on N1, or he did not perform the kill.

Exactly.  I assumed you would know the setup and how the NKs work.  Which is why I am confused as to why you gave Jimmmmm town points because the NK went through.  You were just assuming that he would be the scum who performed the NK?  scum can't have multiple people say "I want to kill that person tonight" and as long as one of them is not roleblocked the kill will go through?  So why did a NK going through make Jimmmmmm slightly less scummy to you?

[manda2014]

FINALS.

ARE.

DONE.

Aka now I can read. about to leave for the Hobbit premiere but I'll be reading slash posting (some) from my phone.

[ashersky]

There were multiple scum alive on N1.  If I had targeted the scum member who had performed the kill, and the kill was not strongman, it would not have gone through.

I don't see hwo you are confused here.  But you should know I'm not.  I've played/modded enough games here to know how a roleblocker works.

Jimmmmm was either the strongman killer on N1, or he did not perform the kill.

Exactly.  I assumed you would know the setup and how the NKs work.  Which is why I am confused as to why you gave Jimmmmm town points because the NK went through.  You were just assuming that he would be the scum who performed the NK?  scum can't have multiple people say "I want to kill that person tonight" and as long as one of them is not roleblocked the kill will go through?  So why did a NK going through make Jimmmmmm slightly less scummy to you?

Because it proved he did NOT kill anyone.  That makes his less likely to be scum than, say, the person who did the kill.  I don't see how you cannot understand this.

I don't make ICs.  Even if there was no kill at all, it wouldn't have made Jimmmmm 100% scum, because they could have shot their traitor or whatever.  But a blocked Jimmmmm not stopping the kill meant that someone other than Jimmmmm is scum.  That reduced the chances of Jimmmmm being scum by some percentage.

[2.71828.....]

There were multiple scum alive on N1.  If I had targeted the scum member who had performed the kill, and the kill was not strongman, it would not have gone through.

I don't see hwo you are confused here.  But you should know I'm not.  I've played/modded enough games here to know how a roleblocker works.

Jimmmmm was either the strongman killer on N1, or he did not perform the kill.

Exactly.  I assumed you would know the setup and how the NKs work.  Which is why I am confused as to why you gave Jimmmmm town points because the NK went through.  You were just assuming that he would be the scum who performed the NK?  scum can't have multiple people say "I want to kill that person tonight" and as long as one of them is not roleblocked the kill will go through?  So why did a NK going through make Jimmmmmm slightly less scummy to you?

Because it proved he did NOT kill anyone.  That makes his less likely to be scum than, say, the person who did the kill.  I don't see how you cannot understand this.

I don't make ICs.  Even if there was no kill at all, it wouldn't have made Jimmmmm 100% scum, because they could have shot their traitor or whatever.  But a blocked Jimmmmm not stopping the kill meant that someone other than Jimmmmm is scum.  That reduced the chances of Jimmmmm being scum by some percentage.

ok. You are correct. Mathematically. But it is not by such a huge percentage that would influence me in thinking he is even slightly more towny. I just found out interesting that you would follow this line of reasoning.

[ashersky]

As a town PR, I always use my results to help shape my reads.  I'm the only one who knows them (unless I block someone from doing something) and I need to get something out of it.  Roleblocker is that type of role that isn't awesome, but can really help out in the late game.

[WalrusMcFishSr]

As a *real* town PR, I do the same. Which is why I've backed off on Robz somewhat despite the fact that he was a D1 scumread for me.

Of course I know my results are not perfect, which is why he didn't make the top of my chum list, but I did take it into account.

[manda2014]

Eek. Ahhh. What to think. I was pretty convinced ash had fake claimed as I was skimming it but now I'm just not sure.

[Twistedarcher]

Vote Count 2.5

ashersky (4): Jimmmmm, Teproc, Walrus, Voltaire {L-2}
Jimmmmm (2): mcmc, Ashersky

Not Voting (4): manda, 2.7, faust, Robz

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
Day2 will end December 15 at 6:00 pm forum time.

[Jimmmmm]

Jimmmmm claims Goon Cop, and accuses Ash of being scum: "Ok, that is reasonable.  Seems like a really early claim though.  Doesn't feel quite right but lets see what happens."

Why early? It was only a few days before deadline.

reading....reading....getting more convinced that Jimmmm is scum.

Why? I mean, I thought I was doing an okay job of dealing with my investigation result. I pounced on something ash said really early, kept on it, wouldn't let it go, asked everyone for opinions and then gave my result. ash did some things that I genuinely think are scummy, but people just say "Oh that's just ash". And they call me scummy without really giving solid reasons why. I'm pretty much an open book at this point - engage with me. Tell me why you think I'm scummy. Obviously ash is being lynched now because of Walrus' counterclaim, but I feel like without that ash would win simply for having a crazy meta and people simply dismissing what he says as being "just ash".